Russia 1
Russia continues their priority of advancing towards Kupyansk but made no confirmed progress over the last four days.
Russia 2
After stalling for several days, Russian forces finally advanced west of Kovalivka on Friday.
Russia 3
Russia continues their attacks on Avdiivka and Marinka but have made no confirmed advances over the last four days.
Ukraine 1
Ukraine continues to make progress in liberating Bakhmut having stopped Russian advances in the north and even advancing themselves closer to Zaliznyanske. In the south, Ukrainian forces continue to battle for Klishchiivka and have made progress advancing in the settlement. The loss of Bakhmut would by a huge psychological defeat for Russia as it is the only real gain they have made in a year against fighting Ukraine. Russia must defend the city to maintain support back home.
Ukraine 2
Ukraine continued their offensive in this region, but not at the level they had before liberating Urozhaine. Ukraine is now focusing on the hold they have punched through Russia’s first line of defense in Ukraine 3 sector. No advances have been made in this sector.
Ukraine 3
Ukrainian forces have almost liberated Robotyne with only two homes still under control of Russian troops. The capture of Robotyne is significant as Ukrainian forces now have an opening to attack further without a massive mine field to clear. The target is Tokmak. From Tokmak, Ukraine will be within firing range of all occupied Kherson and can continue their drive to the Sea of Azov and cut off Russia’s land bridge to Crimea. By taking Robotyne, Ukrainian forces are now only 1.25 miles from Russia’s second line of defense consisting of anti-tank ditches and dragon’s teeth anti-tank obstacles. But Ukraine must first widen their penetration to prevent Russian forces from cutting off a too-narrow thrust. So, Tokmak will have to wait for now and the next objective will be Verbove (7 miles east of Robotyne). Instead of coming down on Verbove only through the minefields, by taking Robotyne Ukrainian forces can now bypass those minefields by pushing farther south of Robotyne to Novopokropivka (3 miles south of Robotyne on the T0408 highway). Then they can move east behind Verbove while also still slowly moving through the minefields toward Verbove from the north. Another benefit of taking Robotyne is it deprives Russian forces of positions near the western flank of the Ukrainian breach and gives Ukraine more maneuver space to launch offensive operations against the Russian second line of defense.
Ukrainian forces have made limited progress on advancing towards Verbove since taking most of Robotyne. There have been reports of small Ukrainian reconnaissance forces already attacking Verbove from the south, but that does not mean their main forces have made it there yet. Ukraine also struck the Russian command center in Tokmak on Thursday.
Ukraine 4
Ukraine continues to make limited forays across the Dnipro River to test for weaknesses as Russian troops are being redeployed to Ukraine 3 sector to defend the breaches Ukraine is making along their defensive line there. Ukraine is looking for an opening to start a new thrust behind Russia’s second line of defense.
Russian forces have suffered significant losses in defending the islands they control in the Dnipro River. One commander attempted to withdraw from an island as his troops were being massacred, but his superiors stopped the evacuation, and dismissed the commander and his subordinate officers.
Wagner Group Financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and founder Dmitry Utkin were killed when their plane was shot down by two S-300 missiles when returning to Russia from Africa. Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted him dead for leading an insurrection against the Russian Ministry of Defense but dared not turn him into a martyr. Instead, Putin and his cronies began to chip away at Prigozhin and Wagner Group to weaken them so as not to be threatened when he did choose to take his revenge. The strategy was to drain Wagner Group of funds so that they could not pay their soldiers forcing them to leave Wagner Group and join the Russian military. First, Putin refused to make payments to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko as promised in exchange for exiling Wagner Group to Belarus. Lukashenko did not have the funds either. Prigozhin had traveled to Russia to take advantage of some coups and offer his troops for protection in exchange for lucrative enterprises and cash. But Putin had already met with African leaders and threatened to cut off all Russian aid to any country that hired Wagner Group. Unable to pay the soldiers, they have been abandoning in growing numbers, making Prigozhin irrelevant and safe for the killing. It also sent a clear message to any other opposition planning an insurrection. But to be safe, Putin has denied any government involvement in the missile strikes against Prigozhin’s plane and has ordered an investigation on what caused the explosion.
Putin is actively running an information campaign to dissuade the Wagner Group from taking revenge against the Russian military for the death of their leaders. Putin held a eulogy for Prigozhin on Thursday referring to him as a loyal subordinate and hero of Russia. Putin acknowledged that he had made “serious mistakes” but that Putin had forgiven him because of their three decades of friendship. Putin claimed that Prigozhin’s mutiny was not aimed at him, but at the leadership of the Ministry of Defense. The Wagner Council of Commanders have notably been silent and not releasing a public statement condemning the attack.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is also forced to walk a fine line as his attempt to shame Putin by granting asylum to Wagner Group in Belarus has now backfired. But at the same time, he does not want to anger the 10,000 Wagner Group forces that are now in his country. Lukashenko made a public statement to show he was still the sovereign leader of Belarus and that Wagner Group forces were still welcome in his country. He made no accusations concerning the assassination of Prigozhin but did share that he had warned Prigozhin against building his power base in Africa which might make him a target.
Ukraine continues to strike targets far behind the line. Ukraine destroyed a Russian S-400 air defense system in Crimea near Olenivka last Wednesday. Not only was the system destroyed, but many air defense missiles were destroyed, and several Russian personnel killed. Footage confirms the strike, but not the complete destruction of the site. But most disheartening to Russian forces, was that Ukraine was able to penetrate the air space with a drone to record the hit. With this knowledge, we can expect Ukraine to beef up its drone attacks in Crimea.
Ukraine also launched a drone attack against Moscow for the sixth day in a row. Russian air defenses intercepted all three drones but one of them still crashed in the city’s central business district smashing windows and creating a fire.
Drone attack on Moscow
Russia also conducted a series of drone and missile strikes across Ukraine in the early morning hours on Wednesday, which was the national holiday in Ukraine called Flag Day. Nine missiles and 20 drones were reported having been launched. Eleven of the drones were intercepted. The most devastating attack was against the port of Izmail where the grain infrastructure was hit destroying 13,000 tons of grain intended for Egypt and Romania, but thankfully no one was injured. That brings the total amount of grain destroyed since Russia pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative to 270,000 tons. This attack will damage Russia’s relationship with Africa that they are so hard trying to develop.
Grain Storage Destroyed at Izmail Port
Russia also conducted terroristic artillery fire against civilians on Wednesday. In northern Donetsk region, three retirees were killed while sitting on their porch in Torske, and another was injured in nearby Zakitne. Near Sumy on the Russian border, another home was shelled injuring four people in Seredyno-Buda.
Russia shells home in Torske
And Russia also dropped two bombs in Kherson in the pre-dawn hours striking a kindergarten and surrounding residential structures. Six people were injured in the attack. At the same time, Russia orchestrated an artillery barrage against the center of Kherson damaging residential building, shop, power lines, and a gas pipeline.
Kindergarten struck in Kherson
A second ship full of grain flying the flag of Liberia left the port of Odesa on Saturday heading for Varna, Bulgaria. The ship returned to the Odesa port a few hours later for unknown reasons, but stated they still intend to sail to Varna.
The BRICS Summit has begun in South Africa on Thursday with Putin giving a video address to his allies in attendance. BRICS is an alignment of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. In his address, Putin attempted to turn BRICS into an anti-Western competitor to the G7 and G20 nations. But his allies made it clear they are not interested in that. Brazil was the most vocal saying he would oppose such a shift in the purpose of BRICS. And South Africa also made it clear that they are not anti-West. But, nevertheless, invitations were given to Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates to join BRICS in 2024.
On Thursday, Ukraine followed up its successful attack of the Russian air defense system in Crimea with a limited raid landing special ops troops near Olenivka and raised the Ukrainian flag after skirmishing with Russian troops and destroying two early warning radars. They then left leaving Russia shocked that Ukraine could successfully land forces on Crimea and engage Russian troops. Russia has left Crimea nearly defenseless as they are frantically deploying troops to defend their defensive line to the north with Ukraine.
Ukraine special-ops destroy two radar systems in Crimea
Russia claimed to have destroyed a Ukrainian air defense system in Mykolaiv on Thursday in response to Ukraine’s confirmed destruction of the Russian air defense system the day before in Crimea. Russia did conduct a missile strike on Dnipro injuring seven civilians. Four missiles were launched and three made it through the air defense system striking transportation infrastructure in the city.
Russian missile strike on Dnipro city
Not letting up against Crimea, Ukraine launched 42 drones at targets in Crimea on Friday, Ukraine’s largest drone attack to date. Russia claimed they shot them all down, but residents of Perevalne posted on social media reports of explosions of a nearby Russian base. Ukraine claimed that several Russian soldiers were killed, and an ammunition depot was destroyed.
Crimean residents post explosions in Crimea of attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet
Russia launched four missiles and a drone at the Odesa port, but all of them were intercepted.
The Pentagon was embarrassed by the Pentagon spokesperson General Patrick Ryder pulled back reports of the Pentagon doubting that Ukraine will be victorious in the war against Russia. Perhaps they also see the importance of the fall of Robotyne and the lack of Russian reserves to plug up the holes that Ukraine creates in the Russian defense.
The U.S. announced they will begin training Ukrainian pilots and personnel how to fly and maintain F-16s starting next month. They will begin with English-language training at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio, Texas. And then they will head to Morris Air National Guard Base in Arizona for the actual training.
Reuters somehow got a hold of Russian customs records that show Russia is successfully circumventing sanctions and importing weapons through Tajikistan, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, China, and Kyrgyzstan. Russian Ural Airlines is the main conduit for these imports.