Russia 1 – Kupyansk/Svatove Line
Russian forces have made some confirmed advances in this sector based on geolocated video footage. They gained territory to the northeast of Synkivka (6.25 miles NE of Kupyansk) and have moved west of Lyman Pershyi (7.5 miles NE of Kupyansk). They also claim to have moved south closer to Petropavlivka (4.5 miles E of Kupyansk). Because of these advances, Ukraine quickly evacuated another 2500 people from the Kupyansk region. And in addition, another 1500 fled on their own accord. That leaves around 8000 Ukrainians still living in the region.
Russia 2 – Svatove/Kreminna Line
Russian forces have made some marginal advances west of Svatove. Geolocated footage confirms that Russian forces have advanced west of Raihorodka just north of Serhiivka (7.5 miles W of Svatove). Russian forces also claim to have advance another 1500 feet closer to Novojehorivka (9.25 miles SW of Svatove). And farther south, Russian forces claimed to have made some advances towards Bilohorivka and Berestove (20 miles S of Kreminna).
Russia 3 – Avdiivka/Marinka/Vuhledar Line
Russian forces made no claimed or confirmed advances in this sector. But on the contrary, Ukrainian forces made some significant gains in this area without even trying hard. It is not officially part of Ukraine’s counteroffensive but fighting in Opytne (2.5 miles S of Avdiivka) resulted in 200 Russian soldiers attempting to make a hasty retreat. Russian barrier troops opened fire with artillery to stop their withdrawal killing 27 of their own soldiers and injuring another 34 with half of these injured including the loss of limbs. Ukraine was able to move farther into Opytne and drive farther south towards Pisky (6 miles SW of Avdiivka). (Watch Video)
Ukrainian forces also made some confirmed advances north of Avdiivka advancing east of the railroad line north of Krasnohorivka (5.5 miles N of Avdiivka).
Ukraine 1 – Liberate Bakhmut
The biggest news of the week was the liberation of Andriivka (5.5 miles SW of Bakhmut) on Friday. Ukrainian troops had surrounded the settlement which had a prewar population of only 100. They destroyed the Russian 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade that was defending the settlement. (Watch Video).
Ukrainian forces also advanced in other regions south of Bakhmut. Geolocated footage shows them moving farther into Klishchiivka (3.75 miles SW of Bakhmut) and will soon liberate this city as well. They also moved north of Kurdyumivka (8 miles SW of Bakhmut) and southwest of Mayorsk on the outskirts of Horlivka (13 miles SW of Bakhmut). Ukraine also claimed to advance toward Predtechyne (10 miles SW of Bakhmut), Kurdyumivka (8 miles SW of Bakhmut), and Dachne (11.5 miles SW of Bakhmut).
After having been stalled north of Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces are on the move again there having confirmed advances on Rozdolivka (8 miles NE of Bakhmut). Ukraine also claimed to have forced Russian forces out of Minkivka (9.5 miles NW of Bakhmut) and Dubovo-Vasylivka (3.5 miles NW of Bakhmut).
Ukraine 2 – Drive to Berdyansk from Velyka Novosilka
There were no confirmed advances by either side in this sector. But Ukraine claimed to advance closer to Novomaiorske (11 miles SE of Velyka Novosilka) and Russia claimed to have retaken lost positions near Priyutne (10 miles SW of Velyka Novosilka). Russian Commander Vasily Popov who led the Russia 247th Regiment defending the sector was killed in combat.
Ukraine 3 – Drive to Melitopol from Orikhiv
Ukraine made some confirmed advances south and west of Robotyne (6.25 miles S of Orikhiv) and claimed to have even advance southeast of the recently liberated community. Ukrainian forces also made confirmed advances with infantry east towards Verbove (12.5 miles SE or Orikhiv) but will find it hard to hold these positions without heavy weaponry that cannot yet get past Russia’s second defense line full of anti-tank obstacles. Ukraine also claimed to have made some advances near Novodanylivka (2.5 miles S of Orikhiv).
Ukraine 4 – Liberate Eastern Kherson
Russian sources claim that Ukraine is focused on recapturing the islands in the Dnipro River. There is great concern amongst Russian forces of Ukraine attempting to cross the Dnipro River as Russia has moved most of their troops to defend the Ukrainian counteroffensive near Robotyne.
September 11, 2023
Ukrainian special forces restored Ukrainian control over the Boyko Towers gas production drilling platforms off the coast of Crimea which Russia was using to refuel helicopter runs and to house radar units. Originally the Boyko Towers were drilling for oil near Odesa, but Russian forces captured it back in 2015 when they took Crimea and dragged it back closer to Crimea to use as an observation post. (Watch Video)
Russia claimed to have shot down two Ukrainian military drones close to the border in Belgorod region. The falling debris fell on and damaged some roadways, but there were no casualties.
Russia conducted a series of missile and drone attacks in the early morning hours. It is not known how many drones were launched, but thirteen were intercepted. Ten missiles were also launched against targets in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (where I am now writing this report). It is not known how many were intercepted.
Russian Lieutenant General Andrey Mordvichev, the commander who led the assault on Mariupol, said in an interview that he believes that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is just the beginning and will serve as a steppingstone for a wider conflict with Europe.
Not surprisingly, President Putin’s United Russian party won most elections throughout Russia and the occupied territories of Ukraine. Of the twenty regions of Russia, the United Party overwhelmingly won thirteen of them (72% of the vote) and is leading in another six. In the four occupied regions of Ukraine, United Russia party won between 74-83% of the vote.
The United States and Armenia have begun joint military exercises called Eagle Partner 2023. The goal of these exercises is to prepare Armenia to participate in international peacekeeping missions. The exercises, which will be conducted through September 20, involve 85 US personnel and 175 Armenian personnel. Russia has expressed their displeasure of their ally conducting such exercises with the US.
Russian opposition outlet iStories reported that the Russian National Guard has sent out letters to former Wagner Group soldiers that they will receive a full pardon if they serve in the Guard.
Russian milbloggers are not only complaining about the poor conditions and weak supplies of Russian troops in Ukraine but are now also publishing complaints by Russian soldiers assigned to guard the border between Ukraine and Russia. The evidence continues to mount that Russia is not able to conduct this war for much longer without a major change such as general mobilization or the use of nuclear arms.
Ukraine intelligence released a phone call intercepted from a Russian soldier defending Crimea voicing his fear of a suspected invasion of 150,000 Ukrainian troops of the Crimea peninsula. The fact that the tape was released by Ukraine suggests it is not true, but that Ukraine wanted to show publicly that Russian troops are living in fear. Zelensky has stated that he does not feel Ukraine will need to invade Crimea, but that as they approach the peninsula from the north, that Russia will simply abandon it.
Russian milblogger Gennady Dubovoy, who had been critical of the Russian government’s treatment of the Wagner Group, was killed when hit by a car as he crossed the street in occupied Donetsk city. Death by car accident is a common way Russian opposition is eliminated. It was a clear signal to other milbloggers to self-censor their war reporting.
Ukrainian Intelligence also released a report that claims the number of Russian soldiers who have contacted Ukraine for the purpose of surrendering has increased by 70% since Russian helicopter pilot Maxim Kuzminov had flown and surrendered himself and his transport to Ukrainian forces last August 23.
Ukrainian soldier Vasyl Dudynets became a national hero when he volunteered to conduct what could have been a kamikaze mission that delivered a massive blow to Russian forces. Ukrainian forces loaded a captured Russian tank with explosives and Dudynets drove it up to Russian forces somewhere on the front lines, leapt from the tank, ran a safe distance, and detonated the deadly cargo remotely. If the tank had been hit Dudynets would surely have been killed from the resulting explosion. The mission was a success as the Russian forces who had been attacking from that position were now silent. And Dudynets earned an honorable discharge to return home to his family. When asked why he volunteered, he said he would rather be killed in action than eventually wounded and become a burden to his family.
Ukraine also humiliated Russia by destroying one of their “invincible” T-90 tanks worth $4.5 million with three off-the-shelf drones that together cost $500 in the battle for Bakhmut. (Watch Video)
The US government announced they are considering ending their contract with Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites after Musk admitted that he had refused to allow Ukraine to use the system to attack Russian ships in the Black Sea.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock made a surprise visit, the fourth since the Russian invasion in 2022, to Kyiv to voice unwavering German support for Ukraine in her was against Russia. She also praised Ukraine’s progress on the path to EU membership.
Italy has pledged to rebuild the historical monuments destroyed in Odesa and sent a delegation to that city to inspect the damage.
North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un boarded a train from Pyongyang heading to Vladivostok, Russia where he will meet with President Putin.
September 12, 2023
Kremlin officials are again arguing over whether Russia should conduct a mobilization drive to add more troops into the war against Ukraine. Russia military experts suggest around 420,000 new recruits are needed to win this war. But current crypto mobilization, which relies on back-channel coercions to recruit troops, is only expected to bring in 175,000 new recruits. With presidential elections still coming, Putin has resisted a general mobilization order.
North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un arrived in Russia and met with Russian Minister of Natural Resources and Ecology Alexander Kozlov when he entered Russia by train. He is scheduled to meet with President Putin in Vladivostok in the coming days to discuss North Korea supplying weapons to Russia in their war against Ukraine.
37 Ukrainian children from occupied Kherson Oblast were forcibly taken to Russia on a “recreational vacation” to receive medical and psychological assistance
Reports of voter fraud started coming in concerning the recent Russian elections. Less than 5% of voters showed up at polling stations in Moscow, so the other 38% who voted in the elections tried to vote remotely. But many of them complained that when they tried to vote online, they received a message that they had already voted. The government claimed that 80% of the voters in Moscow voted for Putin’s United Party, but only 29% of those who voted said in a poll that they had voted for the United Party. In occupied regions of Ukraine, videos were released of voters being dragged to the poll stations by armed soldiers who stood over them watching for whom they would vote.
September 13, 2023
Ukraine launched ten missiles and three water drones against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet docked in occupied Sevastopol. Three of the missiles hit their targets creating great damage to the port. A Russian troop landing ship was destroyed and a Kilo class submarine was heavily damaged in the attack which will shut down the port for days until the debris can be cleared. 24 military personnel were injured in the attack.
Ukraine also launched a drone that struck the Redkinsky Chemical Research Plant in Tver Oblast (Russia). The drone was shot down, but the debris hit a chemical tank causing an explosion that damaged windows in the facility.
Russia conducted another series of drone strikes against Sumy and Odesa Oblasts in the early morning hours. Ukraine shot down 34 of the 45 drones which mainly targeted port infrastructure in Izmail and Reni. Seven civilians were injured in the attacks. Romania even sounded the air raid alarms and urged their citizens to seek shelter during the attack.
Russia conducted an artillery attack against a high school in Antonivka, Kherson region in the early hours before it was open. The building was damaged but there were no casualties.
September 14, 2023
Russia claimed to have shot down six military drones over the city of Bryansk, Russia. Ukraine made no claims of such an attack.
Russia also claimed to have destroyed several water drones targeting the Sevastopol military port, but Ukraine claims the attack was successful damaging two Russian patrol ships.
Ukraine did launch another drone attack against Crimea destroying a Russian air defense system near Yevpatoria.
Russia launched 22 drones at targets in Mykolaiv, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Sumy Oblasts. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 17 of them. Most of the damage was restricted to port facilities in Mykolaiv used for transporting grain.
President Putin and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un met earlier than had been reported at a Russian spaceport 620 miles south of Vladivostok. Putin downplayed the meeting in fear that Russia would trigger secondary international sanctions by trading with North Korea which is under international sanctions of their own. The United States threatened to expand sanctions of Russia if evidence emerges of them trading with North Korea.
The US did expand sanctions against international entities that violate international sanctions and continue to trade with Russia. 150 entities were added to the US sanction list including five Turkish companies and Turkish citizen.
The Russian Ministry of Defense blocked the landing of Wagner Group forces rotating out of Africa from landing at their airfield in Syria. Wagner Group was forced to make a deal with Syria to land at one of their airbases. This shows that Wagner Group is still considered a threat to the Russian military.
Ukrainian partisans conducted a drone attack on a Russian passport office and a radio tower in occupied Enerhodar.
The European Parliament called on the International Criminal Court to issue an arrest warrant for Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko for being complicit in the war crimes of deporting Ukrainian children from occupied territories.
Russia expelled two US diplomats from Russia under accusations of illegally maintaining contact with an arrested US citizen.
September 15, 2023
Russian launched 17 drones in the direction of Khmelnitsky Oblast, but all of them were shot down. It is not known what the intended targets were.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian dictator Aleksander Lukashenko met in Sochi, Russia to discuss economic issues and Putin’s meeting with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.
General Sergei Surovikin, who had been reassigned because of his friendship with the Wagner Group, is now receiving a chance for redemption. He has been sent to Algeria to try and bring the remaining Wagner Group forces there under the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Russia sent twenty more Ukrainian children from occupied Kherson region to a camp in Primorske Krai for an unspecified period of time.
Ukrainian partisans destroyed two Russian trucks with car bombs in occupied Henichesk, Kherson Oblast.
North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un visited a Russian military factory in Komsomolsk-on-Amur supposedly to choose what he wants in exchange for providing millions of artillery rounds to Russia.
September 16, 2023
So far, four ships have made it through the Black Sea Corridor defended by Ukraine and NATO allies reaching Turkey. But for the first time, a ship has arrived in Ukraine along that corridor. The ship flies the flag of Palau and will soon load 20,000 tons of grain for export to Africa and Asia.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un in Vladivostok where Kim toured factories that produce strategic bombers, fighter-bombers, missile carriers, anti-ship missile system, and frigates. It is unlikely that Russia will give such weaponry to North Korea because of sanctions but can share the technology allowing Kim to produce it in North Korea.