Summary: Ukraine made two significant announcements this week. The first is that there will be no winter break from fighting and Ukraine will continue the counteroffensive, albeit at a slower pace. And Zelensky has held a forum with weapons producers about moving their production to Ukraine. Zelensky is fully aware that Western funding of Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression will continue to dwindle, and he is looking at building Ukraine’s own weapon production.
Russia 1 – Kupyansk/Svatove Line
After weeks of relative quiet as Russian troops redeployed to the Ukraine 3 sector and fresh and untrained troops took their positions, Russia has once again begun a push to take Kupyansk, although their troops are armed mostly with guns from the 1950s and are not expected to advance far. There were no confirmed Russian advances, but Russian sources claim that Russian forces advanced a mere 1500 feet closer to Kupyansk. They also claimed that Russian forces advanced another 3000 feet near the Yahidne/Ivanivka/Kotlyarivka triangle (14 miles SE of Kupyansk).
Russia 2 – Svatove/Kreminna Line
Russian forces have marginally advanced southwest of Kreminna. Russian troops also advanced towards Makiyivka (15 miles SW of Svatove).
Russia 3 – Avdiivka/Marinka/Vuhledar Line
Russian forces have made some confirmed marginal advances towards Avdiivka from the south. Russian sources claimed that Russian forces have made some marginal advances near Sieverne (4 miles W of Avdiivka), Keramik (8.5 miles N of Avdiivka), and Stepove (4 miles NW of Avdiivka) as they continue their attempt to encircle Avdiivka. There is no confirmation of these advances though. Russian sources also claimed to have had some success in taking a little more of Marinka.
Ukrainian forces have captured a strategic position near Nevelske (9.5 miles SW of Avdiivka) threatening a crossroad near Pisky (6 miles SW of Avdiivka).
Ukraine 1 – Liberate Bakhmut
Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances east and northeast of Andriivka (7 miles S of Bakhmut). Russian sources claim that Russia has retaken Kurdyumivka and is fighting to take back control of Klishchiivka and Andriivka, but there is no evidence for these claims. Russian forces are taking huge losses trying to defend the railway line east of Klishchiivka at any cost which is the supply line for their troops in Bakhmut. Ukrainian troops have advanced within 131 feet from the rail line and reportedly advanced north towards Bakhmut.
Ukraine 2 – Drive to Berdyansk from Velyka Novosilka
Ukrainian forces have advanced northwest of Novomaiorske (11 miles SE of Velyka Novosilka).
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces have retaken some lost positions around Priyutne (11 miles SW of Velyka Novosilka) and Urozhaine.
Ukraine 3 – Drive to Melitopol from Orikhiv
Intense fighting is occurring among three trenches 0.5 mile south of Robotyne (8.5 miles S of Orikhiv). Control of the trenches has been going back and forth over the last three weeks, but Ukrainian forces currently holding them. The westernmost trench is the most strategic as it connects to underground tunnels used to supply troops. Ukrainian forces have also made advances northwest of Robotyne and east of Novoprokopivka (11 miles S or Orikhiv).
Geolocated video also confirms that Russian forces have advanced towards Robotyne from the south and northwest of Verbove (13 miles SE of Orikhiv).
Ukraine 4 – Liberate Eastern Kherson
Ukrainian forces continue to bolster their foothold on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River and the islands in the river delta.
Sunday, October 1, 2023
Ukraine fired two missiles at occupied Crimea, but both were shot down. They also launched four military drones against a missile factory in Smolensk, Russia, with three of them hitting their targets causing significant damage to the production capacities of the military enterprise.
Russia launched 30 military drones against Ukrainian targets. Ukraine intercepted 16 of them. Russia also launched 16 aerial bombs hitting civilian and infrastructure targets in Kherson.
Russia officially launched their October conscription cycle with the goal of conscripted 130,000 personnel.
A Russian unit instructor claimed that Lieutenant General Andrey Sychevoy had been removed as the commander of Russian troops around Bakhmut due to his poor performance of conducting counterattacks in the region. It was not known that Sychevoy was back in a command position after he had been removed back in September 2022 when he commanded the Russian troops in the Kharkiv region who suffered defeat at the fast-advancing Ukrainian troops.
The Smer-RD party won the elections in Slovakia receiving 23.3% of the vote. The Smer-RD ran on a pro-Russian platform and vowed to end all military support to Ukraine. But without a clear majority, they will have to form a coalition government.
Monday, October 2, 2023
Russian forces conducted a small-scale drone strike against Ukrainian grain and port infrastructure launching seven drones, of which four were shot down by Ukrainian air defense. Russia also conducted an airstrike against Kherson Oblast damaging a hospital and critical infrastructure.
A prominent Russian milblogger and a Telegram channel praised Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) Commander Colonel Mikhail Teplinsky for saving the Russian 31st Guards VDV Brigade before being stripped of his command. The report claims that the late 31st VDV Commander Colonel Andrei Kondrashkin had complained to Vostok Battalion Commander Alexander Khodakovsky that his troops had suffered personnel losses and thus morale had fallen to a critical level. Kondrashkin had just been ordered to have his troops make an offensive attack while he knew his troops were suffering a critical lack of motivation. Kondrashkin reportedly advised him that he had two choices – either lead the attack and waste his troops or protest command at the expense of his career. Khodakovsky never got to make that choice as he was killed in battle shortly after the conversation. That is when Teplinsky stepped in and saved the brigade by taking them out of the combat costing him his career. The purpose of this report was to support Teplinsky’s decision as the Russian 7th and 76th VDV divisions are now facing the same situation and Teplinsky is no longer in a position to save them.
The Wagner Group forces are being split between the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) forces and the Russian National Guard. Andrey Troshev is leading those Wagner Group forces that have signed contracts with the MoD and are now back in Bakhmut defending as part of the Russian military. But the bulk of Wagner Group forces wanting to keep their identity and autonomy, have signed an agreement to come under the Russian National Guard while keeping their symbols and callsigns. They will be under the leadership of Pavel Prigozhin, the son of former Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin who was assassinated by Russian president Vladimir Putin for leading an insurrection.
Zaporizhia Oblast occupation governor Yevgeny Balitsky announced that over 300 Ukrainian children from his region have been transported to Moscow in violation of international law to educate them about the Russian culture.
EU foreign ministers gathered in Kyiv for a historic summit, the first time they have met outside of their borders. The decision to hold their summit in Kyiv was to express their solidarity and support of Ukraine.
Tuesday, October 3, 2023
Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone attacks against Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian air defenses downed 29 of 31 drones and one missile. An industrial enterprise was struck near Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise visit to Russian 1 sector to encourage and thank his troops for their defense of Ukraine.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu celebrated Russian armed formations operating in Ukraine 2 & 3 sectors who have conducted numerous counterattacks despite their heavy losses and ignored other formations that did not. The purpose of this celebration was to influence Russian commanders who value the lives of their troops over their military careers to sacrifice those lives in counterattacks that are meant to stall time rather than gain territory. The real battle for Russia is to hold out until Western support comes to an end, and then negotiate a peace settlement on their terms.
Reuters reported on the Russian MoD formation of Storm-Z units made up of soldiers who committed acts of disobedience such as holding back during attacks or drinking alcohol. These Storm-Z troops are then sent forward in counterattacks that are doomed to fail but will slow down the Ukrainian advances. One Storm-Z battalion lost 87.5% of their personnel during one operation around Bakhmut.
A Russian pilot turned himself in at the US Embassy in the United Arab Emirates and applied for asylum claiming that he is opposed to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He was on leave with his family at the time.
Armenia ratified the International Criminal Court’s Rome Statute which means they will now be obligated to arrest Russian President Vladimir Putin if he enters their country. Russia expressed their displeasure of this further distancing of Armenia from Russian influence.
Wednesday, October 4, 2023
Ukraine special forces landed on occupied Crimea overnight and engaged Russian troops and inflicted fire damage before retreating after completing their task.
Ukraine hit and damaged a Russian S-400 air defense system, the first strike against Russia’s best anti-aircraft system inside Russia.
Russia has transferred most of their Black Sea Fleet from the occupied port in Sevastopol, Crimea, back to the Russian port in Novorossiysk to safeguard them from constant Ukrainian attacks.
Thursday, October 5, 2023
Ukrainian forces conducted a massive drone attack on military weapon production in the southern Russian region of Kursk. One electrical substation was hit cutting off 67 Russian settlements from power.
Russian forces launched 29 military drones across Ukraine, of which 24 were intercepted by Ukrainian air defense. Russian forces also conducted a missile strike on the innocent village of Hroza, Kharkiv Oblast, that killed 51 villagers, representing 20% of the population of the settlement. 60 residents of the village had gathered to honor one of them who had just died. Children were included in those that were killed, the youngest being a six-year-old girl. This was not a blind strike, but someone informed Russia of the gathering of innocent Ukrainians and they chose to kill them all.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attended a summit of 50 European nations in Granada, Spain. Zelensky addressed them concerning the military situation in Ukraine and what Ukraine needs to continue to defend the West against Russia’s imperialistic intents. He also expounded on the numerous amounts of war crimes committed against Ukraine by Russia. In response, the European leaders vowed steadfast support for Ukraine but made it clear they will not be able to fully fill the funding gap left by the betrayal of the United States.
Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the 20th Valdai Discussion Club, an international think tank based in Moscow, presenting his false narrative that his invasion was the fault of the West for expanding NATO to its borders threatening Russia’s security. He also announced that Russia has completed testing the nuclear-power Burevestnik cruise missile and the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile. He threatened that Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons to any existential threat to Russia. But his most controversial statement was his bizarre explanation for the death of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claiming his plane was destroyed from an internal explosion probably caused by immature handling of grenades under the influence of a drug and alcohol binge. He also said that the Wagner Group was not a private army, as all private armies are illegal in Russia.
Occupied-Donetsk leader Pavel Gubarev said in an interview that when the war is over, many Ukrainians will find themselves in Russian territory. He claims that Russia has no ill-will towards Ukrainians, but Ukrainians within their occupied territory now hate Russia. He lamented that Russia cannot simply just kill them all as that would be genocide but suggested that Russia will have to set up re-education concentration camps for Ukrainians.
Occupied-Abkhazian President Aslan Bzhania announced that Russia will begin building a permanent naval base in Abkhazia, a region of Georgia that Russia has occupied since 2008.
Friday, October 6, 2023
Ukraine announced that they will continue the counter-offensive through the winter and not take a break. Although the advance will be slower due to inclement weather.
Russian forces conducted a drone strike against port, grain, and border infrastructure. Russia launched 33 drones and 25 of them were shot down by Ukrainian air defense. Port infrastructure and a granary was damaged along the Danube River on the border with Romania. The ferry crossing was also hit that connects Ukraine with Romania.
US President Joe Biden hinted that there may be another way to keep funding Ukraine during the 45-day freeze while Congress passes a budget. Biden suggested that the State Department has grant money they can provide to Ukraine to purchase US weapons.
Saturday, October 7, 2023
Ukraine launched a drone and missile strike against occupied Crimea. Russian air defenses completely repelled the attack.
Ukrainian partisans assassinated Vladimir Rostov, Secretary of the United Russia party in occupied Kherson, by car bomb.
Russia conducted a series of missile strikes throughout Ukraine striking port facilities, granaries, residential buildings, educational buildings, and other civil infrastructure.
Russia has closed all borders to Ukrainian citizens except an automotive transport on the border with Latvia and the Sheremetyevo Airport. Borders between occupied Ukraine and Russia remain open.
Russia has also begun denying medical treatment to all Ukrainian citizens in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast who do not obtain a Russian passport.
Hamas attacked Israel with Israel responding with a declaration of war. It is expected that Hezbollah will declare war against Israel soon as well. With the U.S. main ally in the world under attack, attention will shift from Ukraine to Israel at least in the short term. If the situation escalates and Iran becomes involved, the U.S. will be occupied in the Middle East for a longer period.