Summary: Ukraine was mostly on the defense this week as Russia launched a major attack to surround and capture Avdiivka. The attack failed and resulted in Russia’s worse land defeat of the war.
Russia 1 – Kupyansk/Svatove Line
Russia has increased its use of airpower in the sector and claims to have made advances near Lyman Pershyi (7.5 miles NE of Kupyansk), the Synkivka rail station (6.5 miles NE of Kupyansk), on the Tymkivka-Ivanivka line (13 miles SE of Kupyansk), and on the Orlyanka-Yahidne line (14.5 miles E of Kupyansk). They also have claimed to have taken strategic positions near Synkivka (6 miles NE of Kupyansk) and have begun advancing towards the city (a city they had falsely claimed to have captured a month ago). Russia also claims to have moved another mile closer towards Ivanivka and Kyslivka (13.5 miles SE of Kupyansk). It must be noted that there is no confirmation of these claims and Ukrainian sources claim they are not true.
Russia 2 – Svatove/Kreminna Line
Russian forces have advanced toward Makiivka (16.5 miles NW of Kreminna) and claim to have reached the eastern outskirts of the settlement. Russian forces also have claimed to advance near Nevske (14 miles NW of Kreminna).
Russia 3 – Avdiivka/Marinka Line (Outskirts of Occupied Donetsk City)
(Note: Ukrainian advances in Ukraine Sector 2 has now extended that line to Vuhledar and thus I will include that city as part of that sector now).
Russia launched a major offensive against Avdiivka on Tuesday, October 10, with three battalions with air support in twelve directions. The goal was to surround Avdiivka and cut off its supply line. Already surrounding three sides of the city, the goal was to take Berdychi (6 miles NW of Avdiivka) from Krasnohorivka to the east (5 miles N of Avdiivka) and from Tonenke to the south (4.5 miles W of Avdiivka). Russian sources reported they had reached Berdychi from the east on the first day, but that was later proven false. One battalion advanced north from Pervomaiske (7 miles SW of Avdiivka) to widen the attack and prevent reinforcements from the Ukraine Sector 2. Another battalion advanced north toward Tonenke but did not reach its objective. The third battalion headed west from Krasnohorivka to Berdychi and Ocheretyne (10 miles NW of Avdiivka) but did not reach its objectives. Russian forces did capture about 3.25 square miles of territory by the end of the second day and reached within two miles of the O0542 highway which is the main supply route for Avdiivka.
But it became the worst Russian land battle defeat of the war with Russia losing up to 2000 troops, 40 tanks, and 100 armored personnel carriers. Ukraine had expected the attack and heavily mined the region and fired heavy artillery causing huge casualties as Russian troops moved across open land in broad daylight. Video footage was taken of Russian tanks trying to retreat and running over their own soldiers only to be destroyed themselves by a mine. Adding to the death rate was the lack of hospital space prepared for injured troops. Russia is calling on doctors to travel to the front line to assist. But despite their huge losses and defeat, Russia continues to send waves of Russian soldiers forward to their death gaining a little more territory each time. It’s not over yet.
Once the dust settled, Ukrainian forces took advantage of the Russian tragedy and recaptured some territory north of Marinka.
Geolocated video footage has confirmed that Russian forces advanced southeast of Novomykhailivka (6 miles S of Marinka) prior to the attack on Avdiivka.
Ukraine 1 – Liberate Bakhmut
Rain and weather have made it difficult to fight in this sector, but Ukraine claims to have made marginal advances northeast of Andriivka (7 miles S of Bakhmut) and near Klishchiivka (5 miles S of Bakhmut). Russian sources report that Ukraine is shifting its main fighting towards liberating Kurdyumivka to solidify its southern heights over Bakhmut.
Russia also claims to have made some limited advances pushing Ukrainian forces back from the northwest outskirts of Bakhmut and advancing closer towards Dubovo-Vasylivka (5 miles NW of Bakhmut).
Ukraine 2 – Drive to Berdyansk from Velyka Novosilka
Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances northeast of Mykilske (22 miles SE of Velyka Novosilka) bypassing Vuhledar (19 miles SE of Velyka Novosilka) to the south adding that strategic town to this sector. This sector line now stretches 27 miles from Stepove (14 miles SW of Velyka Novosilka) to Vuhledar. The heaviest fighting on this line is around Priyutne (11 miles SW of Velyka Novosilka) and Urozhaine (6.5 miles S of Velyka Novosilka).
Ukraine 3 – Drive to Melitopol from Orikhiv
Ukrainian forces continue their slow advance in the sector with confirmed gains towards Novoprokopivka (11 miles S of Orikhiv), Kopani (8 miles SW of Orikhiv), and Verbove (13 miles SE of Orikhiv). Ukrainian forces are also moving east on Highway T0803 towards Novofedorivka (4 miles NE of Verbove) flanking Verbove on the north. Russia has significantly slowed down the Ukrainian advance in this sector by remining areas that Ukraine had cleared. Ukrainian forces have been confirmed in temporarily reaching the northern outskirts of Novoprokopivka for reconnaissance missions.
Russia launched an offensive on Tuesday north from the Pyatykhatky-Zherebyanky line (16.5 miles SW of Orikhiv) to tie Ukrainian forces to this sector and stop them from reinforcing the defense of Avdiivka (Russian Sector 3) where they had launched their main offensive. Russian sources claimed that Russian troops advanced up to 1.25 miles on that first day.
Ukraine 4 – Liberate Eastern Kherson
Ukraine continues to try and build a beachhead on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River and conducted a limited raid across the river on Monday. Russia has been seen sending troops into the area and hurriedly mining the region in expectation of an attack across the Dnipro River in the winter.
Sunday, October 8, 2023
A barrage of artillery injured eleven people in Kherson, including an infant, on an attack on a residential apartment building.
Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat expressed his concern in an interview that Russia will once again target energy infrastructure with drones to knock out power to Ukrainian communities in the cold winter. He did add that Ukraine is in a better position to defend itself over last year as many old Soviet air defense systems have been replaced with Western-provided systems.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu proposed to merge the Leningrad Military District, the Moscow Military District, and the Northern Fleet into one Western Military District in response to Finland and Sweden joining NATO, and Germany sending 4000 troops into Lithuania. By combining the three military districts into one, Russia will be better prepared to carry their imperialistic intentions against the Baltic States and Finland.
Current Time, a Russian-language journal in the Czech Republic, reported that the number of Russian desertions has increased dramatically since Russia began allowing contract servicemen to take vacations in the Spring. Russia continues to refuse to allow mobilized personnel to take vacations.
Russia has begun fining businesses in the occupied regions who do not report employee men of fighting age that work for them. They are also fined for each such employee that has evaded conscription.
Ivan Fedorov, the occupation mayor of Melitopol, reported in an interview that occupation officials are evicting Ukrainians from their homes and land plots in occupied regions and giving them to Russian servicemen as a reward for their service.
Occupied-Kherson Governor Vladimir Saldo reported on this Telegram channel that Ukrainian partisans assassinated Vladimir Saldo, the local leader of Russia’s ruling United Russia party, in a car bomb attack.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reported on their observation of the increased rail traffic between North Korea and Russia since Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un met in September. Whereas over the last five years there has been an average of 20 railcars at the Russian/North Korean border, there were an unprecedented amount of 73 at the last satellite flyover. This suggests that North Korea has begun providing Russia with weapons.
Monday, October 9, 2023
A battalion of Russian forces attacked towards Hulyaipole as a tactical operation to draw Ukrainian forces away from Ukraine Sectors 2&3. Hulyaipole is situated in the middle between these two sectors.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the NATO Parliamentary Assembly in Denmark to a standing ovation. He thanked NATO countries for their support in the war against Russia. NATO wrapped up the plenary session with a pledge to “step up and speed up” its support of Ukraine.
Russia has mobilized 5000 new troops to bolster the defense of Mariupol in case Ukraine is able to break through the defense line.
Russian occupation officials are setting up children’s centers in museum within occupied Ukraine to teach Ukrainian children about Russian history.
The Russian State Duma (legislature) has begun discussing the Russian withdrawal of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. This rhetoric is designed to pressure the West to pressure Ukraine to negotiate an end to the war on Russia’s terms.
Although many high-ranking Russian officials have suggested that the 2024 presidential elections should be cancelled and Putin announced the winner, Putin has made it clear through his spokesperson that the elections will go forward as planned. The Russian opposition reported that the Kremlin has already decided that Putin will win over 80% of the vote.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov issued a video message of support for the Palestinian people in their war against Israel and offered to deploy troops to Gaza if necessary to secure peace. As Chechnya is an autonomous republic within Russia, it shows another link between Russia and Iran in the conflict against Israel.
Tuesday, October 10, 2023
Russia launched 36 drones towards Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kherson Oblasts. Ukrainian air defense shot down 27 of them. It is not known what targets were hit other than the targets were against energy and grain infrastructure. It is believed that Russia is only using drones as they are preserving their limited number of missiles to use to strike energy infrastructure when winter arrives to freeze Ukraine again this winter.
President Zelensky met with Romanian President Klaus Iohannis in Bucharest where they announced the opening soon of a new land grain corridor through Moldova and Romania to transport Ukrainian grain.
The NATO Parliamentary Assembly adopted six resolutions to increase political, military, intelligence, financial, training, and humanitarian support of Ukraine.
Germany announced another $21 million in military aid for Ukraine which will includes ten more Leopard tanks and three air defense systems.
Russia launched a bid to gain back the seat it lost on the UN Human Rights Council when they invaded Ukraine. But the two vacant seats went to Bulgaria (160 votes) and Albania (123 votes) with Russia only receiving 83 votes in the secret ballot.
Wednesday, October 11, 2023
Russia launched a missile strike on a school in Nikopol near the front line killing four elderly adults. The attack also destroyed about 40 homes and 20 businesses in the surrounding area.
The U.S. announced another $200 million in military aid to Ukraine which will include air defense missiles. Belgium also announced they will turn over $1.8 billion in seized Russian assets to the Ukrainian government next year if the war continues.
The death toll from the Russian attack on the people of Hroza village that had gathered for a wake last week, rose another two to 53 confirmed dead. There are still five people missing so the casualty count can still go up. Two brothers who had fled to Russia had helped plan the attack. They had kept in contact with people in the village and alerted Russian military of the large gathering of people. The people had gathered to bury one of their own who served in the Ukrainian military and was killed in action. A criminal case in absentia has commenced charging both with high treason.
Armenia is notably absent from the “Indestructible Brotherhood-2023” military exercises being held by the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization in Kyrgyzstan and announced they will not be attending the Russian-led Commonwealth of Independent States Summit to be held in two days in Bishkek. And Armenia said that Russian peacekeeper troops still in Nagorno-Karabakh should return to Russia, rather than stay in Armenia. All these signs show that Armenia is leaving the Russian orbit.
Thursday, October 12, 2023
Russia conducted a series of drone strikes across Ukraine hitting port infrastructure in Southern Ukraine and energy infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast. Residential buildings around Izmail were also hit. 33 drones were launched, and Ukraine shot down 28 of them. One woman suffered thermal burns in the attack. Russia also attacked the border community of Chornobaivka with artillery killing one man and injuring another.
The Ukrainian Resistance Center released a report that shows Ukrainian Orthodox Churches in occupied regions are being forced to join the Russian Orthodox Church. Those priests who resist are replaced by priests of the Russian Orthodox Church.
Russian President Vladimir Putin made his first trip out of Russia since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest on war crimes. He visited Kyrgyzstan where joint military exercises have begun and a meeting of the Commonwealth of Independent States, the successor to the Soviet Union, will begin the next day.
Russia is furious over the International Olympic Committee suspending the Russian team after it included sports organizations within Ukrainian occupied territories into the Russian Olympic Committee.
Friday, October 13, 2023
Ukrainian border troops stopped a Russian incursion near Sumy that attempted to destroy an energy infrastructure target.
Ukrainian partisans in occupied territories burned down a Russian weapons warehouse near Mariupol. They also blew up a train carrying ammunition and fuel supplies to the front line. 500 feet of track was destroyed in the attack.
At the opening of the Commonwealth of Independent States summit in Kyrgyzstan, President Putin tried to allay fears of Armenia leaving the CIS due to its absent this year at the gathering. He assured the other CIS countries that he is still in friendly conversations with the Armenian president.
Saturday, October 14, 2023
Ukraine successfully struck three Russian ships of the Black Sea Fleet with “experimental” weapons. The Muru tugboat was seen being towed away. The other two ships hit but still under their own power was the Pavel Derzhavin patrol ship and a missile carrier.
One day after Russian President Putin allayed fears of this CIS allies that Armenia would remain in their circle, Armenia embarrassed Putin by ratifying the International Criminal Court Rome Statute which now obliges Armenia to arrest Putin if he enters Armenia.
North Korea sent over 1000 containers of weapons and ammunition to Russia.
Finland accused Russia of sabotaging a gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia.
NOTE: The rumors that Ukraine provided HAMAS with weapons provided to them by Western nations are false. In actuality, Russia has been supplying HAMAS with weapons they have captured from Ukraine.