Summary: Russia continued its counterattack against Avdiivka making some progress south of the city and northeast. But overall Ukraine has held their ground and inflicted the worst week of casualties against Russia in this war so far. The war had a major surprise when Ukraine fired ATACMS missiles at two Russian airfields letting Russia know that Ukraine now has the long-range missile supplied by the U.S.
Russia 1 – Kupyansk/Svatove Line
Russia maintains 100,000 troops in the sector. Russian forces advanced towards Ivanivka (13 miles SE of Kupyansk) and Kalynove (5 miles N of Kupyansk) bypassing Lyman Pershyi (7.5 miles NE of Kupyansk). Russian sources claim to have advanced towards Synkivka (6 miles NE of Kupyansk). Some sources even claim that Russia has captured Synkivka, but that has been falsely claimed many times before. Russian sources also made unconfirmed claims of advancing closer to Stepova Novoselivka (12 miles SE of Kupyansk) and Krokhmalne (16.5 miles SE of Kupyansk).
Russia 2 – Svatove/Kreminna Line
There are no confirmed Russian advances in this sector, but Russia claims to have advanced closer to Makiivka (15 miles SW of Svatove/16.5 miles NW of Kreminna).
Russia 3 – Avdiivka/Marinka Line (Outskirts of Occupied Donetsk City)
As the week began and the failed catastrophe that befell Russia last week in their unsuccessful offensive against Avdiivka, Russian leaders began to back pedal and no longer refer to the campaign as an “offensive” or “active combat operations” as they had when they launched the attack. President Putin quickly began referring to it as an “active defense” to temper expectations of significant Russian advances among the Russian people and allies. Russian milbloggers have fallen into line in this new informational campaign and have tempered any criticism of the failed assault referring to it as a continuing difficult operation. But two Russian milbloggers, one of whom is Vostok Battalion Commander Alexander Khodakovsky leading the Russian defense in Ukraine Sector 2, did not get the memo and complained that Russian forces will face problems in capturing Avdiivka due to insufficient counterbattery capabilities, commander competency, obsolete equipment, medical support, lack of rotations, and ammunition shortages.
Russian forces have not given up on their attempt to encircle Avdiivka and have advanced within 2 miles south of Avdiivka past the E50 Highway up Soborna Street towards the Tsarska Ohota restaurant which is a heavily fortified Ukrainian position. Russian sources claim to have made marginal advances north of Avdiivka as well towards Keramik (8 miles N of Avdiivka) and Stepove (5 miles NW) placing them in range to fire on the Ukrainian supply route into Avdiivka, but there is no evidence of that yet. The number of Russian casualties continues to rise now estimated to be as high as 4000 personnel, 5 fixed-wing airplanes, 300 armored vehicles, and 95 tanks. This campaign has seen the largest contingent of Russian forces ever aligned against Ukraine and can continue indefinitely if Russian commanders are willing to sustain relatively high losses.
Ukrainian troops have also made some marginal advances in the southwest near Pervomaiske (7 miles SW of Avdiivka) and Sieverne (4 miles W of Avdiivka), claiming to have even pushed Russian forces back from Sieverne.
The situation in Marinka remains a stalemate, but Russian forces have now been confirmed advancing to a tree line south of Novomykhailivka (18.5 miles SW of Donetsk) and then bypassing the settlement moving northeast of it. This finally confirms that Russian forces captured Stepne (19.5 miles SW of Donetsk) a while back.
Ukraine 1 – Liberate Bakhmut
Ukrainian forces claimed to have crossed and secured the railway line east of Klishchiivka (5 miles S of Bakhmut) which if true cuts off a main supply route to support Russian troops in Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces also made confirmed advances northwest of Zaliznyanske (7.5 miles N of Bakhmut) and towards Opytne which lies on the southern outskirts or Bakhmut.
Russian forces conducted a counterattack and pushed Ukrainian forces back from Bakhmut towards Klishchiivka on Friday.
Ukraine 2 – Drive to Berdyansk from Velyka Novosilka
Ukrainian forces made no confirmed or claimed advances in the sector.
Russian forces made unconfirmed claims of advancing towards Zolota Nyva (7.5 miles SE of Velyka Novosilka) that if true threatens to cut in half the defense line from Velyka Novosilka to Vuhledar (19 miles SW of Velyka Novosilka).
Ukraine 3 – Drive to Melitopol from Orikhiv
Ukrainian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops took advantage of the Russian attention on Avdiivka and advanced near Kopani (8 miles S of Orikhiv), Novoprokopivka (11 miles S of Orikhiv), and Nesteryanka (7 miles SW of Orikhiv). They also claimed to advance closer to Verbove (13 miles SE of Orikhiv) from the north and west and are only 700 feet away from the western outskirts of the town.
Ukraine 4 – Liberate Eastern Kherson
Two Ukrainian Marine brigades landed on the east bank of the Dnipro River on Wednesday and moved east to establish a beachhead on the left-bank of the river. One assault group liberated Poima, and another took the northern outskirts of Pishchanivka and moved north towards Pidstepne with little resistance from Russian forces. It is believed that Russia has depleted their defense along the Dnipro River to defend Ukraine Sector 3 and launch the offensive against Avdiivka.
By Thursday it looks like Russian forces pushed these Ukrainian forces out of Poima back to the Dnipro shoreline where they are regrouping and holding their position. But Ukrainian forces continue to fight in the northern outskirts of Pishchanivka. Ukraine launched another assault though farther north reaching the outskirts of Krynky.
Russia destroyed a barge near the Kinburn Spit which they claimed Ukraine was planning to use as a jumping platform to take the spit.
Sunday, October 15, 2023
Russia conducted an airstrike against Kherson knocking out power in some districts of the city.
Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the rhetoric in an interview where he threatened that the situation was “hot” and if war broke out with the west, it would be a “completely different war” than ever fought in the past insinuating the use of nuclear weapons.
An article in the Russian opposition media outlet Meduza claims that the Russian Orthodox Church has appointed Pskov Metropolitan Tikhon as the head of the Crimean Metropolitanate as part of their command to gain control over the Orthodox Churches in occupied Ukraine. Tikhon is the personal confessor to Putin.
Madonna kicked off her world tour in London draped in the Ukrainian flag singing “Don’t Cry For Me, Argentina” as a tribute to Ukrainian partisans.
Monday, October 16, 2023
Ukraine conducted a successful HIMARS attack on a drone production facility at an undisclosed location in occupied Ukraine aided by partisans who provided the target coordinates. Another report was released claiming that 40 Russian soldiers deployed to Mariupol died from being fed poison.
Russia launched a missile and drone assault against Ukraine launching six missiles and twelve drones. Ukraine shot down two of the missiles and all but one of the drones. One target hit was a communication center at the Myrhorod airfield in Poltava Oblast.
Ukraine announced it will allocate 21.6% of the country’s gross domestic product to defense spending in 2024. That is a 7% increase over this year’s budget.
Russian Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova, charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court, released a report admitting that Russia has deported 4.8 million Ukrainians into Russia, including 700,000 children. Qatari officials have identified 20,000 of the children and have begun putting pressure on Russia to return them to Ukraine. Russia agreed to allow four of the children to return to Ukraine. Now we just need to work on the other 699,996.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Beijing to attend China’s hosting of delegates from 130 countries to mark their Belt and Road Initiative. Lavrov has arrived early to prepare for Putin to attend the event.
Penny Pritzker, the newly appointed US Special Representative for Ukraine’s Economic Recovery, arrived in Kyiv to monitor Ukraine’s economic reforms required by the U.S. for further economic assistance.
Tuesday, October 17, 2023
Ukraine conducted a surprise attack on two Russian airfields in occupied Ukrainian territory with ATACMS long-range missiles that no one knew Ukraine had. The U.S. had secretly provided the missiles. Nine Russian helicopters, an anti-aircraft missile launcher, and an ammunition warehouse were destroyed in the attacks. This will force Russia to pull back their aircraft even farther which will disrupt their ability to support defensive and offensive operations. It will also force Russia to split up their ammunition depots making it more difficult to supply their troops effectively.
Russia launched nine missiles against Ukraine and all of them were intercepted. But the debris of six of them fell on a yacht club in Odesa resulting in much damage.
The 31 Abrams tanks provided by the U.S. also arrived in Ukraine.
Russia also had a demonstration of their own using their new TOS-2 thermobaric artillery against Ukrainian forces.
This photo was released of an upside-down Russian armored personnel carrier (APR) and destroyed tank side by side. The BTR-50 APR is a 70-year-old vehicle built in 1952 and has been obsolete since 1970. The hole in the bottom suggests it hit a mine. The fate of the up to 20 soldiers that may have been inside is not known. But it shows that Russia is reduced to Korean War era military vehicles in their fight against Ukraine.
President Putin made his first visit outside Russia since the invasion of Ukraine started. He arrived in Beijing, China, along with leaders of 130 countries, to attend the Belt and Road Initiative Summit.
Russian Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin announced that Russia’s legislative body will begin debate on Russia withdrawing from the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CNTBT) and predicted Russia will withdraw. President Putin had announced the possibility a month ago. Outside the CNTBT, Russia could begin to test nuclear weapons again. This move is meant to scare the West into stopping their support of Ukraine.
Poland held their national elections and the coalition of three opposition parties together won a majority to take control of leading Poland over the conservative Catholic Law and Justice Party which did win the most votes but not enough to stay in power. The opposition parties are pro-EU and would be a benefit to Ukraine to end the rift between Poland and Ukraine over Ukrainian grain exports.
Wednesday, October 18, 2023
Ukraine hit military field camps surrounding Khalino Airfield near Kursk, Russia, where 3000 Russian troops are stationed. The number of casualties and equipment destroyed is not yet known. Ukraine also launched a missile against the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol which was shot down by Russian air defense. It is not known whether it was one of the newly acquired ATACMS.
Russia launched six missiles against Zaporizhia city hitting a residential building killing two people and destroying three floors of the building. Another missile hit a restaurant in Stepove, Mykolaiv Oblast, killing two people and injuring one. A nearby residential building and agricultural enterprise, which was probably the intended target, were damaged.
Russia announced that they will begin patrolling the skies over neutral airspace in the Black Sea with MiG-31 aircraft carrying Kinzhal missiles. This escalation of force threatens NATO operations within the region.
The Ukrainian Rada (Legislature) voted to divert funds for the construction of a Holodomor Museum to double the funding of prosthetics for wounded Ukrainian soldiers.
A Ukrainian resident in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast was arrested as a traitor by supplying Russia with vital information of Ukrainian troop movements. He faces life imprisonment.
President Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the side of the Belt and Road Initiative Summit. Public readouts of the meeting suggest that the talks were restricted to the strengthening of economic cooperation. President Xi has been hesitant to develop a No-Limit security guarantee with Russia.
Putin also met with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán who referred to Russia’s invasion as a “military operation” rather than a “war” following the Russian propaganda line. The Hungarian opposition was incensed and rebuked Orbán for not describing it as a war against Ukraine.
Putin also responded to the surprise use of ATACMS supplied by the US that damaged two Russian airfields the day before. Putin called it a “mistake” that will not change the eventual victory of Russia over Ukraine.
Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Čolaku visited Kyiv along with five of his cabinet members including Minister of Defense to increase cooperation between the two governments.
The US House of Representatives voted not to select Congressman Jim Jordan as the new Speaker of the House in the first vote. This is good news for Ukraine as Jordan leads a wing of the party that opposes the continued support of Ukraine.
Thursday, October 19, 2023
Ukraine launched another two missiles that were intercepted by Russian air defense system against the Black Sea Fleet headquarters at Sevastopol.
Russia launched eight missiles and nine drones. Ukraine reported they shot down one of the missiles and three of the drones.
Russia has begun intercepting NATO planes flying in the neutral zones of the Black Sea Fleet. Russia has also deployed trained dolphins to defend the Crimean coast against Ukrainian deep-sea divers.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui in Pyongyang to discuss further cooperation between the two countries. Russia said they are willing to share military technology with North Korea in exchange for munitions if it does not trigger more sanctions against Russia.
American journalist with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Alsu Kurmasheva, was charged with failing to register as a foreign agent. She had been detained at a Moscow airport last June as she was leaving Russia after visiting a sick relative. She was charged with not showing her American passport when she entered Russia as she also has a Russian passport. She was awaiting the resolution of this issue when further charges were laid on her. She is accused as a foreign agent of gathering military information on Russia.
Belarus dismissed their ambassadors to Ukraine and Estonia.
Friday, October 20, 2023
Ukraine launched 10-15 missiles at the occupied Kherson region with Russia shooting down five of them. Ukrainian partisans blew up a Russian military vehicle near Melitopol.
Russia launched a major offensive against Avdiivka and suffered their greatest defeat in the war with 900 casualties, 50 tanks, and 100 armored personnel carriers destroyed in one day.
President Putin met with Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov at the Russian Southern Military District headquarters at Rostov-On-Don, Russia to be updated on the war situation in Southern and Eastern Ukraine.
Saturday, October 21, 2023
Apart from scattered attacks along the line, not much news to report for Saturday.