Summary: The war seems to have come to a stalemate as both sides struggle to advance.
Russia 1 – Kupyansk/Svatove Line
Russian forces have advanced towards Petropavlivka (5 miles E of Kupyansk) and west of Orlyan’ske (14.5 miles E of Kupyansk).
Russia 2 – Svatove/Kreminna Line
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the sector and advanced closer to Torske (11.5 miles W of Kreminna).
Ukrainian forces conducted counterattacks and regained several positions near Raihorodka (9 miles W of Svatove).
Russia 3 – Avdiivka/Marinka Line (Outskirts of Occupied Donetsk City)
Russian attacks are mostly “meat assaults” where Russian infantry is sent en masse against Ukrainian positions without any artillery support. This is resulting in heavy Russian casualties averaging 55% of the attack force each time. Russia has also lost 200 armored vehicles so far in the first two assaults. Russia is preparing for a third major assault that will surely result in heavy losses for Russia, but they are hoping to capture Avdiivka this time.
Geolocated footage of Russian artillery fire from within Novoselivka Druha (5.5 miles NE of Avdiivka) confirms that Russia had captured that city awhile back.
Russian forces advanced southwest of Krasnohorivka (5 miles N of Avdiivka) towards the railway line just north of Avdiivka. The goal will be to cross the tracks and take the coke and chemical plant just north of Avdiivka as a launching pad on the city itself. They also advanced west of Krasnohorivka and towards the railway southeast of Stepove (5 miles NW of Avdiivka).
Russian forces are advancing south of Krasnohorivka (13.5 miles W of occupied Donetsk city – different then the village of the same name above) to surround Marinka from the north. Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to go back and forth advancing south of Novomykhailivka (6 miles S of Marinka).
Ukraine 1 – Liberate Bakhmut
Ukrainian forces have advanced east of Andriivka (7 miles S of Bakhmut) over the railway line further gaining control over the rail support line of Russian forces defending Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces have also advanced northeast of Kurdyumivka (9 miles S of Bakhmut) and northeast of Klishchiivka (5 miles S of Bakhmut) gaining a foothold in the forest between Klishchiivka and Bakhmut.
Ukraine 2 – Drive to Berdyansk from Velyka Novosilka
Ukrainian forces are conducting limited ground attacks but made no confirmed advances. Russian forces did advance south of Chervone (25 miles SW of Velyka Novosilka).
Ukraine 3 – Drive to Melitopol from Orikhiv
Ukrainian forces have marginally advanced west of Robotyne (8.5 miles S of Orikhiv) towards Kopani (8 miles S of Orikhiv) and south of Shcherbaky (9.5 miles W of Orikhiv) towards Myrne (11 miles SW of Orikhiv)
Ukraine 4 – Liberate Eastern Kherson
Colonel General Oleg Makarevich, the commander of Russian forces in Eastern Kherson, was dismissed as Ukrainian forces continue to strengthen their beachhead on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River.
Sunday, October 29, 2023
Ukraine launched 36 drones over targets in the Black Sea and Crimean peninsula, but Russian air defense intercepted them all. Ukraine also successfully launched drones against one of Russia’s largest oil refineries in Krasnodar, Russia damaging several processing facilities.
Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) seized the corporate rights of Kyivstar, the largest telecommunication company in Ukraine which was owned by the Dutch-based company VEON. Although based in the Netherlands, VEON is owned by three Ukrainian oligarchs who were found guilty of providing financial support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Kyivstar also cooperated with Russia providing surveillance of Ukrainian citizens during the invasion.
Chechen soldiers slaughtered nine members of a Ukrainian family in occupied Volnovakha, Donetsk Oblast, who refused to quarter Chechen troops in their home.
Antisemitic riots erupted over the Muslim autonomous Russian regions of the Caucasus. A Telegram channel reported a rumor that Israeli refugees were staying at a hotel in Khasavyurt, Dagestan. Hundreds of demonstrators arrived at the hotel and stormed the airport in Makhachkala blocking the runway to prevent anymore Israeli refugees from landing. A Jewish cultural center was burned down in nearby Nalchik, Kabardino-Balkaria. There was no report of the demonstrators finding any Israeli refugees, but they were chanting “death to the Jews” and physically attacked airport security. Russia’s Chief Rabbinate called on all Jews living in Russia to leave immediately.
Monday, October 30, 2023
Ukraine launched twelve missiles and three drones against Crimea. All of them were shot down except for two ATACMS striking a radar station near Olenivka knocking out one of Russia’s critical air defense systems over Crimea. The attack also damaged several vehicles and killed or wounded more than 20 Russian personnel.
Russia launched 12 drones and six missiles against targets in Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense shot down all the drones and two of the missiles. The four missiles that remained struck port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast damaging a ship-repair facility and injuring two civilians.
A Russian agent was arrested installing webcams along roads in Zaporizhia to monitor Ukrainian army movements.
Ukraine announced they were rolling out a new smart mobilization program where Ukrainians can sign up for specific roles and units if they want to join the military. All needed positions are listed, and Ukrainians can choose what they want to do when they join the Ukrainian armed forces. Many Ukrainians want to join in the war effort, but are afraid of being assigned to frontline positions.
Russian police have gained control over the riots in Dagestan arresting 60 demonstrators. At least nine officers were injured in the operation to gain control and disburse the rioters. Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed Ukraine for starting the false rumors that Israeli refugees were heading for Dagestan.
A record 100 countries gathered in Beijing for the 10th annual Xiangshan Forum to discuss security issues in the Asian region. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was present and highlighted the close relationship between Russia and China.
Tuesday, October 31, 2023
Ukraine launched another successful attack on a Russian air defense system in Crimea near Molochne. A devastating HIMARS attack has destroyed an entire battalion of soldiers from Chuvashia resulting in over 120 soldiers killed and wounded as they were heading to join the frontline Russian troops.
Russian forces launched at least five missiles and numerous drones against Ukrainian targets, but no report was given on the number intercepted leaving the impression most successfully hit their targets. One missile has been confirmed hitting a target in Zaporizhia city. And several drones hit targets in Khmelnitsky and Poltava oblasts.
Polish carriers have begun blockading the Polish-Ukrainian border threatening the blockades will be in place for the remainder of 2023. They are demanding the Ukrainian carriers, who are crossing the border in larger numbers, be regulated more tightly and forced to obtain Polish permits.
Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov ordered security personnel to fire three warning shots in the air at future antisemitic protestors, and the fourth shot to the head of the protestor.
Russia arrested two soldiers for the murder of nine members of a Ukrainian family in Volnovakha, Donetsk Oblast.
Uzbekistan sentenced an Uzbek citizen to prison for serving as a mercenary with the Russian army in Ukraine. This will surely heighten tensions between Russia and Uzbekistan.
Wednesday, November 1, 2023
Ukraine Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi gave an assessment in an essay and an interview with The Economist that the war with Russia has reached a stalemate and attacks now are merely for position rather than liberating territory lost to Russia. He claims that Russian and Ukraine have reached parity and neither side is able to make any real advances. He argued that the only way Ukraine can move back on the offensive is contingent on five conditions – (1) gaining air superiority; (2) breaching Russian minefields in depth; (3) increasing the effectiveness of counterbattery combat; (4) creating and training necessary reserves; and, (5) building up electronic warfare capabilities.
Russia fired millions of artillery shells on 118 settlements which is the highest amount since the start of the war killing two civilians. Russian forces launched three missiles and twenty drones mainly targeting Poltava Oblast. Only two of the drones made it through Ukrainian air defenses hitting an oil refinery in Kremenchuk and the Myrhorod airfield. There were no casualties, but it took 100 firefighters to put out the blaze in Kremenchuk.
A recent survey of Russian citizens reveal that 70% would support a cessation of the war against Ukraine, but only a third of Russia would support the return of all occupied territories.
Russia continues its efforts to force Ukrainians living in occupied regions to get Russian passports. Occupied Kherson head Vladimir Saldo announced that free flu shots will be given to all residents who have a Russian passport.
U.S. Republican Party leaders have stated their support of continued military aid to Ukraine under the condition of a clear vision and strategy for victory and an end to the stalemate.
Thursday, November 2, 2023
Ukraine conducted a successful strike against the occupied Kherson military headquarters in Strilkove. Ukrainian forces also crossed the Russian border and destroyed a $5.5 million radar station in the village of Krasnaya Polyana.
Ukraine designated the Swiss-based company Nestlé as a sponsor of war as it continues to operate within Russian territory.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the Russian revocation of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty which had been signed by 178 countries.
South Korean intelligence reported that North Korea has delivered one million rounds of artillery to Russia to date.
Friday, November 3, 2023
Ukraine launched six missiles against military targets in occupied Kherson Oblast with Russian air defense systems intercepting four of them.
Russia conducted a larger than usual series of drone attacks throughout Ukraine. Russia launched 48 drones and one missile. Ukraine shot down half of the drones and the missile. Targets were hit in Kharkiv, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Odesa Oblasts primarily hitting civil infrastructure and a military facility in Ivano-Frankivsk. Russia first launched a smaller number of drones to identify the locations of Ukrainian air defense and then launched a larger number to those areas deemed less defended.
The U.S. announced another $125 million in military assistance to Ukraine to consist of missiles, artillery rounds, anti-tank weapons, and small arms munitions. They U.S. also announced they would send $300 million of air defense systems to Ukraine.
The U.S. announced sanctions against individuals and companies in Turkey, China, and the United Arab Emirates who are supplying Russia with materials they need to conduct their war against Ukraine. A total of 130 new targets were added to the sanction list.
Delegates from 66 countries gathered in Malta to finalize the Ukrainian Peace Formula, but the absence of China was felt.
Saturday, November 4, 2023
Ukraine conducted a strike against a Russian shipyard in occupied Kerch, Crimea. No details have been released but Ukrainian sources claimed that one of Russia’s largest ships is based there.
Russia conducted a series of drone and missile attacks against Ukraine. The number of launches was not announced, but Ukraine reported to have intercepted three missiles and two drones.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky clarified the report earlier in the week by Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhny. Zelensky said that Zaluzhny was not saying the fighting has come to a stalemate but is at risk of becoming a stalemate if Ukraine does not accomplish the five objectives Zaluzhny laid out. But Zelensky assured the world that Ukraine still has some tricks up their sleeves and is only moving slowly to protect the lives of Ukrainian troops. Zelensky also denied rumors that he is being put under pressure by Western nations to start peace negotiations.