Days 620-626 (November 5-11, 2023)

Summary: Russia seems to have changed their tactic of assaulting Avdiivka with massive waves of troops and have adopted a “creeping offensive” which seems to be working better allowing them to enter Stepove and placing that settlement in conflict. Ukraine continues building up its foothold on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River with evidence of armored vehicles now crossing the river. Ukraine has also increased its attack on military targets blowing up two military factories and sinking two ships. There is also an increase in assassinations on Ukrainian traitors who are collaborating with the Russians.

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Russia 1 – Kupyansk/Svatove Line

Russian forces advanced southwest of Pershotravneve (14 miles E of Kupyansk) and southwest of Petropavlivka (5 miles E of Kupyansk).

Russia 2 – Svatove/Kreminna Line

Russian forces made no confirmed advances in the sector.

Russia 3 – Avdiivka/Marinka Line (Outskirts of Occupied Donetsk City)

After two unsuccessful mass assaults on Avdiivka, Russia announced they are changing their tactics to a “creeping offensive” towards Avdiivka which seems to be working with some claiming Russian forces are within 1500 feet of Avdiivka, but Ukraine is preparing for another third mass assault nonetheless.

North of Avdiivka, Russian forces managed to push Ukrainian forces out of a stronghold breaking through the railway line near Stepove (5 miles NW of Avdiivka) and have entered eastern Stepove. Russian forces have also crossed the tracks near the Avdiivka Coke Plant just north of Avdiivka. Russia has suffered many casualties in making these limited advances losing an average of 600 casualties a day.

South of Avdiivka, Russian forces have also advanced south of Novomykhailivka (18.5 miles SW of Donetsk city).

Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack restoring some lost positions. Ukrainian forces pushed Russian forces back over the railway line near Krasnohorivka (5 miles N of Avdiivka) and regained territory northeast of Vodyane (4.5 miles SW of Avdiivka).

Ukraine 1 – Liberate Bakhmut

Ukrainian forces advanced east of Andriivka across the railway tracks.

On Wednesday, Russian forces began a large push south of Bakhmut advancing towards Klishchiivka (some sources even claimed they retook the settlement) and pushing Ukrainian forces back over the railway tracks east of Klishchiivka. This was possible as Ukraine has begun shifting its forces away from Bakhmut to other segments of the front line. But by Friday, the Russian forces were pushed back.

Russian forces made some progress north of Bakhmut retaking the Berkhivka Reservoir (6.5 miles NW of Bakhmut and advancing towards Bohdanivka (7.5 miles W of Bakhmut). Russian forces also made marginal advances northward near Vasyukivka (10 miles N of Bakhmut).

Ukraine 2 – Drive to Berdyansk from Velyka Novosilka

Ukrainian forces made no confirmed advances in the sector.

Russian forces advanced north of Mykilske and are now within 2 miles of Vuhledar.

Ukraine 3 – Drive to Melitopol from Orikhiv

Ukrainian forces made advances northwest of Verbove (13 miles SE of Orikhiv).

Russian forces made limited advances west of Verbove.

Ukraine 4 – Liberate Eastern Kherson

Ukrainian forces made progress advances on the East Bank of the Dnipro River near Pidstepne (13 miles E of Kherson) taking a solar panel farm on the southwestern border of the town and controls home in Krynky (24 miles NE of Kherson). By Tuesday, Ukraine began transferring a limited number of armored vehicles to the left bank confirmed by geolocated photos of an armored personnel carrier transporting troops on the eastern side of the Dnipro River.

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Russia is fighting back with glide bomb attacks against Kherson Oblast launching 136 bombs on Sunday and Monday alone.


Sunday, November 5, 2023

It was confirmed by satellite image that Ukraine struck the Zalyv Shipyard in occupied Kerch, Crimea the day before damaging the Askold missile carrier corvette. It is not sure how much damage was done to the largest shipyard in Eastern Europe after Ukraine struck and shut down the Sevmorzavod shipyard six weeks ago in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea. This will seriously damage the operation of the Russian Black Sea Fleet at least in the short term.

Ukraine conducted successful drone and missile strikes against Russian rear targets in occupied Skadovsk, Kherson Oblast and Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast. Details on what was hit has not been released.

Russia fired a missile at a gathering of Ukrainian soldier near the frontline who had gathered for an award ceremony. At least 20 veteran soldiers from Zakarpattia were killed in the attack. The commander officiating the award ceremony was already an hour late when the attack occurred giving Russian spies enough time to report on the event and fire a missile. We held a minute of silence at the beginning of our church service for the fellow Zakarpattians killed in the attack.

Ukraine has filed criminal charges against Patriarch Kirill, the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, in absentia for justifying Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gave an interview to NBC where he reiterated that Ukraine is not at a stalemate with Russia but has placed their counteroffensive at a check until they receive the necessary air support systems they need to continue without great loss of life. He also vowed that Ukraine will not settle for any peace short of the return of all their territory including Crimea.

The Russian Ministry of Defense released video footage of a purportedly successful test launch of the Bulava missile designed to carry a nuclear payload.

Monday, November 6, 2023

Ukraine launched a successful missile strike against an ammunition warehouse in occupied Siedove damaging nearby helicopters and other military equipment.

It was confirmed that the Askold Russian corvette hit at the shipyard in occupied Kerch on Saturday was destroyed.

Russia launched six missiles and 22 drones against Ukrainian targets. Ukraine air defense systems shot down two of the missiles and 15 of the drones. Infrastructure was hit in Odesa and civilian targets in Kherson. The National Art Museum in Odesa was also damaged with five people being injured in the attack.

Five Injured and Museum Damaged in Russian Attack on Odesa

Ukraine opened a criminal investigation against commanders who organized the award ceremony on Sunday that was struck by a Russian missile. The body count has now risen to 22 personnel killed. Uzhhorod began three days of mourning for those Zakarpattians killed in the attack.

Polish truck drivers blocked several border crossings in protest against what they call unfair competition from Ukrainian truck drivers. Ukrainian truck drives are flooding across the border offering their services at a much lower cost due to lower maintenance costs, insurance, and driver’s salaries.

Tuesday, November 7, 2023

Ukraine launched 17 drones against targets in occupied Crimea, but all of them were intercepted by Russian air defense.

The Ukrainian Commander of the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade, Dmytro Lysyuk, has been suspended during the investigation of 19 soldiers were killed waiting for an awards ceremony so near the front lines on Sunday.

President Biden sent a letter to Congress urging another $11.8 billion in military aid for Ukraine stating this is the minimum needed to cover baseline needs.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that presidential elections will not be held according to the constitution that forbids elections during times of martial law.

Former Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov was charged with the embezzlement of $7 million in the purchase of army winter coats prior to the Russian invasion. Invoices recorded that the coats were purchased at $86 each, but Turkish invoices show that the coats were only $28 each.

Russia has begun constructing a new rail line that will connect occupied Crimea with Russia through the land bridge of occupied Zaporizhia and Donetsk regions. Currently, the only rail line into Crimea is over the Kursk Bridge which has been under constant attack by Ukraine.

Wednesday, November 8, 2023

Ukraine launched three missiles towards occupied Crimea but all three were intercepted by Russian air defenses.

Russia launched a missile against a Liberian-flagged cargo ship that was in the port of Odesa loading a grain shipment. The ship’s pilot was killed and several of the ship’s crew were injured. The ship was destined to bring grain to China.

President Zelensky said in an interview to Reuters that Ukraine has developed a counteroffensive plan for 2024, which he could not, of course, divulge at this time. He did say that Ukraine has several paths for future advances in southern Ukraine.

Ukraine’s parliament passed the 2024 budget based on a projection of 1.5% growth. Ukraine will spend a record $32 billion on the military with an additional $2.8 billion on the National Guard.

Ukrainian partisans assassinated the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party in occupied Luhansk Oblast Colonel Mikhail Filiponenko in a car bomb. Filiponenko had been leading a torture camp for Ukrainian civilians and prisoners of war and had personally participated in the tortures.

A Ukrainian court found in absentia Volodymyr Saldo, the governor of occupied Kherson Oblast, guilty of high treason.

The EU formally recommended the opening of membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova, and they granted candidate status to Georgia as well.

The Netherlands has delivered six F-16 fighter aircraft to Romania to begin training Ukrainian and Romanian pilots.

The G7 foreign ministers met in Tokyo to discuss their common support of Israel in the conflict with Hamas terrorists. They vowed not to let-up in their support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.

The third US Republican Party presidential debates were held and Ukraine was a topic of discussion. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy came out as the biggest enemy of Ukraine calling our beloved President a “Nazi” and that the regions occupied by Russia are legitimate territories of Russians. Ron DeSantis stated he was against sending troops to Ukraine (Ukraine has never asked for this) nor any more military aid. Tim Scott praised Ukraine for its valiant defense but added future military aid must come with some accountability (a position I myself support). Nikki Haley and Chris Christie both supported the US support of Ukraine to stop Russia from continuing his campaign to conquer Europe.

Thursday, November 9, 2023

Ukraine launched two missiles at occupied Crimea with Russian air defenses intercepting one of them. One missile struck a hotel in Skadovsk being used as a command post and to quarter Russian troops killing up to ten officers gathered for a meeting.

The US and South Korea condemned North Korea for supplying arms to Russia. But beyond a verbal rebuke, no other actions were taken against North Korea.

Friday, November 10, 2023

Ukraine launched a missile, two air drones, and four sea drones against Russian targets in occupied Crimea. Russian air defenses shot down the missiles and air drones, but the four sea drones struck and sunk two small landing ships in Uzka Bay, one of which was loaded with armored vehicles.

Another Russian officer was assassinated, this time over the border in Russia. Ukrainian forces struck a car carrying Lt. Col. Sergey Shaty who is an officer with the Russian border patrol.

Russia fired two missiles and six drones against Ukraine. One of the missiles and five of the drones were intercepted by Ukrainian air defense. The one missile that got through missed its target, unless it was aiming for an empty field.

Ukrainian partisans blew up a police car in occupied Mariupol. It is not known whether the collaborator was in the car or not during the explosion. This is the latest in the growing number of assassinations of Ukrainian traitors who are collaborating with the Russian invaders.

Saturday, November 11, 2023

Ukraine struck and destroyed railway tracks in Russian territory causing 19 railroad freight cars carrying mineral fertilizer to derail. This will complicate Russian military logistics for the near future. Also, an attack was made on a gunpowder factory in Kotovsk, Russia. Another factory in Kolomna near Moscow also went up in flames which was used to build missile parts. It is believed that these attacks were done with military drones but neither Russia nor Ukraine would comment.

Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone strike against Ukraine firing six missiles and 31 drones. Two of the missiles and 19 drones were intercepted by Ukrainian air defense system. It was the first time Kyiv was targeted since nearly two months ago.

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