Summary: Russia has increased the number of offensive actions towards Kupyansk and Avdiivka trying to bring the Ukrainian counteroffensive to an end and regain the initiative in the war, but a combination of poor weather and Ukrainian success in building a bridgehead across the Dnipro River prevented their success.
Russia 1 – Kupyansk/Svatove Line
Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to push back and forth southwest of Pershotravneve (14 miles E of Kupyansk). Russian forces have also marginally advanced towards Ivanivka (13 miles SE of Kupyansk).
Russia 2 – Svatove/Kreminna Line
Russian forces advanced west of Serhiivka (9.5 miles W of Svatove) confirming Russian claims last week that they had captured Serhiivka. Russian forces have also advanced west of Volodymyrivka (14.5 miles NW of Svatove).
Russia 3 – Avdiivka/Marinka Line (Outskirts of Occupied Donetsk City)
Russian forces have moved into the eastern outskirts of Stepove (5 miles NW of Avdiivka) and have moved into the industrial zone just 0.5 miles southeast of Avdiivka. Russian forces have also advanced towards the Avdiivka Coke Plant in the northern outskirts of Avdiivka. This is the most heavily defended section of the city and British Intelligence is predicting huge Russian casualties if they launch a full assault against the plant. Russian forces have steadily been inching closer to Avdiivka from both the northeast and southwest and are expected to launch their third wave of assaults soon to finally take the city which has been the most defended since the first Russian invasion in 2014 as it borders occupied Donetsk city.
Russian forces have also made some marginal advances in the northwestern part of Marinka, the last Ukrainian stronghold in that contested city.
Ukrainian forces counterattacked south of Avdiivka regaining territory near the E50 highway and in the direction of Vodiane (4.5 miles W of Avdiivka). Ukrainian forces also began to push towards Stepove to counter Russia’s advances against that settlement.
Ukrainian forces also retook territory northeast of Mykilske (3.5 miles SE of Vuhledar) that Russia had gained the week before.
Ukraine 1 – Liberate Bakhmut
Ukrainian forces marginally advanced southeast of Toretsk (15.5 miles SW of Bakhmut) and southeast of Pivdenne (17 miles S of Bakhmut).
Russian forces continue to advance north of Bakhmut. Russian forces advanced west of Yahidne (2 miles N of Bakhmut), north of Berkhivka towards Bohdanivka (4.5 miles W of Bakhmut) and westward along a tree line west of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (8 miles NW of Bakhmut).
Ukraine 2 – Drive to Berdyansk from Velyka Novosilka
Ukraine made no confirmed or claimed advances in the sector.
Russian forces made limited advances west of Novodonetske (7.5 miles SE of Velyka Novosilka) and east of Urozhaine (6.5 miles S of Velyka Novosilka).
Ukraine 3 – Drive to Melitopol from Orikhiv
Ukrainian forces advanced closer to Verbove (13 miles SE of Orikhiv) from the northeast and made some marginal advances near Novoprokopivka (11 miles S of Orikhiv) and west and southwest of Robotyne (8.5 miles S of Orikhiv)
Russian forces also made some gains in the sector marginally advancing north of Kopani (8 miles S of Orikhiv) and near Pyatykhaty (16 miles SW of Orikhiv).
Ukraine 4 – Liberate Eastern Kherson
Russia state media released on Monday, November 13, their first mention of Ukrainian troops crossing the Dnipro River and building a beachhead on the eastern bank and the need to redeploy troops to defend the sector. But the report was almost immediately taken down. One theory is that Russia is trying to suppress any mention of Ukrainian progress in opening another front of the war suggesting that the situation is worse than reported. Or perhaps Russia simply did not want to give Ukraine advance notice of these redeployments, or maybe the leak was on purpose as a bluff to make Ukrainian forces to be more cautious and thus slow down their advance.
Russian sources had claimed that Ukraine had secured control over Krynky and began advancing south. But by midweek, Russian forces had reentered Krynky and the settlement was under contest again.
Sunday, November 12, 2023
Ukrainian partisans attacked a Russian military headquarters in occupied Melitopol killing three officers.
A delegation of Ukrainian diplomats arrived in the US to raise funds for Ukraine’s valiant defense against Russian aggression.
Germany announced that they would double their support for Ukraine in 2024 to $8.5 billion.
Russian launched three missiles at Southern Ukraine. One of them were shot down by Ukrainian air defenses, but the other two struck unpopulated areas and were thus not worth wasting an air defense system to shoot them down.
The Russian government has extended their control over the information space by banning most VPNs that allow Russian citizens to access web news sites that are blocked by the Russian government.
Monday, November 13, 2023
US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridgit Brink announced that the 100th civilian ship has used the Black Sea corridor set up by NATO countries to export grain from Ukraine.
The Russian Ministry of Defense has offered monthly salaries of $1200 to former Wagner Group personnel to join the Russian military. This suggests that the Russian government has failed so far in recruiting Wagner Group forces into the Russian military.
Russia has again violated international law and deported nine Ukrainian children to Sochi, Russia, for rehabilitation bringing the total number of children deported to Sochi to 170.
Russia continues to pressure Ukrainians in occupied territories to obtain Russian passports. New rules in occupied Kherson now require Russian passports to purchase a home or an apartment in occupied regions. Passports will also be needed to obtain or renew a driver’s license, and all driver’s licenses issued under Ukraine will expire by 2026.
Charities Aid Foundation, a British NGO, compiles an annual report on the generosity of 142 countries. In the report just released, Ukraine is the second most generous country in the world. This is mostly due to the Ukrainian people giving sacrificially to help their fellow countrymen who are victims of war. 78% of Ukrainians have helped a stranger, 70% have donated to a charity, and 37% volunteer. Indonesia held on to their number one position which they have held for six years. Russia came in at 102 and Poland came in dead last at 142. The United States came in fifth place.
Tuesday, November 14, 2023
Ukraine struck a missile factory near Moscow and a chemical plant near Bryansk.
Russia launched another series of missiles and drones at targets deep within Ukraine. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted seven of the nine drones and one missile. It was not reported what was hit in the attack, but one missile hit an open area causing no casualties or damage to any structures. In another attack one person was killed and another seven injured. When rescuers arrived, Russia hit the same location again killing two first responders. Russia also struck a residential building in Selydove, Donetsk Oblast killing a woman in her home. Another person is assumed to be under the rubble and their fate is not yet known.
Investigations have shown that standard security protocols were neglected resulting in the death of 19 Ukrainian soldiers gathered for an award ceremony last Sunday.
Germany pledged another ten Leopard tanks, 14 all-terrain vehicles, and over a thousand artillery shells. Ukrainian pilots began training on F-16s fighter jets in Romania. EU Foreign Affairs Representative Josep Borrell stated that Ukraine’s defense is Europe’s number one priority.
Russian occupation authorities announced that Christmas and New Year’s will not be celebrated in occupied territories due to security concerns.
Ukraine Foreign Affairs Minister Dmytro Kuleba reported that the European Union will be unable to fulfill their commitment to supply Ukraine one million artillery shells by March 2024. He added that it was not because the EU did not have the desire, but lacked the ability to produce that much ammunition.
Russia fined Google $165,000 for failing to abide by Russian law and disclose user’s personal data to the government.
Armenia announced that they would not be attending the Russian-led Collective Treaty Security Organization meeting in Minsk on November 23 as further evidence that Armenia is distancing themselves from Russia.
Wednesday, November 15, 2023
Denmark announced they will start blocking Russian oil tankers from traveling through the Danish Straits.
Thursday, November 16, 2023
A large drone attack was made against a huge military arsenal in Volgograd, Russia. Ukraine did not take credit for the attack.
Russia launched 18 drones and an undetermined number of missiles against Ukrainian targets. 16 of the drones were intercepted and at least one missile. Russia also continued their daily shelling of Kherson city killing three civilians and injuring another in an attack on a residential building.
The United States Congress passed legislation to keep their government running but left out any aid for Ukraine.
British Foreign Secretary David Cameron made a surprise visit to Kyiv and vowed to keep supplying Ukraine with military aid in their fight against Russia.
Friday, November 17, 2023
Ukraine launched missiles and drones against targets in Crimea, but all were intercepted by Russian air defense systems. Ukraine struck Russian troops with HIMARS rockets near Chaplynka and Askania-Nova in occupied Kherson Oblast.
Russia launched ten drones and several missiles hitting targets in Khmelnitsky, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Kharkiv Oblasts. Nine of the drones were intercepted by Ukrainian air defense systems.
Yale University released a report alleging that Russia has forcibly relocated 2400 Ukrainian children to Belarus since the invasion began. And the Ukrainian Resistance Center has reported that Russia has imported 30,000 Russian citizens into the occupied regions.
Saturday, November 18, 2023
Ukrainian partisans blew up a car in occupied Kreminna injuring two police chiefs.
Russia launched another wave of drone attacks throughout Ukraine. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 29 of the 38 drones that were launched. Successful hits were made against energy infrastructure in Odesa and Chernihiv Oblasts in the south, an oil depot in Odesa Oblast, the Starokostiantyniv airfield in Khmelnitsky Oblast, and Kyiv itself.
The European Council announced they will ban the sale of petroleum tankers to Russia to make it more difficult for Russia to export their oil products around the world.
A surge of Russian refugees have been attempting to cross the border into Finland and Norway. Finland made the decision to close their border with Russia in response, and Norway is considering taking the same action as well.