Summary: Rainy weather has slowed the pace of attacks on both sides, but the combat operations continue mostly by infantry units as armored vehicles are unable to operate in such muddy conditions. Ukrainian forces continued to defend against Russian forces attacking near Kupyansk and Avdiivka (Russian Sectors 1 & 3) but have maintained battlefield initiative in Southern Ukraine (Ukrainian Sectors 3 & 4). Neither side will be able to make much progress until freezing winter conditions arrive.
I spent another night in Apostolove which was only 3 miles from the frontline at one point in the war but is now a safer 50 miles away from Ukrainian Sector 3 – but close enough to hear the artillery and mortar fire as a reminder that the war was now much closer. I am here coaching five churches in youth ministry and meeting with church and government leaders exploring the prospect of starting our second integrated community transformation project.
Russia 1 – Kupyansk/Svatove Line
Russian forces continued their offensive operations towards capturing Kupyansk but made no confirmed advances. The heaviest battles continue to be near Synkivka (6 miles NE of Kupyansk), Ivanivka (13 miles SE), and Petropavlivka (5 miles E).
Russia 2 – Svatove/Kreminna Line
Russian forces continued their offensive operations from Kreminna but made no confirmed advances. The heaviest battles are in the Serebrianska forest area just southwest of Kreminna and in the drive to capture Lyman with fighting near Dibrova (5.5 miles SW of Kreminna) and Torske (11.5 miles east of Kreminna). Ukrainian forces are focusing on pushing Russian forces back from Dibrova towards Kuzmyne (4 miles SW of Kreminna).
Russia 3 – Avdiivka/Marinka Line (Outskirts of Occupied Donetsk City)
Russian forces continued their offensive operations toward the capture Avdiivka but made no confirmed advances. The heaviest fighting has been in the industrial region just southeast of Avdiivka, the Coke Plant in the northeastern outskirts of Avdiivka, and around the city of Stepove (5 miles NW of Avdiivka) where Ukraine made a successful counterattack recapturing positions near the railway line just east of the city.
(Click to watch video of Ukrainian troops performing rotation under heavy fire effectively using US Bradley infantry fighting vehicles during the counterattack near Stepove)
Russian forces continued their offensive operations towards the capture of Marinka but made no confirmed advances. Russia claims to have improved their tactical positions around Marinka over the last week.
Russian casualties are so high in this sector that Russian personnel refusing to fight, or even deserting, is rising. Russia is relying more and more on barrier troops using physical force to push Russian soldiers to fight.
(Russian soldier having committed suicide feeling helpless as Russian military is shooting soldiers who try to retreat)
Ukraine 1 – Liberate Bakhmut
Ukrainian forces continued their offensive operations near Bakhmut but made no confirmed advances. They focused on attacks near Klishchiivka (5 miles S of Bakhmut). But further south Ukrainian forces did make confirmed advances towards occupied Horlivka (20 miles S of Bakhmut). Ukrainian forces moved south from their positions in Shumy (6.5 miles NW of Horlivka) and captured the waste heap near the Gagarin mine northwest of Horlivka. Russia claims to have retaken some of the lost territory later in the day but does admit that the top of the waste heap is at least a contested “gray zone” now.
Russia also made some offensive operations in the sector but made no confirmed advances. Russia is focusing on recapturing Klishchiivka to the south of Bakhmut and pushing west of Bakhmut. Russian forces attacking from Yahidne and the Berkhivka Reservoir, claimed to have advanced closer to Khromove (bordering Bakhmut to the west) and Bohdanivka (5 miles W of Bakhmut).
Ukraine 2 – Drive to Berdyansk from Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces currently have the initiative in this sector as Ukrainian forces are focused elsewhere and have moved to a defensive posture. Russian forces continue to conduct offensive operations but made no confirmed advances. The major battle was near Staromaiorske (6 miles S of Velyka Novosilka). Russia conducted a large airstrike with RBK-500 cluster bombs modified as glide bombs against Ukrainian positions defending the city. But Ukrainian forces held their position and gave up no ground.
Ukraine 3 – Drive to Melitopol from Orikhiv
Ukrainian forces continued their offensive operations pushing out from Robotyne (8.5 miles S of Orikhiv). They reportedly made some marginal advances south towards Novoprokopivka (3 miles S of Robotyne) and west towards Rivne (5.5 miles W of Robotyne).
Russia claims to have recaptured a section of the N08 Highway during a counterattack near Novofedorivka (10 miles E of Robotyne).
Ukraine 4 – Liberate Eastern Kherson
Ukrainian forces continued their offensive operations in building a beachhead on the eastern shore of the Dnipro River. Ukraine claims to have pushed Russian troops back 5 miles placing Russian mortars out of range of Ukrainian-held cities on the west bank of the Dnipro River. But Russian artillery is still within range and Russia continued their daily attacks on west bank communities as part of their campaign of terror to stop Ukrainian forces from crossing the Dnipro River. Five civilians were injured in the attacks including a three-year-old girl. Russian air defenses are weak in this sector allowing Ukraine to damage Russia’s artillery systems more effectively.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced that their main operations during the winter will be to disrupt Russian logistics to keep Russian troops hungry and cold. They would, of course, continue the trench warfare and attack Russian artillery and their trench shelters.
Ukraine reportedly fired a Tochka-U missile at a target in the Russian Oblast of Belgorod. This created a swell of controversy about who is supplying such armaments to Ukraine. It was being suggested that perhaps Ukraine is receiving these missiles from Armenia which has been a longtime ally of Russia but has been moving away from Russia since Azerbaijan captured Nagorno-Karabakh which Russia was supposed to be defending for them but had been distracted by the war with Ukraine. Armenia had not attended the last meeting of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) which is the counterbalance to NATO creating rumors that Armenia was considering leaving the CSTO. But as recently as November 9, Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanyan had told journalists that Armenia is not planning on severing its ties from the CSTO. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had stated on Saturday that progress has been made towards a peace treaty with Azerbaijan.
Ukraine also launched a drone towards Moscow, but it was intercepted by Russian air defenses. The debris fell on a roadway causing no damage or casualties.
Russia launched 20 drones against targets in Kyiv, Poltava, and Cherkasy Oblasts (the latter being the region where Marina’s parents live). Ukrainian air defense systems reportedly shot down 15 of them. Russia reported that they hit an ammunition depot near Kirovohrad and a fuel storage facility at the Kanatove airfield nearby. They also claimed to have hit a second ammunition depot and energy infrastructure in Kyiv Oblast. But there were no casualties or critical damage. Russia also struck the border region around Sumy with artillery and mortars killing one civilian.
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he has replaced Major General Tetiana Ostashchenko with Major General Anatoliy Kazmirchuk as the commander of Medical Forces Command. The change is part of the campaign to modernize the medical equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Kazmirchuk had been the head of the National Military Medical Clinical Center, the main military hospital in Kyiv.
Ardent Russian nationalist and former military officer Igor Girkin formally announced his presidential campaign against incumbent President Vladimir Putin from his imprisonment acknowledging he does not have a chance of winning as the election results are already pre-determined but decided to run anyway to bring patriotic opposition together. He appealed to the Russian Strelkov Movement (RDS) to gather the necessary signatures needed for him to run as an independent candidate (“Strelkov” is his military call sign). Of interesting note, Girkin’s wife did not announce this presidential bid which would have been expected as she has served as the mouthpiece of her husband during his imprisonment and has been advocating for his release. The RDS announced the presidential bid and Girkin’s wife’s silence suggests that she is not in support of such a campaign as it will only hurt her husband’s chances of being released.
The Internal Affairs Ministry of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) issued an order of censorship to the DNR Vostok Battalion, which has been fighting in Ukrainian Sector 2. The Russian Ministry of Defense is attempting to bring the DNR forces directly under their control and want to silence their voice as an independent force.
Teenage Ukrainian citizen Bohdan Yermokhin has finally returned to Ukraine after having been forcibly removed to Russia after his city had become occupied by Russia. President Zelensky had started the “Bring Kids Back UA” program which is advocating for the return of such stolen children from Russia. Russia had said that once he turned 18, he would be free to return to Ukraine if he wanted but had been putting much pressure on the boy to join the Russian military and fight against his country. Thanks to UNICEF and the Qatar government who advocated for his release back to Ukraine, he has finally returned home. Russia agreed to his return under the condition that he meet a relative in a third country before returning to Ukraine. Yermokhin thus traveled to Belarus to meet with his sister before returning to Ukraine.
Russian families have been trying to register a protest in Novosibirsk, Russia’s third largest city, demanding that their sons be allowed to return after their commitment has concluded. Novosibirsk officials have refused to allow the protest but met with thirty of the protest leaders under heavy security. The protest leaders left the meeting refusing to talk to the media out of fear. Journalists were prohibited from attending the meeting.
A field hospital in Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast, Russia, caught on fire due to faulty wiring. There were no casualties.
A criminal investigation was started against security employees who shot five Russian veterans with a gas pistol during a bar brawl in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Sakhalin Oblast, Russia.
A Russian milblogger reported that Western sanctions are making it difficult for Russian military personnel to obtain rechargeable batteries to operate their handheld radio communications. They are relying on purchasing batteries from China, and even reportedly are trying to use 3-D printers to print batteries in an underground factory in occupied Luhansk Oblast.
Russia announced the start of building the large landing ship Vladimir Andreev at the Yantar shipyard on the Baltic Sea in Kaliningrad Oblast.
The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that occupation authorities have purchased 34,000 Russian textbooks to indoctrinate Ukrainian children in occupied Kherson Oblast. Occupation police continue to visit schools to inform Ukrainian students on possible punishments if they speak against Russia and encourage them to turn in their pro-Ukrainian classmates.
Finland claims that Russian border guards are pushing migrants into the no-man zone between Russia and Finland and then shutting the Russian border so they cannot return. Finland had closed their border to Russian migrants last week.