Summary: Russia maintains the initiative among most areas of the frontline with marginal advances in all but the Zaporizhia Front. Ukraine is suffering from the US cutoff of aid and no longer has the defensive weaponry to effectively hold back Russian advances.
Sloboda Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian and Russian forces continue positional engagements northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka (6 miles NE of Kupyansk). Ukraine destroyed nine Russian tanks and 19 armored vehicles last Wednesday (December 20). Russian forces have advanced in a forest area near Synkivka.
Ukrainian and Russian forces continue positional engagements west of Kreminna. Russia has made a marginal gain east of Yampolivka (12 miles W of Kreminna) and south of Dibrova (6 miles W of Kreminna). Russian sources also claim that Russia forces advanced towards Torske (11.5 miles W of Kreminna), but this has not been confirmed.
Siversky Donets Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continue to push back Ukrainian forces from their gains around Bakhmut made during the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Russian forces have been confirmed advancing along a section of the railway east of Klishchiivka (5 miles S of Bakhmut) and have advanced in the dacha region on the northwest outskirts of Klishchiivka. Russian sources also claim that Russian forces have pushed Ukrainian forces out of positions near Bohdanivka (4.5 miles W of Bakhmut), advanced near Khromove (on the western outskirts of Bakhmut), and towards Ivanivske (4 miles W of Bakhmut), but these advances have not been confirmed.
Ukrainian forces made some positional gains to the east of Klishchiivka towards the water reservoirs.
Russian forces made some confirmed advances south and southwest of Spirne (18.5 miles NE of Bakhmut).
Russian sources claim that Russian forces have begun a new campaign towards Vyimka (16 miles NE of Bakhmut) from their positions in occupied Berestove (15.5 miles NE of Bakhmut), and have made some advances which has not yet been confirmed.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continue their assault to capture Avdiivka. Russian forces made a confirmed advance northwest of Krasnohorivka (5 miles N of Avdiivka) and northeast of Stepove (5 miles NW of Avdiivka). Russian forces also advanced northeast of Opytne (3 miles SW of Avdiivka). Russian sources also claim that Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from the Avdiivka Coke Plant in the northwestern outskirts of Avdiivka, and that Russian forces have advanced 650 feet towards Novokalynove (8 miles N of Avdiivka), advanced towards Ocheretyne (9.5 miles NW of Avdiivka), and near the industrial zone in the southeast corner of Avdiivka. None of these claims have been confirmed.
Russian sources claim that Russian forces advanced another 500 feet from positions in Vodiane (5 miles SW of Avdiivka) towards Pervomaiske (2.5 miles W of Vodiane) and Nevelske (5 miles SW of Vodiane), but this has not been confirmed.
Russian forces made marginal advances towards Novomykhailivka (18.5 miles SW of occupied Donetsk) from the southeast. Russian sources claim that Russian forces have reached the southwestern outskirts of the city as well and have gained some ground to the north starting to surround the city. This has not been confirmed.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None
Russian forces made a major assault on Staromaiorske but were repelled by Ukrainian defenders.
Russian sources claim that Russian forces have made some positional gains west and south of Robotyne, but this has not been confirmed.
Left Bank Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces have made some confirmed advances in Krynky and now control about two-thirds of the settlement. This was mostly accomplished by committing war crimes using chemical weapons against Ukrainian troops.
Thursday, December 21
Ukraine conducted a successful hit on a Russian ammunition depot in occupied Mariupol that resulted in taking out ten Russian soldiers and destroying large amounts of ammunition.
Russia launched 35 military drones against targets throughout Ukraine, but all except one were intercepted by Ukrainian air defense systems. There were no casualties resulting from the attacks.
Russian shelled the town of Toretsk, between Bakhmut and Avdiivka, causing the death of three civilians and the injury of five others. A multi-story residential apartment building was destroyed as well as the heavy destruction of a nearby mine which was the main employment for its citizens. Here is a video clip of the destruction of the apartment building.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that Russia has failed to accomplish its four goals of its 2022 invasion of Ukraine – complete occupation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia Oblasts; the dismantling of the Ukrainian army to destroy its ability to resist future Russian demands; the capitulation of the Ukrainian government to be replaced by a government of Russia’s choosing; and a declaration of Ukrainian neutrality to prohibit Ukraine’s right to choose its own diplomatic and military partnerships. But he added that this failure is only temporary, and Russia will continue its efforts to reach these four goals and only Western support for Ukraine can ensure that Putin fails.
The Institute for the Study of War also made an assessment that Ukraine will collapse in the current stalemate without continued military assistance from the West.
US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby predicted that Russia would launch a new offensive in January or February 2024 when the ground freezes which is more conducive for mechanized maneuver warfare. And with Ukraine having been cut off from US support and thus low on defensive arms, it will be very difficult to stop Russian advances and it is likely Avdiivka will finally fall.
Japan has been limited by their own constitution in directly assisting Ukraine militarily. But a revision in their military export policy will allow Japan to assist Ukraine indirectly. The change allows Japan to build weapons for export to countries where the license originated. This means that Japan will begin building and exporting Patriot missiles to the US, who then can send them to Ukraine. Likewise, Japan will begin building artillery shells for export to the United Kingdom who will then send them on to Ukraine. Russia responded by declaring that joint military exercises among Japan, the U.S., and Australia pose a security threat to Russia.
The Polish trucker and farmer blockade of the Ukrainian/Polish border crossings has continued for over a month as Polish truckers complain that Ukrainian truckers are taking advantage of the temporary suspension of permits created to make it easier for Ukrainian trucks to bring humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The blockaders claim that these truckers are delivering goods to Poland and bringing commercial products back to Ukraine. Ukraine’s Minister of Infrastructure Oleksandr Kubrakov met with his newly installed Polish counterpart Dariusz Klimczak to provide evidence that these accusations are not valid. The newly elected Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has pledged to resolve this conflict. It is estimated that the Ukrainian economy has lost $1 billion because of this blockade.
The US Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control announced sanctions against four ship managers exporting Russian oil above the international sanction cap of $60 per barrel. These ship managers come from Russia, Hong Kong, and the United Arab Emirates.
The US Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith stated that North Korea continues to provide military equipment and ammunition to Russia in exchange for fighter aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, armored vehicles, and ballistic missiles.
Former journalist and city-councilor Ekaterina Duntsova has filed her candidacy for Russian president. Prosecutors immediately summoned her for questioning, but the Central Election Commission confirmed her application was in order. She is running under a campaign of peace with all countries including Ukraine. She now must gather thousands of signatures to be placed on the ballot. Although Putin is expected to win, Duntsova presents his biggest threat in winning a near unanimous vote as he desires.
Russian opposition published a joint investigation that found that Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are providing cotton cellulose to Russia, a key component in the manufacture of gunpowder, in violation of international sanctions.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Russia’s biggest friend in the EU and NATO, gave his annual address where he insisted on referring to the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a “military operation” which is the propaganda line of the Russian military which insists they are not at war with Ukraine but are securing the safety and rights of Russian people living in Ukraine by destroying their homes and businesses, and killing their children.
Russian ultranationalist leader created an incident between Uzbekistan and Russia when he declared that Russia should annex portions of Uzbekistan where labor migrants to Russia originate. The Uzbek Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Russian Ambassador to Uzbekistan Oleg Malginov to explain Russia’s official response to this declaration. Malginov assured Uzbekistan that they have no plans to carry out such an annexation, like what they promised Ukraine decades ago as well.
Russia continues its military expansion into the Sahel States of Africa – Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger – as well as the Central African Republic. The Russian military has been replacing the Wagner Forces who have been supporting the regimes of these countries that have overthrown their legitimate governments.
President Putin signed a decree that will increase social support for families with children affected by the war within the occupied regions of Ukraine. Although it sounds humanitarian, its main goal is to deport children from the occupied regions to Russia. The decree offers a one-time payment of $1075 to families whose children were injured because of the war. But these families are required to have exchanged their Ukrainian passport for a Russian passport. This also will make Ukrainian families more dependent on Russian assistance and allow Russia to collect information on their children. But most disturbing is a clause in the decree that these children travel to Russia for rest and medical treatment. One incident was reported of a train containing over a hundred Ukrainian children from occupied Luhansk being sent back to Luhansk after attending a propaganda camp in Tyumen, Russia. The train was stopped as it passed through Penza, Russia, after one girl died of Acute Respiratory Viral Infection (AFVI). A total of 86 children have been hospitalized from that group of children suffering from AFVI.
President Putin signed a set of orders to the Russian Ministry of Defense to conduct the next round of conscription in the Fall of 2024 using the new digital register designed to improve the issuing of military summonses and prevent draft dodging. It also allows citizens to register for military service online.
Friday, December 22
Ukraine shot down three Russian SU-34 attack aircraft near Krynky on the left bank of the Dnipro River. Each plane is worth $50 million making it a very expensive day for Russia. Russia is expected to end its gliding bomb attacks on Kherson region because of this great loss demonstrated by the much improving Ukrainian air defense systems provided by the West.
Russia launched 28 military drones against Ukraine with air defense systems intercepting 24 of them. Port infrastructure was struck in Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts. A multi-story residential building was hit in Kyiv by falling debris injuring two civilians.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that Putin has “lost Ukraine altogether” and can “no longer achieve its war goals” echoing the claims from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken the day before. Ukraine has issued a statement of concern over these positive statements noting that Russia has not voiced the end of achieving their goals against Ukraine and will simply shift those goals to the next year. The West must remain vigil in their defense of Ukraine if Russia is ever to be defeated.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte confirmed that Ukraine will receive the first of the pledged 18 F-16 fighter jets before the end of this year.
US President Joe Biden signed an executive order granting the US Treasury Department the power to impose sanctions on banks and other financial institutions that facilitate Russian evasion of sanctions.
Newly appointed Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski made his first state visit to Kyiv to confirm Poland’s continued support of Ukraine in its war against Russia.
Russian losses have been high along the whole front, and Russia is busy recruiting 1000-1200 new recruits each day and sending them immediately to the front with no training to replenish their losses.
Documents have been leaked that show Russia is planning on conscripting Ukrainian children born in 2007 into the Russian army to fight against their own country which is a war crime.
The Wall Street Journal released a report naming President Putin’s close ally and Secretary of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, as the individual responsible for the assassination of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin. With Putin’s permission, Patrushev had a bomb planted on the wing of Prigozhin’s jet.
Saturday, December 23
Russia launched nine drones against Ukrainian targets and all drones were intercepted by air defense systems.
Satellite images have shown that most of the Russian fleet has retreated from occupied Sevastopol after 20% of its fleet has been destroyed since the beginning of the renewed invasion by Russia. All that remains in the Sevastopol navy base is two corvettes, two landing ships, one frigate, and a bulk carrier. The satellite images also show that Russia has not repaired the devastating damage done to the port back in September.
The New York Times released a report that President Putin is using back channels to signal his interest in a ceasefire, despite his public statements to the contrary. The Institute for the Study of War reported that this is most likely a ploy to slow down western support of Ukraine while giving Russia a breather to rebuild their forces in the region.
Ukraine continues to successfully fight corruption. A high-ranking defense minister was arrested for embezzling over $40 million by purchasing artillery at overpriced margins. The shells were being purchased at a smaller amount and he was pocketing the difference.
President Biden signed the largest military budget in history which only included a mere $300 million in support for Ukraine. This is a shame as we promised to guarantee Ukraine’s border if it dismantled its nuclear defenses. We have reneged on another ally in the world. Who will ever trust the US in the future?
Russian presidential candidate Ekaterina Duntsova had her application for candidacy thrown out because of “some mistakes” made in her application. This was after the Central Election Commission had confirmed that everything was in order just two days earlier. Duntsova was positioned to embarrass President Putin who wants an overwhelming vote. Duntsova said she will appeal the decision to the Supreme Court and has also turned to Russia’s oldest opposition party Yabloko to nominate her as their candidate.
Artillery shells supplied by North Korea to Russia are proving to be of very poor quality with shells exploding while still in the barrels injuring Russian soldiers.
Polish farmers have agreed to end their blockade of one Ukrainian border allowing Ukrainian trucks free access again. But the truckers blocking the other three borders are still refusing to end their blockade and allow only three trucks an hour to pass through (one truck per border crossing).