Summary: Very little change on the front lines over the last two days, but Russia still has the initiative this winter.
Sloboda Front – Initiative Russia – Current Target: Recapture Kupyansk
Positional fighting continues but there were no confirmed or claimed advances in the sector.
Siversky Donets Front – Initiative Russia – Current Targets: Zherebets River, Siversk, Chasiv Yar
Zherebets River – Russian forces claimed to have advanced another two miles in the Serebrianska Forest (8.5 miles SW of Kreminna), but this has not been confirmed.
Chasiv Yar (Around Bakhmut) – Russian forces made some confirmed advances southwest of Bakhmut towards Klishchiivka.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia – Current Targets: Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Novomykhailivka, and to advance from occupied Marinka.
Novomykhailivka – Russian forces made confirmed advances in the southern outskirts of Novomykhailivka and to the northeast as they attempt to encircle the town. Ukrainian sources claim that Ukrainian forces pushed them back out of the city, but this is not confirmed.
Around Marinka – Russian sources continue to claim that Russian troops are advancing in the eastern outskirts of Heorhiivka (3 miles NW of Marinka), but there is not confirmation they have entered the city.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia – Target: Recapture Robotyne
Positional fighting continues but there were no confirmed or claimed advances in the sector. Russian sources claim that Ukrainian forces have regained some territory lost bringing Ukrainian troops closer to Novoprokopivka (3 miles S of Robotyne), but there is no confirmation of this reversal. Russian forces also claim to have retaken territory west of Verbove, but this has not been confirmed.
Left Bank Front – Initiative Russia – Current Target: Recapture Krynky
Russian forces made confirmed advances southwest of Krynky.
Three drones against energy targets in Oryol (100 miles north of Ukraine border and 200 miles S of Moscow) were launched on Tuesday. All three made it past Russian air defenses. One drone struck an oil depot, and another hit a building owned by energy producer Oryolenergo. The third drone struck a non-residential structure. Three people were injured in the attack in which Ukraine has not taken credit.
Russia claimed that Ukraine conducted an attack on the village of Gornal a mile from the border killing an elderly woman. Ukraine denies that they attacked the village.
Russian attacks over the last two days has killed 1 civilian and injured 17.
- Eleven civilians were injured in a missile attack on Kharkiv yesterday which struck a central hotel where 30 people were residing at the time. A child healthcare unit was also struck, but fortunately there were no casualties. This was the fourth day in a row that Russia attacked Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, with missiles.
- Russia launched two missiles at the village of Vilkhuvatka near Kupyansk. One missile hit an elementary school and the other hit a home killing a 48-year-old woman.
- Over twenty communities were shelled in the Kharkiv region near Kupyansk. An elderly man and woman were injured in Dvorichna.
- Russia conducted 73 attacks on civilians in Kherson Oblast striking a bank, a school, a factory, and several residences. Two civilians were injured in the city of Kherson.
- Russian shelling of the frontline city of Avdiivka resulted in the injuries of two people.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that 1620 Russian soldiers were killed or injured over the last two days bring the total casualty count to 366,790 since the renewed invasion in February 2022.
A Ukrainian hacker group attacked Russian M9 Telecom crashing the internet and television to many residents of Moscow. That attack was made in retaliation for Russia’s attack against Ukrainian telecom provider Kyivstar last month.
The official death toll in the missile and drone attack on Kyiv on December 29th has increased to 33 after another body was found in the rubble. It is the single most deadly attack on Kyiv since the Russian invasion of February 2022. The death toll in the attack on Khmelnitsky on Monday has risen to three as another body was found in the rubble. (Marina is from this region, but none of her relatives were harmed).
After a barrage of missiles being fired on Ukraine over the New Year’s holiday, Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat reported that Ukraine has a shortage of anti-aircraft guided missiles to adequately defend against future attacks. And since the US Republican Congress will not even talk about providing Ukraine with the necessary air defense, President Biden has turned to venture capital firms and the defense industry to provide Ukraine with the weapons they need to defend themselves.
Ukraine has purchased 50,000 uniforms for women and the international news is vitriolic in their reporting on this making such statements as Ukraine is preparing to “exterminate” women by drafting them into the army. There are no plans at this moment of drafting women, but 43,000 women do defend Ukraine in the military on the frontline, and more and more are joining (even my wife Marina has mentioned she is thinking of joining the military). In contrast, only 1100 Russian women are fighting on the front lines.
The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology published a survey that shows Ukrainians overwhelmingly support the military and President Zelensky’s handling of the war against Russia. The military overall had the support of 96% of Ukraine with Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhny garnering an amazing 88% approval. Even President Zelensky has the trust of 2/3 of all Ukrainians.
To be fair, Russian President Vladimir Putin is also widely popular in Russia with 2/3 of all Russians approving of his genocide against Ukraine according to the National Opinion Research Center in Chicago.
Russian sources are abuzz that Russia’s goal goes beyond the annexation of the five regions of Ukraine they now claim as theirs, but also plan on capturing the major border cities of Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv.
Ukrainian forces recently shot down a Russian drone which confirms Russia’s claim of a faster and more deadly drone being developed. The Shahed-238 is 2.5 times faster than previous drones and carries a payload which is six times more destructive. They are more expensive to produce and have a shorter range though.
A Bloomberg article reported that the International Peace Plan talks in December failed to bring about an agreed upon approach to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Although the Western nations were supportive of the Peace Plan proposed by Ukraine, countries like India, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey were not. Brazil did not attend but sent a note on their position. China and the United Arab Emirates stayed away from the talks.
Russian occupation forces in Crimea have illegally imprisoned 204 Ukrainian citizens, including 123 Crimean Tatars, and are investigating another 625. We must not forget about the Russian mistreatment of the Crimean people.
Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba shared in an interview that Ukraine is in talks with the US and EU about transferring the $300 billions of Russian frozen assets in their countries to Ukraine to be used to rebuild the country that Russia has destroyed. Kuleba estimates that this will cover 80% of the damage done to Ukraine so far.
Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo took the helm of the European Union on Tuesday and pledged that the EU will increase its support of Ukraine. This was followed by the EU announcement that they will begin providing Ukraine one million artillery shells by spring 2024 and will beef up their production to match Russia’s production of artillery shells. But it will take an estimated 18 months to reach Russia’s level of production. Lithuania announced $220 million in military aid to Ukraine.
President Zelensky began his visit to the three Baltic countries who have been the biggest supporters of Ukraine in this war against Russia (they know they are next). Zelensky met with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte, and other government officials in Vilnius and thanked them for their support. He made an international plea for more air defense systems admitting that Ukraine does not have the ability to make their own.
A joint declaration condemning North Korea for supplying Russia with ballistic missiles was signed by 48 countries and the EU.
Tuesday was the deadline for Ukrainian legislators to submit a mobilization bill for consideration. Five bills were submitted including the initial bill submitted by Zelensky’s administration which will surely not pass as it removes constitutional rights from draft dodgers. The Ukrainian Rada will now get down to the business of improving a bill which will surely contain many amendments to whichever bill is finally approved.
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs released a report that predicts 40% of Ukrainians still living in Ukraine will need humanitarian assistance in 2024.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban softened his opposition to the EU providing $50 billion in military aid to Ukraine over the next four years if the EU agrees to review the aid each year.
Serbian mercenaries in the Russian army issued a complaint that they are being forced to conduct assaults under threat of violence and without proper ammunition being provided. These soldiers do not have a leg to stand on as their country has charged them with war crimes for fighting with Russia. Russia has offered them citizenship for their service, if they survive.
The Moldovan government has gotten the Russian oligarchs who occupy Transnistria region of Moldova in a flux as they prepare to join the European Union. These Russian occupation leaders are cashing in on Moldova’s trade treaties with the European Union. But now Moldova will begin charging customs, like all countries do, and these Russian separatists are threatening to create unrest throughout Moldova over this. European intelligence services are reporting on Russian plans to create a false-flag event to justify a Russian invasion of Moldova as well. It is time to remove Russia from Moldova as well. And let’s not forget that Russia has also occupied Abkhazia and South Ossetia, regions within Georgia where my son is now heading as a US Marine to defend our embassy in Tbilisi, Georgia.
Remnants of the Wagner Group continue to train the Belarusian military which just received five million rounds of ammunition from Russia.
Source Material
- Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
- The Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com
- The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com