Summary: Russia made marginal advances towards Avdiivka.
Human Cost Of The War
Russia conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine launching 14 drones and six missiles. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted eleven of the drones and one of the missiles. Drones and missiles mainly civilian targets. 3 Ukrainian civilians were killed and 31 injured.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Sloboda Front – Initiative Russia – Current Target: Recapture Kupyansk
Positional fighting continues but there were no confirmed nor claimed advances in the sector. Russian troops have doubled their level of artillery fire.
Siversky Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia – Current Targets: Zherebets River, Siversk, & Chasiv Yar
Positional fighting continues but there were no confirmed advances in the sector. Russian forces claimed to have advanced towards Terny and Bilohorivka, but this has not been confirmed. The area around Bilohorivka has been costly for Russian troops due to heavy mining in that area.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia – Current Targets: Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Novomykhailivka, and to advance from occupied Marinka
Avdiivka – Russian forces have advanced southwest of Stepove (5 miles NW of Avdiivka) and have advanced towards Avdiivka up Sportyvna Street from the Tsarska Okhota restaurant. Ukrainian forces claim they have advanced towards the restaurant to cut off Russian troops moving up Sportyvna Street, but this has not been confirmed. Russia has been using fewer armored vehicles in the Battle for Avdiivka due to heavy losses. Russian troop seem to be preparing for a frontal assault on Avdiivka after failing to encircle the city.
Novomykhailivka – Ukrainian forces claim to have advanced a mile south of Novomykhailivka, but this has not been confirmed. Russian forces have had the initiative here, but a lack of rest might be allowing Ukrainian forces to reverse those gains.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia – Targets: Recapture Staromaiorske, Urozhaine, & Robotyne
Positional fighting continues but neither side made any confirmed advances. Ukraine forces claim to have advanced 500 feet northeast of Zavitne Bazhannya (8 miles S of Velyka Novosilka). Ukrainian forces also claim to have advanced a half-mile into the Russian defense zone southwest of Myrne (11 miles SW of Orikhiv).
Left Bank Front – Initiative Russia – Current Target: Recapture Krynky
Positional fighting continues but there were no confirmed nor claimed advances in the sector.
Ukraine News
Both Ukraine and Russia authorities opened criminal investigations in the January 24 Russian Il-76 military aircraft crash in Belgorod Oblast, Russia. Ukrainian authorities are investigating the circumstances of the crash, and Russian authorities are building a case against Ukraine which they have charged with terrorism. The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting called by Russia to discuss the crash. Russia claims that 65 Ukrainian POWs were on that plane in route to being exchanged for Russian POWs, but Russia has provided no evidence that Ukrainian POWs were actually on the plane. Russia claims that they gave a 15-minute warning to Ukraine to secure the airspace, but only after Ukraine reported that no such warning was given. Russia released a list of names of the POWs that they claim were on the plane, but many of the names are of former prisoners already swapped in previous POW exchanges. Photos and satellite images of the crash site do not indicate that many people were on that plane. As a matter of fact, only the six Russian crewmen’s bodies have been shown. Russia has refused to allow anyone to the site to verify the number of victims. And suspiciously, all the Russian officers that were to accompany the prisoners were not allowed to board at the last minute as if it was known the plane would crash.
Ukrainian officials claim that Russia is using tear gas with Riot Control Agent (RCA) against Ukrainian troops in Krynky. They have logged over 130 instances of RCA being dropped on Ukrainian troops since December 2023 which kills all troops in a dugout or enclosed room within five minutes. Russia has admitted using RCA even though they signed the Chemical Weapons Convention with prohibits its use.
The International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi will personally lead the 16th rotation of IAEA monitors to the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant. After he personally inspects the nuclear reactors, he will head to Kyiv and then Moscow to report on his safety concerns.
Two Ukrainian teenagers abducted by Russia from occupied Krynky (now liberated by Ukraine) have been returned to their parents in Ukraine. This leaves another 19,998 Ukrainian children whom Russia has stolen to be returned to Ukraine.
Ukraine Ally Support
The European Union has begun assessing Ukrainian legislation for compliance with EU laws as the first step to Ukraine joining the EU.
The EU and Lithuania pledged $16.7 million to build bomb shelters in Ukrainian schools.
The U.S. Senate has passed a bill that allows the U.S. government to confiscate Russian-owned assets and turn them over to Ukraine for reconstruction costs. A similar bill had already been passed in the House of Representatives. The two bills will now go to a joint commission to work out the differences.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held a press conference with Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico by challenging Fico’s statements that Ukraine can end this war by going to the negotiation table. Scholz challenged that view by stating that Russia can end this war at any time and that if Ukraine stopped defending themselves, they would cease to exist as a nation.
Germany announced they plan on providing 80 Leopard tanks, 230,000 rounds of ammunition, as well as an unspecified number of armored personnel carriers, drones, mine clearing systems, radar systems, and reconnaissance systems to Ukraine in 2024.
The UK and Sweden have announced their participation in the joint drone production coalition between Latvia and Ukraine.
Estonia plans on providing military aid worth 0.25% of their GDP to Ukraine over the next four years.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis arrived in Kyiv to show his countries’ support of Ukraine stating, “I am back in the capital city of the most inspirational Europeans I ever met, finding out how Lithuania can help even more”.
Bloomberg released a report showing that American microchip companies had supplied Russia with $1 billion worth of microchips in violation of international sanctions which Russia has used to build missiles to fire in Ukraine. The amount of damage caused by these companies greatly surpasses the amount the U.S. has supplied Ukraine in military and financial assistance.
Russia News
Ukraine launched a successful drone strike on a Rosneft oil refinery in Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai causing an explosion and fire. The refinery has 112 tons of gasoline and 200 tons of fuel oil at the time of the strike.
Ukraine successfully struck a drone training center in occupied Ilovaisk, Donetsk Oblast, killing 24 personnel.
Former Donetsk rebel leader Igor Girkin was sentenced to four years in prison on extremism charges after he criticized the Russian military for its failures in Ukraine. Daria Trepova was sentenced to 27 years in prison for the assassination of pro-Russian milblogger Maksim Fomin.
Russia has ended their recruitment of prison convicts with offers of pardons. Nearly 20% of prison convicts had been recruited so far, but the program was deemed too expensive for what it produced.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Militaryland.net (maps)