Summary: Russia has launched its 2024 Winter-Spring Offensive with the goal of pushing Ukrainian forces back over the Zherebets River in the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border area.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Sloboda Front – Initiative Russia – Target: Recapture Kupyansk
Siversky Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia – Targets: Zherebets River, Siversk, & Chasiv Yar
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia – Targets: Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Novomykhailivka, & advance from occupied Marinka
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None – Targets: Staromaiorske, Urozhaine, & Robotyne
Dnipro Left Bank Front – Initiative None – Target: Krynky
Positional fighting continues daily in all five sectors of the frontline. Here is a synopsis of confirmed and claimed advances since my last report (color coded for sectors)
Russia had made the claim on Sunday that they had captured Tabaivka (14 miles SE of Kupyansk) which Ukraine denied. Then on Monday they claimed that they had again captured Tabaivka, which Ukraine denied. Well, Russia now admits that they were wrong the last two days and captured Tabaivka today. Ukraine still denies it and there is no confirmation that Tabaivka is under Russian control. Russian forces are even claiming they have begun fighting for Pishchane (3 miles SW of Tabaivka). Russian forces have also claimed that Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from Kotlyarivka (2.5 miles NE of Tabaivka) and Kyslivka (3 miles NE of Tabaivka) as well as from positions west of Synkivka (6 miles NE of Kupyansk). Although none of these claims have been confirmed, the fact that this area is the main target of the Russian 2024 Winter-Spring Offensive may prove that they are overwhelming Ukrainian troops in this area and that Ukrainian troops are withdrawing to stronger positions.
Russian forces have captured and cleared some positions in the dacha area southwest of Bakhmut on the highway towards Ivanivske (4 miles E of Chasiv Yar).
Ukrainian forces have retaken positions 2 miles north of Horlivka (20 miles S of Bakhmut).
Heavy fighting continues over control of the area around the Tsarska Okhota restaurant just south of Avdiivka, but no changes have been made on the ground. Russian forces claim to have advanced near Pervomaiske, but that has not been confirmed.
Russian forces conducted a heavy assault towards Novomykhailivka but were stopped by Ukrainian forces and suffered heavy losses. Geolocated footage shows that Russia lost two tanks, six armored fighting vehicles, and one infantry fighting vehicle in the attack.
Human Cost Of The War
Russia launched 35 drones and two missiles at various targets throughout eastern and central Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense shot down 15 the drones. The reason most drones made it through as they were targeting frontline positions.
6 Ukrainian civilians were killed and 14 injured today from Russian attacks:
- Russia fired artillery at civilian structures in Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast such as homes and multi-story apartment buildings killing one woman and injuring one person.
- Attacks on civilians in Znob-Novohorodske, Sumy Oblast resulted in the deaths of two civilians and one injury.
- A man in Yunakiv, Sumy Oblast was killed.
- An attack on Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast killed one person and injured another.
- An attack on Zmiiv, Kharkiv Oblast, injured two men with one being hospitalized and the other treated on the spot.
- Debris from a intercepted drone fell on a truck in Mykolaiv Oblast injuring the driver and causing a fire. The driver suffered a brain injury but is in stable condition.
- A drone attack on Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast targeted pedestrians walking on the street injuring two people.
- An artillery attack on Niu York, Donetsk Oblast, wounded a man in his yard.
- A home in Kharkiv was attacked by drones injuring three people.
- A Russian drone dropped bombs on residential buildings in Beryslav, Kherson Oblast killing a man and injured another man when drones bombed a humanitarian aid center.
- A woman was injured during artillery attack in the village of Tokarivka, Kherson Oblast. She suffered shrapnel wounds to her head, abdomen, and legs, and lost one finger.
Homes in Avdiivka hit with artillery
Russian attack on civilians in Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast
Ukraine News
Ukrainian officials continue to deny rumors that Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhny has been dismissed, but they are not denying whether he resigned.
Transparency International released their corruption report for 2023. Ukraine saw much improvement moving from 116th place (out of 180 countries) to 104th place in 2023. Russia dropped four positions from 137th to 141st place.
Russia
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated that he is interested in finally signing a peace treaty with Russia (the two countries never signed a peace agreement ending World War II) and resolving its territorial disputes including the Kuril Islands which Russia has occupied. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev made an offensive reply that there was nothing to negotiate as the Kuril Islands were Russian territory and will never be returned to Japan and criticized Japan for their alliance with the United States.
The UK Ministry of Defense claims that Russia is still able to produce 100 tanks a month and is therefore able to replace the high number of tanks they are losing in battle. Likewise, Russia can replace the missiles they are firing at Ukraine. This suggests that international sanctions are not working.
Russia Ally Support
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has signaled his willingness to end his blockade of the €50 billion EU military aid package to Ukraine under pressure of other EU States of removing Hungary’s voting rights even though Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has stated he would not allow Hungary to lose their rights and unanimity is required.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said during a press briefing the day after his meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Uzhhorod that there was a long road ahead before Prime Minister Viktor Orban would meet with President Zelensky to settle the differences between Ukraine and Hungary. Kuleba was more diplomatic by praising Orban for being pro-Hungarian suggesting that he should not be referred to as pro-Russian.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Militaryland.net (maps)