Summary: Russian forces have made marginal advances along the front lines and have officially entered the city of Avdiivka.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Sloboda Front – Initiative Russia – Target: Recapture Kupyansk
Siversky Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia – Targets: Zherebets River, Siversk, & Chasiv Yar
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia – Targets: Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Novomykhailivka, & advance from occupied Marinka
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None – Targets: Staromaiorske, Urozhaine, & Robotyne
Dnipro Left Bank Front – Initiative None – Target: Krynky
Positional fighting continues daily in all five sectors of the frontline. Here is a synopsis of confirmed and claimed advances since my last report (color coded for sectors)
Ukrainian sources have reported that Russian forces have established a foothold in a forest area north of Synkivka (6 miles NE of Kupyansk).
Russian forces made marginal advances toward Ivanivske (4 miles E of Chasiv Yar).
It has been confirmed that Russian forces have entered the southeast suburbs of Avdiivka moving up Sportyvna Street. Russian forces have also advanced west of Solodke (4.5 miles S of Novomykhailivka) but at a heavy cost losing a whole company’s worth of heavy armored vehicles. Russian forces also advance northeast of Novomykhailivka.
Russian forces have claimed to have advanced 1500 feet north of Priyutne (11 miles SW of Velyka Novosilka). But this has not been confirmed.
Russian forces conducted a large unsuccessful assault on Krynky resulting in the loss of 70% of their forces.
Human Cost Of The War
Russia launched 20 drones and four missiles at various targets throughout eastern and central Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense shot down 14 the drones.
2 Ukrainian civilians were killed and 20 injured today from Russian attacks:
- A Russian attack on a residential home in Tiahynka, Kherson Oblast, injured a man in his home giving him a shrapnel wound to his arm.
- A Russian drone attacked two women in their 60s who were riding a motorcycle. Both were hospitalized with blast injuries and shrapnel wounds, but are in stable condition.
- Two Russian missiles struck civilian targets in Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast injuring six people.
- One person was killed in an attack on Avdiivka.
- Two people were injured in an attack on Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast.
- A person was injured in an attack on Niu-York.
- Six drones attacked civilians in Kharkiv injuring three men and a woman.
- There were 53 attacks throughout Kherson Oblast killing one person and injuring three others.
- A drone struck an agricultural warehouse in Mykolaiv Oblast injuring one person.
Image from attacks on Kharkiv
The Ukraine General Staff reported that Russia suffered 1090 casualties on January 31.
Ukraine News
Ukraine fired Storm Shadow cruise missiles at Russian airfield Belbek in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea. Russian sources claim they were all intercepted but geolocated footage shows several explosions at the airfield. It is not yet known what was damaged.
Ukraine successfully hit an oil depot in St. Petersburg, Russia with a drone strike.
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange. Ukraine released 195 Russian POWs and received 207 Ukrainian POWs. None of the 65 POWs that Russia claims were on board the II-76 plane that crashed last week were part of the exchange.
The European Union stated they will not be able to provide the one million artillery shells they had promised to Ukraine by March 2024. They said they will only be able to provide 600,000 due to the paucity of production.
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate conducted a devastating cyberattack on the Russian Ministry of Defense communications server having installed hacking software on the server.
The Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers submitted a new draft law on mobilization that has removed all the restrictions of constitutional rights for draft dodgers. But the heart of the bill remains lowering the mobilization age to 25 and extending the length of service to three years.
Ukraine’s Allies
Russian threatened Moldova with unrest if it continues to attempt to join the European Union as Russia has occupation forces in Transnistria, Moldova.
Estonia is accusing Russia of conducting hybrid warfare against their country by jamming GPS systems in the Baltic region.
Germany pledged another 24 armored personal carriers, four all-terrain vehicles, an unspecified number of missiles, 1000 rounds of ammunition, three mine clearing trucks, 14 mine ploughs, one naval clearance system, and one surveillance system.
US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland to show America’s support in Ukraine defeating Russia.
Russia
President Putin made it clear at a meeting with his election “proxies” that Russia will continue its maximalist goals of annexing territory captured from Ukraine, the complete demilitarization of Ukraine, Ukrainian regime change, and a constitutional amendment forbidding Ukraine to build international alliances other than with Russia. He added Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, to the list of territories that Russia now demands. He also hinted that Odesa and Mykolaiv are also on the list.
The Russian Duma unanimously passed a bill that allows the government to seize the property of those who criticize the Russian military.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Militaryland.net (maps)