Summary: Russian forces continue to inch towards the Kyslivka on the Sloboda Front and Chasiv Yar near Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces made a marginal advance along the Zaporizhia Front near Staromaiorske. Ukraine sunk a Russian corvette ship. The EU finally passed its $54 billion military aid package to Ukraine.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Sloboda Front – Initiative Russia – Target: Recapture Kupyansk
Siversky Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia – Targets: Zherebets River, Siversk, & Chasiv Yar
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia – Targets: Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Novomykhailivka, & advance from occupied Marinka
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None – Targets: Staromaiorske, Urozhaine, & Robotyne
Dnipro Left Bank Front – Initiative None – Target: Krynky
Positional fighting continues daily in all five sectors of the frontline. Here is a synopsis of confirmed and claimed advances since my last report (color coded for sectors)
One of Russia’s main objectives is the capture of Kyslivka (13.5 miles SE of Kupyansk) as it controls the high ground over a strategic railway line. Russian forces have taken the small village of Krokhmalne (4.5 miles S of Kyslivka) and have moved up half the distance along the P07 Highway on February 1. Russian forces also claim to have captured Tabaivka (2.5 miles SW of Kyslivka) and to have entered Ivanivka (1.5 N of Kyslivka) but these claims have not been confirmed. The ultimate goal is to capture Kupyansk forcing Ukrainian forces to retreat to the west bank of the Oskil River. But it is unlikely Russia will complete that goal in the near future. Russian forces claim to have advanced near Synkivka (6 miles NE of Kupyansk) but that has not been confirmed.
Russian forces claimed to have advanced near Terny (12 miles NW of Kreminna) and Yampolivka (12 miles W of Kreminna) in an operation to push Ukrainian forces to the west bank of the Zherebets River. But these claims have not been confirmed.
Russian forces claim to have advanced west of Bakhmut towards Bohdanivka (3.5 miles NE of Chasiv Yar) and Ivanivske (4 miles E of Chasiv Yar), but these claims are not confirmed.
Russian forces made a confirmed marginal advance into the dacha area north of Avdiivka. Russian forces also claim to be moving into the southeastern suburbs of Avdiivka, but that has not been confirmed and Russia has made those false claims in the past.
Russian forces have advanced northeast of Heorhiivka (3 miles NW of Marinka). Russian forces also claimed to have advanced near Novomykhailivka, but that has not been confirmed.
Ukrainian forces advanced southwest of Staromaiorske. Russian sources claim that Ukrainian forces also captured a forest area northwest of Verbove, but that has not been confirmed.
Human Cost Of The War
Russia launched 4 drones and two missiles at various targets throughout eastern and central Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense shot down 2 of the drones.
2 civilians were killed and another 9 injured today from Russian attacks:
- Two drones hit a business in Kharkiv, but there were no casualties.
- Russia launched guided bombs against a hospital in Velykyi Burluk, Kharkiv Oblast, injuring four people.
- Two French humanitarian aid volunteers were killed and another three injured in attacks on Beryslav, Kherson Oblast. A Ukrainian civilian was also injured.
- A 57-year-old man received injuries to his arm from an attack on his home in Tiahynka, Kherson Oblast.
Ukraine News
Ukrainian forces sunk the Ivanovets corvette missile boat, which is one of only three such ships in Russia’s arsenal. Footage of the attacks suggests that there were no survivors of the forty crew.
Russia continues to refuse to return the bodies of 65 POWs that Russia claims were aboard an Il-65 transport plane that crashed. Russia continues to claim that Ukraine shot the plane down but refused to provide any evidence or allow international investigations.
Ukraine’s Allies
The EU approved a $54 billion military aid package for Ukraine for 2024-2027 after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban gave his approval as the only holdout of the aid package. The EU, which had said they will be unable to provide Ukraine with the one million rounds of artillery ammunition by March, stated that they will be able to provide that amount during 2024.
Moldova has restricted the opening of Russian polling stations in Russian-occupied Transnistria which will not allow the region to participate in the upcoming Russian presidential election.
The International Court of Justice ruled that Russia is guilty of terrorism against Ukraine. This was from a case filed by Ukraine back in 2017 and not associated with the current conflict. The court also ruled against Russia for illegally restricting the use of education in the Ukrainian language in occupied Crimea. The court did not find Russia guilty of downing the MH-17 Dutch plane nor ordered Russia to pay any reparations.
Russia
Turkish banks have started closing Russian companies’ accounts due to the threat of US secondary sanctions on banks that do business with Russian companies on the sanction list.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Militaryland.net (maps)