Summary: Russian forces made some limited advances in the Battle for Avdiivka and in pushing Ukrainian forces back towards the Zherebets River along the Siversky Donetsk Front. Russian forces also have advanced along the Zaporizhian Front.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Sloboda Front – Initiative Russia – Target: Recapture Kupyansk
Siversky Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia – Targets: Zherebets River, Siversk, & Chasiv Yar
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia – Targets: Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Novomykhailivka, & advance from occupied Marinka
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None – Targets: Staromaiorske, Urozhaine, & Robotyne
Dnipro Left Bank Front – Initiative None – Target: Krynky
Positional fighting continues daily in all five sectors of the frontline. Here is a synopsis of confirmed and claimed advances since my last report (color coded for sectors)
Russian forces claimed to have advanced another 1.5 miles towards Terny (12 miles NW of Kreminna) and Yampolivka (12 miles W of Kreminna) in an operation to push Ukrainian forces to the west bank of the Zherebets River. But these claims have not been confirmed.
Russian forces continue to advance into the dacha area north of Avdiivka and advanced east of Opytne (3 miles SW of Avdiivka). Russian forces also claim to be moving into the southeastern suburbs of Avdiivka, but this is not confirmed. Ukraine evacuated 100 citizens that had remained in the southeastern suburbs of the city.
Russian forces also claim to have bypassed Heorhiivka (3 miles NW of Marinka) to the north and advanced a half mile towards Kurakhove (10.5 miles NW of Marinka) but this has not been confirmed.
Russian forces have advanced north of Priyutne (11 miles SW of Velyka Novosilka). Russian sources claim that Russian forces have advanced west of Verbove, and that Ukrainian forces have advanced northwest of Verbove, but this has not been confirmed.
Human Cost Of The War
Russia launched 24 drones and two missiles at various targets throughout eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense shot down 11 of the drones, and an additional seven drones did not reach their targets. Most of the drones were targeting energy infrastructure.
2 civilians injured today from Russian attacks:
- An airstrike against a three-story apartment building in Kherson injured a 73-year-old womand and a 17-year-old boy. Both were hospitalized with the woman suffering from shell shock and an injured leg.
Ukraine News
Ukraine launched a drone at an oil refinery plant in Volgograd, Russia. The drone was intercepted but still fell and ignited petroleum sources on fire. No casualties were reported.
It has been confirmed that the Ukrainian missile attack on Belbek Air Base in occupied Crimea on January 31 damaged at least three planes.
Save Ukraine, a Ukrainian humanitarian NGO, announced they had rescued another four Ukrainian children that had been abducted and forcibly deported to Russia, the youngest of which was one year old. Save Ukraine has rescued 235 children so far.
Ukraine’s Allies
Ukraine scored a partial victory in its lawsuit filed with the UN International Court of Justice (ICJ) to declare Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine unjustified under international law. Russia had claimed that its invasion was in response to Ukrainian genocide against ethnic Russian people living in Eastern Ukraine. The ICJ agreed to take the case and investigate the claim of whether Ukraine was committing genocide. But the ICJ rejected the second part of the lawsuit which asked them to judge whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a violation of the 1948 Genocide Convention stating that was not under their jurisdiction and would need to be filed with the UN Security Council. 31 foreign nations were signatories to the lawsuit, the largest number in the history of the ICJ.
Lithuania delivered another round of military aid to Ukraine that includes thousands of rounds of anti-tank grenade launcher ammunition and an unspecified number of remote detonation systems.
Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to discuss steps of implementing the Peace Formula, development of security guarantees for Ukraine, and the development of a coalition of governments for the safe return of Ukrainian children abducted by Russia. They also discussed Ukraine-Canada free trade, the use of frozen Russian assets, military aid, and sanctions. President Zelensky met Joly when she arrived in Kyiv.
The Ukraine Foreign Ministry is demanding an explanation why a German ZDF television station visited occupied Mariupol for a broadcast without receiving Ukrainian permission, a violation of Ukrainian law.
Bulgarian Defense Minister Todor Tagarev reported that the 100 armored vehicles that Bulgaria promised last July are now on their way to Ukraine.
Spain has begun training Ukrainian personnel in the use of Patriot Missile systems.
Romania reached a deal with their farmers and truckers to end a border blockade against Ukraine, but Polish farmers vowed to continue their blockade.
Russia
President Putin visited a defense industrial base firm (DIB) in Tula and invoked the “Everything For Victory” slogan employed by Josef Stalin to mobilize the industrial base during World War II. Of course, Putin neglected to mention that it was the U.S. Lend-Lease program that made that industrialization possible, but now the U.S. is providing that assistance to Ukraine. Putin may be testing the waters for public response in preparation for a full-scale mobilization once the presidential elections are over to defeat Ukraine and the West.
Putin praised the 6000 enterprises with their 3.5 million workers as part of Russia’s current DIB. He claimed that this year, production was up 2.5 times over previous years despite international sanctions which were supposed to hamper such production.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russian forces have taken the “strategic initiative” along the entire frontline of Ukraine which is a departure from his previous characterization of Russian operations as “active defense”.
The reasons for this optimism and change in strategy is due to the lack of ammunition Ukraine has because of the U.S. betrayal of Ukraine in not honoring its treaty obligations in guaranteeing Ukraine’s territorial integrity when Ukraine agreed to dismantle their defensive nuclear capabilities. Europe has been unable to make up the loss in supplies denied by U.S. politicians.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Militaryland.net (maps)