Summary: Russian forces advanced towards Kupyansk, and Ukraine has retaken lost territory around Avdiivka.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Sloboda Front – Initiative Russia – Target: Recapture Kupyansk
Siversky Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia – Targets: Zherebets River, Siversk, & Chasiv Yar
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia – Targets: Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Novomykhailivka, & advance from occupied Marinka
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None – Targets: Staromaiorske, Urozhaine, & Robotyne
Dnipro Left Bank Front – Initiative None – Target: Krynky
Russian forces achieved minor territorial gains northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka as evidenced by geolocated footage. Ukrainian military analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets detailed an unsuccessful attempt by elements of Russia’s 1st Guards Tank Army to encircle Ukrainian defenders near the P07 highway. Despite initial setbacks, Russian efforts to breach Ukrainian defenses persist, with reinforcements aimed at launching another assault.
Russian forces achieved minor territorial gains west of Kreminna as evidenced by geolocated footage. Notable engagements occurred in areas including Terny, Torske, Yampolivka, Bilohorivka, and Hryhorivka.
Additionally, a Ukrainian HIMARS strike on Lysychansk, Luhansk Oblast, reportedly resulted in the death of a significant Russian occupation official, Colonel Alexei Poteleshchenko, among others, on February 3. Claims suggest the strike targeted a gathering of Russian occupation officials, although these reports remain unverified. This incident underscores the ongoing intensity and strategic maneuvers characterizing the conflict in Eastern Ukraine.
Russian forces have achieved a tactical advance in the Siversk area, pushing northward from Vesele, located about 15 kilometers southeast of Siversk, as confirmed by geolocated footage from February 3.
Meanwhile, the situation around Bakhmut remains tense with continuous positional fighting reported on February 5. No significant shifts in frontlines were noted, but engagements persisted near Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, and Ivanivske, areas flanking Bakhmut.
Ukrainian forces have made progress near Avdiivka, capturing territory northeast of Nevelske, according to geolocated footage from February 5. Despite claims from Russian sources of advances in southeastern Pervomaiske and northern Avdiivka, there is no visual confirmation to support these assertions. The area continues to experience heavy positional fighting, particularly northwest, west, and southwest of Avdiivka, involving key locations such as Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Tonenke, Sieverne, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske.
Ongoing positional engagements were reported west and southwest of Donetsk City, particularly near Krasnohorivka, Novomykhailivka, and Heorhiivka, without any significant changes in front lines. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets revealed that Russian military efforts are likely to intensify north of Novomykhailivka towards Oleksandrivka-Novomykhailivka and Marinka-Pobieda. Mashovets highlighted that Russian forces are undergoing troop and equipment reinforcements, including a tactical rotation involving Territorial Troops and assault units, to bolster their offensive capacity in these areas. This development suggests a preparation for escalated military actions near Donetsk, amidst criticism within Russian circles regarding the efficacy of recent assaults.
The Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area witnessed ongoing positional battles, particularly near Zolota Nyva and Pryyutne. Reports from both Russian and Ukrainian sources highlighted the engagement of Russian military units, including the 1466th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 26th Radiological, Chemical, and Biological Defense Regiment, in operations near strategic locations such as Staromayorske and Novodonetske. Additionally, combat footage emerged showing Ka-52 helicopters from the Russian 11th Air and Air Defense Forces Army executing aerial strikes towards Malynivka, indicating a continued military pressure in this volatile region.
In western Zaporizhia Oblast the situation remained tense with ongoing positional clashes. Despite a Russian milblogger’s claim of a potential advance by Russian troops southeast of Robotyne, it remains uncertain whether these gains have been solidified. In contrast, the Ukrainian General Staff highlighted the successful repulsion of four Russian attacks near the same area. The presence of the Russian 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment, part of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division from the 58th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District, near Robotyne underscores the strategic importance of this sector in the ongoing conflict.
In the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast, including areas around Krynky, Russian and Ukrainian military units engaged in ongoing positional battles. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger reported that Ukrainian forces are employing mobile electronic warfare (EW) systems in their attempts to cross the Dnipro River, although Russian drones continue to target Ukrainian crossing efforts effectively. However, this milblogger also acknowledged that Russian EW systems are failing to counter Ukrainian first-person view (FPV) drones effectively in the region. Contrarily, another milblogger, who has consistently highlighted the significant threat posed by Ukrainian FPV drones in east bank Kherson Oblast, mentioned that Russian forces have enhanced their capabilities to neutralize these Ukrainian drones.
Human Cost Of The War
5 Ukrainian civilians were killed and another 13 injured from Russian attacks over the last 24 hours:
- A Russian military strike in the early hours of morning leveled a three-story hotel in Zolochiv, located in the Bohodukhiv region, not far from Kharkiv, the administrative hub of the Kharkiv Oblast in Ukraine. Governor Oleh Syniehubov relayed via Telegram that rescue operations are underway; out of four individuals initially trapped, three have been extracted from the wreckage, leaving one still unaccounted for beneath the debris.
- A Russian offensive targeted the city of Kherson in southern Ukraine around midday, resulting in at least four fatalities and one injury. Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko confirmed the casualties. According to Roman Mrochko, who leads the Kherson military administration, two of the deceased, men aged 45 and 50, were killed while seated in a vehicle. Reports also included a female victim and a man aged 60 among the dead. The individual who was wounded has been admitted to a hospital for treatment.
- At approximately 5 p.m. local time, Russian forces attacked the town of Vorozhba, Sumy Oblast, using multiple-launch rocket systems, resulting in eight recorded explosions. Tragically, a 40-year-old man was killed during this assault. Additionally, two others were injured, including the man’s mother and another local resident.
- Earlier in the day, an attack on the Seredyna-Buda community in Sumy Oblast resulted in at least six civilians being injured, as reported by the local administration.
- The town of Bilopillia, Sumy Oblast, previously home to roughly 16,000 people, was heavily bombarded, with 160 explosions documented. Situated a mere eight kilometers to the south and twenty-five kilometers to the west of the border with Russia, this community bore the brunt of the day’s attacks. Casualties have not yet been reported.
Hotel in Zolochiv damaged in Russian attack.
Firefighters put out car fire in Kherson
Aftermath of Russian attack on Vorozhba, Sumy Oblast.
Ukraine News
Ukraine’s military is grappling with a significant artillery shell shortage, exacerbated by a 25% increase in Russian artillery attacks over the last week. This shortage has forced Ukrainian forces, especially in key areas like Avdiivka, to ration shells, limiting their ability to counter smaller, more tactical Russian advances. Despite having superior Western counterbattery radars, such as the American AN/TPQ series and the German COBRA system, the effectiveness of these assets is compromised without adequate ammunition. This ammunition deficit benefits Russian forces by weakening Ukraine’s counterbattery fire capabilities, underscoring the urgent need for increased Western security assistance. The situation threatens to grow direr if the ammunition supply remains bottlenecked, signaling a pressing need for expedited Western security assistance to bolster Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
Ukraine is actively decentralizing its defense industrial base to mitigate the risk of targeted attacks by dispersing drone production across six cities, with TAF Drones’ facilities relocating every three months. In January, TAF Drones produced 18,000 FPV drones, aiming for a significant increase in production to reach a goal of 350,000 units in 2024, contributing to Ukraine’s ambitious target of over 1 million drones.
In response to a deadly strike by Russian forces on February 1, which resulted in the deaths of two French humanitarian workers in Beryslav, Kherson Oblast, local authorities have imposed restrictions on the movement of foreign volunteers, NGO workers, and embassy staff within certain areas of the region. Now, explicit permission is required from the Kherson Oblast Military Administration and military command for such individuals to enter locales that are regular targets of Russian shelling.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky engaged in a series of morale-boosting visits within central Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad oblasts. His itinerary began at a Dnipropetrovsk Oblast training center, where he observed air defense exercises and acknowledged the military’s efforts by bestowing state honors upon the soldiers. Zelensky’s commitment to education amidst the ongoing conflict was evident as he interacted with students and educators at a Dnipro school. Continuing to Kropyvnytskyi in Kirovohrad Oblast, Zelensky’s focus shifted to the healthcare front, as he conversed with wounded servicemen at a local medical facility and commended their bravery with awards. He recognized Kirovohrad Oblast’s significant role in supporting the nation, notably through hosting many internally displaced individuals.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky conveyed his discussions with Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on enhancing policies for war veterans. This dialogue hints at the broader administrative reforms Zelensky is pursuing, particularly following the resignation of Veterans Affairs Minister Yuliia Laputina. Zelensky emphasized the need for invigorated leadership across all sectors to secure victory in the ongoing conflict and to instill greater public confidence. Laputina, who offered her resignation to parliament, has been leading the ministry responsible for the welfare of war veterans since its inception after Russia’s initial aggression in 2014. The Ukrainian parliament, led by Chairman Ruslan Stefanchuk, is set to deliberate on her resignation soon. Zelensky’s comments suggest a significant reshuffle in Ukrainian leadership, aiming for a “reset” to address current challenges and to bolster the nation’s resolve against Russian military aggression.
Ukrainian media outlet Bihus.info has reported illegal surveillance activities by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) against its staff, culminating in a leaked video showing alleged drug use. The SBU’s Department for Protection of National Statehood, implicated in the operation, underwent a recent leadership change, with President Zelensky dismissing its head, Roman Semenchenko. Bihus.info, recognized for its investigative work, has opened its own inquiry into the surveillance and identified SBU officers involved in installing hidden cameras. The SBU is pursuing an internal investigation and maintains its stance on protecting national interests and journalist safety, despite allegations of SBU’s involvement in privacy violations and drug-related accusations against Bihus.info’s staff. The incident has drawn criticism from Ukraine’s journalism community and President Zelensky, emphasizing the unacceptability of pressuring journalists.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has identified a high-ranking official from the Supreme Court of Ukraine as a suspect for supporting Russia’s invasion. The unnamed official, leading one of the court’s structural divisions, allegedly expressed views favoring the handover of Ukrainian regions to Russia and showed support for Wagner mercenaries. During a search of his residence, law enforcement found incriminating evidence on electronic devices, nearly 300 small arms cartridges, literature supportive of the Kremlin, and surveillance equipment. Charged with crimes related to justifying and glorifying Russian aggression against Ukraine, the official faces up to eight years in prison. The investigation continues, with the SBU yet to confirm if the suspect has been placed in pre-trial detention.
Ukraine’s Allies
French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne has publicly decried the Russian attack in Beryslav on February 1 as an atrocity, which resulted in the death of two French nationals and the wounding of three others. Considering these events, Sejourne is taking diplomatic action, with plans to summon the Russian ambassador to address the violent incident and express France’s condemnation.
The Netherlands is set to enhance Ukraine’s aerial capabilities by committing an additional six F-16 aircraft, bringing the total Dutch contribution to 24 F-16s. This increase follows the cancellation of a prior sale to Draken International. The bolstered fleet is expected to further Ukraine’s defense efforts, with Ukrainian pilots likely receiving training at a dedicated F-16 training facility in Romania. This support is part of a broader international assistance strategy to provide Ukraine with advanced weaponry and training to improve its defense and offensive operations on the battlefield.
Poland has extended a new loan to support joint Ukrainian-Polish weapons production, although details on the projects and loan amount remain unspecified.
Ukraine’s military intelligence head, Kyrylo Budanov, is advocating for Canada to repurpose over 83,000 surplus CRV7 ground attack rockets for Ukrainian defense use, as these rockets are slated for demolition. The transfer would serve a dual purpose by aiding Ukraine in its conflict against Russian forces and saving Canada the expenses associated with the disposal of the munitions. These rockets would potentially be integrated into Ukraine’s arsenal for use in attack helicopters and ground-based launchers targeting Russian armor and artillery. The proposal has garnered support from Canada’s Conservative Party, which has publicly urged the government to redirect the rockets to Ukraine rather than destroy them. The Canadian government, which has already provided significant military aid to Ukraine, is reviewing the request but has expressed concerns about the stability of the rockets due to their age. Specialists have noted that while the solid fuel in CRV7s may degrade over time, they could remain stable and safe if properly stored. The discussion continues as Canada weighs the potential risks against the strategic benefits of such a contribution.
Farmers across 16 locations in Latvia are rallying for an immediate halt on imports of Russian and Belarusian food products, a stance supported by Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics for political and economic reasons. The coalition government is expected to introduce legislation to this effect in February. In addition to the import ban, farmers are calling for regulatory reductions, improved financing access, and lower VAT rates for local produce. These demands, formally presented to the government, could lead to a larger demonstration in Riga if unaddressed. The controversy is fueled by concerns that Russian grain imports indirectly finance military actions and may include stolen Ukrainian grain. Latvia’s readiness to proceed with the ban independent of the EU underscores the urgency felt by officials and agricultural stakeholders alike.
Portuguese officials, including Foreign Minister Joao Cravinho and Education Minister Joao Costa, have signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Ukraine to collaborate on the reconstruction of schools in the war-impacted Zhytomyr Oblast. This agreement outlines a framework for rebuilding educational institutions and requires further specific agreements to define joint actions and funding details. Alongside the memorandum, the Portuguese delegation has also proposed a project to rebuild a Zhytomyr school destroyed in March 2022. Further discussions between Portuguese and Ukrainian officials, including a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky, are scheduled to address the war’s developments, Ukraine’s EU accession path, and the integration of Ukrainian refugees in Portugal. Portugal, having supported security guarantees for Ukraine as part of the G7 and participating in an international coalition to train Ukrainian F-16 pilots, continues to show solidarity with Ukraine amidst the ongoing conflict.
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson has criticized the bipartisan Senate deal on Ukraine aid and border security, labeling it “worse than expected” and suggesting it may face significant opposition in the House. The contentious bill, which encompasses $118.2 billion including $60 billion for Ukrainian security assistance and substantial funds for Israel and U.S.-Mexico border concerns, is up for a vote in the Senate by February 7. Despite concessions won by Senate Republicans for stricter immigration measures, House Republicans, at Johnson’s lead, are advocating for more severe actions. Johnson, who is aligned with former President Donald Trump, warns that if the bill is presented to the House in its current form, it will not pass. He has also indicated that the House will vote on an independent aid package for Israel, purposely leaving out Ukraine, potentially complicating the Senate’s efforts to expedite the overall bill’s passage. Senator Mitt Romney has accused Trump of influencing Congress to reject any deal on border issues, aiming to use the controversy as a platform for his anticipated 2024 presidential campaign.
Life in Occupied Regions
Russian occupation authorities in Kherson Oblast are actively engaging in the indoctrination of Ukrainian children into Russian culture and nationalism. It was reported that 25 children from the occupied region of Kalanchak were sent to the Republic of Mordovia for a New Year holiday cultural program. Additionally, these authorities are collaborating with Pskov Oblast to implement youth programs aimed at training Ukrainian children as “young activists,” furthering efforts to integrate them into Russian societal norms and political ideologies.
In a heartening update amid the conflict, two Ukrainian teenage girls have been successfully returned to Ukraine-controlled areas from the Russian-occupied part of Kherson Oblast. The regional governor, Oleksandr Prokudin, confirmed their safe return along with their families on February 5. The rescue was conducted by Save Ukraine, an NGO committed to humanitarian efforts.
Russia News
The Kremlin is leveraging various unrelated topics to subtly push the idea of partitioning Ukraine, a move highlighted by Dmitry Medvedev’s comments on a European railway project. Medvedev’s remarks implied Western acceptance of Lviv as Ukraine’s new capital post-conflict, a suggestion disconnected from the project’s intent and unrelated to Ukraine’s territorial integrity. This narrative aligns with previous statements from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who characterized the invasion as a rightful historical claim, suggesting a partition that leaves Ukraine as a diminished state. Such rhetoric, aimed at international audiences, appears designed to undermine support for Ukraine and to sway public opinion towards accepting territorial concessions as a resolution to the conflict. Meanwhile, Russian ultranationalists, personified by figures like Alexander Khodakovsky, dismiss the idea of a peaceful resolution through negotiation, advocating for a decisive military victory to end the conflict, thereby aligning with the Kremlin’s maximalist stance of total Ukrainian and Western capitulation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin directed Alexander Bortnikov, the Director of the Federal Security Service (FSB), to evaluate the possibility of broadening the range of academic programs available to female students at the FSB Academy. Presently, the academy restricts female enrolment to its Foreign Language Department. While Putin did not detail the specific disciplines he envisions being made accessible to women, this move is seen as a strategic initiative to enhance FSB recruitment by diversifying the pool of potential recruits over the long term.
Denis Manturov, the Russian Minister of Industry and Trade, declared that Russia plans to invest 100 billion rubles (approximately $1.1 billion) in drone production over the next three years, up to 2027. This funding is earmarked for the manufacturing of a wide array of drones, encompassing “hundreds of thousands” of first-person view (FPV) drones and “tens of thousands” of heavy unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs).
The campaign of Boris Nadezhdin, the sole anti-war candidate for the March 2024 presidential election, faces potential exclusion due to claims of fraudulent signatures by the Central Election Commission (CEC). Despite submitting 200,000 signatures, a CEC working group flagged 15% as fraudulent, exceeding the allowable 5% limit, thus recommending against his candidacy. Nadezhdin plans to gather the needed 4,500 valid signatures and may appeal to the Supreme Court if denied registration. This development occurs amid his growing popularity, which some speculate could threaten President Vladimir Putin’s desired electoral outcome. The situation has led to increased scrutiny and alleged attempts to discredit Nadezhdin, including accusations of collecting signatures from deceased individuals and difficulties in campaign operations. This situation underscores the Kremlin’s tight control over political dissent and the electoral process, highlighting the challenges faced by opposition figures in Russia.
A Meduza investigation reveals the Russian government’s covert nationalization of private enterprises, employing three strategies despite President Putin’s denials of such actions. The schemes involve contesting 1990s privatizations as exceeding regional authority, labeling business owners as “foreign investors” to facilitate asset seizures under foreign investment laws, and confiscating assets under the guise of corruption or fraud—a tactic increasingly applied in 2023. These measures indicate a broader tactic to suppress dissent and control economic assets, subtly shifting private holdings back to state control while circumventing public declarations of nationalization.
Russian Narratives for Propaganda or What Tucker Carlson Will Be Saying Tomorrow
The Kremlin is intensifying its narrative against Eastern European countries by criticizing the removal of Soviet-era monuments, particularly focusing on recent developments in Bulgaria and Estonia. Russian Ambassador to Bulgaria, Elenora Mitrofanova, highlighted the demolition of a Soviet Red Army monument in Sofia as damaging to Russian-Bulgarian relations, framing it as disrespectful to the legacy of Bulgarian resistance fighters. This stance is part of a broader Russian strategy to oppose the dismantling of Soviet symbols in post-Soviet states and former Warsaw Pact countries, potentially laying the groundwork for justifying aggressive actions against these nations.
Simultaneously, Russian media is exploiting a report about a seized shipment of explosive materials in Georgia, alleging Ukrainian involvement in planned terrorist activities within Russia and the CIS. This narrative aims to depict Ukraine as a transnational security threat, suggesting that Ukrainian state actors engage in terrorism. Through these narratives, the Kremlin seeks to escalate rhetoric against Central and Eastern European states and portray Ukraine as a destabilizing entity in the region.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Militaryland.net (maps)