Summary of the day: President Putin used an interview to peddle false narratives on Russia’s stance in the Ukrainian conflict, denying Ukraine’s statehood and blaming the West for the war, while aiming to weaken NATO’s influence. Ukraine’s President Zelensky appointed a new military chief amid ongoing warfare, where Ukrainian forces achieved advances near Kreminna, countering Russian progress in Avdiivka and Donetsk City. Furthermore, Ukraine and Russia exchanged POWs, and Ukraine reported a successful cyberattack on Russian drone operations. Amidst this, Russia’s electoral authority barred an anti-war presidential candidate, suggesting election interference, and reports emerged of Russian forces potentially using Starlink services in occupied territories. Meanwhile, a Putin-Xi phone call hinted at China’s cautious stance towards an alliance with Russia.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Sloboda Front – Initiative Russia – Target: Recapture Kupyansk
Siversky Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia – Targets: Zherebets River, Siversk, & Chasiv Yar
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia – Targets: Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Novomykhailivka, & advance from occupied Marinka
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None – Targets: Staromaiorske, Urozhaine, & Robotyne
Dnipro Left Bank Front – Initiative None – Target: Krynky
The frontlines along the Kupyansk-Svatove sector remained largely unchanged despite ongoing positional battles, particularly near Synkivka northeast of Kupyansk and around Ivanivka, Krokhmalne, and Tabaivka northwest of Svatove. Russian attempts to advance near Synkivka were reported, but without visual confirmation. Ukrainian forces are facing concentrated efforts by Russian units aimed at capturing Synkivka for strategic positioning.
Both Ukrainian and Russian forces achieved confirmed advances, with Ukraine moving north of Bilohorivka and Russia advancing southwest of Dibrova. Claims of further advances by both sides near Bilohorivka, Terny, and Yampolivka have been made, though unverified, as the struggle for control in this area continues with significant positional engagements.
The Bakhmut area witnessed continued positional engagements without significant changes to the frontline. Fighting was reported northwest of Bakhmut near Bohdanivka, towards Ivanivske and Chasiv Yar, and southwest near Klishchiivka.
Russian forces achieved slight advancements near Avdiivka, amidst ongoing positional battles. Geolocated footage showed a minor advance in eastern Stepove, northwest of Avdiivka, though this likely occurred earlier. Claims of progress in northern Avdiivka, including capturing parts of a railway line and advancing near a quarry northeast of the city, have been made but lack visual confirmation. Positional fighting persists in various directions around Avdiivka, including near Novobakhmutivka, Berdychi, and towards Ocheretyne, as well as directly south, west, and southwest of the city. Russian forces are reportedly focusing on disrupting Ukrainian supply routes within Avdiivka. Additionally, there has been an increase in Russian glide bomb strikes on Ukrainian positions in the area, with the Avdiivka Military Administration reporting 800 airstrikes since the start of 2024, indicating a significant escalation in aerial bombardment.
Russian forces made progress south of Donetsk City on February 8, amid ongoing battles in the region. Geolocated footage from the same day showed advancements into eastern Novomykhailivka. While Russian claims of further progress in Heorhiivka remain unverified, positional engagements have been reported near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka to the west of Donetsk City, as well as Pobieda southwest of the city, and in Novomykhailivka itself. The area continues to witness significant military activity as the conflict persists.
In western Zaporizhia Oblast, the frontline remained stable despite ongoing positional battles. Fighting was reported near Verbove, east of Robotyne, Novoprokopivka, south of Robotyne, and in Robotyne itself. The conflict area saw the involvement of Russian forces, but no significant shifts in control were confirmed. The situation indicates a continuation of the military standoff in the region.
Positional conflicts persisted on the east bank of Kherson Oblast, notably around Krynky. While a Russian military blogger claimed some success in assaults within Krynky, independent verification of these advances remains absent. Ukrainian military spokesperson highlighted that Russian forces have seemingly ceased using armored vehicles in their operations in this sector, possibly due to specific command directives. The area continues to witness significant military engagement amid the ongoing conflict.
Human Cost Of The War
Russian forces launched a significant drone and missile attack on Ukraine, targeting both frontline and rear areas. The Ukrainian Air Force intercepted 11 out of 17 Shahed drones launched from occupied Crimea, with air defenses active over Mykolaiv, Odesa, Vinnytsia, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. Additionally, eight missiles, including North Korean KN-23 and S-300s, targeted Selydove in Donetsk Oblast, while a Russian Kh-59 cruise missile was shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The strikes caused damage to residential areas in Odesa and Mykolaiv, with drone debris also affecting an infrastructure facility in Vinnytsia. Furthermore, it was reported that on February 7, Russian forces used North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles in an attack on Kharkiv City, indicating a deepening reliance on external military support for operations against Ukraine.
Aftermath of drone attacks on Kharkiv
1 Ukrainian civilian was killed, and another injured from Russian attacks over the last 24 hours. Reports of casualties from the attack on Kharkiv have not yet been reported:
- Russian shelling in Avdiivka claimed the life of a 72-year-old woman. The attack also resulted in damage to two homes. Governor Filashkin urgently urged residents of Avdiivka to evacuate, emphasizing the ongoing danger posed by Russian attacks. Despite the risks, over 900 residents remain in the city, exposing themselves to grave peril daily.
- Russian forces launched an attack on the village of Romashkove near Kherson, resulting in injuries to a resident. IA 58-year-old man sustained blast injuries and a wound to his head.
Avdiivka
Vladislav Rykov, a highly skilled Ukrainian Air Force pilot, was tragically killed in action on Feb. 7. With an impressive record of 385 sorties, Rykov was esteemed as one of the finest pilots and commanders.
Ukraine News
In a significant shift within Ukraine’s military leadership, President Volodymyr Zelensky has appointed Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, previously the Ground Forces Commander, as the new Commander-in-Chief, replacing General Valerii Zaluzhnyi. Zelensky, who announced the appointment in a national address, praised Syrskyi’s defensive and offensive military expertise, notably in the Kyiv and Kharkiv operations. The changes, which were formalized through presidential decrees, are part of a large-scale reset aimed at adapting to the changing demands of the ongoing war and include consideration of other high-ranking officers for leadership roles. Zelensky emphasized the transformation as a “systemic renewal of the leadership” to avoid stagnation and to foster new strategies and management reforms. Although Zaluzhnyi has been offered a new role within the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ management team, his acceptance remains unconfirmed. This move reaffirms Ukraine’s dedication to evolving its military command to meet current and future challenges in the conflict.
Ukrainian and Russian military forces carried out a balanced prisoner of war exchange, where 100 Ukrainian POWs were swapped for an equal number of Russian captives.
American officials speaking anonymously to The New York Times suggested that the Russian Il-76 plane crash in the Belgorod region on Jan. 24, which resulted in fatalities, may have been caused by the American-made Patriot missile system. The plane was purportedly transporting Ukrainian prisoners, although Ukrainian officials have not confirmed this information. Russia has alleged that Ukraine shot down the plane while carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs), prompting Kyiv to call for an international investigation. However, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency has not verified the presence of prisoners nor commented on the crash’s cause. Ukrainian sources indicated that the plane may have been carrying S-300 missiles, typically used by Russia in attacks on Kharkiv Oblast. The Patriot air defense system is vital for safeguarding Ukrainian airspace against Russian missile threats. While American officials declined to publicly comment on the crash, sources suggest privately that Patriot missiles may have been involved. Russia’s lack of response to Ukraine’s request to return the bodies of the alleged POWs and its obstruction of the International Committee of the Red Cross investigation have raised further questions. Weak intelligence may have led Ukraine to target the plane, assuming it was transporting missiles due to its previous use for such purposes.
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) successfully executed a cyberattack on the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), disrupting the automated operation of an unspecified number of first-person view (FPV) drones. Announced on February 8, this cyber offensive forced Russian forces to revert to manual control of these Chinese-brand drones.
The first shipment of Ukrainian wheat as humanitarian aid this year, organized by the UN World Food Programme under the Grain From Ukraine program, set sail from Ukraine, according to Ukraine’s Infrastructure Ministry. The Sky Gate bulk carrier is transporting 25,000 metric tons of wheat to Nigeria via the temporary Black Sea corridor, which was established in August 2023 following Russia’s termination of the Black Sea grain deal. Since then, over 15 million metric tons of Ukrainian grain have been exported from ports near Odesa. The Grain From Ukraine program, launched in November 2022, has seen the participation of 34 countries and international organizations, shipping 170,000 tons of humanitarian wheat to countries like Ethiopia, Yemen, Somalia, Kenya, and Afghanistan in its first year. The second international summit for the program in November 2023 raised over $100 million to continue supporting countries facing food shortages. While the corridor initially facilitated the departure of vessels stranded at Ukrainian Black Sea ports since Russia’s invasion, it has since become a crucial route for exporting Ukrainian goods. However, the ongoing war poses risks to Black Sea shipping, including floating mines, as evidenced by a civilian cargo vessel hitting a Russian mine on Dec. 28, 2023, resulting in two sailors being injured.
Pro-Russian lawmaker Nestor Shufrych, already under suspicion of treason, now faces charges of financing Russia’s National Guard in Crimea. Accused of spreading pro-Kremlin narratives and engaging in anti-Ukrainian activities, Shufrych allegedly paid the National Guard to protect his property in Crimea, illegally annexed by Russia in 2014. The property, purchased from enterprises linked to pro-Russian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk’s wife, was guarded by the National Guard under a contract signed by Shufrych’s lawyer. Shufrych and his lawyer now face charges related to financing actions aimed at undermining Ukraine’s constitutional order.
According to some Russian and Ukrainian reports, Russian forces might be utilizing Elon Musk’s Starlink communication services in occupied Ukraine, allegedly acquiring access through transactions in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. These claims, however, remain unverified by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Starlink, operated by SpaceX, has categorically denied conducting business with the Russian government or military forces, stating it has not distributed, marketed, or sold its services or equipment in Russia. Furthermore, Starlink asserts it has no operations in Dubai and does not endorse any third-party entities to sell its services there.
Ukraine Mobilization and Technology Advances
David Arakhamia, head of President Zelensky’s party in the Ukrainian parliament, announced that a specialized committee will review various provisions of the revised mobilization bill before its second reading. The government seeks to modernize conscription laws to enhance mobilization efforts in 2024, with the parliament currently deliberating on a new draft following the withdrawal of a contentious initial version. While the updated bill received first reading approval on February 7, lawmakers express reservations about certain legislative aspects, including proposals to block bank accounts of military service evaders and limit military deferment for non-state-funded post-graduate students. Arakhamia emphasizes ongoing efforts to balance interests and address concerns, including preserving exemptions for individuals with disabilities. Despite initial constitutional concerns, Chief Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets supports advancing the draft law, suggesting any issues could be resolved before its second reading following discussions with Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.
Ukraine has initiated state-level agreements for the widespread production of the “ShaBlya” robotic turret, marking a significant advancement in Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
Ukraine’s Allies
The U.S. Senate has moved forward with a revised foreign aid package, separate from border policy reforms, which includes funding for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. This “Plan B” bill, worth $95 billion, allocates $60 billion for Ukraine, $14.1 billion for Israel, $9.2 billion for humanitarian assistance, and $4.8 billion to support Indo-Pacific regional partners. Earlier, a combined bill addressing both foreign aid and border reforms was blocked by Senate Republicans. The Senate’s decision to advance this standalone aid package, achieved through a 67-32 vote, sets the stage for further deliberation. However, final passage remains uncertain, with potential weekend sessions and divided opinions among Republicans, some of whom may demand border policy amendments. Senate Democrats have committed to keeping senators in Washington until the aid bill is resolved. This move follows months of negotiations between party leaders, previously hampered by disagreements over border policy reforms.
U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby assured continued American support for Ukraine regardless of changes in military leadership. President Zelensky’s dismissal of Chief Commander Zaluzhnyi and appointment of General Syrskyi as his replacement was met with affirmation from the U.S. Kirby emphasized civilian control over military decisions, stating that the U.S. will cooperate with whoever Zelensky chooses to lead the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
In a recent statement to Politico, U.K. Ambassador to NATO David Quarrey expressed skepticism about Kyiv’s chances of making significant progress in its bid to join NATO during the upcoming summit in Washington, DC, scheduled for July 9-11. Despite Ukraine’s aspirations, last year’s summit in Vilnius did not yield the hoped-for invitation or a clear timeline for accession, despite increased cooperation with NATO. Quarrey emphasized the U.K.’s support for Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, stating that it’s a matter of “when, not if” Ukraine joins the alliance. However, he noted that the current situation on the ground, coupled with challenges like stalled military aid from the U.S., presents obstacles to swift progress. Quarrey expressed hope for the prompt passage of a $60 billion aid package from the U.S., following the U.K.’s recent announcement of a military aid package worth 2.5 billion pounds ($3.15 billion).
Ukraine and Denmark are in talks for a bilateral security guarantee, following commitments from G7 nations. Denmark has allocated significant military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. They’ve pledged F-16 jets, with the first batch expected by spring 2024, pending Ukraine’s readiness.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and Bulgarian People’s Assembly Chairperson Rosen Zhelyazkov explored potential collaboration on producing military equipment and training Ukrainian forces during their meeting on February 7.
The new EU Russian sanctions package, expected to be in place by the second anniversary of the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, will likely target individuals and companies involved in Russian weapons production and key defense technologies. Details are still unclear, but reports suggest a focus on entities linked to weapons production, including shipping companies tied to North Korean ammunition transport. While the package aims to pass quickly with mostly non-controversial measures, some express disappointment over the absence of new import bans, anticipating the 14th round of sanctions shortly after.
The U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced sanctions on non-industrial diamonds from Russia, aligning with G7 commitments. These sanctions prohibit the export of such diamonds, including jewelry and unsorted ones, regardless of processing location. They will be implemented in phases, starting on March 1, with further expansion planned for September 1, 2024. The move follows similar actions by other G7 nations and the EU, targeting Russia’s significant diamond industry, a source of revenue for its war efforts.
The Finnish government has extended the closure of its border with Russia until April 14 due to concerns about continued migration and Russia’s behavior. The border was initially closed in November 2023 to prevent an influx of migrants entering Finland via Russia. The closure also prohibits applications for international protection at any border with Russia. Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen emphasized the need to prioritize national security amid Russia’s ongoing hybrid operations. Measures are being prepared to counter illegal infiltration from Russia.
Life in Occupied Regions
Russian officials are reportedly preparing to manipulate election outcomes and participation rates in the territories of Ukraine they occupy for the March 2024 presidential election. According to the Russian news outlet Kommersant on February 7, early voting will be available to all residents in these areas, including local inhabitants, Russian military members, and Russian visitors. The timing for early voting will be at the discretion of the local occupation election boards. Furthermore, to facilitate voting, these boards plan to offer at-home voting services, conducting door-to-door visits throughout the election period.
Senior Russian figures visited the site of a new facility named “Voin,” located in a children’s camp in Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast, which is intended for military sports training and patriotic education. According to the Ukrainian Resistance Center, this center will offer Ukrainian teens training in weaponry and military tactics, along with lectures on the conflict in Ukraine, framing it from a Russian perspective. Additionally, in occupied Luhansk, a new center has been established to train young Ukrainians, ages 14 to 22, to become “bloggers” within the Russian digital sphere, as announced by the head of the Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Military Administration. This move illustrates Russia’s efforts to cultivate a generation within occupied areas that aligns with its military and ideological objectives.
Russia News
The Russian Central Election Committee (CEC) has denied the registration of Boris Nadezhdin, the sole anti-war candidate in the upcoming March 2024 presidential election, likely due to his unexpected surge in popularity. The CEC cited a high proportion of invalid signatures in his application as the reason for this refusal. This move suggests a shift from the Kremlin’s possible initial strategy of using Nadezhdin’s candidacy to validate the election as a referendum on the war in Ukraine. Observers, like the ISW, speculate that Nadezhdin’s growing support may have posed a threat to this narrative, prompting the Kremlin to disqualify him using technicalities to uphold the illusion of legitimate elections. As of February 8, only four candidates have been approved to run, all of whom are considered “controlled opposition,” ensuring President Putin’s re-election by a significant, likely prearranged margin.
Russian Mobilization and Technology Advances
The Russian Ministry of Defense introduced a draft bill that seeks to unify the maximum age limits for contract military personnel during periods of partial mobilization, martial law, or wartime. This proposal sets the age ceiling at 70 for senior officers and 65 for other personnel, affecting those enlisted before July 24, 2023, aligning with a law signed by Putin that previously raised these age limits. This adjustment from the earlier retirement age of 51 for mobilized personnel appears to facilitate broader mobilization efforts and maintain a larger pool of experienced personnel within the military ranks, particularly benefiting command structures amidst ongoing operations in Ukraine.
Russia’s Allies
During a phone call, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping reviewed key geopolitical issues, including the conflicts in Ukraine and Taiwan, and the Middle East situation, while reiterating their commitment to enhancing bilateral trade and foreign policy collaboration. However, this conversation comes amidst China’s apparent reluctance to fully embrace the deepening Russo–Sino partnership Putin desires, especially as Russia strengthens ties with Iran and North Korea. Despite Russian media’s portrayal of a robust alliance, Chinese actions, such as state-owned banks cutting off ties with sanctioned Russian firms, suggest caution. Meanwhile, Russia has been vocal about its growing economic and military cooperation with Iran and North Korea, relying on these nations for military supplies like drones and ammunition, indicating a pivot in its international relationships in the face of Western sanctions and global diplomatic pressures.
Russian Narratives for Propaganda or What Tucker Carlson Will Be Saying Tomorrow
In an interview with Tucker Carlson on February 8, Russian President Vladimir Putin presented a narrative in stark contrast to his aggressive policies, claiming Russia seeks peace in Ukraine while simultaneously undermining its sovereignty. His stance is a calculated effort to weaken Western support for Ukraine by depicting Russia as a victim, wronged by the West’s refusal to negotiate. This approach is coupled with unfounded accusations against Ukraine and the West, including the fabrication of a U.S.-backed coup and NATO’s military ambitions in Ukraine, which he uses to justify calls for Ukraine’s “demilitarization” and “denazification.” Putin’s denial of Ukrainian nationhood, his revisionist history claiming Ukrainians are ethnically Russian, and his insistence on Ukraine’s “neutrality” contradict international law and previous Russian acknowledgments of Ukraine’s sovereignty. These narratives support his broader goal of dismantling NATO and reshaping global order to pave the way for a multipolar world dominated by Russia and China. Putin’s historical comparisons and demands of NATO aim to legitimize his imperial ambitions and reassert Russian influence over its perceived sphere, disregarding the established norms of state sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Russian officials are pointing fingers at Western countries for escalating tensions in both Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko said that the US’s involvement in the Asia-Pacific complicates Russia’s ability to discuss a peace treaty with Japan, accusing the US of bringing NATO into the region. Furthermore, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov mentioned that Russia’s relationships with Germany and the UK are in a state of crisis due to communication breakdowns, while also criticizing France for its support of Ukraine. These statements reflect Russia’s stance on the growing geopolitical rifts and its attribution of blame to Western actions.
Russian officials are criticizing Moldova’s move away from Moscow, arguing it’s against Moldovan interests. Ambassador Oleg Vasnetsov and Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksander Pankin stated that Moldova’s attempts to reduce its ties with the Russia-led Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are detrimental to the Moldovan populace. Vasnetsov further claimed that Moldova has no other option but Russian-led talks for peace with Transnistria. Additionally, a Kremlin-aligned military blogger criticized Moldovan policies that mandate Russian citizens to vote at the Russian embassy in Chisinau for the upcoming presidential election and prohibit polling stations in Transnistria, suggesting these actions will hinder the election process. These comments are part of broader Russian efforts to create political unrest in Moldova, possibly laying groundwork for future aggression.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Militaryland.net (maps)