Summary of the day: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russian forces secured “full control” over Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, with advances also reported near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Ukrainian forces shot down three Russian aircraft over Donetsk, demonstrating resilience even as potential delays in Western security assistance threaten to impact air defense capabilities. Additionally, the US Department of Justice allocated $500,000 of forfeited Russian funds to Estonia for Ukrainian energy infrastructure repairs, while Russian authorities detained hundreds in response to protests over Alexei Navalny’s death.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Delays in receiving Western security assistance pose a risk of further straining Ukrainian air defenses, potentially enabling Russian forces to extend their strategy of close air support, seen in Avdiivka, across Ukraine. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov emphasized the need for modern air defense systems to counteract Russian glide bombs effectively. Colonel Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, highlighted the necessity of targeting Russian Su-34 and Su-35 aircraft, which are responsible for launching these glide bombs from distances up to 70 kilometers away. This tactic allows Russian aircraft to strike from behind the frontline while minimizing their losses. With Ukraine facing a critical shortage of air defense missiles, anticipated to run out by March 2024 without Western replenishment, the capability to defend against such threats is increasingly compromised. This situation compels Ukraine to prioritize defense coverage along the frontline, while the possibility of recurring Russian air superiority threatens more aggressive Russian operational advances and large-scale bombings of Ukrainian cities.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces reportedly made advancements west of Kreminna, with continued positional battles along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, despite the lack of visual confirmation for some claimed advances. The fighting was concentrated northeast of Kupyansk, as well as west and south of Kreminna, involving several localities. Additionally, Russian forces were reported to be reinforcing their positions with new personnel and equipment, and they launched up to 12 glide bombs on Kupyansk.
Russian forces achieved slight advancements in the vicinity of Bakhmut, with geolocated footage showing minor progress southeast of Bohdanivka. Claims by Russian milbloggers of advancements towards Ivanivske and near Vyimka lack independent confirmation. Positional battles persisted near key locations around Bakhmut, including Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, and areas southwest and south of the city.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed that Russian forces have gained “full control” over Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, with Russian troops finalizing the capture and clearance of the area on February 17. He reported the achievement to President Vladimir Putin, highlighting the involvement of various Russian military units under the leadership of Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev. Putin praised multiple brigades and regiments for their role in the operation. Geolocated footage showed Russian advances in northern, central, and northeastern Avdiivka, including key industrial and administrative locations. Despite claims of capturing most of Avdiivka, Russian military bloggers noted that Ukrainian forces might still hold positions in the western outskirts and specific parts of the city.
Ukrainian officials reported that their forces inflicted significant casualties on Russian troops during the defense and withdrawal from Avdiivka, claiming 20,018 personnel, 199 tanks, and 481 armored vehicles lost in the Tavriisk direction by February 15, with a substantial number of these losses occurring near Avdiivka. A soldier mentioned that Russian forces experienced heavy losses, including hundreds of personnel on February 17 alone. Despite some Ukrainian forces being captured, Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi noted the withdrawal was executed as planned, preventing Russian forces from fully encircling Ukrainian troops.
Russian sources portrayed the Ukrainian withdrawal from Avdiivka as disorganized and claimed to have encircled large Ukrainian groups, yet the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) found no evidence to support these claims. Russian milbloggers used a few videos of captured Ukrainian POWs to assert they surrounded large Ukrainian forces, and they claimed Ukrainian forces suffered significant losses in a disorderly retreat. Despite these assertions, the footage circulated by Russian milbloggers does not corroborate their claims about the scale of Ukrainian casualties or the capture of POWs. The limited footage shown by milbloggers of Ukrainian personnel withdrawing under fire or moving openly does not convincingly demonstrate large-scale chaotic withdrawals. The absence of extensive footage that typically accompanies Russian claims of capturing settlements and inflicting heavy losses raises questions about the veracity of their claims regarding Avdiivka. This departure from the usual practice of showcasing battlefield successes, especially in a significant area like Avdiivka, is notably unusual for the Russian information space.
During the final days of their offensive to capture Avdiivka, Russian forces achieved temporary, localized air superiority, marking a significant development as they provided close air support to ground troops for the first time in Ukraine. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces launched a substantial number of glide bombs at Avdiivka, including 60 KAB glide bombs in one day and up to 500 in recent days, along with conducting a record 73 airstrikes on February 14 in the Tavriisk direction. Additionally, a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that 250 FAB glide bombs were used in a specific area of Avdiivka within 48 hours. These aerial bombardments were credited by Russian sources as pivotal in overcoming Ukrainian defenses, with some milbloggers asserting Russian air superiority in the region. The significant escalation in the use of glide bombs to support infantry advances and the inability of Ukrainian forces to deny airspace access to Russian forces around Avdiivka suggest a strategic shift in Russian military operations. This development indicates a new phase in the conflict, with Russian aviation playing a more prominent role in frontline operations.
Positional fighting persisted west of Donetsk City around Heorhiivka, and to the southwest near Pobieda and Novomykhailivka.
The Ukrainian General Staff noted minor positional clashes near Prechystivka and Staromayorske, located in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area, southeast and south of Velyka Novosilka respectively. Additionally, Russian forces carried out glide bomb attacks on Ukrainian positions in Staromayorske.
Russian forces have made a confirmed advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast, with geolocated footage from February 17 showing the recapture of a position south of Robotyne. Despite claims from several Russian milbloggers about a renewed offensive towards Robotyne, with assertions of reaching the western outskirts, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has yet to find visual proof of these advances or of offensive preparations in the area. The Ukrainian General Staff noted Russian attempts at attacks near Robotyne and neighboring areas were unsuccessful.
Ukrainian forces launched a missile attack targeting Russian rear positions in the occupied Zaporizhia Oblast. Reports from both Russian and Ukrainian sources described explosions in Melitopol and indicated that Russian air defenses intercepted objects near Tokmak.
Positional clashes persisted in the east bank of Kherson Oblast, yet no alterations to the frontline’s position were confirmed in this region.
Human Cost Of War
5 Ukrainians were killed and at least another 15 were injured in Russian attacks on civilian targets over the last 24 hours:
- A Russian strike damaged an infrastructure facility in Zaporizhia, leaving about 4,000 residents without heating. The assault, part of Russia’s broader campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, resulted in heating disruptions across 39 apartment buildings, aligning with previous attacks that caused widespread service outages. Despite the audible explosion around noon and the consequent utility interruptions, no casualties were reported.
- Russian missile strikes on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in Donetsk Oblast resulted in at least two fatalities and several individuals trapped under debris. In Kramatorsk, three missiles struck both industrial and residential zones, destroying two houses and damaging 23 others, with ongoing rescue efforts to free those trapped. A separate missile hit a school in Sloviansk, also leaving one person beneath the rubble as first responders continue their operations.
- Russia’s aerial bombardment of Kupyansk in Kharkiv Oblast claimed the life of a 47-year-old woman and injured at least five other individuals. The city was targeted in residential areas, with bombs damaging a two-story apartment building and trapping several under another destroyed house. The attack, part of a series of strikes including an early morning assault that wounded two elderly residents, involved at least 12 bombs, according to the local police chief.
- Russian forces bombarded seven communities in Sumy Oblast, resulting in one fatality and one injury, as well as damage to residential and farm buildings. The community of Khotin was notably affected, with the victim’s death and injury occurring there. Over the course of the day, a total of 53 attacks were recorded across the region, causing 253 explosions.
- Russian shelling in Kherson resulted in the death of a 49-year-old man and injuries to two other individuals. Among the wounded was a 49-year-old woman with explosive and leg injuries, and a 36-year-old man who is now in stable condition in the hospital.
Aftermath of Russian attack on home in Kramatorsk
Aftermath of Russian attack on home in Kupyansk
Aftermath of Russian attack on homes in Kherson
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported that there were 1050 Russian casualties inflicted over the last 24 hours.
Ukraine News
Ukrainian forces successfully downed three Russian aircraft—two Su-34s and one Su-35—over Donetsk Oblast, likely utilizing their limited air defense resources during the withdrawal from Avdiivka. While Ukrainian officials confirmed these shootdowns occurred during glide bomb strike missions, Russian sources offered conflicting accounts, ranging from denial of the incidents to suggestions of friendly fire being responsible for the Su-35’s loss. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk supported the claims with satellite data indicating the crash sites, showcasing Ukraine’s capability to target high-value aircraft with available modern air defenses.
Ukraine’s Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak affirmed the importance of press freedom in democratic societies and as a value Ukraine is defending, amidst allegations of the security service surveilling journalists. The media in Ukraine has reported systematic pressure, including discredit campaigns and intimidation, prompting calls from media organizations for accountability. Recent incidents include a threatening visit to journalist Yurii Nikolov and surveillance of the Bihus.Info team, with the latter accusing Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) of illegal monitoring, claims which Yermak did not directly address regarding future assurances.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine and its European allies are intensifying efforts to enhance their defense industrial bases and incorporate new military technologies. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen mentioned the EU’s plans to integrate Ukrainian defense production with European companies and to establish an innovation office in Kyiv, with an upcoming announcement on boosting Europe’s defense industry through increased investments and leveraging Ukrainian military innovations. Additionally, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Ivan Havrylyuk highlighted Ukraine’s advancements in producing modern anti-tank guided missiles, drones, thermobaric ammunition, and stealth-enhancing air defense systems.
Rheinmetall, a German arms manufacturer, has signed a memorandum of intent to produce artillery shells in Ukraine, partnering with an undisclosed Ukrainian company, holding a majority share of 51% in the joint venture. This agreement, crucial for boosting Ukraine’s domestic production of vital NATO-standard 155 mm ammunition, was announced amidst ongoing challenges in securing external military aid. The partnership aims to produce a “six-digit number” of these rounds annually, marking a strategic shift towards localizing defense manufacturing in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Allies
President Joe Biden attributed the Ukrainian forces’ withdrawal from Avdiivka to congressional delays in U.S. aid, emphasizing the impact on ammunition supplies and leading to Russia’s significant territorial gain. In a call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Biden reiterated U.S. support, highlighting the critical situation caused by stalled U.S. military assistance amid ongoing Republican opposition in Congress. The loss of Avdiivka, exacerbated by an artillery shortage as warned by U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby, underscores the urgent need for renewed U.S. aid to Ukraine, especially as Russian forces continue their assaults.
The US Department of Justice revealed that $500,000 of seized Russian funds was sent to Estonia to aid in repairing Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, derived from dismantling a scheme aimed at smuggling US-manufactured high-precision machine tools into Russia. This financial action reflects the collaborative efforts of the US and Estonia to thwart Russia’s attempts to acquire crucial Western technology.
At the Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky engaged with both a U.S. Senate delegation and Vice President Kamala Harris to address Ukraine’s urgent defense needs and the necessity for continued U.S. support amid the ongoing conflict. Zelensky stressed the urgent requirement for military aid, including artillery and air defense systems, in light of the U.S. Senate’s passage of a foreign aid bill that is now facing opposition in the House. Despite the recent withdrawal from Avdiivka and the precarious state of U.S. political backing, Harris reaffirmed America’s unwavering support for Ukraine’s fight against Russian aggression and the commitment to hold Russia responsible for its actions.
Italy’s Foreign Affairs Minister Antonio Tajani, alongside Ukrainian and European officials, signed an agreement to support Ukraine’s energy sector with a 100 million euro loan to Ukrhydroenergo, as part of a larger 200 million euro program backed by the EBRD. This financial support aims to aid Ukraine’s hydroelectric power infrastructure, which has faced significant challenges due to Russian attacks, including the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant. Tajani affirmed Italy’s commitment to Ukraine, noting the country’s G7 presidency priorities and plans to host a Ukraine Recovery Conference in 2025.
The U.K. Home Office announced that Ukrainians who fled the country due to the Russian invasion can extend their visas by an additional 18 months, providing reassurance to over 200,000 Ukrainians in the U.K. with the first visas expiring in March 2025. The extension is part of the U.K.’s continued support amidst reports of housing insecurity among Ukrainian refugees, who benefited from initiatives like “Homes for Ukraine,” though nearly 5,000 participants faced homelessness risks by October 2023. This decision, lauded by Ukrainian embassy officials, underscores the U.K.’s commitment to supporting Ukrainian refugees, with the visa extension application process starting in early 2025.
The Moldovan Border Police found fragments of a Shahed-type drone close to the border with Ukraine, near the village of Etulia, leading to restricted access to the discovery site. This incident follows a recent find of a warhead near a downed Russian Shahed drone in Moldova, amid suspicions of it being targeted by Ukrainian defenses during an assault on Odesa Oblast. Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean acknowledged that the country’s radar systems, provided by France, are unable to detect such drones, echoing concerns that had previously prompted Romania to bolster its border security.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Russian occupation authorities are intensifying their efforts to indoctrinate and militarize the youth in occupied Ukrainian territories. The head of occupied Zaporizhia Oblast, Yevgeny Balitsky, announced the establishment of a “youth chamber” in Enerhodar with Rosatom’s support, aiming to integrate Ukrainian youth into Russian-controlled political processes and groom them for future roles in occupation administrations. Additionally, military camps and school programs in occupied areas are being used to teach military skills and propagate pro-Russian ideologies, with specific initiatives like a cadet corps in Luhansk for daughters of fallen servicemembers, preparing them for potential military service.
Russia News
Kira Yarmysh, spokesperson for Alexei Navalny, announced that the Russian opposition leader was “murdered” by President Putin, following initial reports of his death by the Russian prison on February 16. Navalny’s death was officially recorded on February 16 at 2:17 p.m. local time, and his body, now in Salekhard and under investigation by Russia’s Investigative Committee, has prompted demands from his team for its return to his family. This announcement was accompanied by a video accusing Putin of the murder, leading to global condemnation and attributions of responsibility to Putin for Navalny’s death.
Following Alexei Navalny’s death, Russian authorities detained several hundred protesters over two days, with opposition sources reporting at least 350 arrests across more than 30 cities as people paid tribute to Navalny. On February 17 alone, an estimated 230 individuals were detained. Additionally, footage emerged of efforts to remove flowers and memorials dedicated to Navalny, indicating a shift from initial tolerance to a crackdown on larger demonstrations.
Facing boycotts and shareholder pressure, U.S. food giant Mondelez, known for brands like Oreo and Cadbury, is reorganizing its operations in Russia, despite being labeled as an “international sponsor of war” by Ukraine in May 2023 for continuing its business activities there. Mondelez has transitioned its Russian operations to function as an independent entity, producing and distributing products locally without European imports or exports, amid public and shareholder opposition. Despite not falling under international sanctions, Mondelez justifies its presence in Russia by citing the provision of essential food products to civilians, while acknowledging potential stakeholder scrutiny regarding its operations amidst the conflict.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
A Russian milblogger claimed that the “Hermes” missile system is currently undergoing tests in Ukraine and Russian training grounds, following Russian media’s anticipation of its deployment to the Ukrainian front reported on February 7. The “Hermes” is a versatile guided missile system capable of ground or air launches, including roles as an anti-ship missile or for coastal defense.
A significant blaze engulfed an industrial facility in Izhevsk, Russia, which Russian media reports have repurposed from a shopping mall into a drone factory, with the fire affecting over 3,500 square meters before being extinguished without casualties. While official statements claimed the site produced detergents and disinfectants, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty sources indicated that the location was being used by Izhevsk Unmanned Systems to assemble drones. This incident adds to a series of fires and explosions at Russian military-industrial sites since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, with some attributed to Ukrainian attacks or sabotage.
Russian Narratives for Propaganda
A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger criticized Moldovan laws that ease travel to Romania and establish Romanian as Moldova’s official language, arguing they undermine national interests and threaten Transnistria and Gagauzia’s rights and cultures. This critique aligns with increased Kremlin rhetoric aimed at deterring Moldova’s EU integration efforts and laying groundwork for potential Russian actions against Moldova.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org.
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com.