Summary of the day: Ukrainian officials express concern over potential Russian territorial gains by summer 2024 due to delays in Western security aid. In an address to the nation, Russian President Vladimir Putin aimed to assure the Russian public of military successes in Ukraine without sacrificing social and economic welfare, using rhetoric on negotiations and nuclear capabilities to capture Western attention. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces downed three Russian Su-34 fighter aircraft in eastern Ukraine, highlighting ongoing military engagements. Amid these developments, Putin did not address requests from Transnistria, indicating possible future actions against Moldova.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Ukrainian officials warn that without quicker Western military aid, Russia could make significant territorial gains by summer 2024. Internal assessments highlight the urgent need for more artillery ammunition to counter Russian advances. President Zelensky anticipates a new Russian offensive by late May or summer 2024, focusing on areas like Avdiivka. Russian tactics may evolve based on their success in overcoming Ukrainian defenses, particularly in strategic areas and along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. The level of Western support remains a critical factor in Ukraine’s ability to thwart Russian offensives.
Furthermore, Ukrainian intelligence reports suggest President Putin still aims to capture key Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv and Odesa, maintaining his initial goals. Recent statements by Putin and Russian officials, falsely claiming cities like Odesa as “Russian,” signal a continuation of expansionist rhetoric without setting boundaries for conquest, potentially indicating plans for further territorial ambitions in Ukraine.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
The frontlines along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line remained stable despite ongoing positional battles in areas around Kupyansk and Kreminna. Ukrainian forces observed Russian troops adapting to the terrain by using light mobile vehicles for personnel transport, aiming to evade Ukrainian drone strikes. The Russian military is intensively using artillery and reserves, especially around Terny, and supporting their assaults with aviation and artillery. Additionally, they are executing 10 to 15 glide bomb strikes daily in the Kupyansk and Lyman areas. Russian forces continue its operations near Bilohorivka, indicating sustained military activity in the region.
Russian forces made advances west of Bakhmut, amidst ongoing positional battles in the region. Captain Ilya Yevlash reported active combat in both Bohdanivka and Ivanivske, with Russian claims of significant control over Ivanivske lacking independent verification. Misinformation about complete control of Ivanivske was corrected among Russian milbloggers. The conflict also persists in areas around Bakhmut, including Berestove, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Kurdyumivka, Pivdenne, and Niu York.
Russian forces made advances west of Avdiivka, with unverified claims of capturing several settlements including Berdychi and Tonenke, and experiencing heavy fighting in Orlivka. Ukrainian forces managed to regain control in Orlivka after a brief Russian foothold. Geolocated footage suggests Russian movements south and southwest of Stepove, as well as near Lastochkyne. Despite Russian bloggers’ claims, Ukrainian officials refute the capture of Berdychi, and report continued battles near Novobakhmutivka and Pervomaiske. Ukrainian spokesperson Lykhovyi notes that Russian tactics involve wave attacks with limited armored support, indicating a cautious approach in utilizing heavy vehicles.
Russian forces made advances west of Donetsk City, with ongoing battles reported west and southwest of the city. Claims of Russian progress in Krasnohorivka were countered by Ukrainian forces, who stated they repelled Russian troops from the area shortly after their entry. The fighting persisted near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Pobieda
There were ongoing positional battles in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area, with no shifts in the frontline reported. The conflicts were concentrated southwest of Velyka Novosilka near Pryyutne and south near Urozhaine.
In western Zaporizhia Oblast, positional battles persisted with Russian claims of capturing several Ukrainian positions near Robotyne. Fighting was reported near Robotyne and northwest of Verbove.
Ukrainian forces kept their limited foothold in east Kherson Oblast, with ongoing clashes reported near Krynky and around the Antonivsky roadway bridge. Russian forces engaged in attacks near Krynky. An attempt by Ukrainian forces to land on the Tendrivska Spit was repelled by Russian forces, as acknowledged by both Ukrainian and Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Human Costs Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine caused seven injuries:
- Russian military actions resulted in 27 attacks across 10 border communities in Sumy Oblast, Ukraine, causing injuries to one civilian and triggering over 157 explosions. Vorozhba witnessed a civilian injury and fires at local business warehouses due to the shelling. The assaults involved mortar, artillery, drone strikes, and unguided bombs, with Bilopillia facing at least 13 mine drops. Krasnopillia, near the Russian border, suffered nearly 40 explosions, marking it as one of the most heavily impacted locations.
- In Beryslav, Kherson Oblast, a Russian drone attack injured two individuals, a 91-year-old woman and a 58-year-old man, after explosives were dropped on a house. Both victims were hospitalized and are in stable condition
- Russian forces conducted an airstrike on Shcherbynivka, a village in Donetsk Oblast, resulting in three injuries and damage to multiple residences. A bomb dropped at approximately 4:50 p.m. local time led to the complete destruction of one house and injuries to a 63-year-old woman and two men, ages 65 and 76, from the surrounding area. Additionally, the attack caused damage to at least 10 nearby houses and outbuildings.
- The Nikopol district in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast was subject to multiple attacks by Russian forces, resulting in injuries to a 72-year-old man. The attacks, involving artillery and drones, targeted Nikopol city and the communities of Marhanets and Chervonohryhorivka, causing damage to 17 homes, 10 outbuildings, power lines, a gas pipeline, and vehicles.
A house damaged by a Russian airstrike on the village of Shcherbynivka
A House damaged by a Russian strike on the Nikopol district
Ukraine News
Ukrainian forces successfully shot down three Russian Su-34 fighter jets in eastern Ukraine on February 28 and 29, targeting them as they conducted bomb strikes in the Mariupol and Avdiivka areas. This brings the total to 13 Russian aircraft downed by Ukraine since February 17, including two advanced A-50 radar planes this year. The loss of these aircraft, from Russia’s estimated fleet of 300 Sukhoi fighters, along with potentially skilled pilots, marks a significant impact on Russian military capabilities.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces conducted a successful rocket strike on Russian forces in occupied Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast, resulting in 19 Russian military fatalities and 12 injuries, including high-ranking officers. The operation was executed with a multiple rocket launcher and was confirmed by Ukraine’s military intelligence. The attack reportedly coincided with a military award ceremony, as claimed by a pro-Russian Ukrainian politician.
Russia has offered to return the bodies from a plane crash on January 24, involving an Il-76 aircraft that Russia claims was shot down by Ukraine in Belgorod Oblast, carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners. This assertion lacks corroborative evidence, and Ukraine denies any prisoners were on board. Russia’s human rights official, Tatyana Moskalkova, confirmed readiness for the transfer under existing protocols. Ukraine’s Oleksii Danilov countered, stating no Ukrainian POWs were on the downed plane. Amidst calls by President Zelensky for an international probe, American officials speculated that a U.S.-made Patriot missile might have caused the crash, possibly involving Ukrainian prisoners.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has made key changes in the military command, appointing Brigadier General Volodymyr Karpenko as the new commander of Ukraine’s Logistics Forces, succeeding Major General Oleh Huliak. The Logistics Forces are crucial for the storage, maintenance, and transport of military supplies. Karpenko previously managed logistics within the Ground Forces Command.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
In Ternopil Oblast, the Special Prosecutor’s Office is investigating the death of a 49-year-old man at a military enlistment center, who was found with bruises and had a history of epilepsy. He arrived at the center on February 25 for document verification and a medical exam, which he failed due to alcohol intoxication. His condition deteriorated on February 27, leading to fatal convulsions and a craniocerebral injury. This incident adds to ongoing concerns about misconduct at enlistment offices, highlighted by previous charges against enlistment office staff in Ternopil for torture and illegal imprisonment. A nationwide inspection initiated after financial irregularities were discovered at the Odesa Oblast enlistment office has revealed 260 suspected violations, underscoring systemic issues within military recruitment processes. The investigation into the man’s death continues.
Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister announced that since the start of 2024, 46 new weapons and equipment from Ukrainian producers have been deployed with their forces. These include various drones, electronic warfare systems, and small arms, reflecting ongoing efforts to enhance Ukraine’s military capabilities with domestically manufactured arms.
Russian sources highlighted footage showing Ukrainian forces employing new first-person view (FPV) drones to attack Russian infantry in Ukraine. The drones are seen detonating above targets, dispersing shrapnel across a broad area.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
Russian occupation authorities are intensifying control over religious communities in occupied areas of Ukraine, mandating that local Muslim groups in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts re-register under the Crimean and Sevastopol Muslim Spiritual Administration as per Russian law.
Ukraine’s Allies
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson stated the House will consider a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine after resolving U.S. government funding issues. Following the House’s move to prevent a government shutdown, attention turns to a stalled $95 billion aid bill for Ukraine and allies, awaiting House action after Senate approval. Delays in U.S. aid affect Ukraine’s defense, notably in losing key positions like Avdiivka. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer highlighted the urgency of support, warning of broader implications for U.S. global standing and potential future conflicts. U.S. military officials warned of resource shortages for European and African operations, including NATO support and Ukraine aid, by summer without action.
The European Parliament passed a resolution, urging EU nations to provide extensive military aid to Ukraine, including advanced weapons like long-range missiles, to help Kyiv win the war against Russia. Highlighting Ukraine’s worsening ammunition shortage, the resolution advocates for no limits on military support and suggests EU countries allocate at least 0.25% of their GDP annually to Ukrainian military aid. The resolution, which passed with a majority vote, also calls for the U.S. to approve $60 billion in aid for Ukraine, proposes a legal framework for transferring frozen Russian assets to Ukraine for reconstruction, and recommends expanding sanctions against Russia and Belarus.
France will supply Ukraine with 100 drones this summer, ordered from the French company Delair, as part of a commitment to support Ukraine’s defense against Russia, announced French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu. In total, France plans to purchase 2,000 remotely operated munitions for both its military needs and Ukraine’s. Drones are considered crucial in the ongoing conflict, with Ukrainian President Zelensky emphasizing drone production as a top priority for 2024. The use of drones and minefields has significantly impacted the ability of both sides to launch offensive operations, underlining the role of electronic warfare in combating enemy drones. This announcement followed a summit in Paris, led by President Macron, which gathered European leaders to discuss support for Ukraine.
Finnish Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen confirmed that Finland places no restrictions on the military aid it provides to Ukraine, implying that Ukrainian forces are free to use Finnish weapons to target military sites in Russia if deemed necessary. Finnish officials, including parliament member Jukka Kopra, advocate for Ukraine’s right to self-defense under international law, including cross-border military actions. Hakkanen is also encouraging allies, specifically Germany, to supply Ukraine with additional long-range weaponry, like the Taurus missiles, to aid in Ukraine’s defense efforts. Finland is actively involved in defense coalitions supporting Ukraine, including in artillery, and demining operations.
France has decided to support Ukraine by supplying air bombs suited for the Ukrainian military’s existing Soviet-origin aircraft, rather than providing Mirage fighter jets. French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu emphasized the need for practical and effective aid, announcing that France will deliver 50 precision-guided A2SM missiles monthly to Ukraine until year’s end. The choice reflects France’s strategic consideration of the operational challenges in sending Mirage jets. Despite this, President Zelensky indicated ongoing discussions with France about fighter jets, as France remains open to future military support options without taboos. Critics suggest that the hesitancy of Western allies to supply advanced jets and missiles may extend the conflict and increase casualties.
Denmark is dedicating an additional 1.4 million USD to foster Danish-Ukrainian municipal collaborations aimed at rebuilding Ukraine, as announced by the Danish Foreign Ministry. This follows a 10-year security cooperation pact with Ukraine, underscoring Denmark’s commitment to supporting Ukraine against Russia’s invasion. The funds will facilitate partnerships between Denmark’s Aarhus and Copenhagen and Ukraine’s Lviv, Kyiv, and Mykolaiv, focusing on urban development, energy efficiency, and support for veterans and trauma victims. Denmark, emphasizing the reconstruction of Mykolaiv and its region, has allocated over 100 million USD to this effort for 2023, highlighting its significant investment in Ukraine’s recovery.
Poland is considering a ban on food imports from Russia, taking cues from Latvia’s recent decision to prohibit grain and other foodstuffs from Russia and Belarus starting March. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk highlighted the move’s potential to cut financial support to the Russian economy and its military.
The European Parliament has called for Russian President Vladimir Putin to be held accountable for the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, stating Russia and Putin have both criminal and political responsibility. Navalny died on February 16 in a penal colony, with suspicions around whether his death was due to harsh conditions or deliberate action. The European Parliament demands an independent probe into Navalny’s death, emphasizing it as a sign of Russia’s escalating repression. The resolution describes Russia’s political environment as authoritarian and corrupt, distinguishing the Russian populace from the Kremlin’s regime. It advocates for continued support for Ukraine as a counter to Kremlin aggression.
British MP Tobias Ellwood criticized German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for publicly discussing British and French missile guidance support to Ukraine, labeling it a misuse of intelligence. Scholz’s remarks came as he reiterated Germany’s stance against providing Ukraine with Taurus missiles, due to concerns of escalating German involvement in the conflict. The Taurus missile, with a range of 500 kilometers, has been a key point of contention, with Ukraine seeking acquisition since May 2023. Scholz’s comments were refuted by German MP Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann and criticized by MP Norbert Rottgen for potentially aiding Russian propaganda. A UK government spokesperson clarified that while a small number of British personnel are in Ukraine for support, there are no intentions for a significant deployment.
Russia News
Russian President Vladimir Putin aimed to reassure the Russian public of military successes in Ukraine while promising not to neglect the country’s social and economic well-being. He claimed significant enhancements in Russia’s combat capabilities and territorial gains in Ukraine, a marked confidence shift from previous statements. Despite increased defense spending, Putin focused on domestic economic policies and social programs, trying to alleviate concerns about the war’s impact on ordinary Russians. He warned against being drawn into an arms race like the Soviet Union, asserting efforts to balance defense spending with social and economic development. The speech, part of his reelection campaign for March 2024, maintained his longstanding justifications for the war in Ukraine without new insights into his strategic framing.
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned of “tragic consequences” and the potential for nuclear conflict if NATO troops are deployed to Ukraine, during his State of the Nation address on February 29. Despite French President Emmanuel Macron not ruling out Western troop deployment, NATO has no current plans to send forces, as reiterated by Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and other European NATO leaders. Russia’s nuclear threats have remained unexecuted amid its continued aggression in Ukraine. Putin emphasized the full readiness of Russia’s strategic nuclear forces, claiming efforts to end the war and counter what he calls “Nazism” in Ukraine. He dismissed concerns over Russia attacking NATO members as unfounded and highlighted military strengthening in response to Finland’s NATO accession. Russia restructured its western military districts to better confront NATO’s expansion.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan criticized the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), claiming it poses a threat to Armenia’s security. He highlighted the CSTO’s failure to address Armenia’s security needs, particularly in 2021 and 2022, leading Armenia to significantly reduce its participation in the organization. Despite not having a permanent CSTO representative and abstaining from CSTO events for a year, Russia has refused to acknowledge Armenia’s reduced engagement, with the Russian Foreign Ministry expressing non-acceptance of Armenia’s stance. Pashinyan’s comments underscore the growing tensions between Armenia and the CSTO over unmet security obligations.
The Kremlin has created high-level roles in all federal bodies to boost patriotism and historical awareness, aiming to enhance ideological influence over government employees. This initiative, revealed by a leaked document, was formalized by a Putin decree in February 2023, requiring presidential approval for each appointment. These positions are tasked with fostering patriotism, civic identity, and support for Russia’s policies, both domestically and internationally. They will also educate federal employees on military, political, and historical topics, including the history of Russian statehood and international policy. This move is seen as a response to perceived ideological threats from foreign media and is part of a broader effort to tighten control over Russia’s informational and educational sectors, intensifying following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
The Netherlands has spent over 166 million euros on costs associated with the MH17 tragedy, attributing responsibility to Russia. The Malaysia Airlines flight was shot down by Russian proxy forces in Donetsk Oblast on July 17, 2014, killing all 298 onboard. Expenses included crisis management, victim repatriation and identification, investigations, and the criminal trial, where three individuals were found guilty in 2022. Additional funds were allocated for commemorations and support for survivors. These figures, covering up to the end of 2022, are part of the Netherlands’ efforts, alongside Australia, to seek compensation from Russia through the International Civil Aviation Organization, with future costs anticipated.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Rostec, a Russian state defense company, announced plans to manufacture additional A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft, citing increased demand from the Russian military. This comes after Ukrainian forces successfully downed two A-50s in 2024, leaving Russia with only six such aircraft, according to Ukrainian reports. However, production may face delays due to the unavailability of essential component parts for the A-50, indicating challenges in quickly replenishing Russia’s military assets.
Russia’s Allies
Putin remained silent on the February 28 request from Transnistria’s Congress of Deputies for actions against Moldova, leaving open a range of strategic options for the Kremlin. This request provides justifications for potential escalations by Russia against Moldova, whether soon or later, with strategies including but not limited to intensifying hybrid operations to destabilize Moldova or even formally annexing Transnistria to justify long-term military action. Putin’s non-response during his address does not eliminate any of these potential courses of action, allowing Russia flexibility in its approach towards Moldova.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda or What Tucker Carlson and the JBS Will Say Tomorrow
In his Federal Assembly speech, Putin reiterated his call for dialogue with the U.S. on strategic stability while blaming the U.S. for the absence of negotiations, positioning Russia as open to talks but with demands that include full Ukrainian capitulation and weakening NATO. This stance is part of a Kremlin strategy aiming for Western concessions on Ukraine’s sovereignty. Putin also highlighted Russia’s nuclear capabilities as a warning against Western escalation, using nuclear threats to deter Western support for Ukraine. Despite these threats, there has been no significant Russian military escalation in response to Western aid to Ukraine, and experts assess the likelihood of Russian nuclear use as highly unlikely.
Russia claims the right to enforce its laws on citizens of NATO and former Soviet states for actions in their own countries, recently convicting a Latvian citizen in absentia for participating with the Ukrainian military and desecrating a Soviet memorial in Latvia, sentencing him to 10 years. Russia lacks legal authority for such prosecutions outside its jurisdiction but has placed officials from NATO countries on its wanted list for alleged violations of Russian law abroad. This move is seen as part of Russia’s broader strategy to justify potential escalations against NATO states.
Additionally, Russian officials accused Latvia of intimidating Russian voters during the Russian presidential election, following a Latvian minister’s statement about the criminal liability for justifying war under Latvian law. Russia misrepresented these comments, suggesting Latvian authorities could prosecute Russian citizens for voting, further straining relations.
The Ukrainian Intelligence has revealed that Russia is scaling up its information warfare by buying Telegram channels and social media pages to spread disinformation aimed at undermining Ukrainian society and government decisions. This initiative, dubbed “Maidan-3,” has seen Russia spend around $1.5 billion, with $250 million invested in Telegram operations alone, matching its expenditure on traditional military efforts.
The Kremlin is actively pushing an information campaign in Latin America, presenting support for Russia as a stance against US dominance. Plans include forming non-profits to collaborate with media and host events to spread pro-Russian views and recruiting local journalists to report on the Ukraine conflict favorably towards Russia. The focus is particularly on Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina for these efforts.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com