Summary of the day: Despite Ukrainian shortages of ammunition and war materiel, Russian advances near Avdiivka have slowed, though the threat remains. Ukrainian actors launched significant drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and military assets. Meanwhile, in Moldova, the governor of Gagauzia deepened economic ties with Russia, potentially aiding Kremlin efforts to destabilize the region. Additionally, Russian forces repelled a cross-border incursion by pro-Ukrainian groups, emphasizing the ongoing tension along the frontline.
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Situation On The Ground And Air
Ukraine faces ammunition and military supply shortages, making its front lines vulnerable to Russian advances. Delays in US military assistance contribute to this issue. Ukrainian forces are prioritizing sectors under heavy Russian attack, risking other areas to sudden Russian breakthroughs. Interviews with Ukrainian commanders highlight the struggle to maintain positions with limited supplies, especially if Russia attacks forcefully. Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, warns of potential deep Russian advances into Ukrainian lines. The situation suggests the frontline’s stability is precarious, with an urgent need for timely Western support to prevent Russian exploitation of weaker sectors.
Russia’s strategic control over its military operations in Ukraine enables them to shift offensive priorities across the frontline as opportunities or Ukrainian weaknesses, such as shortages in materiel, emerge. This flexibility means Russia can reallocate forces and resources to exploit perceived advantages, potentially leading to reduced fighting intensity or operational pauses in some areas. Such shifts, while risky due to the chance of Ukrainian counterattacks, are considered manageable by Russia, given Western delays in security assistance and Ukraine’s ongoing supply challenges. Maintaining this strategic flexibility is key for Russia, whereas Ukraine faces tough choices due to material shortages, underlining the importance of not allowing Russia to monopolize this advantage indefinitely.
Ukraine maintains control over all settlements despite Russian attempts to occupy them and a challenging situation in the east, as confirmed by Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Contrary to Russian claims of capturing Nevelske in Donetsk, Ukraine denies any such loss. While Syrskyi acknowledges increased complexity and threats of Russian advances in certain areas of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, he also notes a decrease in Russian activity elsewhere, attributing this to the high Russian casualties and effective Ukrainian defense strategies. Reinforcements, including reserves and electronic warfare equipment, are being deployed to bolster Ukrainian positions. Despite setbacks like the loss of Avdiivka in February, President Zelensky has recently expressed that the frontline situation has improved compared to previous months, even as Ukraine grapples with ammunition shortages and delays in receiving U.S. aid.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Ongoing positional battles occurred along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, affecting areas near Synkivka (northeast of Kupyansk), Tabaivka and Stelmakhivka (northwest of Svatove), Terny and Yampolivka (west of Kreminna), and Bilohorivka (south of Kreminna).
Battles continued around Bakhmut with no significant changes to the frontline reported. Despite claims from Russian military bloggers about capturing positions near Klishchiivka’s railway station, no evidence has been provided to confirm these advances. Fighting is notably heavy in Ivanivske, west of Bakhmut. The conflict extends to areas northwest, west, and southwest of Bakhmut, involving key locations like Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Chasiv Yar, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
Russian troops have made recent advances in areas around Avdiivka. Footage confirmed Russian progress on Berdychi’s eastern outskirts (northwest of Avdiivka) and along Pershotravneva Street in Pervomaiske (southwest of Avdiivka), with ongoing efforts to move towards central Pervomaiske. Claims also suggest Russian expansions in Tonenke (west of Avdiivka) and new positions between Orlivka and Tonenke. While intense combat is reported between Berdychi and Tonenke, overall fighting in these sectors appears to have decelerated.
Russian forces’ advance west of Avdiivka has slowed, but they remain capable of intensifying operations there. After capturing Avdiivka in February, Russia maintained high offensive activity, initially making quick gains. Ukrainian forces have recently slowed these advances, despite initial doubts about their defensive capabilities. The Russian Central Grouping of Forces, mainly comprising Central Military District and Donetsk People’s Republic elements, aimed to exploit Avdiivka’s capture but has yet to deploy some units to the offensive fully. Key units, including the 90th Tank Division and the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade, serve as potential operational reserves. These units, having sustained heavy losses, are likely recuperating for future offensives. Russia’s strategy suggests they could reinforce their efforts west of Avdiivka, depending on command decisions.
Battles persisted west and southwest of Donetsk City without shifts in frontline positions. A Russian military blogger mentioned Russian advancements south of Novomykhailivka, despite challenging terrain to the north hindering progress. Reports indicate ongoing clashes near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka (west of Donetsk) and Novomykhailivka and Pobieda (southwest).
There were ongoing limited battles in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border region without any changes to the frontline positions. Conflicts were reported southeast of Velyka Novosilka near Novodonetske and Shevchenko, and south of Velyka Novosilka near Staromayorske.
Skirmishes persisted in western Zaporizhia Oblast without altering frontline positions. Clashes were reported near Robotyne and Verbove.
Russian forces reportedly conducted a brief raid in Kherson Oblast’s west bank on March 12-13, with no confirmed frontline changes. Claims from Russian sources, including the region’s occupation governor, stated that naval infantry, airborne troops, and volunteers targeted Ukrainian positions near the Antonivsky Bridge. According to reports, Russian forces withdrew back to the east bank, suggesting no intent for a permanent presence on the west bank. Continued positional battles were noted near Krynky.
Human Cost Of War
The casualty toll from a Russian missile strike on Kryvyi Rih has increased to 49, with the city experiencing at least three missile impacts, damaging residential buildings. Initial reports cited five deaths and 44 injuries. Currently, 10 adults, including five with serious injuries, and seven children with moderate injuries are hospitalized. Kryvyi Rih, President Zelensky’s hometown and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast’s second-largest city, has been a repeated target since the war’s escalation, enduring a particularly severe attack in July 2023. Zelensky condemned the ongoing Russian aggression on social media.
The aftermath of a Russian attack on an apartment building in Kryvyi Rih on March 12
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of 5 people and injuries to at least 15 others:
- Two fatalities and at least eight injuries resulted from a Russian drone strike on an apartment building in Sumy. Rescue operations continue, with two bodies recovered and ten people rescued; others may still be trapped. The attack, involving a Shahed-type drone, damaged 15 apartments and destroyed 30 more.
- Russian forces launched attacks on 10 communities in Sumy Oblast, resulting in one death and two injuries. Helicopter shelling in Velyka Pysarivka caused the casualties and over 30 explosions. The affected areas include Velyka Pysarivka, Bilopillia, Krasnopillia, Nova Sloboda, Esman, Shalyhyne, Seredyna-Buda, Znob-Novhorodske, Yunakivka, and Vorozhba, with a total of 66 attacks and 332 explosions recorded due to drones, rockets, and artillery.
- A Russian bombing in Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, killed two and injured five. The attack damaged four houses with a Grom-E1 bomb. Among the injured, one is serious, and three are moderate. Authorities urge evacuation due to ongoing shelling. A 13-year-old girl was rescued unharmed from the rubble.
Ukraine’s General Staff reported 980 Russian casualties in the past day.
Aftermath of the Russian attack on an apartment building in Sumy
Aftermath of the Russian attack on an apartment building in Myrnohrad
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian territories, targeting rear areas. A Russian Kh-31 missile was intercepted and destroyed by Ukrainian defenses. Strikes occurred in Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) and Novyi Korotych (Kharkiv Oblast) using unspecified missiles and S-300 missiles, respectively. Additionally, residential areas in Sumy Oblast were hit by Shahed-136/131 drones. In Odesa Oblast, Russian tactical aircraft fired missiles, with one being shot down over the Black Sea and another malfunctioning and landing in an open area.
Polish protesters plan to resume blocking cargo trucks at the Korczowa-Krakovets border crossing with Ukraine, according to Ukraine’s Customs Service. The protests initially started in February over Ukrainian agricultural imports and EU environmental policies. While some organizers suggested allowing trucks through at the Dorohusk-Yahodyn crossing, disagreements led to continued blockades, affecting trade between the two countries. The ongoing disputes have strained relations, with Ukrainian officials emphasizing the economic impact on Poland.
A recent poll reveals that 70% of Ukrainians have close connections to someone who has been or is on the front line since February 2022, up from 54% in July 2022. This ties with the 55% who knew a fighter from the 2014-2021 conflict in Donbas. The survey shows a high level of trust in the military, with 94% trusting service members, and 41% expecting to become veterans themselves, notably higher among men. Veterans’ primary challenges are seen as psychological issues, health care access, and disability inclusion. Additionally, public perception of the state’s support for veterans has declined, with 64% feeling the state is not meeting its responsibilities.
Ukrainians allocate 66% of their budget to essential costs, notably higher than the global average, with only 2% spent on leisure activities like dining out—much less compared to neighboring countries like Poland. The war has further altered spending habits; many now visit restaurants less and stockpile food. Despite economic pressures, Ukrainians remain charitable, with many boycotting companies active in Russia and donating to military support. Some spending patterns are returning to pre-war norms, suggesting a rebound in consumer confidence and retail sector resilience.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry clarified that the suggested mobilization of up to 500,000 individuals is a flexible estimate, not an immediate goal, adjusting to front-line needs. This statement, addressing concerns sparked by a Financial Times article, reaffirms that mobilization is crucial for Ukraine, facing an opponent with a larger population. Efforts to increase understanding of military service are ongoing, as evidenced by a successful recruitment campaign drawing over 90,000 applications for 8,000 vacancies. Ukraine is revising its mobilization strategy and legislation to improve military recruitment in 2024.
Ukraine’s Allies
EU ambassadors have tentatively agreed on €5 billion ($5.5 billion) in defense aid for Ukraine in 2024 through the European Peace Facility (EPF), as announced by the Belgian Presidency of the EU Council on March 13. The EPF, supporting Ukraine’s defense since 2022, will channel funds through the newly established Ukraine Assistance Fund. The aid aims to provide military equipment for Ukraine’s defense. This decision follows disagreements among member states over replenishing the EPF. The deal prioritizes EU-produced weaponry but doesn’t exclude non-EU sources. This aid is crucial due to delays in U.S. assistance caused by internal political disputes.
Ukraine’s Justice Minister Denys Maliuska indicated Ukraine might accept U.S. aid as loans to expedite assistance that has been stalled in Congress since autumn 2023. The U.S. Senate passed a $95 billion aid bill including $60 billion for Ukraine, but it has not been voted on in the House due to opposition from Speaker Mike Johnson. Maliuska, who prefers grant aid, stated Ukraine would consider loans if it avoids delays. During his U.S. visit, he sensed optimism among lawmakers about passing the aid, urging them to overlook political disputes for Ukraine’s support. High-ranking U.S. officials believe the aid would pass overwhelmingly if brought to vote, possibly through a “discharge petition” to bypass the speaker, which currently lacks sufficient signatures.
French President Emmanuel Macron will meet German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on March 15 to address tensions over Ukraine, according to Politico. Macron’s recent comments on potential Western troop deployment in Ukraine led to disagreements, with Scholz ruling out European or NATO ground troops. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk will also attend, with the focus on unity rather than specific agreements. It marks the first such meeting since Tusk became Poland’s Prime Minister. While Macron’s statements appear more assertive, Germany remains a major military supporter of Ukraine. France emphasizes providing impactful weaponry like SCALP missiles, contrasting Germany’s reluctance to supply Taurus missiles due to concerns of escalation.
The EU lifted sanctions against Arkady Volozh, co-founder of Yandex, Russia’s top search engine, along with 11 others. Volozh was sanctioned in June 2022 for Yandex’s alleged pro-government stance amid Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. He resigned as CEO and publicly criticized the war. Volozh, presenting himself as an Israeli entrepreneur, requested sanctions removal in August 2023. EU’s decision was reported in February 2024.
The European Investment Bank (EIB) considers investing in defense firms to bolster Europe’s defense industry amid Russia’s military advancements in Ukraine. The EIB may redefine its rules to include dual-use goods, allowing investment in both civilian and military technologies. Previously, weapons and ammunition were excluded from EIB financing. The EIB has already allocated over €1.7 billion for emergency repairs in Ukraine since the conflict began in 2022.
The European Commission plans to propose restrictions on Russian and Belarusian agricultural imports next week, aiming to address concerns raised by Poland about the surge in grain imports from these countries. The restrictions, discussed between Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, are expected to apply only within the EU to prevent global price increases. Currently, Latvia is the only EU country to have implemented such bans, with others awaiting EU-wide action.
The French Senate approved a 10-year security deal with Ukraine, following earlier approval by the lower chamber. The agreement entails significant military aid, including munitions and up to 3 billion euros ($3.3 billion) in support for Ukraine in 2024. The move reflects France’s commitment to its allies and values amid ongoing tensions in the region. French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal emphasized the importance of supporting Ukraine during the Senate debate. The deal received overwhelming support, with only 22 senators voting against it. France has pledged over 3.8 billion euros ($4.16 billion) in security assistance to Ukraine since February 2022.
Austria expelled two Russian diplomats due to actions deemed inconsistent with their diplomatic roles, with Russia denouncing the move as politically motivated. The decision followed reports of alleged Russian intelligence activities in Austria, including contacts with local parties and politicians to bolster Russian influence. Former Austrian Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl, residing in Russia, was implicated in facilitating access to ministry information. Vienna maintains neutrality in Ukraine but provides economic and humanitarian aid. Despite diplomatic tensions, Austria maintains significant economic ties with Russia, exemplified by the presence of Raiffeisen Bank International. Austria previously expelled Russian diplomats in 2023 and 2022, prompting reciprocal actions from Russia.
NATO and China held their eighth annual military staff talks in Beijing, focusing on global security, notably Russia’s war in Ukraine. The talks coincided with joint naval exercises between China, Russia, and Iran in the Gulf of Oman, as NATO conducts major drills. Major General Dacian-Tiberiu Serban led NATO’s delegation, while Major General Yao Qin led China’s. Discussions included the security landscape and the importance of ongoing engagement, but specific details were not disclosed. China has maintained support for Russia amid the conflict and advocated for its inclusion in peace negotiations.
Life In Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russia rejected the IAEA’s March 7 call for the withdrawal of its forces from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) and for the facility’s return to Ukrainian control. The Russian Foreign Ministry labeled such demands as infringements on Russia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, asserting that Russian forces are ensuring the plant’s safety while accusing Ukrainian forces of posing threats to it. This stance challenges efforts by the IAEA and other international bodies to delegitimize Russia’s occupation of the ZNPP.
Five children were retrieved from Russian-held areas. Despite Ukraine regaining parts of Kherson Oblast’s west bank in 2022, the east bank remains under Russian control, affecting many families. From over 19,500 children taken by Russia since the invasion, under 400 have been returned, based on the Children of War database. In 2024, 35 children have been recovered from Kherson. Returning children will receive necessary support for reintegration.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces targeted Russian energy and military sites with drone strikes, hitting oil refineries in Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod, and Leningrad oblasts, and military facilities in Buturlinovka and Voronezh on the night of March 12. The strikes caused a fire in Ryazan and halted operations at Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Rostov Oblast. Russia reported shooting down 58 drones that night, asserting increased drone attacks in recent days. Despite no official Ukrainian confirmation, the attacks are part of ongoing efforts to disrupt Russian war funding and demonstrate vulnerabilities in Russian infrastructure.
View after an alleged drone attack on an oil refinery in Ryazan Oblast
Russian forces repelled an attempted incursion by groups opposing the Kremlin, including the Russian Volunteer Corps and others, in the Belgorod and Kursk regions on March 12-13. The involved groups asserted they targeted Russian military locations and issued evacuation warnings to civilians. Claims of seizing Tetkino in Kursk were unsupported by the provided video evidence from Sumy, Ukraine. Ukraine’s military intelligence noted the events, indicating persistent cross-border conflict.
Putin alleges that the incursion by Russian anti-Kremlin groups into Russia was intended to disrupt the upcoming presidential elections. Putin speculates their actions aim to influence territory negotiations and the electoral process. The Siberian Battalion has called on Russians to disregard the elections, suggesting the polls are a sham.
The Gagauzia governor, Yevgenia Gutsul, announced on March 13 that her meetings in Russia from March 1 to 8 aimed to strengthen economic ties between Gagauzia, a pro-Russian autonomous region in Moldova, and Russia. These talks focused on securing a special gas tariff for Gagauzia, enabling remote account openings in Russia’s MIR payment system for Gagauzian entities, and easing access to the Russian market for Gagauzian businesses, promising them significant advantages over other Moldovan regions. This move aligns with Russia’s strategy to undermine Moldova’s attempts to join the European Union by leveraging energy dependencies and economic incentives to foster instability and retain influence in Moldova. Offering Gagauzia favorable gas tariffs and market access could hinder Moldova’s shift towards European energy suppliers and exacerbate domestic discontent with higher gas prices, further complicating Moldova’s EU accession ambitions.
The Kremlin aims to utilize collaboration with pro-Russian figures in Moldova, including Gagauzia’s governor Yevgenia Gutsul and influential politicians like Igor Dodon, Vladimir Voronin, Ilan Shor, and the Moldovan Revival Party, to influence Moldova’s presidential and parliamentary elections. These efforts are seen as part of Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy to keep Moldova within its sphere of influence and hinder its EU accession process. Gutsul’s upcoming discussions with these Kremlin-aligned actors, despite lacking extensive political experience herself, indicate orchestrated efforts to align Gagauzia more closely with pro-Russian forces in Moldova. The goal is likely to form a coalition against the current pro-Western government, leveraging internal divisions to destabilize Moldova’s push towards the EU.
Ahead of the Russian presidential election, authorities are taking measures to suppress the protests of soldiers’ families. The police warned Maria Andreeva, leader of the “Way Home” movement, against “extremist activities.” This movement, critical of President Putin for neglecting the concerns of mobilized soldiers’ families, has encouraged voting on March 17, implying support for an alternative candidate. The Kremlin has been actively trying to silence and discredit “Way Home” since December 2023.
A Russian insider reported that the Kremlin plans to shift responsibilities from the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) and replace its head, Vladimir Kolokoltsev, sometime in 2024. The Federal Security Service (FSB) is expected to oversee the personnel changes, possibly promoting one of Kolokoltsev’s deputies to the top position. These claims have not been independently verified.
Ukrainian hackers disrupted Moscow and Kazan’s public transport payment systems causing commuters to be unable to pay for tickets or parking. The IT Army of Ukraine, a volunteer hacker group, executed the cyberattack targeting the Troika fare system, impacting 38 regions. This follows a series of cyber warfare incidents between Russia and Ukraine, with Ukraine’s military intelligence also breaching Russian defense servers, and Ukraine facing significant cyberattacks on its telecommunications infrastructure.
Igor Krasnov, head of Boris Nadezhdin’s presidential campaign, was arrested in Vladivostok for sharing an “extremist LGBT” message and sentenced to six days in prison. Nadezhdin, a critic of Russia’s war in Ukraine, faced hurdles in his presidential bid, including invalidated signatures. Krasnov’s arrest came after sharing a message with a rainbow flag emoji. Russia’s tightened laws on LGBT rights classify the movement as extremist, leading to arrests for displaying rainbow symbols.
Leonid Volkov, former chief of staff to Alexei Navalny, vows to continue his work after being attacked with a hammer and tear gas in Lithuania. He sustained injuries but is determined to persevere. Volkov relocated to Lithuania in 2020 after Russian authorities targeted him and was added to Russia’s wanted list. His assailants remain unknown.
Russia’s Allies
Key Russian and Belarusian officials, including Union State Secretary Dmitry Mezentsev and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk, discussed economic cooperation. Overchuk highlighted that Russian companies signed over 5,200 trade contracts with Belarusian counterparts from March 2022 to February 2024, indicating close economic ties. This collaboration is viewed as aiding Russian firms in bypassing international sanctions.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Maria Zakharova, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, announced that Russia will not participate in the Ukraine peace summit to be held in Switzerland, despite Ukraine’s proposal and the potential invitation of Russian representatives. The summit, agreed to by Switzerland in January 2024, aims to gather over 160 countries to support Ukraine’s sovereignty through Kyiv’s 10-point peace plan, presented by President Zelensky in 2022. The plan includes withdrawal of Russian troops and ensuring Ukraine’s territorial integrity, energy, food, and nuclear safety. However, Moscow has dismissed the plan, with Putin labeling negotiations with Ukraine as “ridiculous” amid its ammunition shortage and insisting on disarmament conditions. Contradictorily, Russian state media assert openness to talks, blaming Ukraine for unwillingness, while Russia continues to seek concessions that would compromise Ukrainian sovereignty and identity.
Putin reiterated Russia’s stance on nuclear readiness, emphasizing that Russia would use nuclear weapons only to protect its state’s existence. This statement aims to deter Western support for Ukraine by raising fears of nuclear escalation. However, there’s no change in Russia’s nuclear doctrine, and this rhetoric likely serves to intimidate the West. Experts believe that the actual use of a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine by Russia is highly unlikely.
The Ukrainian intelligence has revealed that Russia plans to escalate an information campaign named “Perun” to undermine Ukraine’s image ahead of Russia’s presidential election on March 17. This operation involves discrediting Ukrainian and pro-Ukrainian figures in the West and perpetuating the narrative of Ukrainians as “Nazis.” It’s expected to peak around the election and wrap up by June 2024. Simultaneously, Russia is running “Maidan-3,” aiming to create unrest and divide between the Ukrainian public and its leaders, with a significant push planned for May 2024.
A notable Kremlin-supported military blogger has accused the West of influencing Armenian officials through bribery and blackmail to adopt anti-Russian stances. Observers believe Russia is gearing up for a more forceful reaction as Armenia seeks closer ties with Western countries, moving away from its traditional alignment with Russia.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com