Summary of the day: The Ukrainian State Security Service (SBU) executed successful drone strikes on three Russian oil refineries in Samara Oblast, intensifying the conflict dynamics. Concurrently, all-Russian pro-Ukrainian volunteers carried out cross-border raids into Belgorod and Kursk oblasts, signaling a continued resistance against Russian military advances. Amidst these developments, Russian authorities appointed Boris Kovalchuk, closely linked to President Putin, to a significant role within the Russian Presidential Administration, highlighting internal power consolidations. Furthermore, Russia faced internal challenges with threats against election disruptors and external pressures as the G7 countries issued warnings against Iran’s potential military support to Russia. The day also saw Russian forces making strategic advances in Ukraine, amidst claims of internal discord following the revocation of an agreement for former Wagner Group units by Rosgvardia Director Viktor Zolotov.
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Situation On The Ground And Air
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces thwarted attempts by two Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups to infiltrate Sumy Oblast across the international border. Meanwhile, ongoing positional battles along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line did not result in any confirmed shifts in the frontline, with engagements reported in areas around Kupyansk and Kreminna. This indicates a continued pattern of localized skirmishes without significant territorial changes in these sectors.
The area around Bakhmut experienced continued positional fighting without any changes to the frontline. Clashes occurred in several locations surrounding Bakhmut, including northeast, northwest, west, and southwest of the city. Reports indicate the involvement of specific Russian units near Ivanivske and in the direction of Chasiv Yar. Despite the ongoing engagements, the frontlines around Bakhmut remained stable, with no territorial gains reported by either side.
Russian forces have likely taken control of Tonenke and Nevelske near Avdiivka, supported by geolocated footage showing advancements and a flag-raising ceremony in Nevelske. The capture of these areas is part of a broader strategy to pressure Ukrainian defenses, shifting from infantry-led assaults to more armored vehicle-led offensives. Despite these gains, Russian advances face challenges, especially on the northern flank near Berdychi, where Ukrainian forces maintain tactical advantages and continue to conduct counterattacks. Positional fighting persists in areas surrounding Avdiivka. Ukrainian commanders report that while they have managed to slow the Russian advance, the situation remains fluid, with both sides adjusting tactics and deployments to gain the upper hand in a dynamically evolving battlefield.
The areas west and southwest of Donetsk City saw continued positional fighting without any shifts in the frontlines. Battles were specifically reported near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka to the west, and Novomykhailivka, Volodymyrivka to the southwest, along a key highway.
Russian forces made recent advances in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, particularly southwest of Velyka Novosilka, as confirmed by geolocated footage. These advancements included moving to a position west of Pryyutne. Despite claims of further Russian progress near Shevchenko, there is no visual confirmation. Ongoing positional battles were reported south of Velyka Novosilka near Staromayorske.
Ongoing battles were reported near Robotyne and Verbove in western Zaporizhia Oblast, with no significant changes in frontlines. A claim from a Russian source suggested that Russian forces made progress north of Verbove, advancing up to a kilometer, though this has not been independently verified. This indicates continued military activity in the region without conclusive shifts in territorial control.
There were ongoing skirmishes in the eastern part of Kherson Oblast, particularly around the area of Krynky. Additionally, it was reported that Ukrainian forces are holding positions near the Antonivsky Bridge, though it’s unclear if this refers to the railway or roadway bridge. This reflects continued military activity in the region without significant changes in control.
Human Cost Of War
A drone strike on Sumy by Russia on March 13 resulted in three deaths, 12 hospitalizations, and one person missing after rescue operations concluded. The attack destroyed 30 apartments and damaged additional buildings. Utilities have been restored to the affected area, barring the destroyed parts. Despite daily attacks due to Sumy’s closeness to the Russian border, with 69 attacks hitting 14 communities on March 15, the region remains under frequent bombardment.
The Interior Minister of Ukraine, Ihor Klymenko, reported that the missile strike in Odesa on March 15 resulted in 21 fatalities, with the toll rising after another injured individual succumbed to their wounds in the hospital. Additionally, at least 73 people were injured, including first responders and police officers. Among the deceased are Odesa’s former deputy mayor and the commander of a special police battalion. Rescue operations were complicated by a subsequent strike at the same location.
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of 1 person and injuries to another:
- A Russian artillery attack on the village of Novoselivka Persha in Donetsk Oblast resulted in the death of a 51-year-old man and injury to another. The injured individual has been hospitalized.
Missile strikes on the city of Belgorod, Russia, resulted in two fatalities. Air defense systems allegedly intercepted eight missiles. In addition to the casualties, three individuals were injured, and there was reported damage to buildings and vehicles.
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces announced that Russian military casualties included 1,160 personnel in the past day.
Ukraine News
On the night of March 15 to 16, Russia launched a series of drone and missile attacks on various locations in Ukraine, targeting civilian and critical infrastructure. In Sumy Oblast, Konotop was hit by a missile, while in Kharkiv Oblast, Kozacha Lopan and Zolochiv were attacked with drones and an Iskander missile, respectively. Donetsk Oblast saw strikes on Slovyansk and Myrnohrad with missiles and S-300s. Additionally, a Russian missile strike in Odesa City on March 15 resulted in 20 deaths. Russian claims of hitting a sanatorium in Odesa and causing significant Ukrainian military casualties have not been verified.
Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, announced on national TV that Ukraine acknowledges anti-Kremlin militias as a significant force and intends to support their operations in Russia. These militias, including the Freedom of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps, have been active in the Belgorod and Kursk oblasts since March 12 and do not plan to cease their activities. Budanov emphasized that these units have supported Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict and that Ukrainian forces will assist them as much as possible. The Freedom of Russia Legion has warned of continued attacks in the region, while the governor of Belgorod reported rocket attacks, although Ukrainian officials have not verified these incidents. Belgorod, frequently alleging strikes, is situated close to Ukraine’s Kharkiv Oblast border.
Ukraine’s High Anti-Corruption Court has decided to release ex-Defense Ministry official Oleksandr Liyev, who was involved in weapons procurement, without bail. Liyev was arrested in February 2024 over a corruption scandal involving undelivered mortar shells worth approximately $40 million, as uncovered by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). Despite initial bail set at $1.3 million, he has now been released, though he had been accused of attempting to flee the country and has denied the charges. The case revolves around a failed contract with Lviv Arsenal, and the misappropriation of funds intended for arms supplies.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukrainian police are investigating an incident at the Khust military enlistment office in Zakarpattia Oblast, where a man allegedly attempted suicide. Detained on March 13 for trying to illegally leave Ukraine, he was found with self-inflicted injuries after being taken to verify his identity due to restrictions preventing men aged 18-60 from exiting the country. His girlfriend contests the official account, claiming he was kidnapped and falsely accused by border guards, then mistreated by enlistment office staff. This case highlights broader issues with mobilization and alleged abuses within the enlistment system as Ukraine continues its mobilization efforts amid the ongoing conflict with Russia.
Ukraine’s Allies
The G7 countries have warned Iran against supplying ballistic missiles or technology to Russia, promising swift, coordinated responses with significant measures, possibly including banning Iran Air flights to Europe. Despite reports of Iran starting missile transfers to Russia, with claims of 400 short-range ballistic missiles already delivered, the US and allies have yet to confirm these transfers. This situation underscores growing concerns over Iran’s role in supporting Russia’s military actions in Ukraine and the international community’s efforts to prevent escalation.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed the delay in U.S. aid for Ukraine during a phone call on March 16. A $60 billion aid package for Ukraine is held up in the U.S. Congress, with the House of Representatives, led by Republican Speaker Mike Johnson, yet to vote. Kuleba expressed gratitude for recent U.S. military aid but emphasized the urgent need for air defense and artillery ammunition to prevent Russian advances. Blinken reaffirmed U.S. support for Ukraine’s sovereignty, while Kuleba warned that withholding aid could threaten broader European and U.S. security. Ukraine has been withdrawing from strategic areas due to a lack of resources, underscoring the urgency for the aid package’s approval.
Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen suggested that Western countries should not dismiss the idea of deploying troops to Ukraine if the situation worsens. This stance follows French President Emmanuel Macron’s comments, which sparked debate among NATO allies about the potential for such involvement. While nations like Germany and the U.S. have firmly declined the possibility, Macron considers the war “existential” for France and is open to options. Finland itself is not prepared to send troops, with Valtonen highlighting the immediate priority of increasing Western aid to Ukraine.
The EU is urging its members to cut back on Russian liquified natural gas (LNG) purchases in 2024, aiming to lessen dependency on Moscow’s energy exports, a significant income source for Russia, especially after sanctions were imposed due to the Ukraine conflict. Despite a decrease in pipeline gas imports from Russia in 2022, European LNG purchases hit record levels without facing specific restrictions. EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson emphasized the need for disengagement from Russian LNG, highlighting the importance of alternative suppliers like the U.S., the EU’s top LNG provider. Efforts include potentially banning Russian and Belarusian firms from EU gas infrastructure, with some countries already ceasing Russian LNG imports.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk urged U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson to act on stalled Ukraine aid following a deadly Russian attack on Odesa, which killed 21. Despite the U.S. Senate passing a $95 billion aid bill in February, including significant support for Ukraine, the proposal remains unaddressed in the House. Tusk highlighted the urgency in light of the Odesa tragedy. Meanwhile, some House Republicans propose revising the aid as a loan, and Johnson has considered separate bills for Ukraine and Israel to gather broader support. This delay impacts Ukraine severely, as evidenced by its forced retreat from strategic locations due to ammunition shortages.
Latvia’s State Security Service is investigating Tatjana Zdanoka, a Latvian MEP, for alleged espionage on behalf of Russia. Zdanoka, who served in the European Parliament from 2004 to 2018 and from 2019 onwards, is suspected of being a Russian asset since at least 2015. The criminal case against her was initiated on February 22, following a review of the claims by the Latvian security service. Despite the leaked communications suggesting her involvement with Russian intelligence, Zdanoka contends the interactions were harmless or made unknowingly with intelligence operatives. Her political actions have consistently shown support for Russia, including observing the controversial Crimea referendum and opposing the European Parliament’s denunciation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
U.K. Defense Secretary Grant Shapps had to cancel his trip to Odesa during a visit to Ukraine after Russian intelligence became aware of his itinerary, as reported by the Sunday Times. Shapps was in Kyiv on March 7 to announce a new £325 million military aid package for Ukraine. His planned visit to Odesa was aborted due to security concerns informed by U.K. intelligence. On his way back, the aircraft carrying Shapps experienced satellite signal jamming near Kaliningrad, Russia. Shapps criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reckless actions in light of this incident and the recent missile attack on Odesa that killed 21 people and injured over 70, emphasizing the danger posed to Western leaders and civilians.
Czech President Petr Pavel stated that peace talks between Russia and Ukraine seem unlikely due to Russia’s insistence on conditions that aim to subjugate Ukraine rather than ensure peace. International calls for negotiations, including from Pope Francis and Turkish President Erdogan, face skepticism given Russia’s demands, which Pavel describes as unjustifiable diktats from the aggressor. Putin maintains the invasion’s goals of “demilitarization” and “de-Nazification” of Ukraine, while Ukraine proposes a peace plan requiring Russian troop withdrawal, which Moscow rejects. A 2022 proposal by Russia suggested limiting Ukraine’s military capabilities and NATO membership, which would leave Ukraine vulnerable. Pavel predicts the conflict may end through military victory or mutual exhaustion rather than negotiations. Despite controversial suggestions for Western troop involvement in Ukraine, Pavel advocates for discussions on non-combat roles, such as training missions.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces carried out drone strikes on three major Russian oil refineries in Samara Oblast, impacting 10% of Russia’s annual oil refinement capacity. These attacks caused significant fires at the facilities and highlighted vulnerabilities in Russia’s defense against drone warfare. Despite efforts to bolster anti-drone systems, the effectiveness of Ukraine’s strategy raises questions about Russia’s ability to protect critical infrastructure. The incidents reflect ongoing tensions and the strategic targeting of energy resources in the conflict.
The Russian Volunteer Corps and other pro-Ukrainian Russian volunteers, such as the Freedom of Russia Legion, are persistently conducting cross-border raids into Russia’s Belgorod and Kursk regions, a move which directly challenges the official Russian military narrative of repelling Ukrainian incursions with heavy militia casualties. In a pointed rebuttal to these claims, the Volunteer Corps has released a video showing a captured Russian lieutenant among other prisoners with obscured identities, aiming to counteract Russia’s account and pushing for a POW exchange. This claim, however, remains unverified by independent sources. Ukraine’s military intelligence recognizes these militias as comprising Russian citizens who operate independently of Kyiv’s orders. The continued cross-border actions of these groups underline the ongoing complexities and tensions in the region.
Boris Kovalchuk, linked to President Vladimir Putin through his father Yuri Kovalchuk, has been appointed deputy head of the Presidential Control Directorate in Russia. This key role involves overseeing the implementation of Putin’s orders across federal and regional levels. Boris, who formerly led the energy company Inter RAO for 15 years, had multiple high-profile positions to consider before taking this appointment. His new position indicates the growing influence of the Kovalchuk family and their close associates within the Kremlin, highlighting internal power dynamics and alliances within the Russian government.
Russian authorities are cracking down on efforts to disrupt the presidential election, with at least 15 criminal cases opened and some individuals detained. Accusations range from arson to damaging ballot boxes, affecting 29 polling stations across 20 regions. Officials, including the Central Election Commission Chairperson and the Deputy Chairperson of the Russian Security Council, have labeled disruptors as traitors, suggesting such actions aid Ukraine and could lead to charges of high treason. A proposed bill seeks to toughen penalties for those interfering with elections, potentially imposing prison sentences of five to eight years. This response indicates the Kremlin’s sensitivity to any actions that might undermine the portrayal of unity around President Putin, despite the limited impact of public protests on the election’s outcome.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
A report emerged suggesting that Rosgvardia’s Director, Viktor Zolotov, has ended an arrangement that permitted former Wagner Group units to function autonomously within Rosgvardia. The move included disbanding a Wagner base in Rostov Oblast, signaling a shift away from treating these units as independent entities. This decision follows speculation about an agreement ensuring Wagner’s operational independence under Rosgvardia after the deaths of its key figures in 2023. Zolotov’s change of stance reportedly came after realizing the limitations of former Wagner Commander Anton Yelizarov in rallying additional support from ex-Wagner personnel.
It was reported that Russian authorities have stopped issuing combat veteran certificates to veterans of the “Storm Z” convict units in the Southern Military District. The refusal to provide these certificates was noted in Krasnodar Krai, Kabardino-Balkaria Republic, and Astrakhan and Volgograd oblasts. This decision is seen as a potential measure to reduce the financial burden associated with veterans’ benefits.
Russia’s Allies
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko had a phone conversation discussing bilateral relations and regional matters. Details of the discussion have not been disclosed by Russian or Belarusian sources.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Russian authorities are highlighting the presidential election as fair and widely supported, reporting over half of eligible voters had participated by the afternoon of March 16. Despite the presence of international observers and claims of non-interference, reports of voting irregularities have emerged, including ballot stuffing in Krasnodar Krai and discrepancies in voter turnout data in Moscow Oblast. Russian officials also allege that Estonian authorities are hindering Russian voters abroad, with further accusations of intimidation by other “unfriendly countries.” These developments come amid warnings from Russia to the UK against alleged election interference.
Russian entities are allegedly contacting relatives of Ukrainian POWs to stir unrest in Ukraine, suggesting Ukraine’s leaders are blocking POW returns, and urging protests. This tactic is seen as part of Russia’s “Maidan-3” campaign to create internal discord and distrust towards Ukrainian authorities. Ukraine’s Human Rights Ombudsman confirms ongoing POW exchanges and warns against these divisive strategies, previously used to incite protests in Ukraine.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com