Summary of the day: In a significant escalation of tensions, Russian authorities have arrested individuals linked to the March 22 attack at the Crocus City Hall concert venue, which resulted in at least 133 civilian casualties. While the Islamic State is deemed very likely responsible by the Institute for the Study of War, the Kremlin has hastily tried to implicate Ukrainian involvement, albeit without concrete evidence. Concurrently, Russian ultranationalists have leveraged the attack to amplify xenophobic demands, amidst concerns over migrant disenfranchisement potentially aiding Salafi-Jihadi recruitment within Russia. Additionally, Russia faces internal and external military pressures, evidenced by a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian oil refinery and delays in delivering S-400 air defense systems to India, alongside confirmed Russian military gains in Ukraine and a new law by President Putin easing mobilization by pardoning criminal liabilities for those enlisted.
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Russian Plans of Conquest Beyond Ukraine
The U.S. Congress approved $228 million in military aid for Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, as announced by the Estonian Defense Ministry. These Baltic nations, NATO allies located along the Russian border, have seen increased tensions with Moscow since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur highlighted the aid’s role in accelerating military development projects in the region, noting an increase from the previous year’s support. This move reinforces U.S. commitment to the security of the Baltic states. Since 2020, the U.S. has been enhancing the military capabilities of these countries through the Baltic Security Initiative, focusing on air defense, maritime awareness, and land forces. The Baltic states, vocal supporters of Ukraine, prepare for the potential of a direct conflict with Russia, acknowledging Moscow’s preparations for long-term confrontation with NATO, especially in the Baltic region.
In response to a Russian drone and missile attack on Ukraine, Poland activated its air defense procedures and scrambled fighter jets to secure its airspace. This precautionary measure was taken as Russia targeted various Ukrainian oblasts, including areas close to Poland’s border. Despite no reported airspace violations, Poland’s actions reflect heightened vigilance given past incidents where Russian missiles crossed into Polish territory.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Mikhail Razvozhayev, the Russian-appointed leader in Sevastopol, Crimea, reported that “10 missiles were intercepted” over the city on the evening of March 23, amidst ongoing attacks. He noted damage in various locations and reported a woman and a boy sustained injuries. Unverified social media posts showed explosions and smoke in the city. Razvozhayev advised residents to stay in shelters and attributed the smoke to military camouflage tactics. Additional reports indicated sounds of explosions and a fire near Simferopol airport.
Sumy Oblast experienced 115 attacks from Russian forces across 31 incidents, targeting communities including Khotin, Yunakivka, Bilopillia, Krasnopillia, Velyka Pysarivka, Seredyna-Buda, Shalyhyne, and Novoslobidske. The assaults involved mortar, artillery, rocket, drone, and missile strikes, with drones dropping explosives on three communities. Krasnopillia and Velyka Pysarivka were the most heavily attacked areas, witnessing 50 and 37 explosions respectively.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
The front lines along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna area remained unchanged despite ongoing positional battles. Clashes were reported in areas around Kupyansk, Svatove, Kreminna, including Synkivka, Tabaivka, Berestove, Terny, Yampolivka, and Bilohorivka. Ukrainian forces described Russian tactics as “meat assaults” involving small infantry units supported by artillery, drones, and anti-aircraft systems, with occasional armored assaults. In one instance, a Russian mechanized assault with 10 armored vehicles was met with Ukrainian forces destroying six of these. Russian attacks in the Yampolivka and Terny directions involved significant forces, indicating a heavy military engagement in these regions.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that its forces captured Ivanivske, located west of Bakhmut, amidst ongoing battles in the area. However, there’s no visual proof to confirm this capture or further advances claimed by Russian milbloggers. Battles continue around Bakhmut, including to its northwest, west, southwest, and south, as well as in the Siversk area to the northeast. Ukrainian forces report inflicting heavy losses on Russian troops, disabling 60-70% of Russian vehicles engaged in assaults. Russian units, including airborne and motorized rifle regiments, are actively involved in assaults in various directions around Bakhmut, with Ukrainian forces countering these offensives effectively.
Russian forces made slight progress west of Avdiivka with geolocated footage showing minor advances near Berdychi and west of Tonenke. Claims of further advances near Tonenke and north of Orlivka lack visual confirmation. Fighting persisted in areas around Avdiivka, including its northwest, west, and southwest.
Russian forces made small advances southwest of Donetsk City, with some positional battles occurring to the city’s west and southwest. Geolocated footage from March 11 showed minor progress north of Novomykhailivka, although this likely wasn’t a recent development. Claims of advancements towards Krasnohorivka remain unverified. Ukrainian forces have reportedly repelled Russian attacks in areas west and southwest of Donetsk City, including Krasnohorivka and Novomykhailivka.
The frontline along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border remained unchanged despite ongoing positional battles. Skirmishes were reported near Novodarivka, Urozhaine, Staromayorske, and Vodyane, all in proximity to Velyka Novosilka.
Russian troops made slight progress in western Zaporizhia Oblast, with recent battles focusing near Robotyne and Verbove. Geolocated footage from March 23 shows a small advancement west of Verbove. Ukrainian forces noted that Russian assaults in the past few days lacked significant armored support, with attacks beginning at dawn. Russia is increasingly employing night-time drone operations with first-person view (FPV) drones, alongside substantial electronic warfare efforts that disrupt Ukrainian drone frequencies. Additionally, Russia has used tear gas and potentially prohibited riot control agents, affecting Ukrainian military capabilities in the region.
Ukrainian forces successfully repelled two Russian attacks in the eastern part of Kherson Oblast, including the area near Krynky.
Ukrainian Victims Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the injuries of five people:
- Russian forces targeted a relief center in Kherson Oblast, wounding three individuals. This attack occurred in the Novooleksandrivka community, utilizing two drones. Kherson, having been liberated by Ukraine’s Armed Forces in fall 2022, continues to suffer from attacks across the Dnipro River by Russian forces, leading to civilian casualties and significant damage to the area. The recent strike injured two women and a man at what is known in Ukraine as an “invincibility center.”
- A drone strike by Russia in Beryslav, Kherson Oblast, injured two 31-year-old men, as reported by the Kherson Oblast Military Administration. One man sustained a blast injury and shrapnel wounds to his legs, while the other suffered a contusion and multiple injuries to his head, face, and legs. Both individuals are currently receiving medical treatment.
Ukraine News
On the night of March 22 to 23, Russian forces launched a series of missile and drone attacks across Ukraine. Four S-300 missiles targeted Donetsk Oblast, and 34 Shahed drones were launched from Kursk and Crimea, with Ukrainian forces downing 31 of these drones in various regions. Additionally, Odesa Oblast faced an Iskander-M missile strike, and Zaporizhzhia City was hit by a Kh-59 cruise missile. Another ballistic missile targeted Odesa Oblast on March 23 but landed in open territory without causing reported damage.
Following the missile strike on March 22 that heavily damaged the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant, Ukraine’s largest, Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko warned of potential future Russian attacks on the Dnipro Dam. The power plant’s capacity has been reduced by a third, but there is no current risk of dam failure. This attack, which also resulted in civilian deaths and injuries, is part of a larger pattern of strikes aimed at causing blackouts by targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Emergency repairs are underway, but a full recovery is expected to take a considerable amount of time, amidst ongoing efforts to intercept further attacks.
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure since February 2022 have resulted in losses exceeding $11.5 billion, as stated by Deputy Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk, not including the recent strike on the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant. The attack on the plant, crucial to Ukraine’s energy system, could amount to damages in the billions and has left part of the facility critically damaged. Despite ongoing assessments, the country has faced significant disruptions, with the past winter’s strikes nearly halving the energy system’s capacity and causing blackouts. However, Ukraine endured this past winter solely on domestic gas, marking a stride toward energy independence. The Energy Ministry’s damage assessment was supported by the World Bank.
Ukraine’s Allies
Western sanctions are impacting Russia’s oil trade, with Indian refineries declining shipments from Russia’s state-owned Sovcomflot shipping company. Russia, facing sanctions due to its invasion of Ukraine, has turned to countries like India, its second-largest oil buyer after China. However, sanctions have left many Russian oil tankers idling, unable to dock in Indian ports. The U.S. has increased its sanctions on Russian oil, targeting around 40 tankers and putting Sovcomflot under new sanctions for bypassing the $60-per-barrel price cap. The G7 is intensifying enforcement of this cap, with Russia attempting to circumvent it through a “ghost fleet.” Sovcomflot’s share in transporting Russian crude to India was significant in 2023. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian refineries have potentially reduced the country’s refinery capacity by at least 10%.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Ukraine’s military intelligence reports that a joint operation with local resistance in Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulted in the death of Russian soldiers and the destruction of their military equipment on March 22. The city, home to about 150,000 people before the war and under occupation since March 2022, has witnessed resistance actions against Russian forces. The intelligence update suggests preliminary counts of around 20 Russian soldiers and several military vehicles affected by the explosions, with exact details still being confirmed. These reports from the occupied territories, while consistent, have not been independently verified.
Russia News
Russian authorities arrested 11 people linked to the March 22 attack at Crocus City Hall, Moscow, which resulted in at least 133 deaths and 140 injuries. The assailants, reportedly Tajik nationals, carried out the assault in 18 minutes, using machine guns and explosives. Detained in Bryansk Oblast, these individuals were captured with the aid of geolocated footage. The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) and the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) are involved in the investigation and response to this violent incident.
The Islamic State (IS), particularly its Afghan branch IS-Khorasan (IS-K), is highly likely responsible for the attack on Crocus City Hall in Moscow. IS’s Amaq News Agency claimed responsibility, showcasing images of the attackers, and labeling it as a significant strike against Christians. This claim aligns with IS’s historical patterns of taking responsibility for attacks to maintain credibility and support its fundraising and propaganda efforts. Western intelligence had previously assessed that IS-K could conduct external operations against Western interests by late 2023. Allegations of the attack being a false flag operation or orchestrated by Ukrainian services are contradicted by the evidence and IS’s operational history, suggesting a genuine IS operation rather than manipulation by external state actors.
Following the Crocus City Hall attack, Russian ultranationalists have amplified their xenophobic demands for stricter anti-migrant policies, linking the tragedy to increased migration and the presence of diaspora communities in Russia. They argue these communities form parallel societies and accuse Ukraine and the West of orchestrating the attack to deepen ethnic tensions within Russia. Such rhetoric reflects broader concerns about migrant disenfranchisement potentially aiding the recruitment of Salafi-Jihadi groups. With Russia’s military recruitment driving migrants away from civil society and towards enlistment as one of the few remaining options, these tensions risk exacerbating the divisions and hostilities that such extremist groups might exploit.
Russian reports allege a Ukrainian drone strike hit the Kuibyshev Oil Refinery in Samara Oblast, causing significant damage, as part of Ukraine’s broader strategy to weaken Russia’s economic foundations critical to its war effort. The strike, captured in footage showing a large fire and smoke, aimed at disrupting Russia’s fuel supply capabilities. According to BBC Russian Service and statements by a former US Army Commander, these actions are intended to reduce Russia’s economic potential and impact its military operations.
Russia has postponed delivering two S-400 air defense systems to India, originally scheduled by the end of 2024, now expected by August 2026. This delay is attributed to production constraints, the redirection of defense resources to protect Russia against Ukrainian drone strikes, and strained relations between Russia and India. The reallocation is partly due to Russia’s immediate defense needs amid the Ukraine conflict and its decision to prioritize deliveries to more aligned allies following India’s stance on Russian oil imports amidst Western sanctions.
The March 15-17 presidential election in Russia is deemed the most manipulated in the country’s recent history, with estimations of fraudulent votes ranging from 22 million to potentially 40 million when including online voting and coerced voting in occupied Ukrainian territories. Mathematical analyses and video evidence point to widespread ballot stuffing and other fraudulent activities. The manipulation tactics extended beyond vote rigging to include intimidation, forced voting by state employees, and the silencing of political opposition. Analysts highlight the unprecedented scale of fraud, with mathematical models like Sergei Shpilkin’s revealing abnormal voting patterns indicative of manipulation. The recent election saw extensive use of electronic voting, criticized for its lack of transparency and potential for abuse. In occupied Ukrainian areas, Russian forces reportedly coerced voting, contributing to inflated voter turnout figures that exceeded local populations. Independent observers and analysts argue that these practices undermine the legitimacy of the electoral process, with electronic voting offering new avenues for untraceable fraud.
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Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law exempting individuals from criminal liability if they are mobilized or sign military service contracts. This amnesty applies to crimes committed within Russia and in the occupied regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson before their illegal annexation in September 2022. The law covers minor and medium gravity crimes, excluding offenses related to terrorism, sexual crimes, or public safety violations. This move is seen as a way to broaden Russia’s military recruitment base beyond current schemes involving convicts.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested, without evidence, that the suspects in the Moscow shooting, which resulted in 133 deaths, were planning to escape to Ukraine. He implied Ukrainian involvement in terrorism by claiming there was a plan to help the attackers flee. The Kremlin has not formally accused Ukraine, although it has hinted at Ukrainian involvement. These assertions appear to be an attempt to strengthen domestic support for the war by implicating Ukraine and the West in the attack, despite denials from Kyiv and the lack of a direct accusation. The insinuation also disregards the claim of responsibility by the Islamic State. Ukraine’s military intelligence labeled the event a Russian provocation, reminiscent of past incidents used to justify political and military agendas. President Zelensky and the White House have both dismissed Russia’s claims of Ukrainian involvement.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com