Russian Forces Closing In On Chasiv Yar – Day 760 (March 24, 2024)

Summary of the day: In a series of significant military activities, Ukrainian forces targeted a Black Sea Fleet communications center in Crimea, also impacting an oil depot and damaging two landing ships. Concurrently, Russian forces launched attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City, with ongoing confrontations across the front line. Despite approaching Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces are not expected to encircle or seize the area soon, with the potential capture offering limited operational advantages. Amidst these developments, the Islamic State claimed responsibility for an attack in Russia, leading to heightened anti-migrant sentiments and legislative actions, including a new law by President Putin to bolster military reserves.

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Russian Plans of Conquest Beyond Ukraine

During a Russian missile attack on Ukraine on March 24, a missile entered Polish airspace for 39 seconds, leading Poland to scramble jets and report the violation to NATO allies. The Polish military did not engage the missile, anticipating it would return to Ukrainian airspace based on its trajectory to avoid risking civilian lives with falling debris. Following this and similar previous incidents, including a fatal one in November 2022, the Polish Foreign Ministry is demanding Moscow explain these breaches and is calling for a cessation of Russian aggression.

Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine

The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported that Russian forces incurred 990 casualties within the previous day.

Ukrainian forces launched an assault on a Russian naval center in Crimea, striking a Black Sea Fleet communications center with missiles and drones, resulting in substantial damage to infrastructure, oil storage facilities, and two Ropucha-class landing ships, “Yamal” and “Azov.” The severity of the destruction caused to the ships remains unclear as assessments continue. This offensive is in line with Ukraine’s strategic goals to impede Russian naval operations in the Black Sea, compelling Russia to reassess the deployment of its fleet to crucial maritime zones. As a consequence of these attacks, the city of Sevastopol engaged in heightened missile defense activities. In light of these incidents, Russia is reevaluating its maritime strategies to counteract Ukrainian attacks, which includes the redistribution of its fleet elements and the fortification of ship defenses to counter Ukrainian sea drones. These targeted ships belong to the 197th Landing Ships Brigade, which is integral to the Black Sea Fleet’s exercises and training operations. These developments underscore Ukraine’s persistent endeavors to disrupt Russian military presence and operational effectiveness in the region, particularly in Crimea, which has been under Russian occupation since 2014. Ukrainian Naval Forces spokesperson revealed potential damage to Russian vessel Ivan Khurs during the March 23 attack on Crimea. Confirmation is pending. The Ivan Khurs plays a crucial role in Russian naval operations and was previously reported damaged in 2023. Assessments are ongoing for the Yamal and Azov ships, with strikes significantly impacting Russian logistics. Damage to the Yamal is severe, affecting annexation efforts. Ukraine claims successful strikes on Russian vessels and infrastructure amid intense assaults. Russian-appointed officials report casualties but deny warship damage. Since the invasion began, Ukraine has targeted approximately a third of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia

Ongoing skirmishes were reported along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, with key areas of conflict including northeast of Kupyansk, west and south of Kreminna, particularly near Terny, Yampolivka, and the Serebryanske forest, indicating sustained military engagement in these regions.

Russian troops have made gains around Bakhmut, moving closer to the northwest and southwest areas, with ongoing battles reported. Ukrainian forces, however, have successfully countered Russian attacks in several directions around Bakhmut, including northeast, northwest, west, and southwest of the city.

Russian forces are closing in on Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast but unlikely to quickly capture the area, facing stiff Ukrainian defenses. Despite recent advances, their progress has been limited, focusing on strategic objectives rather than immediate takeover. The area’s fortifications and Russian operational challenges suggest a prolonged engagement. The potential capture of Chasiv Yar holds strategic importance for Russia, aiming to secure the southwestern flank and facilitate further advances, yet significant hurdles remain for a successful encirclement or seizure.

Russian troops made slight gains near Avdiivka, particularly west of the town, as confirmed by recent footage. Despite Russian claims of further advancements, Ukrainian forces still hold positions in key areas around Avdiivka, including its western outskirts. Fighting continues in the vicinity, with reports of decreased intensity in Russian assaults but an increase in reconnaissance drone usage by Russian forces, indicating ongoing strategic maneuvers and surveillance in the region.

Russian forces made small advances southwest of Donetsk City, with ongoing conflicts reported both west and southwest of the city on March 24. The skirmishes were concentrated around key locations including Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, Pobieda, and Kostyantynivka.

Fighting persisted in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area without any confirmed shifts in the frontline. While Russian sources claimed advances near Staromayorske, these reports lack corroborative visual evidence. Ukrainian forces successfully countered a Russian assault near Urozhaine, indicating ongoing defensive actions in the region.

Ongoing conflicts in western Zaporizhia Oblast showed no changes to the frontline, with engagements reported near Robotyne and Verbove. Despite claims by Russian sources of advancements near Verbove, there’s no visual proof to support these assertions. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command noted a 40% increase in drone usage by Russian forces in the region, indicating a rise in surveillance activities.

Ukrainian officials reported that a Russian infantry attack near Krynky in the eastern part of Kherson Oblast was unsuccessful, indicating ongoing military engagement in the region without a change in control.

Ukrainian Victims Of War

In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the injuries of three people:

• Russian shelling and an airstrike in Krasnohorivka, Donetsk Oblast, injured three civilians, with attacks occurring in a residential area. The injured, two women and a 70-year-old man, are receiving treatment for shrapnel wounds at a local medical facility.

Ukraine News

Russian forces targeted Ukrainian energy and infrastructure with drone and missile attacks, focusing on the south and west of Ukraine. Utilizing strategic aircraft and drones, they launched a substantial number of missiles, with Ukrainian air defenses intercepting many. The attacks aimed at port and energy facilities, causing damage to critical infrastructure, including a gas storage site in Lviv and residential areas in Donetsk. Additionally, a Russian missile briefly entered Polish airspace, highlighting the wider regional implications of these strikes.

In a recent wave of attacks, Russia targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing damage to multiple facilities in the west, as confirmed by Naftogaz’s CEO. The strikes, which included cruise missiles and Shahed drones, also affected heating systems, with Lviv Oblast experiencing direct hits on critical sites. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted many, but not all, of the attacks. The fallout included power outages in Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, with ongoing assessments of the damage. Despite these assaults, including a significant one on March 22 that damaged Ukraine’s largest hydroelectric station, the disruptions have been less severe compared to the widespread blackouts of the previous winter.

Polish farmers protesting against EU imports of cheap Ukrainian food have caused a significant blockade at border checkpoints with Ukraine, halting truck movement and causing a backlog of 500 vehicles. They claim these imports create unfair competition. As a result, very few trucks are being allowed through, with negotiations between Kyiv and Warsaw underway to resolve the issue. The farmers’ protests, which began in February, are also in response to the EU’s Green Deal policies, demanding higher subsidies and a delay in its implementation. The Polish Agriculture Minister is optimistic about reaching an agreement soon.

Ukraine’s Allies

Representative Michael McCaul, leader of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, expects a Ukraine aid bill to be introduced after Easter, despite potential risks to Speaker Mike Johnson’s leadership position. The Senate has already passed a $95 billion package, including $60 billion for Ukraine, but it faces challenges in the House. Speaker Johnson, having faced a motion that could remove him from his position due to relying on Democratic votes for a previous funding deal, is navigating a complex political landscape. President Biden has emphasized the importance of supporting Ukraine, and during a visit to Kyiv, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan assured that the U.S. would deliver the promised aid despite the legislative deadlock.

Russia News

The Islamic State released footage of the March 22 terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall in Moscow, where at least 137 were killed and 140 injured. The video shows gunmen attacking people and is confirmed by U.S. intelligence. Russian authorities have detained 11 individuals, but efforts to connect the attack to Ukraine are unsupported by evidence. The U.S. Embassy had warned of possible extremist attacks in Moscow weeks prior. Ukrainian intelligence suggests the attack may have been a Russian provocation to escalate actions against Ukraine.

After the Crocus City Hall attack, Russian officials are proposing stricter immigration controls, including a “zero tolerance” policy for migrant offenses, enhanced digital monitoring, and a shift towards industrial automation to reduce migrant labor. Additionally, the attack has led to the detention of four Tajik suspects, heightening anti-migrant feelings. Despite these actions, Tajikistan has not been officially informed about the involvement of its citizens. These measures and the existing nationalistic rhetoric promoting Russian Orthodoxy may further distance migrant communities and contribute to the recruitment efforts of extremist groups. This tension is set against a backdrop of increasing ultranationalism and xenophobia within Russia.

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov voiced concerns over the rise of Russian ultranationalism following the Crocus City Hall attack, suggesting the incident has broader implications than the attack itself, aimed at stirring nationalism to destabilize Russia. He criticized “false patriots” for promoting division in a traditionally multiethnic and multiconfessional Russia and warned against fostering ethnic conflicts. Kadyrov’s stance highlights the tension between promoting Chechnya’s Islamic values and navigating the Kremlin’s ultranationalist tendencies.

A photo circulating online shows a suspect in the March 22 Moscow concert hall attack lying on the floor with his pants down next to an electrocution device called “Tapik.” The device is commonly used for torture, generating up to 80 volts of electricity. The suspect’s position suggests the wires may have been connected to his genitals. Russian forces have used this device in Ukraine against civilians. A video has also surfaced showing Russian police cutting off another suspect’s ear and forcing him to eat it. The suspect claims he was offered money to carry out the attack. The suspects appeared in court with signs of beating and torture.

Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base

Russian President Vladimir Putin enacted a law on March 23 to incorporate members of the All-Russian Cossack Society into the military’s mobilization reserve. This move is part of broader efforts to formalize and integrate various forces into Russia’s military structure. The law facilitates Cossack members already in military or security service reserves to align with the mobilization reserve, under agreements specifying service terms and personnel numbers. This follows a 2023 initiative to formalize Cossack forces within the Ministry of Defense operations.

Russia’s Allies

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto emphasized the urgency of ending the war between Russia and Ukraine to avert the threat of a third world war. He stated on public radio that Hungary remains against supplying additional weapons to Ukraine, believing it risks escalating the conflict. Szijjarto also expressed concern over the European Council President’s call for a shift to a war economy. Furthermore, Szijjarto mentioned plans for discussions with former U.S. President Donald Trump about peace in Ukraine, underlining the inevitability of ending the conflict through negotiations.

Russian Narrative and Propaganda

Maria Zakharova, a spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, accused Ukraine and Western countries of involvement in the Crocus City Hall attack, despite lacking evidence. She stated that Russia views any denial from Washington regarding Ukraine’s involvement as potential proof of their support for the attack, awaiting the results of Russia’s investigation. Contrarily, US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby asserted there’s no evidence linking Ukraine to the incident.

Source Materials

Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com