Summary of the day: On March 22, an Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) attack targeted Moscow’s Crocus City Hall, exposing significant lapses in Russian intelligence and law enforcement without necessitating broader conspiracy theories. Despite evidence pointing to IS-K’s involvement, Russian officials persist in inaccurately blaming Ukraine, potentially jeopardizing Russia’s internal security and the safety of its citizens. Meanwhile, changes within the Russian military structure are underway, with the Western Military District being disbanded in favor of reviving the Leningrad and Moscow Military Districts. Concurrently, Ukraine reported a successful strike against Russian Black Sea Fleet ships in Crimea, causing substantial damage, while Russian forces have made recent advancements near Avdiivka, continuing the tension in the region.
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Russian Plans of Conquest Beyond Ukraine
European countries are enhancing their defense industrial bases, with France’s Nexter planning to boost artillery shell production eightfold in three years. Nexter, a government-owned arms producer, is among the French companies partnering with Ukraine. Additionally, Romania is set to host a new Rheinmetall gunpowder plant, a €400 million project backed by the European Commission, announced by Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu.
Russia’s ambassador to Poland, Sergei Andreyev, refused Poland’s summons regarding a missile breaching Polish airspace on March 24, citing insufficient evidence, according to RIA Novosti. Poland scrambled fighter jets during Russia’s attack on Ukraine when a missile entered its airspace for 39 seconds. The Polish Operational Command accused Russia of deliberately targeting Ukraine from the west. The Polish Foreign Ministry plans to demand an explanation from Moscow. This incident follows previous missile breaches into Polish airspace during Russian attacks on Ukraine.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported 640 casualties among Russian forces in the past day.
Ukrainian officials have reported a highly effective strike on Sevastopol, Crimea, which significantly targeted the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF). The offensive resulted in extensive damage to the BSF ship repair plant and the Yamal Ropucha-class landing ship, which now requires continuous water pumping to avert sinking. Additionally, the attack caused notable damage to the BSF communications center, thereby disrupting operations, while the condition of the Ivan Khurs reconnaissance ship following the strike remains under evaluation. Ukraine’s use of Maritime Autonomous Guard Unmanned Robotic Apparatus (Magura) V5 naval drones has demonstrated their enhanced power and precision. These strikes are strategically aimed at reducing the combat capabilities of the BSF and curbing Russian naval presence in the Black Sea. Military intelligence from Ukraine confirms that the “Yamal” suffered critical damage from the assault and is currently tilting because of a puncture in the deck.
Russia has ceased using the Crimean Bridge, vital for military supplies, after Ukrainian strikes. This key link, constructed post-Crimea’s 2014 annexation, saw significant damage in 2022 and 2023. Traffic has dwindled from dozens of daily military trains to just a handful for civilian use. While repairs might lead to renewed military use, Maliuk hinted at potential future Ukrainian actions against the bridge.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Positional battles persisted along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without any shifts in frontlines. Clashes were reported in several areas, including near Synkivka northeast of Kupyansk, around Terny and Yampolivka west of Kreminna, and in the Serebryanske forest and near Bilohorivka southwest and south of Kreminna, respectively. Ukrainian forces noted that Russian attacks near the Serebryanske forest involved groups of up to 30 soldiers and a few armored vehicles, marking no significant mechanized assaults in the area since late December 2023.
Russian forces made slight advances near Bakhmut and Siversk, particularly along the Rozdolivka-Vesele line, pushing Ukrainian forces to the Sukha Plotva River’s northern bank. However, there’s no visual evidence to confirm these advances. Positional fighting is ongoing north of Vesele.
Russian forces have reportedly made advances around Chasiv Yar, with particular gains near the railway northeast of Kanal and close to the Stupky-Holubovske 2 nature reserve southeast of Chasiv Yar. Fighting continues on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar, with Russian forces actively engaged east of the town. Additionally, they are said to control half of Bohdanivka, northwest of Bakhmut, with continued positional battles in the surrounding areas.
Russian forces made advances west of Avdiivka, with recent movements into western Orlivka and west of Tonenke. They are also attacking toward Semenivka from Orlivka and between Orlivka and Berdychi. Continued fighting is reported near Berdychi, west of Avdiivka near Tonenke and Umanske, and southwest near Nevelske and Pervomaiske.
Positional battles persisted west and southwest of Donetsk City without any changes to the frontline. Clashes occurred near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka to the west, and Pobieda and Novomykhailivka to the southwest.
There were no shifts in the frontline despite ongoing positional clashes in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area, specifically south of Velyka Novosilka near Urozhaine and Staromayorske. Russian forces have been active in the area, with strikes near Malynivka.
Russian forces were reported to have made progress in western Zaporizhia Oblast, though no frontline changes were confirmed. Claims of advancement northwest of Verbove, east of Robotyne, lack visual proof. Fighting persisted near Robotyne and northwest of Verbove.
Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack in east Kherson Oblast.
Ukrainian Victims Of War
The attack targeted residential buildings, resulting in multiple casualties and injuries, including over 10 children.
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of two people and injuries of 21 others:
- Kyiv faced a missile attack, with correspondents reporting multiple explosions following air raid sirens. Missiles, launched from Crimea, were intercepted, but debris damaged buildings including the Kyiv State Academy of Decorative and Applied Arts. Authorities reported damage in several districts and 10 people were affected in Pechersk, with two hospitalized.
- Russian forces attacked Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast, resulting in the death of a civilian, a 65-year-old man.
- The death toll from Russia’s March 12 missile attack on Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast has risen to six, with a 59-year-old man succumbing to his injuries in the hospital. Seven others injured in the attack remain hospitalized, three of whom are in serious condition.
- A Russian drone attack overnight in southern Ukraine injured 11 people and caused power outages in parts of Odesa, according to Ukrainian authorities on March 25. The attack targeted Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts, with drones launched from the Black Sea. Debris from an intercepted drone caused a fire in Mykolaiv, injuring 11 people, two of whom were hospitalized. Additionally, energy infrastructure was damaged in both regions, although there were no casualties reported in Odesa.
Aftermath of Russian Attack on Kyiv
Ukraine News
Russian forces carried out a series of drone and missile attacks across southern Ukraine and the capital city of Kyiv. Overnight, nine Shahed drones took off from Crimea, with eight being intercepted by Ukrainian air defenses over Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts, although one managed to strike an energy facility in Mykolaiv Oblast. An accompanying attempt to disrupt Ukrainian air defenses using a Kh-31P missile failed to succeed. Then later in the morning, on what is Ukraine’s Day of the Security Service, two ballistic missiles—suspected to be “hypersonic” and possibly of the Zircon variety—were directed toward Kyiv, specifically targeting the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) offices. Ukrainian forces successfully shot down both missiles. However, the debris from these interceptions fell onto central Kyiv, causing widespread alarm, prompting urgent calls for residents to take cover, and leading to injuries in nine individuals, including a teenage girl, as well as inflicting substantial damage to buildings. President Zelensky has urged Western allies to supply more air defense systems to protect Ukrainian cities and save lives.
I found myself in the midst of these two missile attacks. The first missile flew directly over my location at 3:30 in the morning. I listened as it passed my apartment and then heard the subsequent explosion of its destruction by Ukrainian defenses. The falling debris caused damage to a nearby building. Later that morning after I had visited the US Embassy, I faced a more harrowing experience. Exiting the metro at the train station, air raid alarms blared, and almost immediately, three explosions sounded in quick succession from different directions. The blasts triggered widespread panic, with people scrambling for safety. Luckily, I was close to the train station’s underground entrance, where I quickly sought refuge. Four hours later, I was on a train heading back to the safety of Uzhhorod.
This is the building hit near me in Kyiv from falling debris
DTEK, Ukraine’s principal private energy provider, has reported a substantial loss of generating capacity, amounting to 50%, after a Russian assault on Ukraine’s energy structure on March 22. This incident notably affected the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant, Ukraine’s largest, which sustained serious damage leaving significant portions in critical condition, though there was no immediate risk of the dam itself breaching. Recovery operations for the facility are anticipated to extend over months, and while the comprehensive extent of the destruction is still under assessment, further Russian offensives have perpetuated the disruption, with drone strikes causing power outages in Odesa. Concurrently, Ukrhydroenergo’s chief, Ihor Syrota, has indicated that the Zaporizhzhia Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant’s restoration could span several years. The critical energy infrastructure, compromised in the sizable March 22 bombardment, is presently inoperative, with sections severely impaired. The task of debris removal and subsequent repairs of the power station is projected to be an extensive and costly endeavor.
In response to severe damage to the power system from recent Russian strikes, Kharkiv will end its central heating season early to ease the strain. The attacks, which hit a thermal plant and electrical substations, left 1.5 million Ukrainians, including 700,000 Kharkiv residents, without power. Despite partial repairs by municipal workers and energy technicians, power shortages persist.
Poland’s Economic Development Minister announced progress in talks to establish a licensing system for trading Ukrainian goods, expected to conclude soon. Negotiations focus on cereals, rapeseed, corn, sugar, poultry, eggs, and fruits. Polish farmers initiated border blockades in February, demanding increased subsidies and delaying environmental policies. The Green Deal demands were met, and subsidies for grain sales are planned due to surplus. Transit of grains, especially corn and wheat, is expected to end by April 1. Tensions over Ukrainian imports strained relations between Ukraine and Poland, prompting Warsaw to ban some agricultural imports last year.
Ukraine’s Allies
The EU has delivered 500,000 of the pledged 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine and plans to fulfill the remainder by year-end, as stated by EU diplomat Josep Borrell. In addition to donations, commercial contracts with the European defense industry will provide 400,000 shells. The Czech Republic’s initiative aims to purchase 800,000 shells globally, securing 300,000 already, with over 20 countries offering support. Despite these efforts, Borrell stresses the need for increased production capacity and financial resources, noting the EU’s defense budget of 290 billion euros for 2023 falls short of NATO’s 2% benchmark.
Finland and Canada are contributing financially to a Czech-led initiative aimed at providing Ukraine with artillery ammunition, with Finland donating €30 million and Canada over 40 million CAD. The initiative has already sourced over 300,000 shells, expecting the first delivery by June 2024. Additionally, support for Ukraine’s drone, anti-drone, aviation, and air defense capabilities is increasing. Australia, Lithuania, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, and the UK have all announced significant contributions, including drones, anti-drone systems, Mi-24/25 helicopters, F-16 ammunition, and advanced surveillance drones, amounting to hundreds of millions in support.
Iceland commits two million euros for ammunition purchases for Ukraine under the Czech-led initiative. This follows Czech President’s call for European support at the Munich Security Conference. Iceland also allocates 500,000 euros for equipment for Ukrainian servicewomen. Fifteen European countries, including France and the Netherlands, support the initiative. The ammunition is expected to be delivered next month to address Ukraine’s severe shortage amid ongoing Russian aggression.
During the Danish-Ukrainian Defense Industry Conference from March 23–25, Denmark confirmed its ongoing support for Ukraine. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov emphasized the significance of Danish-Ukrainian collaboration in technology and defense production. Additionally, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense signed a memorandum of understanding with Denmark’s Defense Procurement and Logistics Organization to enhance cooperation further.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine is focusing on enhancing its defense capabilities by boosting its domestic defense industry, especially in technology and production. A top priority is advancing unmanned systems, with Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi leading efforts and Colonel Vadym Sukharevskyi overseeing drone development for military use. Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s Digital Transformation Minister, revealed that Ukraine now makes 90% of its required drone components locally, including those for long-range and naval drones.
Russia News
A fire broke out at the Novocherkassk thermal power plant in Russia’s Rostov Oblast, resulting in no casualties and leading to the temporary shutdown of two power units and the disconnection of high-voltage lines. The incident, which caused temporary power disruptions, is under investigation but may be linked to intercepted Ukrainian drones as air defenses reported shooting down 11 such drones amid claims of a drone strike. The regional governor acknowledged the incident after reports of explosions and a purported drone attack, and although power was restored swiftly following the fire, Ukrainian officials have not issued any statements on the matter. This event occurs in the context of ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, a strategy that has reportedly affected 10% of Russia’s refinery capacity and is considered by Ukraine to be a legitimate military tactic, contrary to reports of U.S. apprehensions which Ukraine refutes.
After a drone strike on the night of March 23, the Kuibyshev oil refinery in Russia’s Samara Oblast shut down one of its main processing units, reducing its capacity by half. Despite reports of explosions, the regional governor reported only a fire with no casualties. Ukraine’s military intelligence did not confirm involvement but acknowledged an “incident” at the facility.
Russian President Vladimir Putin alleged that radical Islamists were behind the terrorist attack at a Moscow concert hall on March 22. Despite Islamic State’s claim of responsibility, Putin unfoundedly implicated Ukraine, suggesting the attackers aimed to flee there. He speculated on the attack’s purpose and questioned its beneficiaries. Meanwhile, a court in Moscow charged four Tajikistan citizens with terrorism. The incident exposed significant Russian intelligence failures, as warnings from the US about potential terrorist activities went unheeded. Putin’s wrongful blame of Ukraine and the US, despite evidence pointing solely to IS-K, raises concerns. Reports suggest Russian security’s delayed response highlights broader issues of readiness and response to terrorist threats.
Lieutenant General Esedulla Abachev was appointed Deputy Commander of the newly recreated Leningrad Military District (LMD), as part of Russia’s military reorganization which includes disbanding the Western Military District (WMD) and re-establishing the LMD and Moscow Military District (MMD). This move was confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense, which also highlighted Abachev’s role in awarding personnel for arresting the Crocus City Hall attackers. The involvement of LMD personnel in Bryansk Oblast, an area now under the MMD, points to ongoing transitions and possible confusion within the military restructuring process.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The KB BARS Design Bureau and Margelov Ryazan Airborne Command School have developed the “BARS-30” electronic sighting system for the AGS-17 automatic grenade launcher, now delivered to Russian forces in Ukraine. This system enhances aiming accuracy and fire adjustment under any weather conditions, both day and night.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Kremlin officials and Russian ultranationalists are persistently blaming Ukraine for an attack likely carried out by IS-K, jeopardizing Russia’s internal security and the safety of civilians. Despite evidence to the contrary, they claim that IS-K, deemed weakened, could not have executed such a significant attack, suggesting instead Ukrainian and Western involvement. This narrative, amplified by Russian media and officials, contradicts evidence that IS-K remains capable of significant terrorist acts. The insistence on framing Ukraine as the perpetrator supports the Kremlin’s broader narrative to justify its invasion of Ukraine, while ignoring the real threat IS-K poses within Russia. This approach risks internal security and civilian lives to maintain a narrative that diverts blame from IS-K to Ukraine.
The Kremlin continues to use discredited claims in its information campaigns against Ukraine, falsely accusing Ukraine of developing biological weapons in US- and NATO-funded labs. Russian Ambassador to the Hague, Vladimir Tarabin, repeated these unfounded allegations, alongside accusations of Ukrainian forces using toxic chemicals and phosphorus ammunition, which, while not banned in warfare, are prohibited against civilians. These narratives, aimed at discrediting Western support for Ukraine, have been widely debunked by Western media, officials, and international bodies. Conversely, evidence has surfaced of Russian forces using banned chemical agents in Ukraine, contradicting Russia’s own commitments under the Chemical Weapons Convention.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com