Summary of the day: The Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP) has directed its clergy to include pro-war prayers in support of Russia’s war against Ukraine, intensifying internal scrutiny and defrocking those who refuse. Meanwhile, Russia escalated its military operations with missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and attempted a mechanized assault near Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast. In response to the ongoing conflict, France announced it will provide military aid to Ukraine, including surface-to-air missiles and armored vehicles, as Russia proceeds with its spring military conscription and continues to assert its influence in post-Soviet states and within its borders through various military and legal maneuvers.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War III
Russia aims to enforce its federal laws on officials from NATO and post-Soviet states for actions taken within their own territories, a move that defies international law. Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov acknowledged the challenges of such prosecutions as “unrealistic” but confirmed the continuation of these efforts. This stance, which includes placing NATO officials on Russia’s wanted list, challenges the sovereignty of these nations and may be part of Russia’s strategy to justify future escalations against NATO states.
A joint investigation implicates Russia’s military intelligence agency, GRU Unit 29155, in Havana Syndrome attacks on U.S. personnel abroad using directed energy weapons. Originating in 2017 in Cuba, over 100 cases have since been reported globally, affecting diplomats, spies, and their families. The attacks, dating back to 2014 in Germany, result in severe and sometimes permanent health issues, from headaches to traumatic brain injuries. Evidence links GRU operatives to these incidents, revealing their focus on disrupting U.S. intelligence efforts, particularly in regions like Georgia, Ukraine, and Russia. Despite a U.S. intelligence report downplaying foreign involvement, victims feel betrayed, pointing to a potential cover-up. The 2021 Havana Act offers compensation, but questions remain about the U.S. government’s response and the potential strategic gains for Russia.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian forces intercepted a Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group near Stara Huta, Sumy Oblast. Meanwhile, Russian military conducted 39 separate attacks across the region, targeting 11 communities. These attacks involved artillery, mortars, grenade launchers, drones, and missiles, causing the most significant shelling in Seredyna-Buda. Despite frequent assaults, leading to the displacement of residents, there have been no casualties or reported damage to the local infrastructure.
Pope Francis, during his Easter sermon, urged Russia and Ukraine to engage in a full prisoner exchange, embracing an “all for all” approach. Ukrainian authorities have previously reported holding at least 3,500 Ukrainian POWs by Russia, with some prisoner swaps already occurring, including a recent exchange of 100 POWs by each side. A U.N. report highlighted the systematic torture of Ukrainian POWs by Russia, with detailed accounts of harsh conditions and abuse at facilities like Olenivka prison. Easter celebrations in Ukraine vary, with some denominations observing it on March 31 and Orthodox Christians celebrating on May 5 this year.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces made progress east of Terny, west of Kreminna, as part of ongoing battles along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. This advancement is amidst continued clashes in areas including northeast of Kupyansk, west of Kreminna, and south of Kreminna.
Despite ongoing skirmishes around Bakhmut, there were no significant changes in frontlines. Reports from a Russian milblogger about advancements near Bohdanivka, northwest of Bakhmut, remain unverified. Battles also occurred west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske and Chasiv Yar, and southwest near Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Pivdenne. Russian forces are reportedly focusing attacks towards Chasiv Yar, a strategically elevated position.
Ukrainian forces repelled a significant Russian assault near Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, marking the first large-scale mechanized attack since October 2023. The assault involved 36 tanks and 12 infantry fighting vehicles from the Russian 6th Tank Regiment. Despite the scale of the attack, Ukrainian forces successfully destroyed 12 tanks and 8 fighting vehicles, preventing Russian breakthroughs. This engagement highlights Ukraine’s defensive capabilities amid ongoing challenges such as ammunition shortages and manpower limitations. It also indicates a potential focus by Russian forces on the Avdiivka area, suggesting that future large-scale Russian offensives may concentrate in this region. Despite the pressures, Ukraine’s effective defense against such a significant assault underlines its ability to achieve substantial battlefield outcomes with adequate equipment.
Russian forces made slight advances near Avdiivka, particularly northwest of Tonenke, despite Ukrainian forces repelling a mechanized assault. Claims of Russian progress near Berdychi, Nevelske, and Pervomaiske, all surrounding Avdiivka, have been made but involve continued heavy fighting in these areas.
Russian forces made slight advances southwest of Donetsk City, with specific progress reported near Novomykhailivka. Mixed reports exist about movements near Heorhiivka, west of Donetsk City, with some milbloggers noting advancements and others citing unclear conditions. Battles are ongoing in areas west and southwest of Donetsk City, including Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka.
Despite ongoing skirmishes in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, notably near Velyka Novosilka, Vodyane, Staromayorske, and Pryyutne, the frontlines remained unchanged.
In western Zaporizhia Oblast, ongoing battles near Robotyne and Verbove did not alter frontlines. Russia increased its use of reconnaissance drones to over 200 daily, taking advantage of changing weather for better aerial surveillance in southern Ukraine. Russian forces are also adjusting their tactics by limiting armored vehicle use near Robotyne.
Russian forces made unsuccessful attacks near Krynky in east Kherson Oblast, engaging in up to three light infantry assaults daily without armored support. The Russian Dnepr Grouping, active in Zaporizhia and Kherson, is moving forces from Crimea using complex logistics to avoid Ukrainian interdiction but struggles to launch successful assaults. A Russian serviceman highlighted a current lull in activity, with both sides primarily using drones. Ukrainian forces reportedly have an edge in electronic warfare and coordination between drones and artillery, enhancing their effectiveness in the region.
Ukrainian Victims Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of 2 people and the injuries to at least 12 others:
- Russian artillery fire wounded five people in Donetsk Oblast, with victims ranging from a 16-year-old boy to an 82-year-old woman. Residential and agricultural structures in Krasnohorivka, Kurakhovo, and Novoselydivka were damaged. The injured have been hospitalized for treatment.
- In Kherson Oblast, a Russian missile strike injured two individuals, who were then hospitalized. The attack occurred in the Beryslav district, causing an explosion from a C-300 missile, which led to damage to homes and power lines.
- In Lviv Oblast, first responders found a second victim after a Russian missile hit an administrative building, causing destruction and fire. The search and rescue efforts are ongoing.
- A missile strike by Russian forces in the Zmiiv district of Kharkiv Oblast wounded at least five people.
The aftermath of Russian shelling in Donetsk Oblast
Ukraine News
Over March 30-31, Russian military actions intensified with missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities, causing significant damage and at least one death. The Ukrainian Air Force downed nine cruise missiles and drones from an assault comprising 11 Shahed drones and 14 cruise missiles. Concurrently, Kharkiv’s Shevchenkivskyi district suffered damage from an airstrike using guided bombs, affecting civilian buildings and vehicles, though no casualties were reported from this specific incident. Elsewhere, Lviv witnessed infrastructure collapse, trapping residents, and Odesa experienced blackouts due to a fire sparked by drone debris. Kherson’s agricultural areas and Rivne’s electrical infrastructure were also targeted without immediate reports of casualties. Amidst these strikes, emergency power cuts were implemented in Odesa, and an anomalous event occurred as Russian forces inadvertently destroyed one of their missiles over Saratov Oblast. In response to the threat, Poland scrambled jets to protect its airspace. These episodes reveal the persistent danger to Ukrainian infrastructure and the challenges faced by its air defense systems, amid delayed U.S. security assistance.
Ukraine’s intelligence head, Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, predicts that Russian forces will soon resume using Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea Fleet, having stockpiled them while predominantly deploying Kh-101 air-launched cruise missiles recently. Despite Kalibr missiles being less effective than Kh-101s, their increased use is anticipated due to dwindling Kh-101 stocks. Russian missile strikes have mainly involved Tu-95 strategic bombers, with Tu-22 bombers used less frequently due to technical issues. Russia has also modernized the Kh-22 missile, creating the Kh-32, and might adapt these missiles for use on other aircraft types. Furthermore, Budanov confirmed the ongoing use of thermobaric ODAB-1500 bombs in Ukraine, countering claims of their recent introduction.
On the second anniversary of Bucha’s liberation, Ukrainian President Zelensky and top officials commemorated the event, highlighting the massacre as a stark reminder of the war’s brutality. The ceremony, emphasizing the fight for dignity and justice, took place at the Memorial to the Defenders of the Bucha Community. Bucha became a symbol of Russian atrocities after mass graves and evidence of war crimes were discovered post-liberation. With over 1,400 civilians killed in Bucha District, including children, Ukraine continues to investigate and charge Russian soldiers for their crimes. The UN reports over 10,000 civilian deaths in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion, with actual numbers likely higher.
President Zelensky extended Easter greetings to Ukrainians observing the holiday according to the Gregorian calendar. He highlighted the holiday as a symbol of spiritual strength and unity amid adversity, particularly as Ukraine faces continued Russian missile and drone attacks, including overnight strikes on March 31. Zelensky’s message emphasized resilience and the hope for peace, offering encouragement to those defending their country and all affected by conflict. He called for unity and a peaceful Easter for everyone, especially those suffering from the impacts of war.
Ukraine’s Allies
France will send Ukraine an unspecified number of Aster 30 missiles, hundreds of armored vehicles, and other military equipment, announced by French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu. The delivery, including older but functional vehicles and equipment from the French military, is expected throughout 2024 and early 2025. Additionally, France plans to develop and supply remotely operated munitions to Ukraine by summer 2024.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Ukraine’s intelligence warns of a strategic challenge from a new Russian railway linking Rostov-on-Don with occupied Crimea through Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Despite risks to Kyiv, Ukraine’s military is focused on countering this move, viewing the railway as a crucial logistic route for Russian forces and a prime target for disruption. The construction aims to bolster connections compromised by attacks on the Crimean Bridge, which is not fully operational. Ukraine is determined to hinder the project’s completion.
Russia News
Since February 24, 2022, Ukrainian authorities report Russia has incurred 442,170 troop casualties, with 650 in the last day. Additionally, Russian military equipment losses include 6,966 tanks, 13,304 armored vehicles, 14,717 vehicles and fuel tanks, 11,050 artillery systems, 1,023 rocket launchers, 743 air defense systems, 347 aircraft, 325 helicopters, 8,731 drones, 26 naval vessels, and one submarine.
Russia demands Ukraine extradite SBU head, blaming him for a Moscow terrorist attack and other incidents without evidence. The attack, killing 139, was claimed by ISIS, not Ukraine, contradicting Russia’s accusation. Western intelligence and Ukraine deny Kyiv’s involvement, while the SBU admits to legally targeting other sites. Amidst mutual accusations, the situation highlights ongoing tensions and disputes over accountability and international law.
Russian defense systems reportedly intercepted a Ukrainian drone attack over Belgorod and Yaroslavl oblasts, according to Russian officials. On March 31, three drones were claimed to be destroyed over Yaroslavl, and 10 rockets over Belgorod. The incident in Belgorod reportedly injured one woman and caused damage to homes and utilities. Ukrainian authorities have not responded to these allegations, and the reports could not be independently verified. Such incidents highlight the ongoing tensions in regions bordering Ukraine, where cross-border attacks have increased.
Russia is reinforcing the defenses of its Novorossiysk port, anticipated as a preventive measure against Ukrainian attacks. This comes after relocating the Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol due to Ukrainian missile strikes. The U.K. Defense Ministry noted the positioning of barges to protect the port’s entrance and described Novorossiysk as crucial for safeguarding Russia’s naval assets, now beyond the reach of certain Ukrainian weapons. Nearly all significant Russian naval vessels have been moved from Crimea, save for the rocket carrier Cyclone. Following Ukraine’s effective strikes, a new commander, Admiral Sergei Pinchuk, has taken measures to protect the fleet, including narrowing port entrances.
Russian authorities detained three suspected terrorists in Dagestan during a counterterrorism operation in Makhachkala and Kaspiysk on March 31. The operation, declared by the Federal Security Service (FSB), aimed to preempt planned terrorist acts and strengthen regional security after the recent Crocus City Hall attack. Some reports suggest a connection between the detainees and the Crocus City Hall attackers. This move reflects either an increased concern over potential terrorist threats or an effort to demonstrate proactive security measures to the Russian public after previous security lapses.
Colonel General Alexander Lapin, previously the commander of the Central Military District, has been reportedly appointed as the commander of the newly established Leningrad Military District (LMD), according to the Ural regional information agency URA.ru, citing an unspecified military source. Although there’s no official confirmation yet, Lapin is known for commanding Russian forces during key operations in Ukraine, experiencing both criticism for losses and praise for defense efforts. URA.ru’s track record of accurate reporting on military appointments suggests the information might be reliable.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian President Vladimir Putin has authorized the spring military conscription of 150,000 men aged 18 to 30, starting from April 1 to July 15, 2024. This marks the first time men up to age 30 are eligible for conscription, following a law change that took effect on January 1, 2024. However, men who turned 27 before 2024 or are aged 28 to 29 are exempt. The conscription will include men in occupied Ukraine and most Russian regions, except some northern areas due to weather. Despite this, Russia states conscripts will not serve in occupied Ukraine or participate in combat in the Ukraine war, aiming to avoid internal discontent over conscript casualties.
Despite new legislation aimed at easing access to veteran statuses for volunteer and irregular forces in Ukraine, the Russian government still struggles with compensating these fighters adequately. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s decree on March 27 aimed to streamline the process for these individuals, facilitating quicker and simpler ways for them and their families to receive due compensations, particularly for those whose contracts were terminated or units disbanded. Yet, Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov admits there are ongoing issues with delayed payments for veterans involved in the Ukraine conflict.
Russia is training newly recruited personnel from occupied areas in Ukraine, such as Mariupol, to bolster its border regions with Ukraine, including Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts. This move comes in response to cross-border raids by pro-Ukrainian groups. Trainees are being prepared for sabotage and reconnaissance defense, urban assault operations, and protection of critical infrastructure. Additionally, Russia plans to move the 5th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade from Luhansk to Kursk to enhance border defense.
Russian forces have deployed a modified Kh-101 cruise missile with a double warhead, increasing its total weight to 800 kilograms from the standard 450 kilograms, at the cost of reduced flight range. This adaptation involves a smaller fuel tank, which shortens the missile’s reach from 5,500 kilometers to approximately 2,250 kilometers. This development was highlighted after Ukrainian forces intercepted one such missile and follows a January visit by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to the design bureau responsible for the upgrade, where the enhancement of a missile’s warhead was discussed.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
The Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP), under Kremlin control, has instructed its clergy to incorporate pro-war prayers into their services, supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine. Clergy who refuse to follow these instructions face threats of defrocking. The “Prayer for Holy Rus,” introduced in September 2022, embodies Kremlin narratives, seeking divine victory for Russia and promoting the idea of a unified Russian nation encompassing Ukrainians, Belarusians, and Russians, a concept that aligns with Putin’s views. The church’s leadership has increased scrutiny of its clergy, defrocking and punishing those who dissent or refuse to promote the Kremlin’s war stance. This move is part of a broader strategy to use the church as a tool for promoting Russian nationalism and justifying its aggressive actions in Ukraine.
A poll conducted by OpenMinds suggests over half of Russian respondents believe Ukraine was behind the Crocus City Hall attack on March 22, despite evidence pointing to the Islamic State (IS) as the perpetrator. The survey revealed 27% attribute the attack to IS, while 6% blame the West. Meanwhile, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs persists in accusing Ukraine of this and other “terrorist” acts, demanding extradition of those involved. The head of the Russian Federal Security Service has also vowed to punish those responsible, aligning with the narrative against Ukraine, despite assessments indicating IS’s involvement.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com