Summary of the day: In a significant development, a joint investigation by 60 Minutes, the Insider, and Der Spiegel has uncovered a decade-long campaign by the Kremlin targeting US government personnel worldwide, aiming to incapacitate them physically. Meanwhile, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service is reportedly attempting to shift the blame for the Crocus City Hall attack on March 22 to Ukraine, diverting attention from any Islamic State involvement. Amidst these geopolitical tensions, Russian forces have made notable advances near Avdiivka and the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast, as conflicts continue along the entire line of contact. Additionally, the Russian government is taking stringent measures against migrant communities following the Crocus City Hall attack, while the Ministry of Defense assures that new conscripts will not be deployed to most of occupied Ukraine nor engage in combat operations, coinciding with the beginning of the spring military conscription.
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War III
A joint investigation by 60 Minutes, the Insider, and Der Spiegel suggests that the Kremlin’s Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU) Unit 29155 has targeted US government personnel with directed energy or acoustic weapons for a decade, inducing Havana Syndrome. This affliction has led to severe health issues for affected US officials and their families, both domestically and internationally. These attacks appear to be aimed at incapacitating key US personnel involved in national security and counterintelligence against Russia, with significant incidents reported through 2023. The investigation’s findings, supported by intercepted documents, travel logs, and eyewitness accounts, connect Russian operatives to the attack locations and timings. Retired CIA officer Marc Polymeropolous has intimated that these instances could be the GRU’s retribution for perceived US actions, a view somewhat supported by the similar experiences of a Department of Defense official at the NATO summit in July 2023. Despite these patterns, the US intelligence community and the White House have not officially pointed the finger at any foreign power, including Russia. Confirmation of the GRU’s involvement would confirm a major Russian campaign targeting US military, diplomatic, and intelligence services, representing a significant and yet-to-be-addressed threat to US national security infrastructure.
Estonia’s Reform Party has proposed legislation to revoke local election voting rights from non-citizens, predominantly ethnic Russians, amid heightened tensions with Moscow following Russia’s war in Ukraine. Estonia, a significant military supporter of Ukraine, has around one-third of its population as ethnic Russians, including about 83,000 Russian citizens and 80,000 stateless individuals. The move is framed as a national security measure to mitigate Russian influence. Estonian officials, including Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, emphasize the need to prioritize Estonian language and pro-Estonian sentiments in governance.
Moldovan, Romanian, and American troops are conducting the JCET-2024 military exercises in Moldova from April 1 to 19, aimed at enhancing interoperability and sharing expertise among the forces. These drills come as Moldova seeks closer ties with the West amid tensions with Russia, which has occupied the Moldovan region of Transnistria and is accused by Chisinau of destabilization efforts. The exercises include parachute jumps and advanced combat training, involving Moldova’s Fulger Battalion and the State Protection and Guard Service. Moldova has been part of the U.S. JCET program since 2009. The exercises underscore Moldova’s security concerns, particularly with recent Russian military activities near its border and incidents of Russian military hardware entering Moldovan airspace.
During a press conference in Beijing, French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne urged China to clearly communicate with Russia regarding the war in Ukraine. This appeal followed discussions with Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, amid China’s strengthened ties and economic cooperation with Moscow. France, led by President Emmanuel Macron, has emerged as a vocal ally of Ukraine, supporting its 10-point peace plan demanding Russia’s troop withdrawal and accountability for war crimes. China, hinting at involvement in peace talks in Switzerland, faces calls from France to ensure peace aligns with international law, highlighting China’s potential pivotal role in upholding global norms.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian border guards, supported by National Guard and Army soldiers, repelled a Russian sabotage attempt in Sumy Oblast, which borders Russia. The skirmish occurred when the Russian group tried to infiltrate the region. Following a gunfight, the saboteurs withdrew.
Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces (SSO) reported destroying a Russian Zhitel electronic warfare complex in the Zaporizhzhia region, detected by drones, and targeted by artillery. The exact weaponry used wasn’t specified, and the video’s authenticity, showing the explosion, couldn’t be independently verified. The Zhitel complex, capable of jamming GPS and mobile signals, has been used by Russia since 2014. There’s no confirmation of crew casualties. This strike is part of Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to counter Russian electronic warfare, with several Zhitel units previously destroyed, including one hit by American HIMARS missiles earlier in March, as confirmed by the SSO.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
There was ongoing positional fighting near Kreminna, with no significant changes in territory on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Clashes were reported west and south of Kreminna. Ukrainian forces observed a pause in Russian attacks near Kupyansk since March 29 as Russian troops take time to regroup. However, there has been increased assault activity by Russian forces in the Lyman direction, with up to 16 assaults daily over the past week. Chechen special forces continue to be active near Bilohorivka.
Russian reports indicate their troops made progress west of Bakhmut, but this lacks visual confirmation. Reports suggest Russian forces moved towards Chasiv Yar through a nature reserve, nearing its eastern outskirts by 650 meters to 1 kilometer, though data only verifies Russian positions about 1.5 kilometers away. Recent footage shows a failed Russian armored vehicle assault near Ivanivske, with Russian losses of several vehicles reported. Ongoing battles continue around Bakhmut, specifically west near Ivanivske, northwest near Bohdanivka, and southwest near Andriivka and Klishchiivka.
Russian troops have made advances near Avdiivka, with Russian forces pushing into Vodyane’s western outskirts, aiming for further attacks towards Pervomaiske. Recent attempts also include advances west of Tonenke, where a significant Russian assault resulted in the loss of 12 tanks. Despite these movements, Russian forces face continued resistance in areas northwest, west, and southwest of Avdiivka. Russian military bloggers criticize the efforts as being hampered by commanders prioritizing career over troop safety.
The Institute for the Study of War suggests Russia may target western Donetsk Oblast in a potential offensive against Ukraine, focusing near the recently captured Avdiivka. A large-scale Russian assault involving tanks was reportedly repelled by Ukrainian forces, indicating the importance of the region. Despite recent escalations in Kharkiv and ongoing confrontations in Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the ISW posits Russia’s operational constraints might limit it to a single major offensive area at a time. President Zelensky notes stabilization on the battlefield but doesn’t dismiss the possibility of a major Russian offensive in late spring or summer.
Fighting persisted west and southwest of Donetsk City without shifts in the frontlines. Reports indicate that Russian forces are engaged in intense combat within Novomykhailivka, with battles also reported near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and southwest near Novomykhailivka and Pobieda
There were no changes to the frontlines in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area despite ongoing clashes. Fighting was reported east of Vodyane, near Velyka Novosilka, Urozhaine, and Staromayorske. Russian forces carried out a bomb strike on a bridge in Hulyaipole.
Russian forces were reported to have advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast, although no frontline changes were confirmed. Claims of progress west of Verbove were made but lack visual evidence. Ongoing clashes occurred near Robotyne and northwest of Verbove, with the “Viking” Spetsnaz Detachment active in the area.
Russian troops have made slight advances on Kherson Oblast’s east bank, specifically north of Kozachi Laheri, as evidenced by recent footage. Despite this, ongoing clashes persist near Krynky, with both Russian and Ukrainian forces engaging in the area.
Ukrainian Victims Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of 1 person and the injuries to 8 others:
- A Russian attack on Vovchansk in Ukraine’s Kharkiv Oblast at 1:20 p.m. local time injured a 27-year-old woman, who was hospitalized with shrapnel wounds. The assault targeted residential areas.
- In Kherson Oblast, a Russian attack resulted in one fatality and two injuries.
- Four people were wounded in Donetsk Oblast following at least nine attacks by Russian forces.
- A 54-year-old man was wounded in the Polohy district of Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to Russian attacks.
The aftermath of Russian attacks in Donetsk Oblast
Ukraine News
Ukraine intercepted two of three Shahed drones and a Kh-59 missile over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian forces also attacked Kharkiv with glide bombs, devastating the city’s energy infrastructure and causing significant damage. Meanwhile, Russian planes mistakenly dropped bombs on Belgorod Oblast on March 31, marking the sixteenth such incident in two weeks.
Ukrainian air defenses intercepted two Russian 3M22 Tsirkon hypersonic missiles over Kyiv on March 25, challenging Russia’s claims of their invincibility and refuting Russian propaganda that purported the destruction of key Ukrainian targets, with only falling debris reported as damage. Within the year’s first quarter, Kyiv was targeted with five such Zircon missiles, including the mentioned attack that wounded two. Overall, Ukrainian forces have shot down over 180 missiles and drones in 2024 alone, with a variety of threats including cruise and ballistic missiles and drones, while continuing to call for more Western air defense support. Despite Russia’s boast of the Zircon’s Mach 9 speed and extensive range, introduced in 2023, Ukraine has successfully downed more than 2,000 Russian missiles since the intensification of the conflict, indicating both the resilience of Ukrainian defense systems and the need for ongoing defensive aid.
Kharkiv’s critical energy infrastructure has been heavily damaged by Russian attacks, with Mayor Ihor Terekhov reporting the destruction of a thermal power plant and all electrical substations. The escalation in strikes on Ukraine’s second-largest city has led to a precarious energy situation, although the reasons for the increased aggression are not fully understood. Nonetheless, humanitarian efforts such as the “Points of Invincibility” remain operational around the clock, and despite significant damage to the Zmiiv thermal power plant, the mayor affirms the city’s resilience amidst ongoing civilian casualties and injuries. To address the extensive damage, Mayor Terekhov estimates that over $10 billion is required for reconstruction, prompting the search for international assistance due to the local budget’s limitations. Accusing Russia of targeting civilian structures and equating the assaults to genocide, Terekhov is focused on the city’s recovery. With the energy sector in a critical state and the city’s infrastructure in ruins, the continued humanitarian aid underlines the community’s determination to persevere and rebuild.
A kindergarten worker in Kharkiv has been accused by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) of aiding Russian missile strikes by providing target coordinates. Amidst recent escalations that have heavily damaged Kharkiv’s energy infrastructure, the SBU alleges the employee was passing information about Ukrainian military positions to Russian intelligence, having been recruited in autumn 2023 through a contact in Russia. Evidence presented by the SBU includes photos of the suspect’s messages with a Russian handler. The suspect was detained and faces life imprisonment if convicted.
The SBU has detained a Ukrainian businessman in Kyiv for allegedly supplying construction materials to Russia, which were used to build anti-tank defenses known as “dragon’s teeth.” The accused, who owned companies in Berdiansk, cooperated with Russian forces following their occupation and continued his operations under Russian law, including paying taxes to Russia. Documents supporting these claims were found during a search of his residence.
The Security Service of Ukraine has charged Russian state media head Margarita Simonyan in absentia with crimes including promoting genocide against Ukraine and spreading war propaganda. Simonyan, who leads RT, known for disseminating Russian propaganda, has been vocal on television about escalating the war, even to a nuclear level, and has made statements with genocidal intent, such as advocating for the murder of Ukrainian children. Although previously charged for violating Ukraine’s territorial integrity, her current residence in Russia under Putin’s regime makes her extradition to Ukraine highly improbable.
Ukraine is considering a ban on TikTok, taking cues from the United States, where lawmakers are pressing for the app’s Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to divest its U.S. operations. Ukrainian lawmaker Yaroslav Yurchyshyn stated that while the U.S. hasn’t yet banned TikTok, a U.S. decision could influence Ukraine’s actions, although he acknowledged the challenges in implementing such a ban. TikTok, used to spread disinformation, including pro-Russian narratives about the war in Ukraine, counts over 13 million users in Ukraine as of early 2023.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
A survey by Ukraine’s Institute of Social and Political Psychology indicates a majority of Ukrainians understand why some may avoid military mobilization, with 53.9% acknowledging the fear of death as a valid concern. While 43% feel ashamed of those who evade service, understanding is particularly high in the south, where the front line is, with 70.9% showing empathy. Amid discussions to lower the enlistment age and introduce military training for adults, the need for additional conscripts, initially estimated by President Zelensky at up to 500,000, has been reportedly reduced, according to Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. The poll interviewed 2,000 adults across Ukraine, except in Russian-occupied areas, from March 1-15.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine convened a three-hour strategy meeting with top military and government officials to discuss enhancing drone production and electronic warfare capabilities. The meeting aimed to refine production plans for various types of drones and adapt the defense industry to the evolving needs of the front lines. Outcomes included streamlining procurement, increasing drone munitions production, and operator training. Additionally, a new control system for electronic warfare to defend against Russian drones is being tested. High-level participants included the Prime Minister, Defense Minister, and military leaders. This follows a decree to form a dedicated drone branch in the armed forces and plans to start drone operation programs in vocational schools.
Ukraine is producing attack drones with a range exceeding 1,000 kilometers, according to Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. Kyiv aims to produce 1 million drones in 2024, as they are pivotal in warfare. These drones have been used in recent attacks on Russian oil refineries, disrupting diesel exports. Fedorov mentioned the potential of AI-equipped drones by the end of 2024 and highlighted the crucial role of drones in the war’s outcome. President Zelensky has initiated a new military branch focused on drone development, aiming to surpass Russia in drone production.
Ukraine’s Allies
Ukraine is receiving continued military and financial support from its European and Asian partners, who are also boosting their defense production capabilities. Germany has unveiled a new aid package that includes tank ammunition and drones for Ukraine. Belgium is allocating 100 million euros for the support of Ukraine’s future F-16 fleet. The EU has granted over 130 million euros to Rheinmetall for increased ammunition production. Japan has contributed $118 million towards Ukraine’s healthcare and infrastructure recovery and relaxed its defense equipment export rules to facilitate the future export of jointly developed fighter jets, though not to conflict zones. This move follows Japan’s previous policy adjustment to aid US Patriot missile supplies to Ukraine.
European nations are actively supporting Ukraine by securing crucial artillery ammunition. A Czech-led initiative has arranged contracts for one million artillery shells, valued at approximately 1.8 billion euros, set to reach Ukraine by April 2024. Poland has pledged to double its support for this effort, with shipments already underway. Germany is contributing 10,000 shells from its stockpile and has committed to purchasing 180,000 more for Ukraine by the second half of 2024, plus an additional 100,000 shells through a bilateral agreement with another country by the end of 2024. Iceland has also joined the initiative, aiming to bolster artillery supplies for Ukraine.
The US is ramping up its production of artillery shells to aid Ukraine, discussing with Turkey the purchase of Turkish explosives to enhance this effort. General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems is set to establish three production lines in Texas for 155mm shell components, with some operations beginning by June 2024. The US Army plans to double its monthly output of these shells from 28,000 to about 60,000 by October 2024, contingent on passing a supplemental appropriations bill. This increase partly relies on the domestic production of explosives, where Turkish imports are expected to play a crucial role.
The U.S., through USAID, has provided Ukraine with 109 generators, 19 heat and power cogeneration units, and 13 emergency vehicles to support the country’s energy infrastructure amid Russian attacks. This assistance, highlighted by U.S. Ambassador Bridget Brink, targets several Ukrainian cities including Dnipro and Lviv. The aid arrives amidst concerns of USAID activity disruptions due to U.S. congressional delays in passing a foreign aid bill, and as Ukraine faces significant challenges from Russian strikes on its power grid, notably affecting DTEK’s capacity and the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant, leading to widespread power outages.
House Speaker Mike Johnson announced that the U.S. Congress will vote on aid for Ukraine post-Easter, addressing the delays caused by congressional infighting since fall 2023. Despite bipartisan support in the Senate for a $95 billion aid package, the bill has been stalled in the Republican-led House. Amidst internal party pressures and a motion by Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene to remove him, Johnson aims for a bipartisan consensus to pass the bill, which includes unspecified “innovations.” This development follows a call between Johnson and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, signaling progress towards the aid’s approval. However, potential challenges to Johnson’s leadership highlight ongoing divisions within the Republican Party regarding Ukraine aid.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin named Vladislav Isaev as the new General Director of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast, currently under Russian occupation since March 2022. The International Atomic Energy Agency has consistently urged Russia to withdraw its forces and return control of the plant to Ukraine.
An explosion from a car bomb in the city of Starobilsk, Luhansk Oblast, killed Valeriy Chaika, an official appointed by Moscow. The incident, confirmed by the head of the local occupational administration, is being investigated by Russia’s Investigative Committee as a terrorist act. Attacks on Russian officials and collaborators have occurred frequently in occupied Ukrainian territories and within Russia itself, with Kyiv generally not commenting on such incidents. Past incidents include car bombings targeting Russian proxy officials in Mariupol and Luhansk, as well as a member of Russia’s ruling party in Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast. The SBU has not commented on allegations of Ukrainian involvement in these assassinations.
Russia News
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported that Russian forces experienced 710 casualties in the past day.
In the Belgorod region’s village of Dunaika, a woman was killed by air strikes attributed to Ukraine, leading to the evacuation of around 5,000 children from the area, according to Russian officials. The regional governor reported the casualty and evacuation efforts on social media, noting the ongoing Ukrainian strikes on border villages. Over the weekend, 1,300 children were moved from affected villages to safer locations, including cities like St. Petersburg and Bryansk, with plans for further relocations underway.
A fire erupted at the Uralmashzavod heavy machine factory in Yekaterinburg, Russia. The factory, which manufactures equipment for various industries and has been used for military production, experienced a fire on its roof, spreading over 4,500 square meters. Emergency services responded, and no casualties were reported. The cause of the fire is unknown, and Uralmashzavod stated the affected workshop was not part of its core facilities. This incident follows other recent fires at a tank command school in Tatarstan and a heating station in Shagonar.
The Federal Security Service of Russia (FSB) has arrested four individuals in Dagestan over alleged connections to a terrorist attack near Moscow, as reported by state-run media. These suspects were purportedly planning another attack in Kaspiysk, Dagestan. The arrests are linked to a March 22 incident where gunmen killed at least 144 people at Crocus City Hall, Krasnogorsk, which ISIS claimed responsibility for. Initially, 11 people were detained, and four Tajik nationals were charged with terrorism. Russian officials have tried to blame Ukraine for the attack without evidence, a claim both Ukraine and the U.S. deny. Dagestan, which has a history of insurgency and terrorism post-Second Chechen War, has also seen many locals join ISIS in the Middle East.
In response to the Crocus City Hall attack, the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs is ramping up actions against migrant communities with proposed legislation for stricter migration control, including mandatory fingerprinting, digital profiling, and the issuance of new ID documents, while also cutting allowable stay duration in half. These regulations aim to enhance monitoring and could coerce migrants into military service. A tenth suspect has been detained in connection with the attack as part of broader operations targeting migrants for identification and deportation, as evidenced by intensified efforts in St. Petersburg, though the connections between these operations are not fully clear. Concurrently, the Kremlin is deliberating the creation of a new department for interethnic and migration policy under direct presidential authority, a move underscored by President Putin’s call for a dedicated agency to address migration, separate from the Ministry of Internal Affairs. This initiative comes amidst anticipated critiques of ministry officials at upcoming discussions, potentially leading to a post-inauguration shakeup in the ministry’s leadership, with a prospective new minister from the Federal Security Service being rumored to take the helm.
A survey by OpenMinds reveals that over half of Russian respondents believe the Ukrainian leadership is behind the Crocus City Hall shooting in Moscow’s suburb, while 27% attribute the attack to ISIS, and 6% to the “collective West.” Despite ISIS’s claim of responsibility, Russian officials, including Putin, have accused Ukraine without evidence. The survey indicates younger Russians and those against the war are more likely to blame ISIS, whereas over 50% of Russians aged 31 to 50 believe Ukraine is responsible. The survey included 652 Russian participants.
Due to Ukrainian drone attacks and upcoming maintenance, Russia plans to cut its diesel exports from Black and Baltic Sea ports in April to a five-month low, as reported by Bloomberg. These fuel exports are a major economic pillar for Russia, with India and China being key buyers despite Western sanctions. The reduction is partly in response to Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, which have impacted approximately 12% of Russia’s oil-processing capacity. Diesel exports are expected to drop by 21% from March levels. President Zelensky has defended these attacks as a legitimate military response to Russian actions, amidst denials from Ukrainian officials about U.S. requests to cease targeting Russian energy facilities.
Russian military pilot defector Maksim Kuzminov was killed on February 13 in Villajoyosa, Spain, with 9mm Makarov pistol casings found at the scene, suggesting a sophisticated ambush and possible Russian organized crime or intelligence involvement. After defecting to Ukraine and openly opposing Russian aggression, Kuzminov had received $500,000, a Ukrainian passport, and a new identity. His open lifestyle in Spain, along with Russian satisfaction over his death and Ukrainian concerns, underscores the complexities of defection and the risks involved. The New York Times highlights the lack of direct evidence linking the Kremlin to the assassination, which was carried out by professionals who shot Kuzminov and ran over his body with a car later found burned. His assassination resembles previous killings tied to Russian intelligence and raises alarms about the extent of Russian spy activities in Europe. The high-profile nature of Kuzminov’s defection with a Mi-8 helicopter and his subsequent death may deter others from defecting, with Spain conducting a closely guarded investigation.
Russian operatives are reportedly using the cryptocurrency tether to bypass sanctions and acquire weapons and drone components. As Western sanctions aim to cut off funding for Russia’s war efforts, tether has gained prominence due to its dollar equivalence and the anonymity it offers compared to traditional banking. Transactions typically involve rubles being converted into tether by intermediaries, who then complete purchases from suppliers in regions like China and the Middle East. Electronic parts, including STM32 microcontrollers used in drones, have been paid for with tether and routed through Central Asia. The EU has implemented measures to curb the evasion of import restrictions on dual-use goods and sanctioned entities assisting in such circumvention.
Anti-Kremlin hackers have obtained a Russian prisoner database after opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s death in hopes of uncovering details about the circumstances. The database includes contacts for inmates and their families from the same colony where Navalny died. The hackers, who have shared the data with the public, also altered a prison online shop, reducing item prices to one ruble and posted a tribute to Navalny on the website. Navalny passed away on February 16, and his death has drawn international condemnation, with the European Council imposing sanctions and global leaders criticizing Putin for his treatment. The cause of Navalny’s death, whether due to prison conditions or deliberate action, remains uncertain.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian Ministry of Defense assures that the spring conscription starting April 1 won’t involve deploying conscripts to most occupied areas in Ukraine, excluding Crimea. Deputy Chief of the General Staff, Vice Admiral Tsimlyansky, clarified conscripts won’t be sent to combat zones in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts, and will instead undergo training before being assigned to units based on their skills. Despite this, there’s speculation about increased recruitment efforts within the conscription process to fill military ranks, with conscripts likely maintaining roles along the Russia-Ukraine border.
Russia is enhancing its drone operations and production, with the Kremlin directing the Ministry of Industry and Trade to support Dome JSC in making drone detection and suppression systems, and to use more domestic electronics in these systems. The creation of the “Pik” drone tower, reported by TASS, will extend the operating range of first-person view drones. This tower is planned to be installed on airfield control towers and ship masts to broaden the operational reach of FPV drones.
Russia’s Allies
Russia and Belarus are reportedly enhancing their collaboration in producing essential technical equipment, such as microelectronics, radio electronics, and machine tools, potentially to circumvent international sanctions. This initiative was highlighted by Russian Deputy Minister Viktor Evtukhov and further discussed in a meeting between Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and the Russian Governor of Oryol Oblast, Andrei Klychkov, focusing on microelectronics cooperation.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service is accusing Ukraine of orchestrating the March 22 Crocus City Hall terrorist attack and asserts that the United States is attempting to conceal Ukraine’s involvement by blaming the Islamic State (IS) group IS-Khorasan for the incident. The Institute for the Study of War, however, contends that the IS was behind the attack, finding no evidence that points to Ukrainian participation. The Kremlin is using these accusations to bolster domestic support for its military efforts in Ukraine by fueling fear and resentment towards supposed Ukrainian and Western complicity in terrorism within Russia. Complicating the narrative, Reuters has reported that Iranian officials had alerted Russia to a potential “major terrorist operation” before the Crocus City Hall incident took place, a claim which Russian authorities have denied, suggesting an effort to deflect criticism of their security measures and to lay the blame on Ukraine. Furthermore, the Russian Foreign Ministry is seeking to delist the Taliban as a designated terrorist organization and has extended an invitation to them for the upcoming Russia-Islamic World Forum in Kazan, scheduled for May 14-19. This pivot towards the Taliban, coupled with the sustained campaign against Ukraine, suggests a willingness by Russia to overlook actual terrorist threats, which could pose a significant long-term security challenge.
Pro-Russia channels have released a high-quality propaganda video targeting Ukraine, aiming to diminish trust in the Ukrainian government. Reports indicate that the video, noted for its cinematic quality, features professional Russian actors known from television shows, underscoring its role in a larger, well-funded information campaign. The involvement of these actors, with one explicitly distancing himself from the project, points to a deliberate effort by the Kremlin to undermine Ukrainian mobilization and foster internal dissent, continuing its use of sophisticated media as a tool in its information warfare strategy.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com