Summary of the day: Recent reports highlight escalating military tensions between Russia and Ukraine, with Ukrainian intelligence predicting a Russian offensive in June 2024 and Ukraine planning retaliatory strikes. Russian forces are intensifying their mobilization efforts, though they face challenges in rapidly developing effective reserves. Additionally, a Ukrainian attack on a Russian airfield in Crimea resulted in significant damage to military equipment. Meanwhile, in Germany, two individuals were arrested for allegedly aiding Russia in sabotaging NATO’s military infrastructure.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
German officials have arrested two individuals in Bavaria for allegedly planning to sabotage German military sites and logistics on behalf of Russian security services. Investigations revealed plans for arson and explosives targeting facilities key to supporting Ukraine. One suspect is reported to have scouted US military locations in Germany. In response, Germany summoned the Russian ambassador, while Russia’s embassy in Germany has denied the accusations, dismissing them as provocation and lacking evidence. This incident aligns with reported Russian efforts to disrupt NATO allies’ support for Ukraine, including cyber-attacks on European transport networks.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian intelligence chief Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov has highlighted that Ukraine is bracing for a substantial Russian offensive in June 2024, with the goal of seizing the entirety of Luhansk and Donetsk. This aggressive push is seen as a tactical move by Russia to sway Western political decisions. At the same time, Ukraine faces heightened risks of potential incursions on Kharkiv City, underscoring the critical need for continuous security assistance from the U.S. A shortfall in American aid may weaken Ukraine’s defensive posture. However, Ukraine has previously showcased its resilience and tactical prowess in repelling Russian offenses when adequately equipped. In a bid to counter the upcoming Russian offensive, Budanov asserts that Ukraine will persist in its strategic bombardment of pivotal Russian military sites within Russia’s borders, such as airfields and command hubs. These planned strikes are a strategic message to showcase the inability of Russian President Putin to shield his nation from the impacts of warfare. Furthermore, Ukraine’s planned countermeasures aim to erode Russian defense industries that fuel their war efforts and expose the frailties of Russia’s territorial defenses, leveraging their asymmetrical strengths to disrupt Russian military activities and strain their economic structures, even with limited weaponry at their disposal.
Ukrainian forces conducted a precision strike on a Russian military airfield in Dzhankoi, Crimea, destroying four S-400 air defense launchers, radar stations, a control point, and surveillance systems, with President Zelensky confirming the operation. The attack caused at least 30 Russian military casualties and over 80 injuries. Zelensky lauded the strike’s accuracy and coordination. There are suggestions that US-made ATACMS missiles might have been used. Ukrainian partisans also played a role and have criticized the proximity of missile storage to air defense sites. The operation targeted multiple pieces of military equipment and is part of Ukraine’s efforts to strike Russian military assets in occupied Crimea. Details on the extent of losses are still being assessed.
Ukrainian strikes have weakened the Russian Black Sea Fleet, leading to the relocation of Russian Kalibr missile-equipped ships from the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea. Ukraine reports that only half of the Black Sea Fleet’s Kalibr-equipped submarines remain operational, with the northern Black Sea’s shallow waters further restricting submarine activities.
Colonel Serhii Pakhomov of Ukraine’s military has reported that Russian forces have significantly increased the use of banned riot control gas in the conflict, with at least 900 instances in the past six months. Such gases, though non-lethal, incapacitate soldiers and have led to around 500 Ukrainian troops needing medical treatment, with at least one fatality. Ukraine is responding by issuing gas masks and training soldiers in their use. These actions by Russian forces contravene the 1925 Geneva Protocol and the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Positional battles are ongoing along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, with active engagements reported in areas southwest of Svatove, northwest and west of Kreminna, and south of Kreminna. Russian forces have made unsuccessful mechanized assault attempts near Yampolivka and Terny. They are currently operating near Bilohorivka.
There were sporadic skirmishes near Bakhmut and Siversk, particularly to the northeast, south, and southeast of Siversk. Despite these encounters, the front lines in these areas remained unchanged.
Russian troops have reportedly made advances near the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal, just east of Chasiv Yar, though there is no visual proof of this crossing. Clashes are ongoing around Chasiv Yar, with reports of Russian airstrikes targeting Ukrainian positions and ammunition stores in the region. Footage has surfaced allegedly showing Russian air support for ground operations near Chasiv Yar.
Russian forces have made tactical advancements northwest of Avdiivka, securing territory around Ocheretyne and Kalynove, while Ukrainian troops have retaken some positions. Visual evidence supports Russian progression along a railway and into Novokalynove, as well as Ukrainian gains in Berdychi. However, there’s no visual confirmation of further Russian advances in the adjacent areas. This region, particularly the northwest of Avdiivka, is the scene of ongoing positional battles. Simultaneously, Russian troops continue their offensive in the Donetsk region, capturing key railway lines and territories close to Avdiivka, with skirmishes unfolding in several surrounding settlements and in the vicinity of Donetsk city.
Russian forces are gaining ground near Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka by employing aggressive tactics that include direct assaults supported by heavy artillery and airstrikes. These gains have been facilitated by containing Ukrainian forces in key areas, enabling advances, albeit with significant Russian casualties. This pattern suggests that the effectiveness of the Ukrainian defense may be waning due to shortages in weapons and ammunition.
Russian forces have reportedly made progress southwest of Donetsk City, with ongoing skirmishes in the region. There are unconfirmed reports of an advance west of Solodke towards Vuhledar. Active fighting persists west of Donetsk near Krasnohorivka and southwest of the city in Pobieda, Novomykhailivka, and Vodyane.
Skirmishes persist in the border area between Donetsk and Zaporizhia Oblasts, specifically near the towns of Urozhaine and Staromayorske.
There were ongoing clashes in western Zaporizhia Oblast, especially around Robotyne, Verbove, and Mala Tokmachka. Russian claims of a slight advance in Robotyne remain unverified. Russian airborne units are reported to be active in the area.
There were continued positional battles near Krynky in eastern Kherson Oblast.
Ukrainian Victims Of War
The death toll from a Russian missile attack on Chernihiv on April 17 has risen to 18, with 78 people injured, including four children. The attack, which occurred in the morning, resulted in significant damage to an eight-story building, four high-rise buildings, a hospital, a higher education institution, and numerous cars.
Since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, at least 1,839 Ukrainian children have been killed or injured, according to Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office. Of these, 543 children died and 1,296 were injured. The highest number of child casualties, 529, occurred in Donetsk Oblast. Other significant casualties were recorded in Kharkiv, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Mykolaiv Oblasts. Recent incidents include the death of a 9-year-old boy in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and injuries to a 16-year-old girl in Kherson Oblast. A Russian missile strike on Chernihiv also wounded four children. The U.N. reports nearly 11,000 civilian deaths and over 20,500 injuries overall, with actual figures likely higher due to underreporting in Russian-occupied areas.
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the deaths of at least 11 people and the injuries of at least 32 others:
- Russian missile attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast resulted in at least nine deaths, including three children, and injured at least 29 people. Strikes in Dnipro caused significant damage, including a fire in a five-story building and targeting the city center. Additionally, infrastructure of Ukraine’s state railway was hit, injuring workers and briefly halting operations at Dnipro’s railway station. The attacks also damaged over 10 houses in the Synelnykove district, further contributing to the casualty count. In Kryvyi Rih, another infrastructure hit injured three people.
- Russian forces attacked several areas in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast on April 18, resulting in two deaths and three injuries, according to local authorities. The attacks damaged 11 buildings, an administrative facility, and a shop in Selydove, where a 63-year-old woman was found dead under rubble. Additionally, a 56-year-old man was killed in Ocheretyne, and further injuries occurred in Krasnohorivka and the Chasiv Yar community. Donetsk Oblast Governor Vadym Filashkin urged residents to evacuate due to the ongoing danger.
The aftermath of Russian attack on the city of Dnipro
Ukraine News
Russian forces carried out drone and missile strikes across Ukraine, targeting infrastructure and military sites, with all 13 drones shot down by Ukrainian forces. Strikes hit Pokrovsk and damaged facilities in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, where footage showed destruction in Liubymivka. Reports also suggest an S-300 missile strike in Kharkiv Oblast. Meanwhile, it’s noted that Russian forces have stockpiled a significant number of thermobaric and high-explosive bombs in Ukraine.
In a European Council meeting, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported significant damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure by Russian forces and stressed the urgent need for European support in air defense systems to counter the threat to nuclear power plants and other critical facilities. Zelensky pointed out the strategic importance of bolstering Ukraine’s military against Russian advances, mentioning successes in Crimea and the wider implications for European security. He cited substantial damages, like the destruction of the Trypillya power plant, to illustrate the severe artillery disadvantage Ukraine is facing, underscoring the critical need for increased aid and ammunition from European allies, especially after a Russian missile attack in Chernihiv resulted in civilian casualties.
A Russian soldier has been sentenced to 12 years for crimes committed during the Bucha atrocities in Ukraine. He was convicted of firing on civilians and concealing a body. This is part of over 9,000 war crimes, including the deaths of 1,400 civilians, discovered in Bucha. His sentence was reduced due to his cooperation with investigators.
Russian actions have disrupted satellite TV transmissions across Ukraine, affecting multiple channels, with broadcasters and media groups attributing the issues to intentional signal jamming. Investigations are underway to resolve the interference.
The IMF states that Ukraine needs at least $42 billion in aid this year to support its budget amid the war with Russia. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva believes this goal can be met but emphasizes the need for the conflict’s end. Ukraine, which received $42.5 billion last year, expects to receive the next EU aid installment of 1.5 billion euros soon. The total EU commitment is 50 billion euros over four years.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine is set to produce 10 domestically designed Bohdana howitzers in April, with more expected in the following months, announced President Zelensky. The self-propelled artillery units, capable of firing NATO-standard 155 mm shells, are part of Ukraine’s push to increase local weapons production as international military aid faces uncertainty. Zelensky highlighted the growth in Ukraine’s defense manufacturing, noting a tripling of equipment and weapons output in 2023 compared to the previous year.
Ukraine’s Allies
Denmark has initiated a new form of military aid by becoming the first country to purchase weapons and equipment directly from Ukrainian manufacturers, contributing to both Ukraine’s defense and economy. Announced by Denmark’s Defense Ministry, the aid package totals 2.2 billion Danish kroner ($313 million), with 200 million kroner ($28.5 million) specifically allocated for these purchases. This move is part of Ukraine’s broader effort to attract around $10 billion in foreign investment into its defense industry for 2024 under the campaign “Zbroyari: Manufacturing Freedom.”
Slovak citizens quickly raised over $1.6 million through a grassroots fundraising effort to contribute to a Czech-led ammunition initiative for Ukraine, after their Prime Minister Robert Fico declined to join the campaign. Facing a critical ammo shortage in their conflict with Russia, Ukraine has seen substantial financial contributions from several countries to this initiative. Over 23,000 Slovaks, including former foreign minister Ivan Korcok, have donated, signaling a strong public dissent from the government’s stance. Meanwhile, hostile reactions were reported from Slovakia’s Environment Minister Tomas Taraba when pressed on the issue. The Czech initiative has already contracted the first 180,000 rounds of ammunition for Ukraine, with delivery expected in the coming months.
During his visit to Kyiv, German Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck met with Ukraine’s President Zelensky to discuss the country’s need for more robust air defenses, reaffirming Germany’s long-term support. This marks Habeck’s second visit to Ukraine since the conflict’s escalation. Germany has pledged another Patriot system to Ukraine and is in discussions to supply additional IRIS-T systems, manufactured by Diehl Defense. Several IRIS-T systems are already operational in Ukraine, and the head of Diehl Defense has confirmed further deliveries are slated for this year. President Zelensky thanked Germany for its continued support in strengthening Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
Ukraine is in talks with the Czech Republic to secure a bilateral security agreement as part of efforts to enhance defense ties in the absence of NATO membership. This follows similar pacts with nine other nations, including the U.K., Germany, and France, which involve commitments for military aid. The Czech Republic, led by President Petr Pavel, is actively supporting Ukraine, recently spearheading efforts to supply artillery shells for Ukrainian forces.
The G7 countries are considering using frozen Russian assets, totaling around $300 billion, as collateral for loans to Ukraine, according to Reuters. Although no definitive plan has been established, European Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis mentioned that options under discussion include collateralizing, rather than confiscating, these assets. Furthermore, the EU is planning to utilize profits from these assets to aid Ukraine. Discussions at a recent G7 finance ministers meeting in Washington did not result in a consensus, but efforts will continue with the aim to present a strategy at the June summit in Italy.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that six additional Patriot air defense systems from NATO countries are potentially available for Ukraine. This follows Germany’s recent commitment to provide an extra system, making it the third Patriot system Berlin has supplied to Ukraine. The announcement was made after a Special European Council summit in Brussels, where Scholz urged other countries to match Germany’s support. The summit also addressed financing Ukraine’s military needs, agreeing to use profits from frozen Russian assets, which total around $300 billion. This funding strategy aligns with previous suggestions from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to purchase military equipment for Ukraine using these profits.
EU’s Josep Borrell called for member states to send anti-missile systems to Ukraine amid intensified Russian attacks damaging the country’s energy sector. Post-G7, Borrell stresses the urgency for Europe’s direct contribution, noting a push for 25 Patriot systems.
House Speaker Mike Johnson is set to introduce a restructured $95 billion foreign aid package, including a $10 billion loan for Ukraine, which could be forgiven. This package, separate from Senate proposals, is part of a broader set of bills also covering Israel, the Indo-Pacific region, and national security. Amid internal party debates and concerns about political ramifications, Johnson underscores the ethical and strategic need to aid Ukraine, suggesting the utilization of frozen Russian assets. A Senate filibuster could require a 60-vote threshold, and amendments would lead to another House vote, scheduled for Saturday.
The Democratic Party supports this series of bills, crucial for Ukrainian defense, and provides about $69 billion for this purpose. With resistance from some Republicans, the Democratic backing is key, potentially protecting Johnson from ouster threats by Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene. The bill’s passage would move it to the Senate and possibly to President Biden for signing.
CIA Director William Burns also pressed for prompt U.S. aid to prevent Ukraine’s defeat, emphasizing the importance of military support with the front lines’ situation deteriorating and Russia poised for a summer offensive.
In Washington, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen discussed the aid package, sanctions, and asset seizure. Shmyhal anticipates the expedited U.S. aid, voting on April 20, while Yellen highlights the harm of delays to U.S. national security.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported an attempted drone attack at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant’s training center, noting no casualties or damage. This incident, heard by IAEA staff, is the third such attack in recent weeks. Russian forces denied the IAEA team access to the site, citing security risks. The plant, Europe’s largest and under Russian control since March 2022, has faced disconnections from Ukraine’s power grid and has been used by Russian troops to launch strikes on Ukrainian areas. IAEA’s chief expressed concern over the potential for a serious nuclear accident. Ukrainian officials have not commented, and Russian authorities restrict IAEA’s access to the plant.
Russia News
Since the start of its invasion on February 24, 2022, Russia has lost 456,960 troops in Ukraine, according to the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
The UK Ministry of Defense has reported improvements to the port infrastructure at Novorossiysk, Russia, to support the Black Sea Fleet after Ukrainian strikes in Crimea. Recent activity suggests the port can now service advanced Russian naval vessels that were previously supported only in Sevastopol. This development indicates a strategic shift of Russian naval assets away from occupied Crimea.
Following a violent crime by an Azeri migrant in Moscow, Russian military bloggers have called for tougher migration policies. The incident led to heightened demands for stricter controls and harsher penalties for migrants who commit crimes. Kremlin-backed news has been cautious in its reporting, only highlighting the suspect’s migrant status after authorities made it public. Despite Russian President Putin’s attempts to calm anti-migrant sentiment, pressures from ultranationalists have led to some policy responses. Russia’s education authority is proposing additional language requirements for migrants, reflecting a limited shift towards the stricter policies demanded by nationalist groups, but the government remains careful not to impact its military recruitment or worsen labor shortages.
Chinese and other nationals reportedly paid a Russian soldier to draw messages on artillery shells, a service highlighted by the discovery of shells with Chinese characters and pro-Russian messages. Photos shared by Ukraine’s 35th Separate Marine Brigade and later found on social media suggest that some of the images could be fabricated or altered. Kyiv Post investigations traced the origin of these photos to a user known as GrishaPutin, who offered such drawing services for a fee. Allegations on social media accuse GrishaPutin of possibly photoshopping the drawings rather than physically marking the shells. The authenticity of many of these drawings remains in question, as some social media users noted inconsistencies and potential digital alterations in the images provided.
Russian diesel exports have dropped by 25% following Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries, as reported by Bloomberg using Kpler data. These strikes, including an attack on a major refinery in Tatarstan, have reached deep into Russian territory. The U.S. has expressed concern over these actions, citing potential risks to the global energy market.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian military is ramping up its recruitment efforts, aiming to bolster its ranks without a formal mobilization call-up, and attempting to recruit around 300,000 personnel by offering increased financial incentives. Despite claims of substantial new contracts, Russia is challenged by decreasing recruitment rates and training capacity issues. This suggests that any additional forces may lack the necessary preparation for effective operations. Consequently, while Russian forces are actively engaging in combat, their ability to form substantial and proficient reserves before the anticipated summer 2024 offensive is doubtful. Instead of forming a well-trained reserve force, Russia is more likely to use new recruits to fill immediate manpower needs in ongoing, attrition-heavy engagements.
Russia’s Allies
A Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty investigation reveals that Russian Sukhoi aircraft use over 2,000 U.S. and Japanese components in their navigation and communication systems. These parts reportedly reach Russia through intermediaries in Hong Kong, Turkey, China, and Hungary. Bloomberg also notes that Russia depends on Chinese firms for key defense industry imports.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Kremlin officials are actively working to undermine US support for Ukraine, with spokesperson Dmitri Peskov claiming that US security assistance will not affect the war’s outcome, a statement aimed at influencing upcoming US congressional decisions on military aid. Additionally, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Maria Zakharova has reiterated accusations against Ukraine of human rights abuses and provocations towards Russia, framing these as part of a Western-enabled escalation. These statements are part of Russia’s broader strategy to discourage Western support for Ukraine by suggesting potential escalation risks.
Microsoft has reported the start of a Russian disinformation campaign aimed at the upcoming U.S. election, reviving tactics used in previous elections. This campaign involves spreading divisive content, particularly criticizing U.S. support for Ukraine, through fake “whistleblower” stories that often gain traction in U.S. media. While there were concerns about AI-based disinformation, traditional methods remain Russia’s main strategy. The election features Joe Biden and likely Republican nominee Donald Trump, with differing views on Ukraine, highlighting the stakes for U.S. foreign policy.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com