Summary of the day: The Kremlin is escalating its military and informational efforts against Kharkiv City, Ukraine, aiming to induce panic and displacement among Ukrainians in anticipation of a potential offensive. Although the likelihood of a successful Russian ground assault on Kharkiv is assessed as low, especially with the prompt arrival of U.S. military support, Russia continues to intensify its operations to exploit current limitations in Ukrainian air defenses. Concurrently, tensions are mounting in the northwest of Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, where Russian forces are attempting a significant breach, but are likely to face setbacks due to imminent Western military aid. Additionally, Finland is taking measures to counteract Russian hybrid tactics at its border, highlighting broader regional concerns over Russian aggressive strategies.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Finland is actively bolstering its defenses against Russian hybrid threats, including a deliberate influx of migrants at its border, increased cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns. This response follows Finland’s NATO membership and Russia’s attempts to intimidate and destabilize the country. Recent escalations have significantly strained Finland-Russia relations, marking a critical shift in their diplomatic dynamics. These measures by Finland aim to secure its sovereignty and strengthen its position within NATO amid ongoing Russian hostilities.
The upcoming summit of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group is scheduled for April 26, as announced by Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren. This coalition of over 50 nations, including NATO members, coordinates military support for Ukraine. Coinciding with the second anniversary of the first such summit, this meeting will occur online. The previous summit on March 19 saw Germany pledge significant military aid to Ukraine. Discussions include the possibility of NATO taking over the group’s leadership.
Polish President Andrzej Duda stated that Poland is prepared to host nuclear weapons if NATO decides to strengthen its eastern flank in response to Russia’s increased military presence in Belarus and Kaliningrad. In an interview with the Polish newspaper Fakt, Duda noted ongoing discussions about nuclear cooperation with the U.S. and highlighted Russia’s actions, including moving nuclear arms to Belarus, as confirmed by Russian President Vladimir Putin. This statement follows a recent NATO summit pledge to maintain a credible nuclear deterrent.
The Kremlin is emphasizing its strong ties with Azerbaijan while downplaying strained relations with Armenia after failing to prevent Armenia’s loss of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently praised the growing bilateral relationship and economic ties with Azerbaijan during a meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, discussing regional security issues. Meanwhile, relations with Armenia are tense, as evidenced by vague promises of upcoming meetings and comments on the reduced role of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh following significant geopolitical shifts. This situation underscores Russia’s complex diplomatic engagements in the Caucasus region.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
The Kremlin is intensifying operations to destabilize Kharkiv City, Ukraine, using airstrikes and information campaigns to induce panic and displacement among civilians. Despite Russian claims of impending offensives, the likelihood of a successful ground assault on Kharkiv is deemed low, especially with swift US military aid. Tensions rise as Russia aims to exploit Ukrainian vulnerabilities before anticipated Western assistance arrives, signaling a critical need for continued support to bolster Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
Russia is escalating military and information campaigns in Kharkiv City, exploiting gaps in Ukrainian air defenses amid increasing tensions. This intensification occurs as the U.S. is expected to deliver military aid soon. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov indicated that capturing Kharkiv is key to creating a “sanitary zone” to buffer against Ukrainian attacks. However, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that a successful Russian takeover would be difficult without significant changes in their current military capabilities. U.S. and Western support, especially in air defense, is crucial for Ukraine to defend the city effectively.
The Russian “Sudoplatov” volunteer drone initiative is equipping military personnel operating near Bakhmut with drones that are low-quality and frequently defective. Reports from servicemen indicate that their training is rudimentary, taking place near the frontlines without the benefit of simulator use. Operating on a single frequency, these drones are vulnerable to Ukrainian electronic warfare, leading to the malfunction of nearly one-third shortly after takeoff. Their effectiveness has dwindled notably since the fall of 2023, as Ukrainian forces have become more proficient at neutralizing them, necessitating the deployment of multiple drones to achieve a single hit. Compounding these technical issues, a military blogger has highlighted the Russian military command’s inadequate grasp of technology, which results in drone operators—often lacking motivation and the necessary technical knowledge—being tasked with impractical objectives. There’s an absence of coordinated efforts between electronic warfare and drone units, which undermines the drones’ support for ground assaults. This problem is exacerbated by the military command’s tendency to overformalize drone operations, diminishing their battlefield efficacy.
Ukrainian Navy spokesperson reported that Ukrainian forces struck the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s submarine support ship, Kommuna, which was carrying naval drones, on April 21. It is noted that the Russian Navy lacks comparable ships to replace the Kommuna in the Black Sea, suggesting a significant setback for the fleet.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Positional battles were ongoing along the Svatove-Kreminna line with no shifts in the frontline reported. Skirmishes took place in multiple locations around Svatove and Kreminna, including near Novoyehorivka, Terny, Torske, the Serebryanske forest, Bilohorivka, and Hryhorivka, but the overall military positions remained unchanged.
Russian forces launched ground attacks northeast of Bakhmut in the Siversk area, but the frontline remained unchanged. Ukrainian forces successfully repelled these attacks near Zolotarivka, Spirne, and Vyimka, as reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
Russian military campaigns toward Chasiv Yar are proceeding without definitive territorial control, despite Russian bloggers’ claims of capturing Bohdanivka. Significant Russian forces, reportedly numbering between 20,000 and 25,000 and including units like the 217th Guards Airborne Regiment, face resistance from Ukrainian defenders. Reconnaissance activities suggest preparations for intensified ground assaults around Chasiv Yar, with noted movements east near Ivanivske and southeast near Klishchiivka and Andriivka. Additional footage shows Russian progress south of Ozaryanivka, near Horlivka. In the strategically positioned Chasiv Yar, Ukrainian forces hold the city against Russian incursions, as President Zelensky and military officials expect continued Russian advances aiming for the town by May 9, aligning with Russia’s Victory Day, amidst Ukraine’s diminishing supplies and ammunition.
Russian forces have recently achieved tactical gains in Ocheretyne, northwest of Avdiivka, with new footage showing the raising of a Russian flag over central buildings, indicating significant advancements. However, full control of Ocheretyne is not yet confirmed. Additional claims of Russian progress in nearby Semenivka and on the outskirts of Pervomaiske lack visual confirmation.
Russian forces are attempting a significant breakthrough in Ukrainian defenses northwest of Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, concentrating their efforts along the Berdychi-Novokalynove line. This offensive involves a substantial military presence, aiming to expand territorial control. However, the effectiveness of this push is expected to be limited by the imminent arrival of US and European military aid to Ukraine. This external support is anticipated to strengthen Ukrainian defenses and counteract Russian tactical gains, potentially shifting the balance in this region. The urgency of Russian advances reflects a race against time to achieve strategic objectives before increased Western support solidifies Ukrainian resistance.
Russian forces have advanced west of Donetsk City, as recent geolocated footage suggests. Despite the Russian Defense Ministry’s claim of seizing Novomykhailivka, credible reports confirm Ukrainian forces are defending the village’s western outskirts and controlling the area amid heavy combat. The situation in Novomykhailivka is described as tense yet managed by Ukraine’s 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade, according to spokesperson Yaroslav Chepurnyi. Ukrainian troops continue to counter ongoing Russian offensives, which include assaults with armored vehicles. As a key battlefield since the late autumn, Novomykhailivka has seen Russian forces suffer substantial equipment losses, with over 300 pieces lost in six months. The Ukrainian General Staff acknowledges the continuing defense efforts in Novomykhailivka, situated approximately 10 kilometers south of Marinka. This area has become known as one of the largest collections of destroyed Russian equipment during the war.
Russian forces have made recent advances in the border area between Donetsk and Zaporizhia Oblasts, as evidenced by geolocated footage showing a friendly fire incident east of Urozhaine. Positional engagements are ongoing near Staromayorske.
In western Zaporizhia Oblast, positional battles persisted without any confirmed territorial gains. Fighting occurred near Robotyne and northwest of Verbove. Russian military bloggers reported regular Ukrainian drone strikes targeting the Tokmak-Polohy highway and Russian military assets in the region.
Fighting continued on the east bank of Kherson Oblast, particularly near Krynky and the Antonivsky roadway bridge north of Oleshky, without any confirmed changes to the frontline positions.
Ukrainian Victims Of War
The casualty count of Ukrainian civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 0 INJURIES: 7
- Russian drones struck a residential area in Odesa, injuring seven, among them two children. The attack caused a fire and damaged 14 apartments. First responders rescued 34 people, including three children, and are addressing the situation, with no specifics on injury severity reported yet.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a limited series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine, deploying seven drones and three missiles from occupied territories. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted five drones over Odesa Oblast. The attacks resulted in damage to agricultural infrastructure in Odesa City, as reported by Ukrainian officials.
The Kremlin’s campaign against Kharkiv involves both air strikes and disinformation to induce Ukrainian evacuation, hinting at future offensives. In a recent example, a Russian missile damaged Kharkiv’s TV tower, disrupting broadcasts and evoking memories of the March 2022 Kyiv TV tower attack—tactics designed to destabilize Ukraine and sway public opinion. Additionally, Kharkiv’s TV tower suffered a partial collapse from a Kh-59 missile strike, causing broadcast interruptions but no casualties. Restoration efforts for the signal are in progress. The same day saw further aggression with strikes on Vovchansk and other Kharkiv Oblast villages.
Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s intelligence chief, in a BBC interview, forecasted a difficult yet non-catastrophic period for Ukraine from mid-May to early June. Budanov dismissed notions of an “Armageddon” but highlighted impending multifaceted challenges posed by Russia, spanning military and political arenas. This statement comes as Ukraine prepares for increased pressures, notably near the heavily contested Chasiv Yar, alongside anticipating significant US aid which recently passed the House but awaits Senate approval. Concurrently, Ukrainian President Zelensky remarked on NBC News about the crucial timing of receiving this aid to stabilize and boost Ukrainian defenses amid ongoing losses.
Cisco Talos, a US cybersecurity firm, has reported detecting the OfflRouter virus in Ukrainian networks, primarily embedded in text documents from government agencies. This virus, active since 2015, uses these documents as lures to infect government and military organizations’ systems, potentially uploading confidential documents from infected computers. Although the virus spreads through file sharing and physical media like USB drives, it does not have the capability to spread via email. The virus’s design flaws, and limited target range have confined its impact mostly within Ukraine, with only 100 original infected documents found, written in Ukrainian, contributing to its low detection rate outside the country. Cisco Talos suggests that the virus was likely developed by an inexperienced programmer, noting numerous coding errors and an outdated focus on .doc files. The origin of the virus is believed to be outside Ukraine, based on debugging evidence.
Polish protesters have lifted their blockade at the Yahodyn-Dorohusk border crossing with Ukraine, restoring traffic flow as of 1:40 p.m. local time, according to Ukraine’s State Customs Service. The blockades, initiated by Polish farmers in February due to concerns over Ukrainian agricultural imports and EU environmental policies, had caused significant truck backlogs. Despite recent disruptions, including a planned two-day blockade at the Korczowa-Krakovets crossing, the easing of protests comes amidst strained Kyiv-Warsaw relations, aggravated by incidents of protestors dumping Ukrainian grain.
DTEK, Ukraine’s major private energy firm, needs $350 million for repairs after Russian strikes damaged 80% of its thermal power capacity. Executive Director Dmytro Sakharuk warned of potential electricity shortages and noted the company’s past year’s $110 million expenditure on similar repairs. Currently seeking funding, DTEK is negotiating for parts from European nations to restore operations affected by conflict-related damage.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
President Zelensky of Ukraine emphasized the need for younger recruits in the military, highlighting their physical fitness and quicker adaptation to modern battlefield technologies like UAVs and cybersecurity. A recent law lowered the draft age from 27 to 25 to meet these requirements and to prepare new soldiers to relieve those who have been fighting for two years. Zelensky asserts that effective replacement depends on proper training and physical condition, recognizing that younger combatants can better handle the demands of a technologically driven war. This change is part of Ukraine’s updated conscription laws to enhance mobilization efforts.
Ukraine is ramping up its domestic weapons production, with President Zelensky reporting the manufacture of 10 Bohdana howitzers in April 2024. U.S. experts predict a tenfold increase in the production of Neptune missiles, now with a range of up to 1,000 kilometers. Additionally, Ukraine has deployed 2,000 domestically produced short-range electronic warfare systems to its military frontlines.
German and Ukrainian ministers inaugurated Quantum-Systems GmbH’s second drone production facility in Ukraine on April 18. The company plans to invest up to €6 million in its Ukrainian operations over the next two years.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov has announced ongoing reforms in the defense sector to address corruption. The Ministry of Defense has overhauled its procurement system to align with NATO standards, a change that has already helped identify violations amounting to approximately 2.16 billion hryvnyas ($54.3 million). This new system is part of a broader six-month priority plan focusing on defense planning, procurement, production, and technology development.
Ukraine’s Allies
Ukraine continues to receive significant aid from European nations. The Netherlands pledged €150 million for air defense systems and an additional €60 million for equipment against drones. Germany is set to deliver another IRIS-T air defense system shortly. Latvia is ready to supply a short-range air defense system, while Denmark has dedicated approximately $314 million for military assistance, including naval strengthening, ammunition, and drones, with $28 million going towards purchases from Ukrainian manufacturers. In Slovakia, a crowdfunding campaign has raised $3.4 million to support these efforts. Ukraine is also discussing a security agreement with the Czech Republic, and Germany has approved €5.2 billion for military exports, with around €3.8 billion for Ukraine. Ukrainian officials report no instances of arms smuggling out of the country.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is set to announce an additional £500 million in military support for Ukraine during his visit to Poland. This increase will raise the U.K.’s total military aid for the current fiscal year to £3 billion. Sunak, who will meet Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and later German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, emphasizes that stopping Russian advances is crucial for Europe’s security, stressing that the threat won’t stop at Poland’s border. The U.K. plans to provide Ukraine with a substantial package of equipment, including boats, vehicles, missiles, and ammunition, as part of its commitment to European security and NATO allies.
Spain and Greece face calls to donate air defense systems to Ukraine to help counter increasing Russian attacks. At a recent EU summit, European leaders highlighted that Ukraine’s needs surpass those of the two nations, which together hold numerous systems like the Patriot and S-300s.
Sweden’s Defense Minister Pal Jonson indicated the country might consider sending Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine, according to the Guardian. While Jonson did not commit to sending Patriots immediately, he mentioned Sweden’s ongoing support, including possible additional man-portable RBS 70 systems.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has stated that Poland is unable to send any Patriot defense systems to Ukraine due to its own security needs, especially as the system at Rzeszow airport is crucial for defense aid logistics and is operated by U.S. forces. However, Poland will continue to assist Ukraine with other forms of air defense weaponry.
Ukraine’s President Zelensky announced the completion of an agreement with the U.S. for long-range ATACMS missiles following a conversation with President Biden. The U.S. House recently passed a $61 billion aid bill for Ukraine, unlocking assistance previously stalled due to political infighting. This aid includes the delivery of ATACMS missiles, which have a range of up to 300 kilometers, though previously only older 165-kilometer range models were sent to Ukraine. Deliveries of the long-range systems could begin within days. While Ukraine continues to request advanced weaponry, concerns remain over the potential escalation of conflict with Russia, as indicated by U.S. and German leaders’ caution regarding the supply of such arms.
U.S. Congressman Bill Keating, while in Kyiv, announced the prompt arrival of U.S. military aid for Ukraine following the imminent Senate approval of a $61 billion aid package. The Pentagon is ready to immediately dispatch the aid, which includes urgently needed artillery and air defense munitions, with the possibility of some weapons reaching Ukraine within days. During a bipartisan meeting with President Zelensky, U.S. lawmakers committed to additional support, including ATACMS missiles, which are crucial for Ukraine’s air defense amidst escalating Russian attacks. The U.S. reaffirmed their continued support for Ukraine’s diverse military needs.
Simultaneously, President Zelensky spoke with President Biden about the aid package’s Senate approval, which Biden is prepared to sign swiftly. The package focuses on enhancing Ukraine’s air defense, artillery, and long-range capabilities. Senator Mark Warner hinted at a quick dispatch of long-range missile systems following the bill’s enactment. The call also covered the impact of Russian military actions, including the assault on Kharkiv’s TV tower, and the widespread effects of Russian aggression on Ukrainian civilians.
The World Bank’s International Finance Corporation (IFC) is set to invest $1.9 billion in Ukraine’s private sector projects over the next 18 months, adding to the $1.1 billion already committed since Russia’s invasion. This funding will support long-term, capital-intensive projects like river transport and renewable energy sources, despite the risks associated with ongoing conflict. The injection aims to bolster the Ukrainian economy, which is showing signs of improvement with a projected 3.2% GDP growth for the year, even as private investments remain scarce due to war uncertainties.
Peter Tschentscher, Mayor of Hamburg, visited Kyiv to affirm ongoing support and solidarity with Ukraine. He met with Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko to discuss cooperation under the ‘Pact for Solidarity & Future’ established between their cities.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov stated that over 41,000 Chechen soldiers, including 17,000 volunteers, have been deployed to Ukraine since the Russian invasion, with more than 9,000 currently engaged in combat. These figures are unverified by independent sources.
Russian criminals who fought in Ukraine and returned are committing new offenses in Russia. A former convict and Wagner Group fighter, once imprisoned for murder, has been reported to have killed a woman after his return. Meanwhile, regional officials in Russia are showcasing these ex-convicts as war veterans, using their stories to encourage recruitment and promote nationalism, with one released convict giving a “patriotic lecture” in a school.
Russian drone manufacturers are reportedly upgrading Shahed-136/131 drones, increasing their payload capacity to 90 kilograms, and working on new warhead types, including incendiary and thermobaric, for use in Ukraine. Classified information allegedly from a Russian production facility suggests that enhancements also involve the use of Ukrainian SIM cards for real-time tracking of drones. Plans are underway to expand production capabilities, including the acquisition of 10,000 signal trackers and other equipment by the end of 2024.
The General Director of Russia’s “Geran” enterprise announced the deployment of a new AI-powered portable anti-drone jammer, “Gyurza,” on the frontline. This device can discern between Ukrainian and Russian drone frequencies and selectively jam only those used by Ukrainian drones. This technology aims to resolve issues with Russian electronic warfare systems that previously disrupted their own drones by indiscriminately jamming frequencies.
Russia’s Allies
Iranian Deputy Minister of Defense Mehdi Jafari visited military and scientific institutions in Minsk, Belarus, as part of a cooperation initiative. In related developments, Belarus is increasing its collaboration with Russian regional governments to facilitate the transport of Belarusian goods, which may be aimed at circumventing sanctions. Agreements were signed for constructing a new sea terminal at Lavna port in Murmansk for handling Belarusian exports like mineral fertilizers and petroleum, with operations expected to start in 2028. Discussions also occurred between Belarus and the Arkhangelsk region about exporting Belarusian goods through the port of Arkhangelsk.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Russian media are ramping up a disinformation campaign to incite panic in Kharkiv City, exploiting fears of a potential military offensive. Reports falsely claim mass civilian exits and blocked evacuations, aiming to portray an inevitable Russian takeover. Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) asserts that with prompt U.S. military support, Ukraine can hold off a Russian ground attack. Russian commentators push narratives of imminent destruction to coerce civilian departures, highlighting a strategy of psychological warfare alongside physical attacks.
Ahead of US Secretary of State Blinken’s visit to China, the Kremlin is touting its relationship with China as extensive and closely aligned on various issues. Foreign Minister Lavrov emphasized the deepening ties, including a shift away from using the dollar in trade, now conducted mostly in rubles or yuan. Despite these statements, there are reports of major Chinese banks halting yuan transactions with Russian firms, indicating China’s cautious stance towards fully embracing the described “no limits” partnership.
Following the US House of Representatives’ approval of a supplementary aid bill for Ukraine on April 20, Russian milbloggers have been actively promoting narratives to discourage US policymakers from continuing their support and to diminish Western and Ukrainian expectations regarding the aid’s battlefield impact. These bloggers assert that US assistance will not alter the frontline dynamics and claim it merely delays Ukraine’s eventual defeat by Russia. The Institute for the Study of War anticipates that Russian information campaigns will escalate efforts to undermine Western support for Ukraine.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com