Summary of the day: Russian President Vladimir Putin began his fifth term, emphasizing the importance of unchallenged autocratic rule and indirectly calling for victory in Ukraine. Russian ultranationalists celebrated the event as historic, approving Putin’s authoritarian vision and anti-Western ideology, while the formal resignation of Prime Minister Mishustin and the cabinet opened the door for strategic shifts under Putin’s favor. Belarus launched a surprise nuclear readiness inspection amid the Kremlin’s campaign to influence Western decision-making. Meanwhile, Russian forces made advances near Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and western Zaporizhia Oblast, and occupation officials ramped up efforts to forcibly recruit Ukrainians in Kherson Oblast.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Kremlin officials are ramping up their campaign to influence Western decision-making using nuclear threats and diplomatic tactics. Russia’s Ambassador to the U.S., Anatoly Antonov, claimed that “aggressive” Western policies forced Russia to prepare for sudden nuclear drills. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova warned that UK support allowing Ukraine to strike Russian targets is escalatory and could lead to Russia targeting UK military facilities. Despite these nuclear threats, experts believe Russia is unlikely to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The Kremlin will likely continue this strategy to weaken Western support for Ukraine and prevent strikes on Russian targets.
Belarus, in conjunction with Russia, initiated surprise inspections to assess readiness for nuclear deployment, focusing on tactical nuclear weapon carriers and forces. President Alexander Lukashenko directed the inspections, involving standby Iskander missile launchers and Su-25 aircraft. This action mirrors Russia’s recent announcement of similar drills, seen as exerting pressure on Western support for Ukraine. Despite hosting Russian tactical nuclear arms, Belarus is unlikely to escalate to nuclear conflict, remaining aligned with Russia but not directly involved in the Ukraine conflict.
The U.K. Defense Ministry faced a cyberattack likely by Chinese hackers, targeting the payroll system and compromising personal data. Lawmakers demand acknowledgment of China as a systemic threat. Defense Secretary Grant Shapps is set to address Parliament on the incident. Amidst this, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s EU visit coincides with rising tensions over China’s support for Russia in the Ukraine conflict.
Polish Prime Minister Tusk urged Europe to increase defense spending for a stronger defense against potential threats. He proposed the creation of a common European air defense system, emphasizing the need for significant financial investment. Tusk’s remarks come amidst heightened concerns over Russian espionage, with bugs found in a meeting room in Katowice.
A group of 31 European Parliament lawmakers urged the EU to suspend Georgia’s candidate status due to concerns over undemocratic behavior by Georgian authorities. They criticized a proposed law on foreign agents, likening it to Russian repression. Scheduled for a final vote on May 17, the law could stifle NGOs and civil society groups. EU officials warned that passing it would harm Georgia’s EU aspirations. The letter to the EU’s top diplomat called for firm action and a review of EU funding. Georgia’s pursuit of EU membership faces scrutiny amid ongoing mass protests against the law.
A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger falsely claimed that NATO’s Steadfast Defender 2024 exercises aim to expand Western control in Moldova and threaten Russia. The blogger alleged that NATO is using the Swift Response drills to gain control through Romanian forces entering Moldova. In reality, Swift Response will take place across multiple countries, including Moldova, Romania, Estonia, and others. Despite Russia’s portrayal of the drills as threatening, NATO insists that they are defensive in nature, responding to Russian aggression in Ukraine and threats against NATO states.
A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger criticized Kazakhstan for alleged anti-Russian actions and supposed Western influence. The milblogger claimed hackers revealed plans for a Ukrainian official to visit Kazakhstan to meet with aircraft repair specialists. He also condemned an Almaty exhibit showing photos of a victim from the January 2022 Kazakh protests, portraying it as Western influence and a sign of Kazakhstan’s weakness. The milblogger consistently portrays any democratic activities in post-Soviet states as being influenced by the West and inherently anti-Russian.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russia’s concern over potential Ukrainian strikes on military targets in Crimea is affecting its logistics in the region. On the night of May 6-7, Russian authorities temporarily closed airspace over Crimea and the Kerch Strait Bridge due to fears of a Ukrainian missile and naval drone attack. Although the bridge reopened after 30 minutes, reports indicate that Russia has shifted to overland rail routes through occupied Ukraine following an attack on the bridge in July 2023. This change has brought Russian supply lines closer to Ukraine’s long-range weapons.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces maintained offensive efforts along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, but the frontline remained unchanged. They reportedly advanced northwest of Svatove near Kyslivka and Kotlyarivka, though this lacks visual confirmation. Operations also continued northeast of Kupyansk and around Kreminna in several directions, with some sources suggesting that airborne units (VDV) may be operating near the Serebryanske forest area. However, there is no confirmation of VDV presence.
Russian forces launched ground attacks near Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Vyimka, and Rozdolivka in the Siversk region, but no changes to the frontline were confirmed.
Russian forces continued attacks near Chasiv Yar but didn’t change the frontline. They launched ground assaults northeast of the town near Bohdanivka, in the eastern Novyi Microraion, east near Ivanivske, and southeast near Klishchiivka and Andriivka. Ukrainian forces are repairing bridges across the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal to restore communication routes.
Russian forces advanced northwest of Avdiivka along a railway line west of Ocheretyne. They reportedly moved through fields east of Novopokrovske, reaching its southern outskirts. They also advanced southward along the Novobakhmutivka-Berdychi line, though these claims lack confirmation. Ground assaults continued northwest of Avdiivka near various settlements, including Novooleksandrivka and Novoselivka Persha.
The Black Eagle unit announced the deaths of two Georgian volunteers, David Gogadze and Beso Lomidze, in the Avdiivka sector of eastern Ukraine. They were killed during military operations. Georgians top the list of foreign fighters killed while supporting Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. The Black Eagle unit expressed condolences to their families but did not disclose the exact date of their deaths.
Russian forces made slight advances southwest of Donetsk City, as shown in geolocated footage of western Novomykhailivka. Ground attacks also continued west of the city near Krasnohorivka and southwest near Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
Fighting continued near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border in the area of Staromayorske and Urozhaine, south of Velyka Novosilka.
Russian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast, reaching new positions along Skidhna Street in southeastern Robotyne. Although a Russian source claimed further advances in northwestern Robotyne, this isn’t visually confirmed. Attacks were also reported northwest of Verbove.
Limited fighting continued on the eastern side of Kherson Oblast near Krynky, without significant frontline changes. Recent footage shows Russian forces occupying a residential area north of the Krynky-Kozachi Laheri road. However, their efforts to advance further onto Nestryha Island are hampered by Ukrainian fire.
Ukrainian Southern Operational Command spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk said that Russia’s “Dnepr River Flotilla” poses no significant threat in Kherson Oblast due to inadequate resources. Some Russian units have boats, while others have stolen fishing boats from locals. Despite Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s announcement of the flotilla and a “brigade” of boats, the flotilla lacks the strength to establish a large Russian presence or reclaim significant territory in Kherson Oblast.
Ukrainian Civilian Victims Of War
The casualty count of Ukrainian civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS:0 INJURIES: 6
- At least six people, including a six-year-old girl and a 91-year-old woman, were injured during Russian strikes in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The city was attacked by 14 kamikaze drones and artillery strikes. Ten houses and other structures were damaged.
A car destroyed in the Russian strikes on Nikopol
Ukraine News
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down two Russian Kh-59/69 cruise missiles over Odesa Oblast.
Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) uncovered a network of Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) agents plotting to assassinate President Volodymyr Zelensky and other top Ukrainian officials. Two colonels from Ukraine’s State Guard, recruited before the 2022 invasion, were detained for allegedly sharing classified information with the FSB’s Fifth Service. This network sought individuals close to Zelensky’s security to capture and kill him, with agents receiving drones, warheads, and mines for the attack. The operation was reportedly supervised by FSB employees Maxim Mishustin, Dmitry Perlin, and Alexey Kornev and was intended as a “gift” for Putin’s inauguration. Other targets included SBU chief Vasyl Maliuk and Ukrainian intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov, who was to be attacked before Orthodox Easter. The SBU further noted that Ukrainian and Polish authorities had previously detained a Polish citizen offering to help Russia assassinate Zelensky.
Hungarian State Secretary Azbej noted “positive signs” in Ukraine’s efforts to address minority rights issues but stated that more progress is needed. Disputes between Budapest and Kyiv mainly revolve around language laws affecting the Hungarian minority. Hungary has outlined 11 demands, including restoring minority rights predating 2015. Ukraine’s recent changes to its national minorities law align with EU recommendations for accession.
Ukrainian soldier Nazarii Hryntsevych, known as “Hrinka,” was killed on the front lines, reported by the Contact 12 special forces group of the Azov Brigade. Hryntsevych previously defended Azovstal in Mariupol, captured by Russia in May 2022, and was held in a prison colony for over four months before being released in September 2022. He founded the Contact 12 special forces group and served as a platoon commander.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced government support for President Zelensky’s draft decree to establish a new branch of the Armed Forces dedicated to unmanned systems. This initiative aims to enhance Ukraine’s military capabilities amid rising threats from Russia. The Unmanned Systems Forces will focus on improving drone operations, forming specialized units, enhancing training, standardizing usage, increasing production, and fostering innovation. Drones play a vital role in Ukrainian warfare, serving various functions such as reconnaissance, airstrikes, naval strikes, and artillery guidance. Deputy Minister Hanna Hvozdiar stated in March that Ukraine has the capacity to produce up to 150,000 drones monthly, with a potential to reach 2 million drones by year-end.
On May 5, a man of draft age died at the Saksahanskyi military enlistment office in Kryvyi Rih due to a rapid health deterioration, reported by the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast military recruitment center. He showed signs of an epileptic seizure and received first aid before his death, deemed natural by police. Law enforcement is investigating. This incident follows several cases of alleged abuses by enlistment officials since Ukraine’s mobilization after the 2022 Russian invasion. Ukraine recently updated laws to increase mobilization efforts, including penalties for draft evasion and lowering the minimum draft age to 25.
Ukraine’s Allies
Leaders from Spain, Belgium, Latvia, and Finland confirmed their attendance at the June 15-16 peace summit in Switzerland, centered on Ukraine’s 10-point peace formula proposed by President Zelensky. They discussed cooperation and support for Ukraine, with Belgium beginning to provide F-16 jets. Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silinia accused Russia of nuclear intimidation towards summit attendees.
The Danish Foreign Ministry announced a new 250 million kroner ($33.2 million) humanitarian aid package for Ukraine, citing the country’s critical humanitarian situation. The aid includes food, medicine, water, shelter, and psychological support, prioritizing vulnerable groups like children and women. Denmark has also pledged $633 million in military support for Ukraine amid ongoing conflict.
President Zelensky announced Ukraine and Spain finalized a bilateral security agreement on May 7 after a call with Prime Minister Sanchez. Over
Romania’s president expressed openness to discussing sending a Patriot air defense system to Ukraine, following a meeting with President Biden in Washington. Klaus Iohannis stated he would consult the Supreme Defense Council regarding the matter.
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani stated that Italy supplies weapons to Ukraine solely for use within its borders. This follows UK’s comments on Ukraine’s right to strike targets inside Russia using provided weapons, met with threats from Moscow. Tajani emphasized that Italy’s support is not aimed at engaging in war with Russia. Ukraine’s Western allies have been cautious about providing arms that could be used beyond its borders. Ukraine has reportedly received long-range missiles from various allies, which it claims it only uses within its territory.
Estonia’s parliament labeled the Russian Orthodox Church as a supporter of Russian military aggression against Ukraine. Patriarch Kirill, its leader, is accused of backing Russia’s actions. The resolution emphasizes the church’s role as an institution, not its members’ rights. Estonia aims to protect religious freedom while condemning support for aggression.
The U.K., U.S., and Australia imposed sanctions on Dmitry Khoroshev, a Russian national identified as a senior leader of the cyber-crime group LockBit, announced by the U.K.’s National Crime Agency. LockBit is known for carrying out numerous ransomware attacks globally, resulting in significant financial losses. The NCA previously took control of LockBit’s services in February, leading to arrests in Ukraine. LockBit targeted thousands of victims, including over 200 Ukrainian businesses, and was responsible for a quarter of global ransomware attacks last year. The sanctions aim to disrupt LockBit’s operations and protect the public.
The EU proposed restrictions on 11 ships allegedly part of a “shadow fleet” aiding Russia in evading sanctions. If approved, these ships would be banned from EU ports and services. The “shadow fleet” consists of old, uninsured tankers helping Russia exceed oil price caps set by the EU, the U.S., and the G7 since December 2022. Additionally, the EU is considering limiting Russian LNG imports in its upcoming sanctions package, aiming to reduce dependency despite concerns about the transit contract between Ukraine and Russia ending soon.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russian officials are forcibly recruiting Ukrainian civilians into the military in occupied Kherson Oblast. Oleksandr Prokudin, head of the Kherson Oblast Military Administration, stated that Russia aims to boost its “volunteer battalions” by 10% in the region, using an electronic system to summon civilians. This action violates the Geneva Convention, which prohibits an occupying power from compelling civilians to serve in its military.
The Kremlin is tightening control over child welfare in occupied Ukraine with the help of local administrators. Maria Lvova-Belova, the Kremlin’s Children’s Rights Commissioner, met Kherson’s occupation governor Vladimir Saldo on May 2 to establish a centralized facility for children without parental care. Lvova-Belova, involved in forcibly deporting Ukrainian children, aims to create Russian-run institutions for these children, potentially enabling their forced adoption into Russian families. Such forced transfers are considered acts of genocide.
Russian occupation officials are forcing Ukrainian residents in occupied areas to obtain Russian passports, restricting their movement and access to essential services without them. Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Head Oleksandr Prokhudin revealed that officials deny medical care, pensions, aid, and employment to those without Russian passports. They also threaten to deport individuals without Russian documents and prevent them from leaving occupied Ukraine. These tactics align with earlier assessments of Russia’s forced citizenship efforts.
Russian occupation officials are using TV and radio broadcasts to tighten control over information in occupied Ukraine. On May 5, Luhansk People’s Republic Head Leonid Pasechnik met with Russian officials to discuss improving communication networks in occupied Luhansk Oblast. They plan to install “Russkiy Mir” satellite dishes to deliver Russian television channels and entertainment. This will let Russia control the media available to residents, reinforcing Kremlin propaganda. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that all Ukrainian news sources are effectively blocked in these occupied areas.
A suspected Ukrainian partisan group attacked a member of the Zaporizhia occupation administration involved in torturing Ukrainian prisoners. On May 5, Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that a car belonging to Yevhen Ananievskyi exploded in Berdyansk, killing him. Ananievskyi worked at Berdyansk Correctional Colony No. 77, where he oversaw the mistreatment of Ukrainian prisoners.
Russia News
Ukraine’s intelligence agency conducted a successful cyberattack on Russia’s 1C Company, a major software developer. The attack disrupted corporate cloud services and remote work servers in Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was inaugurated for his fifth term in a ceremony largely boycotted by Western countries due to concerns over election integrity, despite winning another six-year term in March in an election widely criticized as rigged. Most EU members and the U.S. boycotted the event, though representatives from six EU nations attended, following the EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, advising member states to avoid the inauguration. In his speech, Putin emphasized the need for strong autocratic rule, national unity, and defense against external threats, while calling vaguely for victory in Ukraine. He highlighted Russia’s historical lands and stressed overcoming obstacles, expressing willingness for dialogue with the West but criticizing Western efforts to restrain Russia. Russian ultranationalists hailed the start as historic, referring to Putin as “imperator,” a title used by Russian tsars, and anticipating significant changes in government and military leadership under his increasingly autocratic rule. Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers attended the inauguration, declaring Putin’s rule an “imperial term” and reinforcing support for his autocratic approach, underscoring a tightening grip on power. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry and the European Parliament condemned the election as illegitimate and urged non-recognition of Putin as the rightful president, yet the U.S. State Department affirmed it would still recognize him.
The Russian cabinet and Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin resigned as required by the constitution, giving President Putin two weeks to nominate a new prime minister. The ministers who return or are replaced will reveal Putin’s political priorities for his fifth term. This reshuffling will highlight whom Putin trusts and aims to create a consolidated team aligned with his objectives. Some elites are already maneuvering for key roles in the new cabinet, anticipating future opportunities. Trusted officials like Mishustin and Sergei Kiriyenko are expected to be re-appointed.
Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office labeled U.S. NGO Freedom House an “undesirable organization,” part of a broader campaign to control domestic information and restrict access to civil society groups. They accused Freedom House of supporting Ukraine against Russia and aiding “pro-Western” Russian activists. Freedom House, known for rating global political and civil rights, has consistently criticized Russia’s declining freedoms, which may have prompted this designation. The Kremlin continues to tighten its grip on information by barring Western and independent organizations. Additionally, Russia’s move to declare Freedom House “undesirable” stems from claims that the NGO promotes pro-U.S. policies, supports Russian opposition groups, and criticizes Russia’s declining democracy.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian military continues to deny Storm-Z convict personnel their veteran status, leaving them without health and financial benefits. Russian opposition outlet Astra shared a video of Storm-Z convicts from Kaluga Oblast appealing to President Putin for help after returning from fighting in Ukraine. They claim they haven’t received veteran certificates, payments for injuries, or disability benefits, and some were sent conscription notices. In March, a Krasnodar Krai court denied a convict a medical examination at a military hospital, which would have confirmed his eligibility for benefits. Appeals by Storm-Z personnel to Putin about poor treatment and lack of benefits are increasingly common.
Russia is reportedly coercing university students into working at defense factories. On May 6, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty revealed that students at St. Petersburg’s Baltic State Technical University are being forced to sign contracts with defense companies, possibly to assemble drones or other military equipment, under threat of expulsion. They will receive a salary of 60,000 rubles per month ($650). Previously, students at the Alabuga Polytechnical College in Tatarstan were compelled to produce Shahed drones.
Russian defense company Yakovlev, a subsidiary of Rostec, acquired nearly $500 million in military equipment from abroad since 2022, evading sanctions by changing its name from Irkut. They primarily purchased radar components and controllers for military aircraft. Su-30s, made by Yakovlev, are actively used by Russian forces in Ukraine. Russia lost 11 Su-30s in the conflict. The purchases began before the 2021 invasion. Western sanctions target Russian defense industry. SIPRI reports a 53% drop in Russian arms exports between 2014-2018 and 2019-2023.
Russia’s Allies
Between December 2023 and February 2024, Russia launched approximately 50 North Korean ballistic missiles at Ukraine, likely Hwasong-11 Ga missiles, as reported by the Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office. Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin revealed that nearly half of these missiles malfunctioned, exploding mid-air. Ukrainian prosecutors examined debris from 21 missiles, confirming their high failure rate. The growing relationship between Russia and North Korea, a significant weapons supplier, raises concerns for Ukraine and its allies. Furthermore, a U.N. report confirms the use of North Korean missiles in a strike on Kharkiv, Ukraine, resulting in at least one death and numerous injuries. This procurement of North Korean missiles by Russia is in violation of U.N. sanctions.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Russian ultranationalists hope Putin will deepen the anti-Western ideology that has shaped Russia’s narrative since the invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin-affiliated WarGonzo channel claims Putin ousted “globalist” elites from the Boris Yeltsin era, urging him to sever ties with the West and pursue a new domestic political course. The Kremlin is focused on conservatism, silencing dissenters, and “turning to the East” by strengthening partnerships with China, Iran, and North Korea. This anti-Western ideology will continue to shape Russia’s foreign and domestic policies.
A senior Ukrainian official told Bloomberg that Russia is increasingly using TikTok to undermine Ukraine’s morale and President Zelensky’s legitimacy, targeting May 20, a significant date in Ukraine. Russian influencers and bots dominate TikTok, exploiting its reach effectively.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com