Summary of the day: Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a Victory Day speech reiterating his view that the West aims to diminish the Soviet Union’s role in World War II, framing this perception as central to Russia’s strained relations with Western nations. He emphasized his leadership by meeting frontline commanders to reinforce his image as a knowledgeable and capable military leader. Surrounding himself with foreign officials, he presented himself as a unifying statesman against Western power structures. Meanwhile, Russia’s rhetoric intensified towards Moldova, hinting at ambitions to exert greater control over the region. On the battlefield, Russian forces made advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City but faced challenges with internal discipline, while Ukrainian forces struck key Russian oil infrastructure.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
During his May 9 Victory Day speech, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed the West is trying to undermine the Soviet Union’s role in defeating Nazi Germany during World War II. He framed Russia as a defender against Nazism, connecting the ongoing invasion of Ukraine to the Soviet fight against Nazis. Putin emphasized that Russia would resist any threats while presenting the conflict as part of Russia’s historic struggle against Nazism. He rallied support by casting Russia as both a victim of Western hostility and a leader in fighting supposed Nazi aggression.
At the Victory Day parade, President Putin stood alongside foreign leaders, including those from Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Cuba, aiming to present himself as a diplomat building an alternative coalition against Western influence. The gathering showcased a small but diverse group of countries aligning with Russia’s vision for a new multipolar world. Notably, leaders from Iran, North Korea, and China were absent, hinting that Putin is seeking to expand his international support beyond these key allies.
A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger alleged that Ukraine could incite unrest in Georgia similar to “color revolutions,” but claimed most Georgians are satisfied with Russian-Georgian economic ties.
Russian officials accused Japan of “historical revisionism” and warned against its military exercises with the U.S. near Russia’s eastern border, portraying them as a threat to Russia while likely aimed at China.
Pro-Kremlin leaders of the Moldovan Victory opposition bloc attended the Victory Day parade in Moscow, signaling the Kremlin’s intention to destabilize Moldova and undermine its democracy and EU aspirations. Invited by President Putin, the bloc’s key figures, including Ilan Shor, Yevgenia Gutsul, and Marina Tauber, are crucial to Russia’s strategy to influence Moldovan politics beyond the pro-Russian regions of Gagauzia and Transnistria. Their participation in the event emphasizes the importance of the bloc in the Kremlin’s broader efforts to prevent Moldova’s EU integration.
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused the Moldovan government of conducting “genocidal” policies against Moldovan identity by replacing the Moldovan language with Romanian, comparing their actions to the Nazi Third Reich. Her statements seem intended to justify future Russian involvement not only in the pro-Russian regions of Gagauzia and Transnistria but across all of Moldova. This shift from emphasizing the persecution of Russian speakers to targeting Moldovan language policies reflects the Kremlin’s broader efforts to frame its aggression as protection against “neo-Nazi” threats.
Russian border guards are withdrawing from most of Armenia after an agreement between President Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, following Armenia’s loss of Nagorno-Karabakh. Russian guards will remain on the borders with Turkey and Iran. Meanwhile, protests against Pashinyan’s decision to transfer control of four Tavush border villages to Azerbaijan have escalated in Yerevan’s Republic Square. Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, leading the protests, demanded Pashinyan’s resignation or threatened a parliamentary vote of no confidence. However, with Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party holding 54% of parliamentary seats, his removal would require defections from within his own party.
The Kremlin may exploit rising opposition in Armenia to punish Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for distancing from Russia. Russian state media is amplifying calls for his resignation or a vote of no confidence. A Kremlin-awarded blogger and pro-Kremlin voices have criticized Pashinyan’s “weakness” and incompetence over territorial losses to Azerbaijan. By fueling discontent and spreading these narratives, the Kremlin aims to pressure Pashinyan to repair ties with Russia.
The Kremlin is using nuclear threats via Belarus to influence Western decision-makers. Presidents Putin and Lukashenko announced that Belarusian forces would join the second phase of Russia’s nuclear exercises. Earlier, on May 7, Lukashenko ordered a joint inspection of tactical nuclear weapon carriers, while Putin instructed the Russian General Staff to prepare for exercises involving the use of tactical nuclear weapons. However, Russia and Belarus are unlikely to deploy these weapons on the battlefield.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian forces have sharply increased ground attacks in eastern Ukraine over the past month, aiming to secure gains before Western military aid reaches Ukrainian forces. The UK Ministry of Defense noted a 17% rise in Russian attacks from March to April, with over 75% concentrated near Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Marinka. Ukrainian military spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn attributed the surge to drying soil conditions that facilitate movement and Russia’s intent to exploit Ukraine’s current vulnerabilities. President Zelensky echoed these concerns, saying Western aid will help Ukraine counter Russia’s offensive.
The U.S. Pentagon is preventing the Russian military from using Starlink internet terminals on the battlefield in Ukraine, according to John Plumb, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy. Starlink, essential for Ukrainian operations due to its secure signals, is financially supported for Ukraine by the Pentagon through an agreement with SpaceX. Russia allegedly obtained Starlink terminals via “Arab countries,” but Plumb confirmed that U.S. cooperation with Ukraine and SpaceX has effectively blocked Russia’s illicit use. SpaceX has been a reliable partner for Ukraine since the start of Russia’s invasion, providing around 42,000 terminals across Ukraine’s military and aid organizations.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces continued offensive efforts along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, but no changes to the frontline were confirmed. Russian sources claimed advances in several areas near Synkivka, Berestove, and Novoselivske, but no visual evidence supports these reports. Fighting was reported northeast of Kupyansk, southeast of Kupyansk near Ivanivka and Berestove, and in areas around Svatove and Kreminna, including Torske and the Serebryanske forest area.
Russian forces maintained ground attacks near Siversk, northeast of Bakhmut, but made no confirmed progress. Russian sources claimed advances near Rozdolivka and Vesele, though this remains unverified. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks near Verkhnokamyanske and Vyimka. Russian forces are active near Spirne and Vesele, with reports of thermobaric artillery strikes against Ukrainian positions.
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar but made no confirmed advances. They launched ground attacks in eastern Chasiv Yar, as well as near Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Stupochky. Russian sources claim an expansion of control in eastern Chasiv Yar and increasing pressure on its southern and eastern flanks. Ukrainian observer Kostyantyn Mashovets suggested that Russia’s Southern Grouping is regrouping for a renewed push toward Chasiv Yar. He noted that Russian troops may attempt to bypass Chasiv Yar by advancing south to Stupochky-Bila Hora, aiming to reach Kostyantynivka from the south. Despite having up to 15 motorized rifle brigades in the area, most are reportedly under-strength, with only two combat-ready battalions each.
Russian forces advanced west of Avdiivka with geolocated footage showing Russian forces moving into central Umanske. Some Russian sources claimed they have seized all of Umanske, but there is no evidence of further progress in the area. Russian forces were also reported near Novopokrovske and in fields near Netaylove and Pervomaiske. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces claimed to have destroyed three tanks, a BMP-3, and an MT-LB in the Avdiivka region, while Russian forces were seen operating near Yasnobrodivka.
Russian forces made advances west of Donetsk City, securing gains in eastern Krasnohorivka along Tchaikovsky Street. Russian sources also reported progress along 1st of May Street and towards Solnechnyi Microraion. Ukrainian spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn stated that Ukraine still holds Krasnohorivka but noted that Russian forces are using small infantry units to attack its eastern edges. Continued fighting was reported near Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, Paraskoviivka, and northeast of Vuhledar.
Russian sources reported that Russian forces are advancing in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border region, claiming to have pushed 1.15 kilometers forward near Urozhaine and reached the southern edge of Staromayorske after intense fighting. Although there is no visual confirmation yet of their presence in Staromayorske, Russian forces have been observed advancing into Urozhaine along route T0518.
Russian forces reportedly advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast, specifically in and around Robotyne, but no confirmed frontline changes were observed. Russian sources claim forces moved in central Robotyne and to its north, using motorcycles to transport troops. Positional skirmishes continued northwest of Verbove.
The Ukrainian General Staff announced that Ukrainian forces repelled several Russian attacks near Krynky on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast.
Ukrainian Civilian Victims Of War
The casualty count of Ukrainian civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 2 INJURIES: 10
- A Russian attack on the Nikopol district in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on May 9 killed two people and injured eight others, Governor Serhii Lysak reported. Nikopol city was hit hardest, with a 62-year-old man and a 65-year-old woman among the casualties. Two girls aged 15 and 16 and two men aged 39 and 67 were also injured. Russian forces used artillery, rocket launchers, and drones in over 20 attacks throughout the day. The assault damaged eight high-rise buildings, 25 private homes, and various facilities, including a kindergarten, fire station, and bank. Power lines, gas pipelines, and at least 30 greenhouses were also affected. Russian forces also targeted the communities of Marhanets, Pokrovske, Chervonohryhorivka, and Myrove. In Myrove, a private home and power lines were damaged.
- Russian attacks on Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast injured a man and a woman.
The aftermath of a Russian attack on the Nikopol distric
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a mid-sized Shahed drone attack against Ukraine, sending 20 drones from Crimea’s Cape Chauda. Ukrainian air defenses destroyed 17 drones over Odesa Oblast, while one struck and destroyed a cultural building in Mykolaiv Oblast. Major Ilya Yevlash, a Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson, clarified that recent modifications to Russia’s Kh-101/102 cruise missiles aim to increase damage rather than make them harder to intercept.
Two Ukrainian hydroelectric power plants were decommissioned after Russia’s widespread attack on May 8, state-owned Ukrhydroenergo reported. The assault targeted energy infrastructure across Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, and Vinnytsia oblasts. Equipment damage requires substantial repairs. Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko confirmed electricity generation and transmission facilities in these regions were hit. DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy firm, said three thermal power plants were also damaged. Ukraine’s Air Force intercepted 39 of 55 missiles and 20 of 21 drones launched. Moscow has recently intensified missile and drone strikes on critical infrastructure.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law extending martial law and general mobilization from May 14 to August 11. The Ukrainian parliament approved the 90-day extension on May 8, following Zelensky’s proposal. Martial law, initially declared at the start of Russia’s invasion in February 2022, prevents men aged 18-60 from leaving Ukraine. This measure has been repeatedly extended and was previously set to expire on May 14. In April, parliament updated mobilization rules to bolster the armed forces.
Ukraine aims to start EU accession talks in June, with a target to join the European Union by 2030. The European Commission recommended launching negotiations with Ukraine in November 2023, requiring four reforms. EU Parliament President Roberta Metsola wants the framework set by mid-2024, before Hungary takes over the EU Council presidency in July. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal hopes to expedite the process. President Zelensky met European Council President Charles Michel and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who will attend Ukraine’s peace summit in June.
Ukraine can repel Russia’s offensive if allies boost weapon supplies, President Volodymyr Zelensky said. Speaking in Kyiv alongside European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, Zelensky emphasized putting “maximum pressure” on partners to increase support. “If weapon deliveries rise, we can halt Russian forces in the east,” he added. The press conference was interrupted by an air raid alert, highlighting Russia’s disregard for peace. NATO military chief Rob Bauer stressed continued military aid is crucial but warned of dwindling stockpiles as the war drags on.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine’s parliament approved a draft law that increases fines for draft evasion to enhance mobilization efforts in 2024. The penalty for failing to register or update information with conscription offices rose from Hr 3,400 ($86) to Hr 5,100 ($130). Repeat violations will now cost Hr 25,500 ($647). Men who refuse draft summons face fines of Hr 25,000 ($634), while officials may be fined up to Hr 59,000 ($1,500). The law will take effect a month after President Zelensky signs it.
Slovak border police reported that the number of Ukrainian men fleeing into Slovakia to avoid conscription more than doubled in early 2024 compared to 2023. From January to April 2024, 338 men were detained and released, up from 166 in the same period last year. In the first week of May alone, 45 men were captured, compared to just four the previous year. Ukraine is tightening its conscription laws and increasing penalties to boost mobilization. Over 30 men have died attempting to cross the western border, often abandoned by smugglers after paying high fees. The State Border Guard Service has uncovered about 450 smuggling networks since the invasion began.
Ukraine’s Allies
Sweden will allocate 28 million euros to bolster Ukraine’s defense, the Swedish Defense Ministry announced. Of this, 18 million euros will support three coalitions via the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, while 10 million euros will go to NATO’s Ukraine fund. Defense Minister Pal Jonson said these funds will improve Ukraine’s drone capabilities, mine clearance, and navy. Sweden’s Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom emphasized NATO’s need to step up support against Russia, calling for decisive action to counter irresponsible nuclear threats and protect sovereignty.
Germany will purchase three HIMARS rocket launchers from the U.S. for Ukraine, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced. These systems, renowned for their precision and mobility, will bolster Kyiv’s ability to strike Russian forces. HIMARS rockets have a range of over 70 km and can effectively target enemy sites while quickly repositioning. They have played a pivotal role since their deployment to Ukraine, enabling accurate strikes on key targets behind enemy lines.
Germany will provide Ukraine with a 45-million-euro ($48 million) grant for energy restoration, the Ukrainian Energy Ministry announced. The funds will support the “Improving the efficiency of electricity transmission” project to help modernize, automate, and reconstruct energy substations amid Russian attacks on critical infrastructure. Germany’s Development Bank KfW will work with Ukraine’s state-owned energy operator Ukrenegro to allocate the grant, which will enhance transmission system stability. Recent Russian missile and drone strikes have severely damaged Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, leading to electricity supply limitations and highlighting the urgency of the restoration efforts.
A Slovak fundraising campaign, “Ammunition for Ukraine,” raised 4 million euros ($4.3 million) to buy 2,692 shells for Ukraine, the Czech News Agency reported. Over 65,000 donors contributed to the campaign, which began on April 16 after the Slovak government refused to support the Czech-led initiative. The shells, sourced from Czech manufacturer STV Group, should reach Ukraine by the end of summer. Despite Prime Minister Robert Fico’s skepticism, organizers see this as proof of Slovak solidarity.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis suggested training Ukrainian troops within Ukraine could be more practical than training abroad. In an interview with The Guardian, he emphasized the importance of a coalition for this initiative and noted that Lithuania’s parliament has already authorized its troops to train in Ukraine. Landsbergis stated that Western trainers could be protected with air defense, which would also secure parts of Ukraine’s airspace. He believes this would show Russia the West can adapt to worsening conditions. His proposal aligns with French President Emmanuel Macron’s earlier statements supporting the potential deployment of Western troops to Ukraine if necessary.
The first shipment of ammunition under a Czech-led initiative, supported by several allied countries, will reach Ukraine in June, Czech President Petr Pavel stated on May 8. The shipment includes 180,000 shells, with additional contracts set for hundreds of thousands more. The initiative aims to deliver up to 1.5 million rounds to Kyiv. Pavel noted that Western caution has led to long delays in supplying weapons, which may have worsened Ukraine’s situation. He emphasized the urgency of providing assistance quickly to prevent further territorial and human losses.
Russia News
Ukraine’s State Security Service (SBU) launched long-range drone strikes targeting Russian oil infrastructure in Krasnodar Krai and Bashkortostan. An oil depot in Yurovka was set ablaze despite Russian air defenses intercepting six drones, while a Gazprom refinery in Salavat was also struck, damaging a building and a catalytic cracking unit. These facilities supply fuel to Russian forces in Crimea. This attack marks the first time Ukraine has targeted Bashkortostan, around 1,500 km from Ukraine’s border. The SBU remains committed to limiting Russia’s wartime capabilities with similar long-range strikes. Despite U.S. concerns about potential global energy disruptions, President Zelensky defended Ukraine’s right to retaliate against Russian oil infrastructure.
Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov claimed a Ukrainian air strike injured eight people in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast on May 9. He also reported damage to 34 apartments, a house, and 37 vehicles in Belgorod city, with further damage to homes and vehicles in a nearby village. Ukraine has not commented, and the claims remain unverified. Belgorod Oblast, bordering Ukraine, is allegedly used as a base for Russian missile strikes.
During a meeting with frontline commanders, President Vladimir Putin emphasized his role as a decisive leader knowledgeable about the battlefield. He discussed expanding drone production and reorganizing military units to address challenges in Ukraine. Putin highlighted Russia’s seizure of Berdychi as a success while presenting himself as deeply involved in problem-solving. This meeting was likely staged to enhance his reputation as an engaged Supreme Commander-in-Chief, connecting his leadership to the legacy of Soviet military commanders.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian forces are facing internal discipline issues, with reports of soldiers killing their own. Opposition outlet Astra revealed that a Russian soldier is accused of killing his commander and is detained in occupied Zaitseve, Luhansk Oblast. Another soldier reportedly murdered six comrades near Oleksandrivka in Donetsk Oblast on May 4. The accused belongs to the 10th Tank Regiment, known for including penal recruits and volunteer battalions.
According to Dutch open-source group Oryx, Russia has lost at least 15,724 vehicles and weapons systems in Ukraine from February 24, 2022, to May 8, 2024. Confirmed losses include over 3,000 tanks, nearly 4,000 infantry fighting vehicles, and 137 helicopters. These losses are likely higher than what has been visually verified.
Russia’s Allies
During a meeting in Budapest on May 9, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban expressed support for the “Chinese peace plan” after meeting with President Xi Jinping. The 12-point plan, released in February 2023, was criticized by Western leaders for favoring Russia. Orban emphasized Hungary’s call for an immediate ceasefire and support for the Chinese initiative. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has introduced a 10-point peace plan, calling for a full Russian withdrawal. He invited Orban to a peace summit in June, while Ukrainian officials continue discussions to include China, despite U.S. doubts that Beijing will accept Ukraine’s proposal.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Russian Security Council Deputy Chair Dmitry Medvedev reiterated Kremlin narratives linking “neo-Nazism” in Ukraine and the West to justify Russia’s war in Ukraine and broader geopolitical ambitions. He claimed the conflict was Russia’s “first step” in eradicating global Nazism and restructuring international relations, accusing Western nations of fueling neo-Nazis who want to “erase Russia from the map.” Medvedev omitted any mention of the Soviet Union’s brief alliance with Nazi Germany in the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com