Russian Forces Advance 4.5 Miles (7 km) Towards Kharkiv Capturing Hlyboke – Day 808 (May 11, 2024)

Summary of the day: Russian forces made confirmed advances in several key areas, including northern Kharkiv Oblast, near Svatove, Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City. Troops also advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast and east bank Kherson Oblast. These movements suggest strategic aims to create a buffer zone along the international border, potentially aiming to protect Belgorod City. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces conducted successful drone strikes against a Russian oil refinery in Volgograd Oblast, showcasing their ability to retaliate against Russian targets.

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Picture Of The Day

A firefighter spraying water on a destroyed building

Description automatically generatedThe aftermath of a Russian attack against Vovchansk

Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is intensifying information operations targeting the Baltic States, justifying potential future Russian aggression. Director Sergei Belyaev echoed statements by MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova, alleging persecution of Russian “compatriots” in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, citing police brutality, and claiming Russian diplomatic missions face “siege conditions.”

Poland is reinforcing its eastern border with Belarus due to increasing hybrid warfare and illegal migration, according to Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Tensions between Poland and Belarus have heightened amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Belarus has been accused of pushing migrants into Poland to pressure the EU, which Belarus denies. Meanwhile, Latvia has begun constructing an anti-tank ditch along its borders with Russia and Belarus as part of a joint Baltic defense initiative. The Baltic states are enhancing security measures in response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

Czech President Petr Pavel emphasized the need for Europe to establish clear boundaries with Russia to ensure peace and prosperity. He stated that Russia’s ambition to restore its superpower status poses a threat to European security. Pavel warned against accepting Russia’s goals and advocated for Europe to prepare for long-term confrontation. He noted that peace talks with Russia could be possible if Moscow realizes military victory in Ukraine is unattainable. However, direct negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow have been limited, with Russia not invited to the upcoming peace summit in Switzerland. Peace talks may not occur until the second half of 2025, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence.

Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine

Ukraine’s 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade reported shooting down a Russian Su-25 fighter jet on May 11, although the location wasn’t specified. The brigade operates in the Avdiivka direction in Donetsk Oblast, where intense fighting occurs. The downed Su-25 provides close air support for Russian troops in Donetsk, following Moscow’s shift in focus from Avdiivka to Chasiv Yar.

A map of ukraine with different colored areas

Description automatically generated

Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None

Russian forces initiated offensive operations along the Russian-Ukrainian border in northern Kharkiv Oblast, making significant gains in less defended areas. They resumed offensive operations north of Lyptsi, focusing on Hlyboke, where they advanced to the outskirts and later seized the settlement. Geolocated footage shows Russian forces seizing Morokhovets and Oliinykove. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults west of Vovchansk near Ohirtseve and Hatyshche. Russian claims of seizing several settlements are assessed to be accurate by Institute for the Study of War (ISW), including Strilecha, Pylna, and Borisivka. However, ISW hasn’t observed evidence supporting Russian claims of further advances at this time. Lt. Col. Nazar Voloshyn of the Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces noted that Russian forces are attempting to advance in contested “grey zones,” where Ukrainian positions may not be fortified. It’s improbable that Ukrainian forces established strongholds in these areas. Russian forces may encounter stronger resistance as they approach larger settlements like Lyptsi and Vovchansk, with the proximity of Kharkiv City heightening the significance of their tactical gains.

Russian forces aim to isolate the battlespace east of the Siverskyi Donets River and seize Vovchansk. Recent strikes targeted bridges, likely to impede Ukrainian forces’ movements. The focus on Vovchansk suggests a strategic aim rather than bypassing the settlement. Russian forces heavily bombard the area, potentially aiming to pressure Ukrainian defenses and draw away units from other areas. However, advancing further south of Vovchansk presents logistical challenges for Russian forces.

The limited Russian offensive in northern Kharkiv Oblast suggests US aid hasn’t altered Putin’s strategy, with Russian forces attacking with less strength than planned, potentially risky. They advance in areas not directly threatening Kharkiv City, likely aiming to hold ground for future operations, which may hinder Ukrainian counteroffensives. Ukrainian forces must disrupt Russian plans by launching counteroffensives to reclaim occupied territory, as emphasized by ISW. They stress the urgency of contesting Russian initiatives to prevent them from controlling future attacks, noting that remaining defensive risks perpetual Russian advances. Providing Ukraine with Western support is crucial for future counteroffensives and challenging Putin’s beliefs about Ukraine’s capabilities.

Russian forces involved in the new offensive operation targeting Kharkiv Oblast are contained and have not advanced further, Ukraine’s military said on May 11. Speaking to national TV, Nazar Voloshyn, the spokesperson of the Khortytsia group of forces, said Moscow’s troops were being held back in the so-called “gray zone,” border settlements that lie along the oblast’s border with Russia. “The enemy is contained in the gray zone, and it is not expanding,” he said. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults west of Vovchansk near Ohirtseve and Hatyshche. Russian claims of seizing several settlements are assessed to be accurate by Institute for the Study of War (ISW), including Strilecha, Pylna, and Borisivka. However, ISW hasn’t observed evidence supporting Russian claims of further advances at this time. It remains to be seen if the Russian offensive is a limited action or the prelude to a larger attack on the city of Kharkiv itself.

Russian forces advanced along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Geolocated footage shows movement near Kolomyichykha. There are reports of fighting in various locations, including near Synkivka, Vilshana, Ivanivka, and Berestove. Ukrainian forces targeted an oil depot in Rovenky, Luhansk Oblast on May 10, causing significant damage.

Ukrainian forces successfully defended against Russian assaults in the Siversk direction.

Russian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar. Geolocated footage shows movements north and south of the T0504 highway. Fighting also occurred in surrounding areas. Russian units, including Spetsnaz and artillery brigades, are reportedly involved in the operations.

Russian forces advanced west of Avdiivka. Geolocated footage confirms movements within central Netaylove and south of the settlement. Fighting also persisted in surrounding areas northwest and west of Avdiivka.

Russian forces advanced west of Donetsk City. Geolocated footage confirms movements in southern Krasnohorivka. Fighting also continued near Heorhiivka to the west and Pobieda to the south of Donetsk City.

Ukrainian forces defended against Russian ground attacks near Staromayorske and Urozhaine, south of Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces remain active near Vuhledar.

Russian forces made slight advances southwest of Novopokrovka in western Zaporizhia Oblast. A Russian milblogger claimed Russian airborne forces seized positions northwest of Verbove. Fighting persisted near Robotyne.

Russian forces marginally advanced in the east bank of Kherson Oblast. Geolocated footage showed movement within Krynky. A milblogger claimed that Russian forces recaptured Nestryha Island, but this hasn’t been confirmed. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attempts to land on the island.

Ukrainian Civilian Victims Of War

The casualty count of Ukrainian civilians in the past 24 hours:

DEATHS: 4 INJURIES: 4

  • Russian forces attacked the Vovchansk community in Kharkiv Oblast, using aerial bombs, rocket launchers, artillery, and drones, resulting in two civilian deaths and two injuries, as reported by Governor Oleh Syniehubov. Vovchansk, situated about five kilometers from the Russian-Ukrainian border, faced heavy strikes amid new Russian offensive operations in the north of Kharkiv Oblast on May 10. The attacks included bombings of residential areas, with more than 20 KAB guided aerial bombs dropped throughout the day.
  • A Russian missile strike hit the outskirts of Sumy, killing a woman approximately aged 37, according to the regional military administration. The attack targeted local infrastructure, with no further details provided. Overnight, Russia attacked nine communities in Sumy Oblast, resulting in one death and two injuries.Bottom of Form

Ukraine News

Russian forces launched missile strikes in Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense intercepted a Russian cruise missile near Kryvyi Rih, while Sumy City suffered damage from another missile strike. Russian footage claimed to show an Iskander ballistic missile hitting a Ukrainian airfield near Manvelivka.

Ukraine’s Allies

Ukraine received emergency electricity aid from Poland, Romania, and Slovakia due to power shortages following Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure, according to the Energy Ministry. This followed Russia’s fifth large-scale attack on May 8, targeting Ukraine’s power network in central and western regions. While nationwide blackouts were avoided, Kharkiv Oblast residents and Kryvyi Rih industries faced restrictions. Industrial energy use was curbed from May 10 evening to May 11 morning, with a predicted shortage on May 11, urging consumers to limit usage from 5 p.m. to 10 p.m. Ukraine anticipates further aid from neighboring countries. The emergency supply constituted less than 1% of daily electricity consumption.

Latvia plans to supply Ukraine with drones and radar systems, as announced by Ukraine’s ambassador to Latvia, Anatolii Kutsevol. This increase in military-technical cooperation aims to enhance Ukraine’s defense capabilities. Latvia, a staunch supporter of Ukraine, allocates a portion of its GDP for military aid. The recent aid package includes anti-aircraft guns and surveillance systems. This aid strengthens the relationship between Latvia and Ukraine amid the ongoing conflict with Russia.

Canada will join the global peace summit for Ukraine in Switzerland on June 15-16, according to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The summit aims to discuss peace initiatives, including President Zelensky’s 10-point plan. Trudeau expressed Canada’s commitment to achieving lasting peace in Ukraine alongside other world leaders. Over 160 countries have been invited to participate in the summit, where they will work on a unified approach to address the conflict and present it to Russia.

The U.S. State Department approved an emergency sale of three HIMARS rocket systems to Ukraine, valued at $30 million. Germany will fund the purchase, with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius confirming Berlin’s commitment to provide three systems to Kyiv. The sale bypasses congressional review due to a declared national security emergency. The HIMARS system, known for its mobility and firepower, enhances Ukraine’s defense capabilities against Russian aggression. It forms part of ongoing U.S. military aid to Ukraine, including previous shipments of HIMARS systems and ammunition.

Russia News

a large-scale Ukrainian attack hit Belgorod and its surrounding region, causing damage and casualties, claimed regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov. Ukraine typically does not comment on such reported attacks. Gladkov reported a missile attack alert around 8:15 p.m. local time, with footage showing burning cars and smoke over Belgorod soon after. One woman was killed, and 29 people, including a child, were injured and hospitalized. Damage was reported in nearby Dubovoye village. The governor did not specify the cause of damage or casualties. Belgorod Oblast borders Ukraine’s Sumy, Kharkiv, and Luhansk oblasts, often used as a launching ground for cross-border missile strikes.

Ukrainian forces reportedly carried out drone strikes on a Lukoil refinery in Volgograd Oblast, damaging oil processing facilities. Ukrainian sources claim the strikes targeted AVT-1 and AVT-6 facilities, damaging control cables. Volgograd Oblast Governor denied infrastructure damage from an intercepted drone. This marks the second reported drone strike on the refinery, with the first occurring on February 3 by Ukraine’s Security Service.

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin presented new government proposals to the State Duma. The suggestions include appointing Dmitry Patrushev as Deputy Prime Minister and Roman Starovoit as Minister of Transport. Mishustin proposed Denis Manturov as First Deputy Prime Minister, with Anton Alikhanov replacing him as Minister of Industry and Trade. Notably, Dmitry Patrushev is the son of Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, reflecting recent appointments of individuals connected to Putin’s inner circle.

Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base

The Russian Ministry of Defense praised the 26th Tank Regiment for its actions in Kharkiv Oblast and the 132nd Motorized Rifle Brigade for its role in Donetsk Oblast.

Former Wagner Group members face delays in receiving veteran certificates upon returning to Russia, with over 200 individuals affected. They cite bureaucratic hurdles and lack of official documents as reasons for the delay.

Russian Narrative and Propaganda

During an interview marking the 10th anniversary of the DNR’s founding, Denis Pushilin, head of the Donetsk People’s Republic, echoed Kremlin narratives supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Pushilin stated Russia must seize several cities, including Kharkiv and Odesa, to “liberate” Russian people. He claimed Putin ordered strikes against Ukraine’s energy grid be avoided but advocated for intensifying strikes on bridges and transportation hubs. Pushilin praised Putin’s involvement in occupied Ukraine and deemed the pace of Russian operations in Donetsk Oblast “adequate.”

Source Materials

Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com

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