Summary of the day: Ukrainian forces are stabilizing the situation along the northern border in Kharkiv Oblast, with the tempo of Russian offensive operations decreasing. Despite this, Russian forces have executed and taken civilians captive in Vovchansk. Ukrainian forces successfully conducted drone strikes against a Russian defense plant in Tula City. Russian missile strikes have caused long-term damage to Ukrainian energy infrastructure, leading to repeated blackouts. Additionally, reports indicate senior Russian Ministry of Defense officials are competing for the position of Chief of the General Staff.
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Picture Of The Day
Two girls in vyshyvankas pose for a photo in Kyiv on May 16, 2024. Vyshyvanka Day celebrates Ukrainian folk traditions, particularly the creation and wearing of ethnic embroidered clothes known as vyshyvankas. (Yan Dobronosov/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
The EU will freeze Georgia’s membership bid if it enacts the controversial “foreign agents” law, according to a Financial Times report on May 15. The law, passed by Georgia’s parliament on May 14, requires organizations receiving foreign funding to be labeled as “foreign agents,” similar to Russian legislation. This has sparked widespread protests and criticism from the EU and the U.S., with the latter warning it may “fundamentally reassess” its relationship with Georgia. Kremlin and Georgian officials allege that the West is behind the protests to overthrow the government, accusing Iceland, Lithuania, and Estonia of hostile actions. Russian Federation Council Vice Speaker Konstantin Kosachev supports these claims, which align with Kremlin narratives about Western interference. Protests against the bill have been violently suppressed by police using tear gas, water cannons, and rubber bullets. The European Parliament has condemned the law, stating that EU accession talks should not proceed while the law is in place.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Russia launched a satellite on February 5, 2022, as part of developing a nuclear anti-satellite weapon, likely preparing for a future confrontation with NATO. This launch occurred 19 days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. U.S. officials stated the satellite, named Cosmos-2553, does not currently carry a nuclear weapon but includes components for a system aimed at destroying satellites in low Earth orbit, targeting areas with many U.S. government and commercial satellites, including SpaceX’s Starlink. The U.S. House Intelligence Committee warned of a serious security threat from Russia, believed to involve plans to place a nuclear weapon in space. President Joe Biden confirmed the development but stated it does not endanger people on Earth. Critics argue that Russia’s nuclear threats are intended to intimidate the West rather than signal genuine plans.
The Moldovan parliament approved a referendum on October 20 regarding the country’s accession to the EU. This date coincides with the presidential election. The European Council agreed to open accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova last December, and Moldova has been moving closer to Europe, despite Kremlin attempts to destabilize it. President Maia Sandu, a pro-European leader, condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and seeks to distance Moldova from Russian influence. The referendum will ask voters if they support introducing European integration into Moldova’s Constitution. Pro-Russian opposition parties, including the new “Victory” bloc, oppose Sandu’s EU bid. Tensions between Moscow and Chisinau have risen, with fears of the war spilling into Moldova. Moldovan intelligence has warned of a Russian campaign to destabilize Moldova and hinder its European integration.
Belarus and Iran are strengthening their bilateral relations. On May 16, Major General Valery Revenko of the Belarusian Ministry of Defense met with Iranian military attaché Captain Reza Khosravi Moghadam in Belarus. They discussed international and regional security and furthering military cooperation. Belarus and Iran have previously pursued increased military, economic, and technical cooperation, which likely benefits Russia through the Union State framework.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian forces are using fixed-wing drones for deep reconnaissance in Ukraine due to Ukraine’s shortage of air defense interceptors. This has allowed Russian drones to freely scout areas, including Kharkiv City, aiding their military operations. Ukraine’s dwindling supply of surface-to-air missiles forces difficult choices between protecting critical infrastructure and frontline areas. Previously, Ukraine effectively limited Russian reconnaissance, but now they need more Western air defense interceptors to counter these drone operations and support their defenses.
On the night of May 15 to 16, Ukrainian forces conducted ATACMS and drone strikes against occupied Crimea. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have destroyed five ATACMS missiles, two Ukrainian drones over Crimea, and 11 naval drones in the Black Sea. Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces used aerial and naval drones to distract Russian defenses before launching ATACMS missiles, which were downed over Belbek Airfield. Ukrainian strikes reportedly hit the airfield, causing hours of secondary detonations. Satellite imagery indicated at least three missile strikes at Belbek, destroying two MiG-31s, one Su-27, and damaging one MiG-29.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Ukrainian forces are stabilizing the situation in Kharkiv Oblast, reducing the pace of Russian offensives and preventing them from establishing a foothold in Vovchansk. President Zelensky emphasized the need for more air defense systems to protect Kharkiv City from Russian airstrikes. Meanwhile, Russian forces in northern Kharkiv Oblast are facing significant losses and a decreased pace in their operations. NATO’s top commander in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, stated that Russian forces lack the numbers and capability for a strategic breakthrough. He echoed Zelensky’s remarks that the situation is “difficult” but “under control,” noting that while Russia can make local advances, they lack the skill for significant gains. Cavoli also confirmed close contact with Ukrainian commanders and acknowledged Russia’s significant losses in the area.
Russian forces seized Lukyantsi (northeast of Lyptsi) and advanced closer to Lyptsi during continued offensive operations. Geolocated footage from May 15 confirmed Russian advances south of Lukyantsi. Additional footage from today shows Russian forces moving closer to Lyptsi from the northeast. Russian sources claim advances of up to 1.2 kilometers near Hlyboke, although further gains have not been confirmed. Russian offensive operations continue near Pylna, Lukyantsi, Hlyboke, and Lyptsi.
Russian forces advanced in northern Vovchansk, capturing the Vovchansk Central District Hospital and moving along Taras Shevchenka and Korolenka Streets. They also made gains in northeastern Starytsa, west of Vovchansk, and claimed up to three kilometers of advancement within Vovchansk, nearing the cemetery and Aggregate Plant. Despite these advances, Ukrainian troops thwarted Russia’s attempt to gain a foothold in Vovchansk. Following a new offensive with 30,000 Russian troops on May 10, Ukrainian forces stabilized the situation by May 15, partially pushing out Russian troops and decreasing their activity. Ukrainian units continue combat missions in Vovchansk’s northern outskirts, keeping Russian soldiers under control. Evacuations from Vovchansk are ongoing, with Russian troops using drones to target civilian and police vehicles, according to Serhii Bolvinov of the Kharkiv Oblast police. The Ukrainian General Staff reported continued Russian offensives near Starytsya, Pletenivka, and Vovchansk.
Russian forces have executed and detained civilians in Vovchansk, preventing evacuations and holding captives in basements, according to Ukrainian Internal Affairs Minister Ihor Klymenko. One civilian was killed for attempting to flee. These actions are considered war crimes and reflect ongoing atrocities by Russian forces in occupied Ukrainian territories. The UN has documented numerous cases of such executions, highlighting a pattern of brutality by Russian troops.
Russian forces advanced southeast of Kupyansk amid ongoing fighting along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Geolocated footage shows Russian forces advancing north of Berestove. The Ukrainian General Staff reported a Russian mechanized assault towards Berestove and that Ukrainian forces pushed Russian troops out of positions near Kyslivka. Russian forces have intensified assaults in the Kupyansk direction, suffering heavy losses. Assaults continued northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka, southeast near Pishchane, Ivanivka, and Stelmakhivka, and southwest of Svatove near Novoyehorivka and Novosadove.
Russian forces continued ground attacks near Siversk, targeting areas northeast of Bakhmut, including Spirne, Rozdolivka, and Zvanivka.
Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar without any changes to the frontline. Assaults occurred north of Chasiv Yar near Hryhorivka, in eastern Chasiv Yar, and southeast near Klishchiivka and Andriivka.
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Avdiivka with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian sources claimed advances near Solovyove and towards Yasnobrodivka, but these claims lack visual confirmation. Fighting continues in the contested area between Pervomaiske and Nevelske. Russian assaults occurred northwest of Avdiivka near Kalynove, Arkhanhelske, Novooleksandrivka, Sokil, Novopokrovske, and Solovyove; west near Umanske and Orlivka; and southwest near Netaylove and Pervomaiske.
Russian forces made a confirmed advance southwest of Marinka, near Donetsk City. Despite claims of progress towards Kostyantynivka, there is no visual confirmation. Russian forces continued their offensive west of Donetsk City near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka, and southwest near Pobieda, Novomykhailivka, Paraskoviivka, and Kostyantynivka. Additionally, they are active east of Vuhledar near Mykilske and Vodyane.
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area. Russian milbloggers claimed advances in southern Urozhaine, south of Velyka Novosilka, which is supported by confirmed Russian advances nearby. Ground attacks persisted near Staromayorske and Urozhaine. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces intensified their assaults, with 19 unsuccessful attacks near Staromayorske on May 16.
Ukrainian troops have not lost ground near Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, countering the Russian Defense Ministry’s May 15 claim of capturing the village. The Russian 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment stated they pushed Ukrainian forces from a main position in Robotyne, but heavy fighting continues. Milbloggers reported that Ukrainian forces still hold positions in the northern outskirts, making it too early to declare a seizure. General Staff spokesperson Dmytro Lykhovii confirmed increased hostilities, with four Russian attacks on the defense line near Robotyne over the past day, affirming, “We have not lost our positions.” Russian forces also continued attacks northwest of Verbove.
Russian forces continued assaults near Krynky in eastern Kherson Oblast.
Ukrainian Civilian Victims Of War
The casualty count of Ukrainian civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 7 INJURIES: 44
- A Russian attack on Kharkiv Oblast killed two women. Attacks on Chuhuiv and Hrafske injured three women aged 69, 81, and 87, while a 72-year-old woman was injured in Vovchansk. The 87-year-old woman and the 72-year-old woman later died from their injuries. Additionally, an attack damaged a dormitory, clinic, and house in Mala Danylivka, injuring four medical workers.
- Russian troops attacked Mykhailivka in Donetsk Oblast and the Beryslav district in Kherson Oblast, killing one person and injuring nine, according to prosecutors. In Mykhailivka, Smerch rocket systems injured three women and two men and damaged a local enterprise’s building and car. In the Beryslav district, a Russian attack damaged residential buildings and vehicles, killing one person and injuring four others.
- Fragments of a downed Russian missile killed two men and injured another in Dnipro. The attack damaged an infrastructure facility, an administrative building, several residential buildings, an animal shelter, a car, and a power line. Several fires were also extinguished.
- A Russian glide bomb attack on residential areas in Kherson injured 19 people. The attack damaged 12 buildings, 11 houses, and educational and medical institutions, including a kindergarten.
- Russian troops killed two people in the village of Karlivka in Donetsk Oblast.
- A Russian missile strike on Mykolaiv injured six people and damaged a residential building, cars, windows, and a shop.
- Russian attacks injured two women and one man in the Vasylivka district of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Russia reportedly fired at seven settlements 260 times.
Aftermath of Russian attacks on Kharkiv Oblast
The aftermath of Russia’s attack on Kherson Oblast
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched several missile strikes against Ukraine. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that a Russian ballistic missile hit civilian infrastructure in Mykolaiv City. The Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor’s Office stated that missiles were fired at Chuhuiv from Belgorod Oblast and that two S-300 missiles targeted Kharkiv Oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense released footage claiming an Iskander missile strike on a Ukrainian unit in Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian missile strikes have caused significant long-term damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure since March 2024, leading to frequent and unpredictable blackouts. Yurii Boiko, an advisor to Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, stated on May 16 that power outages may continue until August due to these shortages. Rolling blackouts, which began on May 15, will not affect critical infrastructure but are necessary to balance the system. The damage is severe due to precise Russian strikes, with ongoing blackouts reported in Kyiv and surrounding areas. Ukraine is receiving emergency electricity from Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. Boiko noted the early start of blackouts was due to a cold snap and increased use of heating devices, expecting a slight improvement in power supply by August or September. NOTE: One such blackout in Kyiv forced me to walk up 16 flights of stairs to my rented apartment.
President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in an ABC News interview that Ukraine cannot afford to lose Kharkiv, calling the situation “very serious” and suggesting that two additional Patriot anti-air systems could help defend the city. He noted that Russia’s new offensive, launched on May 10 with 30,000 troops, targets Kharkiv Oblast near the Russian border, focusing on Lyptsi and Vovchansk. Zelensky attributed the situation to global inaction but emphasized that the world can now help. He clarified that U.S. aid funds American jobs and manufacturing, with studies indicating that at least 31 U.S. states produce military equipment for Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Allies
The finance ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) countries will support an EU plan to use revenue from frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine, Reuters reported. The ministers will meet on May 24 to finalize details before a summit in Italy in June. Around $300 billion in Russian assets were frozen at the start of the 2022 invasion, with two-thirds held by Euroclear in Belgium. The EU plans to use profits from these assets to support Ukraine, while the U.S. has proposed outright seizure. The European Commission suggested using 90% of the funds for Ukrainian weapons and 10% for the EU defense industry, potentially providing Ukraine with 3 billion euros annually.
NATO member states are considering sending military instructors or contractors to Ukraine to train troops and assist with equipment repairs, according to the New York Times. Ukraine has requested help to train 150,000 troops closer to the front lines. However, the U.S. is hesitant due to the risk of attacks on instructors, which could trigger NATO’s collective defense clause. An alternative is continuing training in Germany and Poland, but this presents logistical challenges. Countries like Britain, Germany, and France are considering sending defense contractors to Ukraine, and the White House is reviewing its ban on U.S. contractors operating there. This debate was influenced by French President Emmanuel Macron’s comments in February about the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine if requested.
The U.S. Treasury sanctioned Russian citizens and entities involved in obtaining weapons from North Korea. With Russia’s military stocks low and production hampered by Western sanctions, North Korea has become a key supplier, providing ballistic missiles and over 3 million artillery shells. The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) targeted two Russians and three Russia-based entities for facilitating these transfers. Similar sanctions were introduced by New Zealand. The U.S. Treasury emphasized its commitment to disrupting this cooperation, highlighting previous sanctions on Slovakian national Ashot Mkrtychev and new sanctions on Rafael Anatolyevich Gazaryan and Aleksey Budnev for their roles in facilitating arms shipments.
The Danish government announced a new military assistance package for Ukraine worth 5.6 billion Danish kroner ($815 million). This 18th aid delivery includes 2.4 billion Danish kroner ($349 million) for air defense, artillery pieces, shells, and other ammunition. The package also supports future deliveries of F-16 fighter jets from Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Norway, expected to start arriving this summer. Denmark’s Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen and Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen emphasized the urgent need for continued support for Ukraine.
New Zealand announced new sanctions against 28 individuals and 14 entities supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These sanctions target those involved in transferring North Korean arms and providing Iranian military assistance to Russia. New Zealand’s Foreign Minister Winston Peters condemned the support for Russia’s military actions against Ukraine. North Korea reportedly supplies Russia with ballistic missiles and artillery shells, while Iran provides Shahed drones used in attacks on Ukrainian civilians. The sanctions also target those responsible for abducting over 19,500 Ukrainian children, with the International Criminal Court issuing arrest warrants for Russian President Putin and Children’s Rights Commissioner Lvova-Belova.
Poland’s Sejm approved amendments to the law on Ukrainian refugees, extending their protection until September 30, 2025. Poland hosts nearly 1 million Ukrainian refugees. The amendments were supported by 381 lawmakers, with 19 against and 20 abstaining. The new law allows Ukrainians to apply for a three-year temporary residence permit and includes changes to state payment programs. The “800 Plus” program provides 800 zlotys ($197) per child monthly, and the “Dobry Start” program offers a one-time 300 zlotys ($74) payment for schoolchildren, with mandatory Polish school attendance. Ukrainian pupils will have free Polish language classes for 36 months and will be exempt from the Polish language exam in the 2024-2025 school year. Financial assistance for food and accommodation will be based on agreements with local governments. The deadline for Ukrainian medical professionals to apply for practice rights was extended by four months. The bill now moves to the Senate and, if approved, will take effect on July 1.
The incoming Dutch government, led by Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV party, reaffirmed its support for Ukraine against Russian aggression. Following the November 2023 election, which saw the PVV become the largest party with 37 seats, an uneasy four-party coalition was formed with the center-right VVD and NSC, and the agrarian right-populist BBB. The coalition’s statement emphasized continued political, military, financial, and moral support for Ukraine, and highlighted the importance of NATO cooperation for international security. Despite Wilders’ previous opposition to financial aid and military support for Ukraine, the coalition has committed to increasing NATO capacity and participating in international missions. The new prime minister has yet to be confirmed, but it will not be Wilders. Under outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte, the Netherlands has been a strong ally of Ukraine, including pledging F-16 fighter jets.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico is no longer in life-threatening condition after being shot three times in an assassination attempt on May 15, according to a deputy prime minister. The attack occurred as Fico left a government meeting in Handlova. Interior Minister Matus Sutaj Estok said the assailant fired five shots. The suspect, a 71-year-old man, has been detained, and the attack is believed to be politically motivated. President-elect Peter Pellegrini condemned the attack, calling it a threat to democracy. International leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Czech President Petr Pavel, condemned the violence. Estok warned against the escalation of hatred and animosity. Fico, elected in September 2023 on a populist platform, has halted arms supplies to Ukraine but supports Ukraine’s EU accession.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces successfully conducted drone strikes on the “Basalt” weapons manufacturing plant in Tula City, which produces arms for the Russian military. While footage of the strike was published, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed they downed two drones and “Basalt” denied any hits on their facilities.
Drones and missiles struck an oil refinery and seaport in Novorossiysk, Russia, causing explosions and power outages. Residents reported at least eight explosions, with video footage capturing drone and air defense activity. The attacks targeted the Novorossiysk port, causing a fire, and hit the city’s oil infrastructure, including the Novorossiysk Fuel oil terminal and the Transneft terminal. The city lost power during the assault.
A Russian insider reported that senior officials in the Ministry of Defense are competing for the position of Chief of the General Staff, currently held by Army General Valery Gerasimov since 2012. Some favor placing Wagner-affiliated General Sergei Surovikin in the role, though other positions for him are also considered. There are three main power groups within the MoD: the “preservation group” includes Deputy Defense Ministers Ruslan Tsalikov and Viktor Goremykin; the “lockout group,” likely to resign, includes Alexander Fomin and Pavel Popov; and the “bastions” include Gerasimov and Yunus-Bek Yevkurov. This information remains unverified.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairman Andrei Kartapolov rejected a bill that would grant deferment from mobilization to certain civilians, including fathers with three children. Russian State Duma Deputy Nina Ostanina opposed the rejection, highlighting that a “large family” is defined as having three or more children. Previously, the State Duma did not adopt deferment amendments for fathers with three or more children, disabled children, or single fathers. However, they did grant deferments for fathers with four or more children under 16 to support “traditional values” and avoid discontent, while maintaining a large pool of men for mobilization.
The Sri Lankan government will send a delegation to Russia to identify and repatriate its citizens reportedly fighting for Russia in Ukraine, Reuters reported. Social media campaigns targeting ex-military personnel in Sri Lanka, promising high salaries and Russian citizenship, have led to many being recruited to fight in Ukraine. The country’s Defense Ministry has warned against these scams. Economic hardship has driven many Sri Lankans to migrate. Reports indicate around 600-800 Sri Lankans are in Russia, and 16 have died in Ukraine. Sri Lanka has launched an investigation and arrested seven people involved in the trafficking scheme.
Denis Oslomenko, General Director of Russian defense company “PPSh Laboratory,” announced that they are developing a thermal imaging system for the Russian Black Sea Fleet to repel naval drone attacks. He noted that current forces lack the necessary equipment to detect targets at night, and the new system can detect targets from over a kilometer away.
Russia’s Allies
Russian President Vladimir Putin sees China’s support as crucial for bolstering Russia’s economy and defense industry amid the war in Ukraine. Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, signing agreements to deepen cooperation in trade, agriculture, and infrastructure. Key Russian officials and businessmen joined Putin, aiming to enhance defense industry ties. Reports indicate that China supplies critical goods to Russia, such as semiconductors, which are vital for arms production. Putin seeks to reassure China to maintain and expand this essential support. During his meeting with Xi Jinping, Putin promoted Kremlin narratives about peace negotiations in Ukraine. Putin and Xi signed a joint statement supporting China’s proposed peace plan and opposing actions that prolong the war. They both called for a political settlement to the “Ukraine crisis.” However, this move is seen as an attempt by the Kremlin to undermine Western support for Ukraine and push for negotiations that compromise Ukrainian sovereignty.
Turkey and Russia are reportedly circumventing EU sanctions to export Russian oil to the EU, providing significant revenue to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. Reports from various research centers and Politico indicate that Turkey is disguising Russian oil’s origin by blending and repackaging it with a Turkish certificate of origin. Russian oil imports to Turkish ports increased significantly, as did their oil exports to the EU, suggesting this scheme. This has likely generated up to €3 billion for Russia between February 2023 and February 2024.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Russian State Duma Chairperson Vyacheslav Volodin reiterated a longstanding Russian tactic to deter the West from providing long-range weapons to Ukraine. He claimed Russia would retaliate with stronger weapons if Ukraine used Western arms to strike Russian territory. This threat is undermined by Russia’s illegal definition of Crimea and occupied Ukrainian oblasts as Russian territory, where Ukraine regularly strikes with Western weapons.
Dmitry Medvedev, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson, baselessly linked an attempted assassination of Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico to Ukraine, calling the assailant’s actions “Russophobic.” Medvedev is known for making extreme and unfounded statements as part of Russian information operations aimed at the West.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com