Summary of the day: The Kremlin continues its strategy of nuclear saber-rattling to influence Western policy decisions. Ukrainian President Zelensky noted that the limited Russian offensive in northern Ukraine aims to distract from intense operations in the east. While initially planning significant advances in northern Kharkiv, Russian command adjusted its strategy. Confirmed Russian troop advancements occurred near Vovchansk, Kreminna, Chasiv Yar, and Donetsk City. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces damaged a Russian missile ship in Sevastopol, and Russian authorities arrested Major General Ivan Popov under dubious charges, likely masking other motives.
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Picture of the Day
Firefighters rest after extinguishing a fire in a private house destroyed by a Russian drone attack in the suburbs of Kharkiv, on May 21, 2024. (Sergey Bobok/AFP via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Russia has started drills simulating tactical nuclear weapon launches, involving missile units in the Southern Military District, including occupied Ukrainian territories. Ordered by President Putin on May 6, the exercises use Iskander and Kinzhal missiles with nuclear warheads. The drills respond to what Russia claims are provocative Western statements. The U.S. condemned Russia’s “irresponsible rhetoric” but noted no change in Russia’s strategic posture. Belarus is also participating. The Kremlin aims to influence Western policies and deter support for Ukraine by conducting these exercises.
Russia unilaterally changed its maritime border with Lithuania and Finland in the Baltic Sea. The decree, prepared by the Russian Defense Ministry, aims to alter geographic coordinates near several islands and coastal areas. This decision has not been recognized internationally, and Lithuania and Finland have yet to respond. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis called the move an escalation against NATO and the EU, urging a firm response.
Russian Security Council Deputy Chair Dmitry Medvedev dismissed the upcoming peace summit in Switzerland as illegitimate and issued threats to participating countries, warning that Russia will “remember” their involvement and it will affect future relations. Medvedev’s statements were made on his English-language X (formerly Twitter) account, aiming at an international audience. Kremlin officials are expected to ramp up information operations against the Swiss peace conference, scheduled for June 15-16, 2024.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces used ATACMS missiles and drones to strike and damage a fuel warehouse in occupied Dovzhansk, Luhansk Oblast, on May 20.
Ukrainian forces likely damaged the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s Tsyklon missile ship in Sevastopol, Crimea, on May 19 using US-provided ATACMS missiles. Satellite imagery from May 20 shows damage and rescue operations at the site. The Tsyklon, which had not yet launched a missile, was reportedly the last Karakurt-class ship in Crimea. The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces confirmed the attack, which also destroyed the minesweeper Kovrovets. This has led to the withdrawal of many Russian ships to Novorossiysk.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian President Zelensky noted that the Russian offensive in northern Kharkiv is diverting attention from more intense operations in eastern Ukraine, particularly in Donbas. The situation in northern Kharkiv has stabilized, slowing Russian advances. Ukrainian troops have stabilized Kharkiv Oblast, including Vovchansk, but it remains complex. Despite Russian attempts to break through near Vovchansk, Lyptsi, and Starytsya, Ukrainian forces control about 60% of Vovchansk. The Defense Ministry confirmed Russian units had entered northern Vovchansk on May 15 but were prevented from advancing further. Over the past week, there have been 83 assaults and five armed clashes in the region.
Russian forces initially planned significant advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast but scaled back their efforts. The original strategy aimed to reach Borshchova and Pechenihy quickly. However, limited troop deployments suggest changes in these plans, with the offensive starting earlier than planned. Since May 10, Russian troops have advanced up to 10 kilometers towards Kharkiv City and seven kilometers towards Vovchansk. Approximately 35,000 Russian personnel are concentrated near the border, with plans to increase to 50,000-70,000. The offensive has so far involved limited combat power.
The Russian military likely did not expect their limited forces to achieve significant objectives in northern Kharkiv. Instead, they focused on gradual advances due to past failures. The Economist suggested these plans might have been made before realizing the Northern Grouping would be understrength. The Russian command may have launched the offensive early to exploit Ukrainian weaknesses before significant Western aid arrived.
A Ukrainian servicemember reported that Russian forces in northern Kharkiv Oblast are using “African mercenaries” in their assaults, followed by regular troops. It is unclear who these mercenaries are. A Russian blogger suggested former Wagner Group fighters might be involved, while another report mentioned the Russian MoD’s Africa Corps near Lyptsi. The Ukrainian Resistance Center noted that Russia has been recruiting from African countries. These reports suggest a mix of African nationals and former Wagner elements fighting with Russian forces in the region.
Lyptsi
Russian forces did not confirm any advances near Lyptsi, north of Kharkiv City. A Russian source claimed a small advance, but no visual evidence supports this. The Ukrainian General Staff reported increased Russian operations in the Kharkiv area following a decrease in attacks on May 20.
Vovchansk
Russian forces confirmed an advance southwest of Vovchansk, moving further into Starytsya. Geolocated footage from May 18 supports this. Russian sources claim progress of 100 to 350 meters within Vovchansk and minor crossings of the Vovcha River, but visual confirmation of significant movement south of the river is lacking. The Russian MoD stated they repelled Ukrainian counterattacks in Vovchansk and near Starytsya. Reports of attacks on Prylipka remain unconfirmed.
Around 100 Ukrainian civilians are trapped in Vovchansk, with Russian forces refusing to let them leave and threatening to shoot them. Reports indicate that Russian forces are using civilians as human shields and there have been instances of executions for attempting to escape. Authorities are investigating these war crimes.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, continuing their offensive. Geolocated footage showed Russian troops advancing southeast of Makiivka, and claims indicate a one-kilometer gain near Makiivka. They also secured positions 1.18 kilometers east of Stelmakhivka. Further offensive operations were reported northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka, northwest of Svatove near Ivanivka and Berestove, and south of Kreminna near Hryhorivka and Bilohorivka.
Russian milbloggers criticized the Russian MoD’s claim that Russian forces seized Bilohorivka on May 20. They argue that Bilohorivka remains under Ukrainian control. A Kremlin-awarded milblogger accused the military command of prioritizing political goals over battlefield effectiveness. Another milblogger, a former Storm-Z instructor, accused the MoD of lying, referencing a statement by Defense Minister Andrei Belousov emphasizing honesty.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
President Zelensky described the frontline situation in Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, and Kurakhove in Donetsk Oblast as extremely difficult. Russian forces continue pushing in Donetsk Oblast, conducting 10 to 20 daily assaults in mid-May.
Siversk
Russian sources claim marginal advances south of Siversk, but no visual evidence confirms this. Milbloggers report continued attacks by Russian Airborne Forces north of Vesele, hindered by Ukrainian drones. The Ukrainian General Staff noted Russian attacks near Rozdolivka and Vyimka. A milblogger criticized the focus on the Bilohorivka-Spirne line, citing heavy Russian losses.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces recently advanced in southern and central Klishchiivka, southeast of Chasiv Yar, and continued their offensive operations in the area. Videos show a Russian tank delivering assault groups to Klishchiivka’s southern outskirts and forces operating in central Klishchiivka. Russian sources claim control over Klishchiivka but note Ukrainian forces hold the commanding heights. Fighting continues, with some Russian forces advancing 600 meters in Klishchiivka. Russian troops also expanded positions in the nearby nature reserve and attacked areas near Chasiv Yar, including Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. Ukrainian forces maintain control over Chasiv Yar.
Avdiivka
Russian sources claimed their forces seized Netaylove, west of Avdiivka, forcing Ukrainian troops to withdraw. Elements of the Russian 9th Motorized Rifle Brigade reportedly advanced 450 meters and cleared the western part of the settlement. Fighting continued in areas around Avdiivka, including Kalynove, Novooleksandrivka, and Nevelske. The Ukrainian General Staff noted intense Russian activities near Netaylove.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces made slight advances southwest of Donetsk City, according to geolocated footage. They progressed near Novomykhailivka and Paraskoviivka, advancing 400 meters in Krasnohorivka. Attacks continued near Heorhiivka, Krasnohorivka, Pobieda, and Paraskoviivka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Positional battles continued near Staromayorske, south of Velyka Novosilka, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area.
Zaporizhia Line
Positional battles continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast with no confirmed frontline changes. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces have not seized Robotyne. Russian sources claimed advances southeast of Robotyne, but no visual evidence supports this. Fighting persisted near Robotyne and Verbove.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Positional battles continued on the east bank of Kherson Oblast with no confirmed frontline changes. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Krynky. A Kremlin-affiliated blogger denied Russian claims of seizing Krynky, stating Ukrainian forces still hold positions there. Both sides reportedly have conditional control over the Dnipro River Delta islands. Russian forces are operating under challenging conditions on these islands.
Ukrainian Civilian Victims Of War
The casualty count of Ukrainian civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 1 INJURIES: 7
- A 53-year-old man injured in a Russian strike on Lyptsi, Kharkiv Oblast, on May 17, died in the hospital. The attack, using a multiple rocket launcher, damaged a house and injured the man.
- A Russian drone dropped explosives on Antonivka in Kherson Oblast, injuring three women aged 69, 75, and 76. They were hospitalized with mine-blast and shrapnel injuries.
- Russian forces carried out an airstrike on Kherson, injuring three people. The attack targeted the Shumenskyi district, damaging a high-rise building. The injured include a 15-year-old boy and a 50-year-old woman, both hospitalized, and a 71-year-old woman who was treated on-site for a leg injury.
- Russian forces attacked 11 communities in Sumy Oblast, injuring one person and damaging energy infrastructure. In Konotop, a missile strike on industrial infrastructure injured one person, though the extent of the injuries was not specified.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched drone strikes with 29 Shahed drones, of which Ukrainian forces shot down 28 over multiple oblasts. Falling debris damaged civilian structures in Kharkiv City. A missile strike hit production infrastructure in Konotop. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated Russia uses 300 aircraft over Ukraine and reiterated the need for 120-130 advanced fighter jets for air parity.
President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in a May 20 interview that his term continues due to martial law, which was imposed after Russia’s full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022. Martial law bans presidential, parliamentary, and local elections. Critics argue his term extension is unconstitutional, but leading lawyers disagree. Zelensky emphasized the importance of unity and perseverance until victory. He also mentioned the need to adapt laws for elections under martial law and to ensure voting conditions for Ukrainians abroad and soldiers on the front lines. Recently, he extended martial law until August 11.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Over 1 million military-aged men have registered with the Rezerv+ mobile app, and 700,000 have updated their military documents. The new law, signed by President Zelensky on April 16, mandates all military-aged men update their documents within 60 days from May 18. The app allows men to update their status online, and by June 18, it will display electronic military documents as QR codes. The app saw 150,000 registrations on its first day, with updates from men in Poland, Germany, and Canada.
Over 3,000 convicts have applied for conditional release to join Ukraine’s Armed Forces. A new law allows certain convicts to serve in the military, excluding those convicted of serious crimes like murder, sexual violence, and corruption. Convicts undergo medical exams and need unit commanders’ approval before their documents are sent to court. Vysotska noted the realistic number of recruits might be 4,000-5,000, despite an initial theoretical potential of 20,000. This law aims to bolster Ukraine’s military amid ongoing conflict with Russia.
Ukraine’s Allies
Ukraine will receive its first funds from frozen Russian assets in July, the European Commission announced on May 21. Western allies froze about $300 billion in Russian assets after the 2022 invasion, with two-thirds held by Euroclear. The EU agreed to use 90% of these funds to buy weapons for Ukraine and the rest to support the EU budget. This will provide Ukraine with 2.5-3 billion euros annually, mainly for military needs, with the first bi-annual payment expected in July 2024. The U.S. proposed seizing assets outright, but the EU opted for using generated profits.
Ten Ukrainian soldiers have completed F-16 aircraft maintenance training in the Netherlands. The training covered servicing critical components like oxygen systems, helmets, and parachutes, and included assembling and testing emergency rescue packages. The Netherlands plans to deliver 24 F-16 jets to Ukraine starting this autumn. Denmark, Norway, and Belgium also pledged F-16 jets to Ukraine, and an international coalition led by Denmark, the Netherlands, and the U.S. has been training Ukrainian pilots, with the first group expected to complete U.S.-led training by summer.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and European Commission spokesperson Peter Stano affirmed their support for President Volodymyr Zelensky’s legitimacy. Zelensky’s term was extended due to martial law, preventing elections. Critics, including Russian propagandists, questioned his legitimacy. Stano and Baerbock stressed that elections are not possible under martial law and emphasized that Zelensky remains the rightful president. Baerbock criticized Russian narratives about Zelensky’s legitimacy, noting that martial law also suspends elections in other countries, including Germany. Constitutional lawyers confirm Zelensky’s extended term is legal.
Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib announced that Belgium aims to start Ukraine’s EU accession negotiations by July. The European Commission recommended talks in November 2023, and the European Council agreed in December. European Parliament President Roberta Metsola confirmed negotiations should begin by mid-2024. EU officials are urging Hungary to drop its opposition to Ukraine’s membership. Hungary, maintaining ties with the Kremlin, has opposed sanctions on Russia and obstructed EU support for Ukraine. Lahbib’s comments align with efforts to resolve this before Hungary’s EU presidency starts in July.
A bipartisan group of U.S. Congress members, led by Congressman Mike Turner, wrote to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on May 20, urging the Pentagon to allow Ukraine to strike Russian territory with U.S.-supplied weapons. The letter argues that current U.S. policy restricts Ukraine’s ability to defend itself effectively. The representatives also requested training for more Ukrainian pilots on F-16 jets and additional air defense systems, including seven more Patriot batteries. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis echoed this sentiment, calling the U.S. restriction a “mistake.”
Canada has sanctioned two individuals and six shipping firms for aiding Russia’s war against Ukraine by transporting weapons from North Korea. These entities have allegedly supplied weapons used in Ukraine over the past two years, violating international sanctions against North Korea. The sanctioned companies are linked to the Russian military and banned from financial transactions with Canadians. Since 2014, Canada has sanctioned over 3,000 individuals and entities, freezing $103 million linked to Russian nationals since February 2022. Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly condemned Russia’s cooperation with North Korea and reaffirmed Canada’s support for Ukraine.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russian authorities are forcibly deporting Ukrainian citizens, including children, to Russia and deeper into occupied Ukraine. Yevgeny Balitsky, the occupation governor of Zaporizhia Oblast, announced plans to move over 1,000 children to a camp in Berdyansk and more than 6,700 to health centers in Crimea and other Russian regions. Additionally, Russian officials organized “vacations” for Ukrainian families and deported 32 families to Moscow Oblast for a youth festival. Ukrainian Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lubinets reported that 52,673 Ukrainians, including 3,676 children, are missing since the invasion began.
Russian federal subjects are forming support networks with occupation authorities. Vladimir Saldo, the occupation head of Kherson Oblast, stated that officials met with Krasnodar Krai’s representative, Andrei Volf, on May 20 to discuss attracting businesses and providing humanitarian aid to Kherson. Saldo also mentioned that schools in occupied Kherson and the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic are continuing educational exchanges as part of “sister city” programs.
Russian exiled opposition outlet Novaya Gazeta Europe reported on May 20 that Russian authorities have nationalized 13,300 homes in occupied Ukraine, with half of these seizures occurring in 2024. Authorities claim they only seize properties from those not returning to Ukraine, but 77.5% of the seized homes are in recently occupied areas.
Russia News
Russian authorities arrested Major General Ivan Popov, former commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, on fraud charges. Popov, who defended against Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive in Zaporizhia, was detained on May 17 for allegedly selling metal intended for fortifications, worth around $1.1 million. Investigations had been ongoing for eight months. Popov had previously been fired for voicing concerns about troop needs. The Kremlin likely used Popov’s arrest to conceal the true reasons for his dismissal and to avoid public support. This arrest follows other high-profile MoD arrests, indicating a crackdown on insubordination and a preference for loyalty over competence. Some Russian milbloggers praised Popov and hoped for his return to service.
A Russian court sentenced 77-year-old physicist Anatoly Maslov to 14 years in a penal colony for treason, accusing him of sharing top-secret hypersonic missile information with Germany. Maslov, who denied the charges, is one of several scientists targeted for their involvement in Russia’s hypersonic missile program. Two colleagues, Alexander Shiplyuk and Valery Zvegintsev, were also arrested in 2022 and await trial. Despite being promoted as “super weapons,” these missiles have struggled against Western air defense systems in Ukraine.
Russian state TV network Rossiya 24 aired episodes of a purported new show with U.S. far-right commentator Tucker Carlson. However, Carlson’s team denied any involvement, calling the reports “pure nonsense.” Neil Patel, CEO of the Tucker Carlson Network, stated no deals were made with state media. Rossiya 24 aired Carlson’s past content with Russian dubbing. Carlson, known for controversial comments, interviewed Russian President Putin in February, which was criticized in the West for not challenging Putin’s claims.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
A Russian milblogger claimed that frequent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian vehicles without electronic warfare systems have created an urgent shortage of off-road vehicles. The strikes have increased the need for these vehicles to transport ammunition and evacuate the wounded. Motorcycles and ATVs are also needed for assault operations. The milblogger accused some officials of expropriating and selling vehicles and urged the Russian MoD and government to supply more vehicles, including confiscated civilian ones, to the military in Ukraine.
The Russian MoD launched the Project 22870 rescue and tugboat Mikhail Chekhov at the Zvezdochka Shipyard in Astrakhan Oblast. This is the seventh ship in its series.
A source told Dossier Center that new Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov had close ties with deceased Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin. Documents show Belousov supervised Prigozhin’s activities and discussed expanding private military companies (PMCs) under state control to enhance security. The documents highlighted the importance of PMCs amid Russia’s conflicts with the US and UK, labeling Wagner as a PMC managed by the Russian MoD.
Russia’s Allies
Russia and Belarus are advancing Union State integration. On May 20, Belarusian Deputy PM Pyotr Parkhomchik and Russian First Deputy PM Denis Manturov discussed creating a unified industrial policy and closer cooperation in machine tools, shipbuilding, and aircraft manufacturing to support Russia’s war efforts. Additionally, Viktor Nikolaikin from the Union State Parliamentary Assembly stated that both countries are developing unified property laws within the Union State framework.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpo st.com