Summary of the day: The Russian Ministry of Defense proposed reassessing Russia’s maritime borders in the Baltic Sea, though Kremlin and MoD officials later denied any plans to change these borders, suggesting instead potential “security” measures. Western officials believe this reassessment might be an attempt to revise maritime zones. UK Defense Minister Grant Shapps stated that intelligence indicates China may be providing military assistance to Russia, a claim questioned by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Ukrainian forces have recently recaptured territory near Vovchansk and Chasiv Yar, while Russian forces made marginal advances near Vovchansk, Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and Velyka Novosilka.
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Picture of the Day
Residents embrace each other after a Russian aerial attack on May 22, 2024, in Kharkiv, Ukraine. A Russian airstrike with guided aerial bombs targeted the northeastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, injuring at least 12 people. (Vlada Liberova/Libkos/Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
The Russian Ministry of Defense proposed reassessing Russia’s maritime borders in the Baltic Sea, citing outdated maps. The proposal suggested changes near several islands and deltas in the Gulf of Finland and areas in the Baltic Sea, aiming to update the 1985 borders to reflect current geographical realities. This would shift Russia’s state borders and reclassify certain waters as internal sea waters. Kremlin and Russian MoD officials denied plans to change Russia’s maritime borders but hinted at possible security measures in the Baltic Sea. They stated that Russia has no intentions of revising state borders or economic zones. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized that the proposal is not politically motivated but necessary due to increased tensions in the region. The reason for the proposal’s removal from the government’s legal portal was not explained. Western officials noted that Russia might be reassessing maritime borders in the Baltic Sea. Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen said Finland is reviewing these reports and expects Russia to follow international law. Lithuania summoned the Russian charge d’affaires, viewing Russia’s actions as provocative and threatening. Swedish Commander-in-Chief Mikael Byden expressed concern over Russian ambitions and potential reconnaissance activities in the Baltic Sea.
Russian President Vladimir Putin may be aiming for control over the Baltic Sea, including the Swedish island of Gotland, according to Swedish Armed Forces Commander Micael Byden. Byden said Putin’s goal is to dominate the Baltic Sea, noting that “who controls Gotland controls the Baltic Sea.” Gotland is strategically important, located about 330 kilometers from Russia’s Baltic Fleet headquarters in Kaliningrad. In response to the threat, Sweden has reinforced Gotland with permanent and additional deployable troops.
The Kremlin is developing a system to legalize the status of Russia’s “compatriots abroad” to justify further actions abroad. Yevgeny Primakov of Rossotrudnichestvo announced an “Electronic Card of Compatriots” program, allowing Russians abroad to access government services and apply for citizenship. This project, in development since 2021, includes plans to open certification centers for identity verification and may launch in neighboring countries by the end of 2024. The initiative aims to help compatriots maintain ties with Russia and expand educational exchanges, with a goal of 500,000 foreign students in Russia annually by 2030. The Russian Orthodox Church supports the mass repatriation of compatriots, aligning with the Kremlin’s narrative to justify future aggression under the guise of protection. Russia has eased requirements for compatriots to move to Russia, aiming to broaden this definition further.
Western officials warned that Russia plans to increase sabotage and hybrid operations against NATO countries. Norway’s security services alerted arms suppliers to heightened sabotage threats, particularly against those involved in military aid to Ukraine. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk revealed that nine suspects were arrested for acts of sabotage on behalf of Russia. Russian security services have used non-Russian nationals for sabotage in Poland, Germany, and the UK. Additionally, Tusk warned of Russian plans to smuggle migrants to Europe to create instability. Russia’s actions aim to disrupt US security assistance to Ukraine and sow discord in Europe ahead of the European Parliament elections in June 2024.
On May 16, Russia launched the COSMOS 2576 satellite, an anti-satellite weapon capable of targeting U.S. satellites in low Earth orbit, as reported by US Space Command on May 21. Pentagon Spokesperson Brigadier General Patrick Ryder confirmed that the satellite was deployed in the same orbit as a U.S. government satellite. This move, described as “troubling” by U.S. officials, heightens concerns about space-based weapons. The Kremlin has not commented. Earlier reports indicated Russia tested a space-based anti-satellite weapon with potential nuclear capabilities in 2022. Russian officials claim the satellite is for scientific research, but U.S. officials doubt this, noting that a nuclear-equipped satellite could destroy hundreds of low-orbit satellites. Russia’s actions aim to disrupt U.S. and partner satellites, preparing for potential confrontations with NATO. Last month, Russia vetoed a U.N. resolution to prevent a nuclear arms race in space.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan accused Belarus and indirectly Russia of helping Azerbaijan prepare for the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, amid worsening Armenian-Russian relations. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko admitted he discussed Azerbaijan’s potential victory with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev before the war. Pashinyan claimed at least two CSTO countries aided Azerbaijan and suggested Azerbaijan aimed to destroy Armenia. These accusations reflect Pashinyan’s ongoing criticism of Russian-Armenian relations. Pashinyan met with Iranian leaders, indicating Armenia’s interest in strengthening ties with Iran as relations with Russia decline.
Belarusian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin met with Equatorial Guinean National Defense Minister Divisional General Victoriano Bibang Nsue Okomo in Belarus to discuss bilateral military cooperation.
China sanctioned 12 American military companies and 10 defense executives in response to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and sanctions against Chinese firms aiding Russia in Ukraine. Sanctioned companies include Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics subsidiaries, with assets frozen in China. Executives from Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics are banned from entering China. The sanctions are largely symbolic, as these companies do not typically operate in China. The U.S. recently expanded sanctions on companies supporting Russia, while China has maintained close ties with Moscow, aiding its economy and military industry.
Estonia, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, and Sweden are pushing for EU sanctions against Georgia over its controversial “foreign agents” law, the Financial Times reported on May 22. The law requires organizations receiving foreign funding to be labeled as “foreign agents,” similar to repressive Russian legislation. The law has sparked protests and widespread discontent against the government. Sanctions may include suspending visa-free travel to the EU and freezing EU funds. The issue will be discussed by EU foreign ministers next week. Georgia received EU candidate status in December 2023, but recent reports indicate limited progress on required reforms and a risk of drifting toward Russia. The U.S. may offer military, trade, and visa incentives if Georgia reverses its democratic backsliding and abandons the law.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, voted to establish a special temporary commission on fortifications, announced by lawmaker Oleksii Honcharenko. The slow progress in fortifying front lines has drawn criticism, especially after Russian forces breached northern Kharkiv Oblast earlier in May. The commission’s creation was supported by 277 lawmakers. Honcharenko emphasized the importance of the initiative on Telegram.
Luhansk Oblast Military Administration Head Artem Lysohor reported that a Ukrainian strike on May 20 against the Luhansk Academy of Internal Affairs in occupied Katerynivka likely caused significant losses among Russian officers.
Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces used a maritime drone to launch multiple rocket strikes on Russian positions near the occupied Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast.
Ukrainian troops shot down another Russian Su-25 near Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, making it the fifth Su-25 destroyed this month. The heavily armored Su-25 supports Russian ground troops and conducts intense attacks across Donetsk Oblast. The General Staff reported ongoing heavy fighting in the Pokrovsk sector, with 25 recent attacks and nine active combat engagements. Since the full-scale invasion began, Russia has reportedly lost over 350 planes.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Lyptsi
Russian forces continued their offensive near Lyptsi, north of Kharkiv City, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian milbloggers claimed minor advances near Lyptsi and Zelene, though these claims are unconfirmed. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russia is withdrawing elements of the 7th Motorized Rifle Regiment for rest. He also noted that the Northern Grouping of Forces has increased to about 40,000 personnel, with many remaining in reserve in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts.
Vovchansk
Russian forces made small advances within Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City. Geolocated footage confirmed these advances, while Ukrainian forces also gained ground, pushing Russians from several houses in northeastern Vovchansk. Ukrainian officials stated they control most of the settlement, with Russian forces conducting assaults in small infantry groups. Russian forces are advancing toward Tykhe and conducting reconnaissance near Volokhivka, Chaikhivka, Okhrimivka, and Mala Vovcha. They also made progress along Sadova Street in Starytsya and conducted assaults near Buhruvatka.
Ukrainian police reported that Russian forces in Vovchansk are shooting civilians attempting to escape. Police chief Oleksii Kharkivskyi told KYIV24 that several incidents are under investigation. About 100 civilians remain in Vovchansk, unable to leave due to threats from Russian troops. Civilians trying to flee across the Vovcha River have been targeted by Russian forces, but police helped eight people escape on May 21.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued their offensive along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, with no changes to the frontline. They conducted operations near Synkivka, Berestove, Stelmakhivka, Ivanivka, Serhiivka, Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Novoyehorivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Torske, Hryhorivka, and Bilohorivka. Ukrainian sources reported that Russian tanks with heavy metal plating were used near Bilohorivka to protect against drone strikes.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued their offensive near Siversk, with no changes to the frontline. They conducted assaults southeast of Siversk near Vyimka and south of Siversk near Rozdolivka.
Chasiv Yar
Ukrainian forces regained some territory in eastern Chasiv Yar amid ongoing Russian offensives. Geolocated footage showed Ukrainians recapturing buildings in the eastern Kanal Microraion. Despite Russian claims of seizing Klishchiivka, reports indicate Ukrainian forces are still present there. The Russian 98th Airborne Division advanced 500 meters in eastern Chasiv Yar and is fighting on its outskirts. Ukrainian officials noted that Russia plans to withdraw some 98th VDV elements for replenishment. Russian forces also continued attacks near Ivanivske and Andriivka. There are conflicting claims about control and advances in these areas, with no confirmed changes.
Avdiivka
Russian forces advanced northwest of Avdiivka. Geolocated footage shows they reached the eastern outskirts of Novooleksandrivka. Russian sources claim further advances along a railway towards Sokil and south of Netaylove. They also allege Ukrainian forces are withdrawing to Karlivka, though this is unconfirmed. Russian operations continue near Novooleksandrivka, Prohres, Sokil, Netaylove, and other nearby areas. Reports suggest Ukrainian brigades have moved from Avdiivka to northern Kharkiv, but this is also unconfirmed.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces made minor gains southwest of Donetsk City. Footage published on May 21 shows their advance near Novomykhailivka. Claims of further progress into Paraskoviivka are unconfirmed. Russian forces continued operations near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, Pobieda, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Volodymyrivka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces advanced in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area. Recent footage shows their progress in southern Staromayorske, south of Velyka Novosilka. They continued offensive operations near Urozhaine and Staromayorske.
Zaporizhia Line
Positional engagements continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast without any confirmed changes to the frontline. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced a kilometer toward Mala Tokmachka, though this is unconfirmed. Russian forces reportedly advanced near Robotyne, with ongoing fighting near Verbove.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Positional engagements continued in the left (east) bank of Kherson Oblast, including near Krynky.
Ukrainian Civilian Victims Of War
The casualty count of Ukrainian civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 4 INJURIES: 32
- Russian troops attacked Kharkiv with guided munitions, injuring at least 12 people. Explosions were reported hitting a residential area in the Shevchenkivskyi district. A fire broke out in an apartment building and a gas station, damaging cars and a local cafe. Four people were hospitalized, including a trolleybus driver in serious condition.
- A Russian drone struck a police car during evacuation efforts near Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast, killing one officer and injuring another. The attack occurred as the officers were assisting in civilian evacuations amid a renewed Russian offensive. Russian drones continue to pose a threat in the area, but police remain committed to evacuating people from shelled zones. Ukrainian officials have also reported incidents of Russian troops shooting at civilians during the evacuations.
- A Russian missile strike on the village of Rih in Donetsk Oblast killed a 52-year-old man and his 46-year-old wife. Their 10-year-old son was injured. A 24-year-old man from a neighboring house was also hurt. The explosion damaged three households and a gas pipeline.
- Russian troops attacked the town of Toretsk in the morning, killing a 26-year-old man.
- Seven people were injured after Russian forces attacked downtown Chuhuiv. The injured include a 28-year-old man and women aged 22, 41, 42, 55, 65, and 77. A kindergarten was also damaged in the attack.
- Russian shelling injured a woman in the village of Hoptivka.
- One person was injured in Sumy Oblast after Russian forces struck production facilities in Konotop. Russian forces fired over 30 times at border settlements, with at least 201 explosions recorded in the past day.
- In Kherson Oblast, Russian attacks damaged six high-rise buildings, seven houses, cars, a cell tower, an agricultural enterprise, and a gas pipeline. Eight people, including a child, were injured over the past day.
The aftermath of a Russian guided munitions attack on Kharkiv
The aftermath of Russia’s attack on the village of Rih in Donetsk Oblast
Ukraine News
On the night of May 21-22, Russian forces launched 24 Shahed drones at Ukraine, all of which were shot down by Ukrainian forces. During the day, Russian missile and glide bomb strikes targeted Kharkiv Oblast. The Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor’s Office reported that two S-400 missiles hit Chuhuiv, injuring eight civilians, and two glide bombs struck Kharkiv City, injuring 12 civilians.
The Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office announced an investigation into a May 21 Russian missile strike on Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, noting that Russian forces have previously used Iskander ballistic missiles in attacks on the area.
Ukrainian law enforcement has identified 357 Russian servicemen and officials suspected of war crimes, according to Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin. These individuals are accused of killings, torture, and mistreatment of civilians and POWs, with 83 already convicted. Kostin noted the real number of crimes is likely much higher. He discussed these issues with UN Special Rapporteur Morris Tidball-Binz and emphasized Ukraine’s commitment to cooperating with international parties to ensure accountability. Ukrainian officials have documented thousands of war crimes, including attacks on civilians, cultural sites, and medical institutions.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
On May 21, Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers approved additional vacation days for soldiers who destroy Russian military equipment. Frontline soldiers have struggled to take breaks, leading to recent efforts to rotate those in combat for extended periods. The new measure grants five days of leave for destroying a Russian ship or plane, four days for an anti-air defense system or helicopter, and three days for a tank or armored personnel carrier. Shorter vacations apply for other equipment like Shahed drones. Up to three soldiers involved in the destruction can receive the reward.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) revealed an upgrade to its Sea Baby naval drones, which can now launch Grad rockets. Previously used as kamikaze drones, these enhanced drones have been deployed against Russian positions on the Kinburn Spit near Mykolaiv. According to an SBU source, the new system has shown powerful results, although details were not provided. Pictures show the drones launching rockets during testing. The Sea Baby can now carry nearly a ton of explosives and reach targets over 1,000 kilometers away. SBU spokesperson Artem Dekhtiarenko highlighted that these homegrown drones, costing around $216,000 each, have proven more effective than larger Western drones.
Ukraine’s Allies
Poland is considering using its air defenses to shoot down Russian missiles over Ukraine, Polish Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Pawel Wronski said. President Zelensky suggested Western allies, including Poland, could take this step to aid Ukraine’s defense. Wronski stated that Poland is discussing the legal and technical aspects of the proposal, but no decisions have been made. This consideration follows a Russian missile entering Polish airspace during an attack on Ukraine on March 24. However, Wronski clarified that Poland is not planning to deploy its air defense units outside its borders.
The Swedish government announced a support framework for Ukraine, allocating 75 billion Swedish krona ($7 billion) in military aid from 2024 to 2026. This brings Sweden’s total aid to Ukraine since the war began to over 100 billion krona ($9 billion). The aid includes equipment donations, financial contributions, and procurement support. The framework, agreed upon with the Sweden Democrats party, provides 25 billion krona ($2.3 billion) annually. Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson told Bloomberg that increasing aid capacity could take up to two years.
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson suggested allowing Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied weapons to strike targets in Russian territory. Johnson said Ukraine should be able to “prosecute the war in the way they see fit” without U.S. micromanagement. His comments followed a bipartisan request from congressmen urging the Pentagon to lift the restriction. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis also called the U.S. restriction on using long-range ATACMS missiles inside Russia a “mistake.” U.S. officials have opposed Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia, but Ukrainian officials argue that the ban prevents them from effectively countering Russian forces.
Romanian President Klaus Iohannis stated that supplying a Patriot system to Ukraine must be approved by the Supreme Council of National Defense and must not compromise Romania’s air defense. He emphasized that discussions will be private with military experts and the Council, as reported by Digi24. Iohannis noted the logistical and legal complexities of supplying the system and stressed that Romania would need something in return. Despite challenges, Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu mentioned it is still possible to provide a Patriot system. Romania currently has one operational Patriot system. Ukraine needs 25 Patriots for defense, but Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is focused on securing seven to protect major cities.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russian authorities at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) claimed Ukrainian forces used a loitering munition to strike a transport workshop, causing no damage. They also reported multiple Ukrainian drone strikes on residential and social facilities at the plant over the past two days. Russian sources frequently allege Ukrainian drone strikes on the ZNPP to provoke concerns about a radiological incident and push for negotiations with international organizations like the International Atomic Energy Agency, aiming to legitimize Russia’s occupation of the plant and Ukrainian land.
Fifty-four delegations supported Ukraine’s statement that Russia is jeopardizing global nuclear security at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Conference in Vienna, the Energy Ministry reported. The conference, attended by over 2,000 participants from 130 member states, addresses nuclear security policies, regulations, and technologies. Since the full-scale invasion, Russia has violated key nuclear safety standards and occupied the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Europe’s largest, disrupting its connection to Ukraine’s power grid. The joint statement condemned Russia’s actions and called for accountability. Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko urged for sanctions against Russia’s nuclear industry and highlighted the IAEA’s efforts to prevent nuclear accidents.
The Ukrainian investigative portal Evocation.info reported that a Russian 58th Combined Arms Army commander blocked the removal of the BARS-8 volunteer battalion from the Melitopol area in late summer 2023, despite the battalion’s extensive crimes against locals. The BARS-8 commander, Denis Sidorenko (alias Maestro), previously led the Russian 63rd Spetsnaz Regiment in Chechnya and faced corruption charges. In 2023, Sidorenko was offered command of BARS-8, which committed kidnappings, extortion, and murders in occupied Polohy Raion, Zaporizhia Oblast. Despite demands for its removal, the 58th CAA commander intervened, halting the crimes. BARS-8 later suffered significant casualties in winter 2024 due to poor training, lack of support, and Sidorenko’s extended absence.
Russia News
Russian courts have begun forcibly hospitalizing individuals charged with political crimes, such as spreading “fake” information about the military, in psychiatric hospitals. The Russian opposition outlet Agenstvo Novosti reported a fivefold increase in these sentences since 2023 compared to previous years. Courts have sentenced at least 33 people to psychiatric care in the last 18 months, up from an average of three annually before 2020. OVD-Info’s Dmitry Anisimov stated that this rise is linked to the prosecution of those discrediting the Russian military and protesting the war in Ukraine. Human rights activists believe the actual number of such sentences could be higher and note that similar practices occurred in the Soviet era, albeit on a larger scale.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
On May 21, the Russian State Duma passed a bill in its first reading to issue payments to troops fighting in Ukraine automatically, without needing an application. Dmitry Vyatkin from the State Duma Committee on State Construction and Legislation mentioned that a temporary non-declaration procedure was introduced in 2023. The Russian Social Fund created a system to automatically recognize combat veteran status, allowing servicemen to receive state compensation. However, many irregular forces used in combat may not be included as veterans.
The Russian government is increasingly using mercenaries from African countries, Cuba, and Serbia in Ukraine. Russian state media reported a mercenary from Guinea fighting in Ukraine. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that 46 Cubans have been fighting since summer 2023 without compensation. Another milblogger shared a video showing African and Serbian mercenaries in combat.
The Russian Ministry of Defense released footage of Su-30SM naval fighters using long-range R-37M and short-range R-77-1 air-to-air missiles over the Black Sea. A Russian milblogger claimed this is the first video showing Su-30SM using R-77-1 missiles.
Russia’s Allies
UK Defense Minister Grant Shapps claimed that US and UK intelligence indicates China may provide lethal military assistance to Russia. This statement, which Shapps called a “significant development,” was questioned by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, who noted no such evidence has been seen to date. Sullivan plans to discuss the matter with UK officials to ensure a shared understanding and clarify Shapps’ remarks.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Russian propagandists and milbloggers falsely claimed that Ukrainian officials ignore offers for prisoner of war (POW) exchanges to undermine confidence in the Ukrainian government. They shared a document listing 500 Ukrainian POWs, which Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan said Ukrainian officials refused to exchange, alleging they only wanted to return 38 Azov unit servicemen. The last POW exchange was on February 8. Ukrainian officials report that Russia has refused exchanges since February 2024 and warn that Russia contacts families of Ukrainian POWs to falsely claim the Ukrainian government is unwilling to bring them back.
The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) likened an assassination attempt on Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico to the killings of Martin Luther King Jr. and Swedish Prime Minister Olof Palme. The SVR alleged that this attempt indicates Western “globalist” factions are engaging in political terror against opponents, targeting leaders like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić. The SVR claimed the attack on Fico is similar to the murders of King and Palme, as they also opposed the mainstream.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpo st.com