Summary of the day: The Kremlin is removing senior defense officials and likely extending this to commanders of combat operations in Ukraine. Russian border guards removed buoys in Estonian waters, possibly testing NATO’s response. US officials are pressing to reconsider Ukraine’s restriction on using US-provided weapons to strike within Russia. Ukrainian forces advanced near Lukyantsi and Kreminna, while Russian forces made gains near Berestove, Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and Velyka Novosilka. Additionally, Ukraine conducted drone strikes on Russian defense facilities in Tatarstan.
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Picture of the Day
Ukrainian first responders transport a body of a civilian killed in a Russian missile attack on a publishing factory in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on May 23, 2024. (Francis Farrell/The Kyiv Independent)
Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Russian border guards removed 24 buoys in Estonian waters of the Narva River, which marks the Estonia-Russia border, likely to test NATO’s response. Estonia had placed the buoys in accordance with a 2022 agreement, but Russia disagreed with their locations. Estonia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs called the action provocative and demanded an explanation and the buoys’ return. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas accused Russia of using border issues to create fear. The Kremlin claims the removal is to ensure Russian security amid rising tensions in the Baltic region.
Iranian leaders used President Ebrahim Raisi’s funeral events to emphasize close ties with Armenia amid growing tensions between Yerevan and Moscow. Iranian officials met with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, stressing continued cooperation and adherence to agreements with Armenia. Pashinyan also met with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. These meetings occur as Pashinyan’s relations with Russia worsen, following his indirect accusation that Russia aided Azerbaijan in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War.
It’s notable that the Azerbaijani prime minister and foreign affairs minister, who attended Ebrahim Raisi’s funeral, have not yet met with senior Iranian officials like Khamenei and Mokhber. Raisi had inaugurated a dam on the Iran-Azerbaijan border with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev shortly before his death on May 19. Iranian media highlighted that Aliyev, along with the presidents of Russia, Syria, Turkey, and Venezuela, did not attend Raisi’s funeral.
Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze echoed Russian claims that the West is destabilizing, following Kremlin rhetoric. Kobakhidze suggested that Western special services organized an assassination attempt on Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico. The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service claimed the attempt shows the West’s move towards “political terror.” Kobakhidze also accused EU officials of threatening him with Fico’s fate if his party overrules the president’s veto of a “foreign agents” bill. These actions align with Georgia’s Dream party’s Kremlin-inspired stance, potentially undermining Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic integration efforts.
The Norwegian government announced that starting May 29, Russian citizens will be denied entry for tourism or other non-essential travel due to high threats of Russian sabotage against Norwegian infrastructure. Russian officials, including Ambassador Teimuraz Ramishvili and MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova, criticized the move as discriminatory. Ramishvili also mentioned past territorial concessions to Norway, hinting at potential future confrontations.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing the confiscation of U.S. assets to compensate for Russian assets seized by the U.S. This move follows the U.S. Congress approving the REPO Act, which lets the Biden administration seize Russian assets and send them to Ukraine. Western countries have immobilized around $300 billion in Russian assets, with $5 billion in the U.S. The decree allows Russians to appeal asset seizures and receive U.S. assets in Russia as compensation. Dmitry Medvedev had previously threatened retaliatory actions if the U.S. seized Russian assets.
Slovak media reported that the man charged with attempting to assassinate Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico cited the country’s policy towards Ukraine as his motivation. Fico, 59, was shot on May 15 as he left a government meeting in Handlova, leaving him in serious condition. The shooter, 71-year-old writer and political activist Juraj Cintula, claimed he intended to harm Fico’s health, not kill him, due to disagreements with the government’s policies, including its stance on Ukraine. Cintula criticized Fico’s abolition of the special prosecutor’s office and his friendly relations with Russia and Hungary. If convicted, Cintula could face 25 years in prison. Fico, elected in September 2023, has halted arms supplies to Ukraine and criticized defense assistance and sanctions against Russia, while expressing support for Ukraine’s EU accession.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
On May 22, Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command Spokesperson, Captain Dmytro Pletenchuk, reported that Ukraine’s May 19 strike on Sevastopol damaged the Russian Tsyklon missile ship and may have damaged the Kovrovets minesweeper. The UK Ministry of Defense assessed that the strike “almost certainly” sunk the Tsyklon. Satellite images published on May 23 show damage to Sevastopol’s port infrastructure from the strike.
The pro-Ukrainian partisan group Atesh reported a missile attack on a Russian communications hub in Alushta, Crimea, causing significant equipment damage and numerous casualties. A large military antenna in Semydviria, east of Alushta, was also hit. The command center of the communications hub may have been destroyed. The Crimean Wind Telegram channel claimed the attack involved at least six U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles, striking the antenna and several buildings. Explosions were heard across Crimea, with Russian air defenses proving ineffective. Ukraine’s Armed Forces have not commented on the attack. Earlier, Sergey Aksyonov, the Russian proxy head in Crimea, reported two civilian deaths from a missile attack in the Simferopol region. Explosions were also reported in Sevastopol, Yevpatoria, and Alushta. Recent weeks have seen multiple attacks on Russia’s Belbek airfield in Crimea.
On May 22, Ukrainian forces hit a Russian S-400 air defense system, Ukraine’s General Staff reported. Ukraine’s Air Force and artillery also targeted two Russian artillery pieces, two drone control stations, two command posts, an electronic warfare station, and a Su-25 aircraft. The extent of the damage to the S-400 system or its location was not detailed. The S-400 Triumph system costs around $1.2 billion. In mid-April, four S-400 launchers were destroyed in an attack on a Russian military airfield in occupied Crimea, according to Ukrainian military intelligence.
Ukraine’s 110th Mechanized Brigade reported shooting down a Russian Su-25 jet, the second downed Russian plane today. This marks the sixth Su-25 Ukraine has shot down this month. The plane was downed in Donbas, a region in eastern Ukraine comprising Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, mostly controlled by Russia. The Su-25, known as “Frogfoot” by NATO, is a heavily armored ground-attack aircraft.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Lyptsi
Ukrainian forces recently recaptured some territory north of Kharkiv City amid ongoing Russian attacks. Geolocated footage from May 22 shows Ukrainian advances southeast of Lukyantsi. Russian forces continued attacks near Lyptsi, and Russian sources reported Ukrainian counterattacks near Lyptsi and Hlyboke. Russian milbloggers claimed Russian advances of up to 500 meters near Lyptsi, but this is unconfirmed. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi noted that Russian forces have shifted to an active defense in the Lyptsi area.
Vovchansk
Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Vovchansk, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian milbloggers claimed advances of up to 400 meters, though this is unconfirmed. Fighting in Vovchansk is becoming positional, with Russian forces bogged down in street battles and transferring reserves to the area. Russian forces also continued attacks near Starytsya and claimed to have repelled Ukrainian counterattacks within Vovchansk. Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Russian troops are “completely bogged down” in street battles for Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast, suffering heavy losses.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces made minor advances south of Kreminna amid ongoing Russian attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian progress north of Bilohorivka. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported continued Russian assaults in forest areas north of Kupyansk and efforts to break through defenses near Kyslivka to reach the Oskil River. Russian milbloggers claimed advances along a railway line near Kyslivka and reconnaissance operations near Ivanivka. They also reported heavy Russian losses during assaults on Bilohorivka, with limited gains. Additionally, Russian forces attacked areas near Synkivka, Berestove, Stelmakhivka, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Nevske, Makiivka, Druzhelyubivka, Novovodyane, Terny, Torske, Hryhorivka, and Bilohorivka.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces recently advanced north of Berestove, southeast of Siversk, as shown in geolocated footage from May 22. The Ukrainian General Staff reported repelling Russian attacks near Verkhnokamyanske, also southeast of Siversk.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces are trying to advance near Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast but have not entered the town, according to Kyrylo Sazonov, a soldier in the 41st Separate Mechanized Brigade. The Russian MoD claimed to have seized Andriivka, southeast of Chasiv Yar, and Russian milbloggers reported advances on the northeastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar and within the Kanal and Novyi areas. However, these claims are unconfirmed. Fighting continues near Ivanivske and Klishchiivka. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi noted that Russian forces are using T-90 tanks and IFVs, countered by Ukrainian anti-tank systems and drones.
Avdiivka
Russian forces advanced west and northwest of Avdiivka. Geolocated footage suggests Russian forces seized Umanske, as Ukrainian forces targeted a Russian ammunition supply point there. Additional footage shows Russian advances west of Berdychi. Fighting continued near Avdiivka, including Kalynove, Ocheretyne, Novooleksandrivka, Arkhanhelske, Sokil, Novopokrovske, Solovyove, and Netaylove. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported intense fighting in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions, with Russian units trying to break through between Berdychi and Staromykhailivka. Russian forces use mechanized and infantry-led assaults, sometimes employing motorcycles and ATVs.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced west of Donetsk City amid ongoing offensives. Geolocated footage from May 22 and 23 shows advances in southwestern and eastern Krasnohorivka. Fighting also continued near Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces recently advanced in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area. Footage shows Russian forces on motorcycles advancing into central Staromayorske, south of Velyka Novosilka. A Russian milblogger noted that motorcycles help evade Ukrainian artillery and drone strikes. Fighting also continued near Urozhaine, south of Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhia Line
On May 22, a Ukrainian unit spokesperson stated that Ukrainian forces control Robotyne, refuting the Russian MoD’s claim of its capture. Russian servicemen on dirt bikes and reconnaissance groups are operating on Robotyne’s outskirts. Russian milbloggers claimed advances northwest of Verbove, though this is unconfirmed.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
The Ukrainian General Staff reported ongoing Russian assaults in east Kherson Oblast, including near Krynky. Elements of the Russian 76th Airborne Division are operating near Nestryha Island in the Dnipro River Delta. There is speculation that Russian forces may redeploy elements of the 7th and 76th Airborne Divisions to Luhansk, Kherson, or Kursk Oblasts. A Russian milblogger claimed that the 76th Division was sent to Krynky to relieve the 104th Division, supported by reports of their activity in the Kherson area.
Ukrainian Civilian Victims Of War
The casualty count of Ukrainian civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 8 INJURIES: 42
- Russian forces attacked Kharkiv Oblast, killing at least seven people in Kharkiv and injuring 21. The strikes targeted transportation infrastructure and a communal services building. A printing shop in the Osnovianskyi district was directly hit, causing a fire and killing seven employees, including five women and one man.
- Seven people were injured in Lyubotyn when S-300 missiles hit the railway station area, damaging a park, cars, and shops.
- Two people were injured in Zolochiv when guided aerial bombs hit, damaging a local kindergarten.
- Ukrainian Railways reported that six workers were injured in attacks on Kharkiv Oblast, with several facilities hit in Kharkiv and other locations.
- Russia conducted two aerial strikes with KAB bombs on Derhachi. Two people were injured and hospitalized, while four others suffered from shock
- Russian troops attacked the village of Mala Tokmachka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, killing a 74-year-old man. The blast wave and debris destroyed a house and neighboring buildings, and the man was killed in his yard.
The aftermath of a Russian missile attack against Kharkiv
Ukraine News
Russian forces struck Kharkiv City and Lyubotyn in Kharkiv Oblast with 15 S-300/400 missiles, mainly damaging transportation infrastructure. The Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor’s Office reported a railway station in Lyubotyn was hit. Kharkiv City Mayor Ihor Terekhov confirmed damage to transportation infrastructure and a utilities facility. Despite the attacks, Ukrzaliznytsia stated trains continued running on schedule. President Volodymyr Zelensky noted Russia is exploiting Ukraine’s limited air defense. Recent Russian strikes aim to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines and hinder US security assistance.
President Volodymyr Zelensky plans to visit the D-Day commemoration in France and a G7 meeting in Italy in June to request more military aid. His schedule may still change. Zelensky canceled other international events on May 15 due to front-line challenges. In France, he will urge partners to send more military support and help shoot down Russian missiles over Ukraine. In Italy, he will advocate for seizing Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s defense and reconstruction.
Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba urged Kyiv’s partners to provide more Patriot air defense systems after a deadly Russian missile attack on Kharkiv Oblast. The attack killed at least seven people and injured dozens. Kuleba emphasized the urgent need for six more Patriot systems for Ukraine’s defense and European peace.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
On May 22, a court in Ukraine’s Khmelnytskyi Oblast released two prisoners who volunteered to join the army, marking the first instance of such a decision. This follows a bill passed by Ukraine’s parliament on May 8, allowing those convicted of certain offenses to serve in the military. President Volodymyr Zelensky signed the bill into law on May 17. The two men, convicted of theft, were sentenced to over four years in prison. They will be supervised by their military units and cannot leave without permission. The court is considering similar cases for 50 other convicts. Justice Minister Denys Maliuska said up to 20,000 convicts could join the military, helping to ease prison overcrowding. The new rules exclude those convicted of serious crimes like murder, sexual violence, drug trafficking, and corruption.
Ukraine faces a $5 billion shortfall in its military budget, Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko stated on May 22. The recent $61 billion U.S. aid package mainly covered social and humanitarian needs, leaving military expenditures underfunded. Marchenko highlighted the fiscal strain due to minimal military assistance from partners over the past six months. Ukraine’s defense budget for this year is $40 billion, with $6 billion allocated for arms procurement. Kyiv received $1.5 billion in World Bank loans in March, and the World Bank plans to invest $1.9 billion in Ukraine over the next 18 months.
Ukraine’s Allies
After visiting Kyiv, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is urging the White House to allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia with American-supplied arms, following a new Russian offensive in Kharkiv Oblast. The current U.S. ban prevents Ukraine from using advanced weapons like ATACMS missiles against Russian forces. The proposal, still under debate within President Biden’s administration, has not been formally presented to the president. It may permit strikes on Russian military facilities but not infrastructure like oil refineries. Unlike the U.S., the U.K. allows Ukraine to use British-supplied arms, including Storm Shadow missiles, to strike Russian territory, prompting threats from Moscow. The proposal is in early stages, and it’s unclear how much support it has within the administration. Current restrictions allow Russia to use its border areas as safe zones for launching attacks on Ukraine and assembling forces.
The U.S. government will soon announce an additional $275 million in military aid for Ukraine, including HIMARS munitions, 155 mm and 105 mm artillery rounds, Javelin and AT-4 anti-tank systems, anti-tank mines, tactical vehicles, and small arms. This will be the fourth installment of aid since the $61 billion foreign defense bill was passed last month. The announcement follows U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s meeting with defense officials from over 50 countries, emphasizing the urgency of supporting Ukraine due to a new Russian offensive in Kharkiv Oblast. Since passing the aid bill, the U.S. has sent nearly $1.7 billion in weapons to Kyiv.
Polish Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Pawel Wronski stated that Poland is considering using its air defense to protect Ukrainian airspace from Russian strikes. Poland is reviewing a request from Ukraine to protect airspace along their shared border. No decisions have been made yet, and the policy is under review by international law and technical experts. Russian forces have recently targeted Ukrainian infrastructure in western Ukraine, including areas near Poland.
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine and Norway finalized a bilateral security agreement, set to be signed soon. Norway also unveiled a $190 million military aid package for Ukraine, funded by the International Fund for Ukraine (IFU) and supported by the UK, Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Lithuania, and Iceland. The aid includes air defense, naval capabilities, radar, anti-drone systems, and boats. These agreements and funds aim to strengthen Ukraine against Russian aggression and support post-war reconstruction. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store confirmed his participation in the upcoming peace summit in Switzerland, focusing on Zelensky’s 10-point peace plan.
On May 22, the defense ministers of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia met in Palanga, Lithuania, to set key goals for the upcoming NATO summit. They agreed on a commitment for NATO allies to invest at least 2.5% of GDP in defense, with 18 members expected to reach the current 2% target by 2024. The ministers—Estonia’s Hanno Pevkur, Lithuania’s Laurynas Kasciunas, and Latvia’s Andris Spruds—emphasized ongoing support for Ukraine and pledged at least 0.25% of their budgets to aid Kyiv annually. They also aim to strengthen NATO’s critical capabilities, develop regional defense plans, and discuss air defense rotation. The ministers highlighted the need for enhanced cooperation on Baltic defense due to their proximity to Russia and Belarus. Kasciunas noted that Russia remains a long-term threat to Euro-Atlantic security, particularly for the Baltic states.
The European Union is considering sanctions on Belarus to close a trade loophole that allows Russia to import luxury cars and banned goods. The EU has already sanctioned Belarus for supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine. The new sanctions aim to prevent circumvention by banning exports of military-use technology, liquified natural gas, and luxury cars to and from Belarus. The monthly flow of vehicles from the EU to Belarus increased significantly, with luxury cars being smuggled into Russia. Lithuanian and Polish officials agree that aligning sanctions regimes is necessary to close these gaps. Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya supports the new sanctions but criticizes the lack of enforcement mechanisms.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Ukraine’s Chief Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets announced the return of 13 children from Russia, with Qatar mediating the effort. Since Russia’s invasion, at least 19,500 Ukrainian children have been abducted, with fewer than 400 returned. Seven of the 13 children were from Russian-occupied territories, and six through President Zelensky’s Bring Kids Back UA plan. Lubinets visited Qatar in April to provide a list of 561 abducted children. The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Russian officials, including President Putin, over these deportations, requiring ICC member states to arrest Putin if he enters their territory.
Russia News
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) launched drone strikes against Russian defense facilities in Tatarstan, targeting sites in Kazan and Nizhnekamsk. Ukrainian sources reported that Russian officials evacuated several industrial plants in the area. Russian air defenses claimed to have destroyed a Ukrainian drone near Nizhnekamsk and denied any damage.
The Kremlin is removing senior defense officials, possibly expanding to commanders in Ukraine. Recently, Deputy Chief Vadim Shamarin and Procurement Head Vladimir Verteletsky were arrested for bribes, following five other senior officials’ arrests since April. Russian bloggers claim Lieutenant General Sukhrab Akhmedov, commander of the 20th Combined Arms Army, was dismissed. The 20th CAA has struggled with tactical gains, and Akhmedov faced criticism for command issues. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denies a targeted campaign against MoD officials, insisting the arrests are part of anti-corruption efforts, though the sudden and high-profile actions suggest otherwise. Russian milbloggers celebrated the arrests of Shamarin and Verteletsky and the alleged removal of Akhmedov, speculating about further removals and naming other officials as possible targets. Many see the arrests as a crackdown on corruption under new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov. The Kremlin supports these criticisms to bolster Belousov’s image and demonstrate that no defense or military official is safe from consequences, aiming to secure the loyalty of milbloggers advocating for changes in the MoD and military command.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian Ministry of Defense proposed extending regular military punishments to volunteers, likely to improve command and control. The proposal would amend the law on volunteer formations to include criminal liabilities for military service crimes, such as leaving one’s unit without permission and refusing orders. This move aims to better integrate volunteer formations into the Russian military.
Russia’s Allies
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko appointed Major General Pavel Muraveiko as the new Chief of the General Staff. Muraveiko was previously the First Deputy Secretary of the Belarusian Security Council and served in the General Staff’s Main Operational Directorate from 2013 to 2022. He replaces Major General Viktor Gulevich, who retired on May 10.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin denied claims that China has supplied lethal weapons to Russia, countering statements by U.K. Foreign Secretary Grant Shapps. Shapps had said new intelligence suggested lethal aid from China was flowing to Russia and Ukraine. U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan distanced the U.S. from Shapps’ claim, stating no evidence supported it. Wenbin condemned Shapps’ comments as groundless and irresponsible. He also referenced a debunked theory that the U.K. had obstructed peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Despite China’s official neutrality, Beijing and Moscow maintain close ties, with recent high-level visits between their leaders. U.S. officials have warned China against providing lethal aid to Russia, although Sullivan acknowledged China is supplying weapons components, which the U.S. is addressing.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Ukrainian intelligence spokesperson Andriy Yusov warned that Russian actors will continue their disinformation campaigns. He noted that Russia will use the January 24 crash of a Russian Il-76 in Belgorod Oblast, allegedly carrying Ukrainian POWs, to discredit the Ukrainian government. The Russian Investigative Committee plans to escalate this operation in July 2024. Yusov also mentioned an ongoing Russian operation, “Maidan 3,” aimed at creating internal tensions and questioning President Zelensky’s legitimacy. Additionally, Russia will continue to falsely link Ukraine to the March 22 terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall, despite evidence pointing to the Islamic State as the perpetrator.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpo st.com