Summary of the day: Ukrainian forces are increasingly contesting the tactical initiative in northern Kharkiv Oblast, while Russian operations in the area remain defensive. Russian forces continue to strike Kharkiv City from Russian airspace, aiming to depopulate and demoralize the population. Additionally, Russian forces have made confirmed advances near Donetsk City. Russian electronic warfare capabilities have impacted Western weapon systems in Ukraine, highlighting ongoing technical competition. Meanwhile, Russia is reportedly aiding North Korea’s defense industrial base in exchange for munitions and may also be supplying military equipment or technology.
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Picture of the Day
Firefighters work at hardware superstore ‘Epicenter’ after a Russian aerial attack on May 25, 2024, in Kharkiv. The bombing killed at least 12 people and injured 43, according to city authorities. (Denys Klymenko/Gwara Media/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
The United States is “deeply concerned” about China’s recent military drills around Taiwan, U.S. State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller stated. China conducted two days of drills starting May 23, following the inauguration of Taiwan’s pro-independence president, Lai Ching-te. The U.S. is closely monitoring the situation with its allies. Concerns about Chinese military action in Taiwan have grown since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. urged China to “act with restraint” and avoid using Taiwan’s democratic transition as an excuse for military provocations, which could escalate tensions. On May 22, China sanctioned 12 American military companies and 10 defense executives in response to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
Russia is likely aiding North Korea in developing its defense industrial base in exchange for munitions supplies. U.S. officials believe Russia may also be providing military equipment, weapons, and technology to North Korea, potentially expanding its nuclear capabilities. There are concerns that Russia might encourage North Korea to conduct significant military actions around the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Reports suggest that Russia is giving North Korea nuclear submarine and ballistic missile technology in return for munitions. North Korea may be seeking Russian missile parts and other military equipment to enhance its own defense capabilities. In 2023, North Korea supplied Russia with over a million artillery shells, indicating possible Russian support in replenishing these stockpiles.
A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that the ongoing NATO Steadfast Defender 2024 exercises are part of Western efforts to expand control into Moldova and threaten Russia. This followed Kremlin officials’ statements on May 24 that Moldova is losing its sovereignty to the West and that NATO is pulling Moldova into a military conflict. The Kremlin aims to destabilize Moldova, prevent its EU accession, and justify future military actions against it.
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in an interview that the U.S. has warned Russia of a conventional military response if it uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Despite repeated nuclear threats from Russian President Vladimir Putin, no such weapons have been used, and Russia continues its war with conventional arms. Sikorski stated that both China and India have urged Russia not to use nuclear weapons, fearing regional nuclear proliferation. He also supports ending restrictions on Ukraine using Western weapons to target Russia, aligning with recent comments by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and U.S. officials. Sikorski noted that Poland has increased its military spending to 4% of GDP but emphasized the need for more investment in basic munitions and defense across Europe, which has lagged in military preparedness.
Countries including the Baltic states, Poland, Norway, and Finland have agreed to create a “drone wall” to defend their borders, Lithuanian Interior Minister Agne Bilotaite announced on May 24. This initiative is separate from the European Sky Shield Initiative, which Poland joined earlier this month to develop an Iron Dome-style air defense system across NATO members. The “drone wall” will use drones and other technologies to protect borders, prevent provocations, and stop contraband. The plan is still in its early stages, with no set timeline, but Bilotaite mentioned the possibility of securing European funds for the project. This move comes as NATO’s eastern flank nations seek to bolster their defenses amid Russia’s war on Ukraine and its drone and missile attacks on civilian targets.
Peace Analysis
Russian Ambassador to the US, Anatoly Antonov, rejected Ukrainian President Zelensky’s legitimacy and outlined Russia’s strict conditions for peace negotiations in an interview with Newsweek. Antonov claimed Russia is willing to negotiate but insists any agreement must reflect battlefield realities and be signed by a “legitimate” Ukrainian leader, implying Zelensky is not legitimate. He criticized the upcoming Ukrainian Peace Conference in Switzerland and warned that Ukraine could lose more territory if the US ignores Russia’s peace proposals. This stance is part of Russia’s broader effort to discredit Zelensky and any pro-Western Ukrainian government.
Russian Ambassador Anatoly Antonov stated that Russia would reject any peace agreement requiring the withdrawal of its forces from occupied Ukrainian territories, including Kharkiv Oblast. He claimed Russia’s constitution forbids ceding territory, referring to illegally annexed areas like Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson as part of Russia’s official borders. This suggests Russia views these areas as permanently annexed, despite conflicting maps and statements about the borders. Antonov’s remarks indicate the Kremlin’s ongoing disinterest in meaningful peace negotiations, aiming instead for the complete control of Ukraine.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukraine is expected to face significant territorial losses and a bleak outlook for the rest of 2024, according to a new Western intelligence assessment reported by German media. The report, seen by German MPs, suggests Ukraine will not regain the initiative this year and will likely lose more land due to Russia’s artillery superiority and ability to sustain heavy losses. The assessment notes that Ukraine’s mobilization efforts will only have an impact by late summer, as new recruits need training. German politicians have had mixed reactions to the report, with some seeing it as pressure on Kyiv to cede territory and others agreeing with its findings. Russia has maintained the battlefield initiative in 2024 and launched a costly offensive in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian electronic warfare (EW) has significantly reduced the effectiveness of Western weapon systems in Ukraine, according to reports from The Washington Post and The New York Times. In 2023, the success rate of M982 Excalibur guided artillery shells fell from 55% to 7%, leading Ukrainian forces to stop using them. Joint Direct Attack Munition-Extended Range (JDAM-ER) systems also saw decreased effectiveness despite upgrades. Russian EW systems have been deployed near command centers, prompting Ukrainian forces to target these systems, especially in occupied Crimea. Despite these challenges, Ukrainian forces have recently conducted successful ATACMS missile strikes on Russian targets. The ongoing technical race between Russia and Ukraine sees both sides constantly adapting to each other’s innovations.
Ukraine’s military claimed that anti-aircraft gunners destroyed another Russian Su-25 attack aircraft in Donetsk Oblast. This marks the sixth Su-25 jet Ukraine claims to have shot down this month.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces are gaining tactical ground in northern Kharkiv Oblast, pushing Russian forces back. Russian operations in the area are defensive as they bolster their troops. Ukrainian President Zelensky announced control over part of the border initially crossed by Russians. Ukrainian forces have halted Russian advances near Lyptsi and are now focused on reclaiming territory. Despite Russian efforts to hold their positions, the momentum favors Ukrainian counterattacks as Russian offensive actions slow down.
Russian forces in northern Kharkiv Oblast are waiting to reach full strength before intensifying their offensive. Currently, they have about 35,000 troops but plan to increase to 50,000-70,000. Early offensive operations began with fewer troops than intended to secure a foothold before US aid arrived. Ukrainian sources report significant Russian casualties, with limited elements of the 11th Army Corps, 44th Army Corps, and 6th Combined Arms Army involved. Despite heavy losses, Russia has not yet committed significant reserves.
President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia’s losses in the recent Kharkiv Oblast offensive are eight times higher than those of Ukraine. This claim has not been independently verified. Zelensky criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin for disregarding human life, noting that Russia advanced 10 kilometers into the region but was stopped by Ukraine’s defenses.
Russian forces near Kharkiv are using limited units from various divisions in eastern Ukraine. Elements of the 47th Tank Division and 2nd Motorized Rifle Division are operating near Vovchansk and are also involved in operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line. Some units from the 98th Airborne Division are operating in Kursk Oblast while also assaulting areas near Chasiv Yar. This indicates that Russia is using a mix of understrength and transferred units to support its efforts in northern Kharkiv.
Russian forces are holding back reserves of the 11th AC, 44th AC, and 6th CAA to build up the Northern Grouping to its full strength of 50,000 to 70,000 troops before intensifying their offensive in northern Kharkiv Oblast. They plan to launch the second phase of their operation after capturing Vovchansk, despite current positional fighting and possible Ukrainian counterattacks. The objective is to create a “buffer zone” and get within artillery range of Kharkiv City. However, even at full strength, the Northern Grouping lacks the manpower to successfully encircle or seize Kharkiv City.
The early start of Russian offensive operations has hampered their success in northern Kharkiv Oblast. Russian forces surprised Ukrainian troops on May 10, making significant gains in poorly defended areas. The Ukrainian State Bureau of Investigation (SBI) is investigating the inadequate defenses and abandonment of positions in the Lyptsi and Vovchansk directions. Limited Russian manpower has prevented deeper advances. Ukrainian forces have now fortified their defenses, reducing the chances of further rapid Russian gains.
Russian forces continue to use their airspace to launch devastating strikes on Kharkiv City, aiming to depopulate and demoralize the population. On May 25, they carried out four attacks: a midnight missile strike on an educational facility, a precision bomb strike on the Epicenter hypermarket at 1 PM causing a massive fire, a 5 PM strike on Central Park, and a 7 PM strike in a residential area. The hypermarket attack killed at least five, injured 40, and left 16 missing. The evening residential area strike injured at least 18 people.
Russian forces are using precision-guided bombs against civilian areas in Kharkiv City to scare residents into leaving. Recent missile and glide bomb attacks have targeted the city, aiming to force people to flee. These strikes are launched from Russian territory, safe from Ukrainian air defenses due to Western restrictions on using Western-provided systems against targets in Russia. These attacks are expected to continue as part of the offensive in northern Kharkiv Oblast, given the current Western prohibitions.
Lyptsi
Fighting continued near Lyptsi, north of Kharkiv City, with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian sources claimed their forces retreated from some positions near Lyptsi, and Ukrainian forces pushed them back towards Lukyantsi. The Ukrainian General Staff reported ongoing Russian assaults near Lyptsi and Neskuchne, while the Russian MoD stated they repelled Ukrainian counterattacks near Hlyboke. A Russian blogger noted that Russian forces are struggling to advance through exposed lowlands. A Ukrainian intelligence officer reported that Russian assaults in the Lyptsi area involve significant infantry and glide bomb support.
Vovchansk
Fighting continued near and within Vovchansk on May 25 with no confirmed changes to the frontline. A Russian source claimed advances of 150 meters near Vovchansk Medical College and 300 meters near Tykhe, though this is unconfirmed. Russian forces continued assaults near Starytsya, Vovchansk, and Tykhe, and reportedly repelled Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian sources claimed a bridge near Tykhe was destroyed, and Ukrainian forces are building pontoon bridges in the area.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces reportedly advanced southeast of Kupyansk amid ongoing assaults along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. The Ukrainian General Staff acknowledged partial Russian success near Petropavlivka and Ivanivka. Russian sources claimed Russian forces seized Ivanivka, though this remains unconfirmed. Russian forces reportedly advanced one kilometer south of Berestove, controlling up to 70% of it, and moved 800 meters near Makiivka, seizing part of a road near Torske. Assaults continued in several areas, including northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka, southeast near Kyslivka, and west of Kreminna near Terny and Yampolivka.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched offensives near Vyimka (south of Siversk) and near Verkhnokamyanske and Spirne (both southeast of Siversk).
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued offensives near Chasiv Yar without confirmed changes to the frontline. Attacks occurred north of Chasiv Yar near Kalynivka; in eastern Chasiv Yar near the Kanal and Novyi areas; east near Ivanivske; southeast near Klishchiivka and Andriivka; and south near Shumy. Russian sources claimed some success near Klishchiivka and attempts to enter the Kanal area.
Avdiivka
Russian forces continued offensive operations west of Avdiivka with no confirmed advances. The Russian MoD claimed to have seized Arkhanhelske, though this was reported on May 4. A Russian source mentioned a 350-meter advance towards ponds north of Ocheretyne, but this is unconfirmed. The Ukrainian General Staff reported unspecified Russian success east of Yevhenivka. Russian forces are reportedly clearing Netaylove and Umanske and continued operations near Kalynove, Novooleksandrivka, Ocheretyne, Solovyove, Sokil, Novopokrovske, and Novoselivka Persha. Ground attacks in the Avdiivka direction increased threefold today.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced west of Donetsk City amid ongoing offensive operations. Geolocated footage showed Russian troops moving within Krasnohorivka. Russian sources claimed advances in Paraskoviivka, near the central hospital in Krasnohorivka, and 1.5 kilometers south of Kostyantynivka, though these claims are unconfirmed. Russian offensives continued near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, Paraskoviivka, Novomykhailivka, and Volodymyrivka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Fighting continued near Staromayorske, south of Velyka Novosilka, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces continued assaults in western Zaporizhia Oblast near Robotyne, Novoandriivka (northeast of Robotyne), and northwest of Verbove (east of Robotyne).
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched several unsuccessful assaults in eastern Kherson Oblast, including near Krynky. A Ukrainian source denied claims that Ukrainian forces withdrew from Krynky.
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian authorities released a large amount of water from the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant (DHPP) dam. Kherson occupation head Vladimir Saldo said on May 24 that all floodgates were opened, potentially flooding islands in the Dnipro River Delta. Russian bloggers echoed this, reporting rising water levels near Vasylivka in Zaporizhia and Sofiivka in Kherson, though it may take days to see the full impact. However, Zaporizhia official Vladimir Rogov denied this, stating the floodgates are closed but spillway gates have been open since a March 22 Russian strike. Ukrainian sources warned that the increased discussion might signal upcoming Russian actions in the area. Ukrainian officials have not commented, and the claims remain unverified.
Ukrainian Civilian Victims Of War
The casualty count of Ukrainian civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 12 INJURIES: 71
- A Russian strike on a building materials hypermarket in Kharkiv killed 12 people and injured 43. Ten of the victims remain unidentified. Two Russian guided bombs caused a fire covering 15,000 square meters. Ukraine’s Internal Affairs Minister, Ihor Klymenko, stated that Russia deliberately targeted a civilian area. President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that over 200 people might have been inside the hypermarket. Hours later, another strike on Kharkiv’s city center injured at least 25 people.
- Russian forces attacked Vinnytsia Oblast, hitting residential buildings and injuring three people. The strike targeted an apartment building in the town of Zhmerynka in the early morning hours, causing damage to several buildings and leading to the evacuation of residents.
- In Mykolaiv Oblast, Russian drones damaged windows at a preschool. There were no casualties as it was in the early morning.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a large-scale aerial attack on Ukraine, causing explosions in multiple regions. Alerts were issued nationwide due to threats from missiles, drones, and bombers. Strikes in Vinnytsia Oblast injured three people and damaged buildings, while Mykolaiv Oblast saw drone damage to a preschool and successful interception of three drones by air defense. Explosions were also reported in Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, and Kyiv oblasts, with power outages in parts of Khmelnytskyi. Poland scrambled jets to secure its airspace, and Ukrainian defenses intercepted 31 drones and 12 missiles. This attack followed a deadly bombing in Kharkiv, which killed 12 and injured 43, with a second attack injuring 25 more.
After the Russian attack on Kharkiv, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba urged Ukraine’s partners to provide more air defense and support for strikes on Russian military targets. The missile strike hit a building materials hypermarket in Kharkiv, causing a massive fire. Hours later, another strike hit Kharkiv’s city center. Kuleba emphasized that additional air defense is crucial to prevent such attacks on civilians.
Ukraine’s State Bureau of Investigation has launched an inquiry into the 125th Brigade and its subordinate units over their lack of preparedness and improper defense organization in Kharkiv Oblast, as reported by Ukrainska Pravda on May 25. The preliminary investigation accuses the 125th Brigade of failing to properly organize defenses due to a “careless attitude to military service,” resulting in the loss of positions, equipment, and personnel. The investigation will scrutinize the actions of nearly 30 commanders and officials to determine their responsibility for these losses. Ukrainian military commander Denys Yaroslavskyi cited a lack of preparedness and accused some defenders of negligence or betrayal.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Nearly 350 prisoners have been released to serve in the military following a new conscription law, Justice Minister Denys Maliuska told the New York Times on May 24. Ukraine’s parliament passed a bill on May 8 allowing those convicted of certain offenses to volunteer for military service, which President Zelensky signed into law on May 17. Maliuska said up to 20,000 convicts could be mobilized, easing prison overcrowding. So far, 4,300 applications have been received, with most under consideration. The law, aimed at addressing Ukraine’s manpower shortage, allows prisoners to serve in exchange for possible parole. This initiative is part of a broader effort to enhance military recruitment in 2024.
Ukraine’s Allies
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, in a May 24 interview with The Economist, called for ending the ban on Ukraine using Western-supplied weapons to strike targets in Russia. German lawmaker Anton Hofreiter supported this view the next day in an interview with Spiegel. While U.S. officials have opposed Ukraine using American weapons inside Russia, the stance is shifting. Critics argue that the ban prevented Ukraine from attacking Russian forces before they crossed into Kharkiv Oblast. Stoltenberg and Hofreiter assert that lifting the restrictions is essential for Ukraine’s defense and aligns with international law. U.S. lawmakers, including House Speaker Mike Johnson and Congressman Michael McCaul, also criticized the policy, stating it hinders Ukraine’s defense efforts. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reportedly seeks to end the ban after visiting Kyiv. Stoltenberg emphasized the need to avoid escalating the war into a full conflict between Russia and NATO and reiterated that NATO has no plans to send ground troops into Ukraine, although training Ukrainian soldiers within Ukraine has been discussed.
After the New York Times reported that Russia has been increasingly disrupting Ukraine’s Starlink service, Elon Musk stated on May 24 that SpaceX is spending “significant resources combating Russian jamming efforts.” SpaceX began providing Starlink terminals to Ukraine soon after the Russian invasion in February 2022, with around 42,000 terminals currently in use by the military, hospitals, businesses, and aid organizations. Starlink is crucial for Ukrainian operations due to its superior security. The Pentagon financially supports Ukrainian military access to Starlink. Russian interference has caused widespread outages, disrupting Ukrainian communications, intelligence, and drone operations. The U.S. Pentagon is working to prevent Russian forces from using Starlink on the battlefield, though specific methods were not disclosed.
G7 finance ministers announced progress but no concrete agreement on using future income from frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine. The U.S. proposes seizing these assets, while the EU prefers using windfall profits to avoid legal issues. Discussions are ongoing, with a proposal expected by their June summit in Italy. Italy’s Finance Minister highlighted significant technical and legal challenges. The European Commission’s March proposal suggested using most funds to buy weapons for Ukraine, totaling about €3 billion annually, which Ukraine’s Justice Minister deemed insufficient. Contributions from non-EU G7 countries remain unclear.
Russia News
The Russian Ministry of Defense has canceled its annual “Army Games” international competition for the second year in a row, pleasing critical Russian ultranationalist bloggers. On May 24, Izvestia reported that the MoD decided not to hold the 2024 Army Games, citing the need for materiel and manpower in Ukraine. Russian milbloggers supported the cancellation, criticizing the Tank Biathlon event as a waste of resources, noting it uses 90-100 vehicles annually and does not test battlefield-effective tactics.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the JSC Tactical Missile Weapons Corporation in Korolev, Moscow Oblast. This visit is part of efforts to boost the Russian defense industry and economy after appointing new Defense Minister Andrey Belousov. Putin requested updates on state contracts, advance payments, and unresolved issues. He claimed that Russia has significantly increased production of ammunition, drones, and armored vehicles since 2021, emphasizing the need to use the economy effectively to ensure victory in Ukraine.
The Russian defense industry is testing and delivering new military equipment for use in Ukraine. Russian sources claim the Ministry of Defense received 9M333 anti-aircraft missiles, capable of bypassing aircraft heat traps. Additionally, Russian forces are testing the “Oduvanchik” naval drone with a 220-kilometer range, 45-knot speed, and 600-kilogram payload. They are also testing a variant of the “Titan” special purpose vehicle, now made with domestic components instead of foreign ones.
Russia’s Allies
Hungary is delaying legislation that would allow the EU to send billions from frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine, the Financial Times reported. In March, the European Commission proposed using 90% of these funds for Ukrainian weapons and 10% for the EU defense budget. Despite a political agreement on May 8, Hungary’s envoy is blocking fast-tracked payments. The EU Council finalized an agreement on May 21 to provide Ukraine with €2.5-3 billion annually, mainly for military needs, starting July 2024. Hungary agreed not to veto if its portion wasn’t used for weapons, but still opposes the legislation over concerns about automatic payments.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Russian ultranationalist sources described a recent Ukrainian strike in Russia as escalatory, likely to influence Western debates on allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons against Russia. On May 23, Ukrainian forces reportedly used a drone to strike a Voronezh-DM early warning radar system in Armavir, Krasnodar Krai, damaging the radars. Russian bloggers claimed Western involvement and linked the radar system to Russia’s nuclear capabilities. Dmitry Rogozin, former head of Roscosmos, accused the US of a long-term effort to degrade Russia’s detection capabilities and threatened retaliation. Ukrainian officials have not commented on the strike.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpo st.com