Summary of the day: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US and Singaporean officials, highlighting the upcoming Global Peace Summit at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. The importance of Western air defense systems and lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s ability to strike Russian targets was emphasized to counter Russian attacks on Kharkiv. Ukrainian commanders are training new personnel on the frontline to maintain higher force quality compared to Russian troops. An investigation revealed the forced relocation of 46 Ukrainian children from Kherson in 2022. Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and Krynky.
These updates will be shorter until the end of July and will only use the Institute for the Study of War as a source while we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
The Telegraph reported on June 1 that UK officials have directed MI5 to refocus its counterintelligence efforts on Russian, Chinese, and Iranian agents operating in the UK. Sources indicated that an increase in PRC agents and Iranian criminal groups, along with the UK’s support for Ukraine, has led to more Russian spying. The article was later removed, and further details are pending from The Telegraph.
The Russian Central Military District reported that the 201st Military Base in Tajikistan began training soldiers as FPV drone operators. This training aims to help soldiers use their combat experience from Ukraine to maintain peace and stability in Central Asia.
Russian sources continued efforts to discredit the French government. This likely responds to discussions about France allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with French weapons and potentially sending military instructors to Ukraine.
Peace Talks
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US and Singaporean officials at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, highlighting the upcoming Global Peace Summit. He discussed the battlefield situation and the need for additional air defense systems with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. Zelensky also emphasized increased cooperation with Singapore and ASEAN. He announced that 106 countries, excluding Russia, will participate in the June 15-16 summit in Switzerland, despite Russian attempts to disrupt it. Diplomatic sources reported that Saudi Arabia will not attend, following China’s decision not to send a representative.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian field commanders are compensating for training difficulties by instructing new personnel directly on the frontline. They report that new soldiers often lack basic skills, as training centers are inadequate. Many soldiers arriving from the rear also lack proper training. Ukraine faces a challenge in balancing the need to train new troops quickly while maintaining frontline defenses. Commanders suggest NATO instructors could help speed up training. Due to ongoing Russian strikes, Ukraine has no safe rear area for training, and sending troops abroad for training delays their deployment. As experienced soldiers rotate out, the overall quality of frontline troops may decrease, but new soldiers are expected to learn quickly from veterans.
Ukrainian commanders are training new personnel on the front lines, ensuring higher overall troop quality compared to Russian forces. In contrast, Russia uses inadequately trained mobilized personnel, convicts, and volunteers for mass “meat assaults,” accepting high casualties for minor gains. Russian training remains ineffective, with complaints about inadequate instruction since September 2022. Ukrainian cooperation with NATO instructors, especially within Ukraine, could further enhance the training and quality of new soldiers.
Ukrainian forces are strengthening defenses in Sumy Oblast against potential future Russian offensives. Ukrainian Northern Operational Command spokesperson Vadym Mysnyk said they are enhancing the first, second, and third defensive lines, considering local terrain for fortifications. A Russian source claimed that Russia is moving additional forces to Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian Southern Operational Command spokesperson Captain Dmytro Pletenchuk reported that Russian forces are using various aircraft for surveillance in southern Ukraine due to a shortage of long-range radar aircraft and surface ships in the Black Sea. In February 2024, Ukrainian forces downed two Russian A-50 radar aircraft, leaving Russia with six. Pletenchuk noted that Russia is even using old Be-12 amphibious aircraft, intended for decommissioning a decade ago, for low-speed patrols over the Black Sea and Sea of Azov.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Western air defense systems and lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western weapons to strike Russian territory are crucial for defending Kharkiv City from Russian missile and glide bomb attacks. Recently, a dozen Western countries eased these restrictions, allowing Ukraine to target Russian firing and staging areas near the border. Ukrainian forces have successfully downed Russian aircraft in frontline areas and can likely replicate this with Western systems to protect Kharkiv. President Zelensky noted that receiving two Patriot air defense systems would help prevent Russian forces from seizing Kharkiv, though their effectiveness is limited without the ability to target Russian aircraft in Russian airspace.
Russian forces made slight advances southwest of Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City, amid ongoing fighting. Geolocated footage showed Russian mechanized assaults near Starytsya. Russian sources claimed Ukrainian forces are failing in counterattacks in northern and central Vovchansk and the forests between Hlyboke and Lukyantsi. Fighting in Vovchansk and near Lyptsi is reportedly becoming positional.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line with no confirmed changes to the frontline. A Russian source claimed an advance of up to 300 meters south of Stepova Novoselivka, but this is unconfirmed. Fighting persisted near Stelmakhivka, Myasozharivka, Andriivka, Druzhelyubivka, Nevske, Terny, Dibrova, and the Serebryanske forest area.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
The Ukrainian General Staff reported continued Russian offensives near Vyimka and Rozdolivka in the Siversk direction. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have repelled a Ukrainian counterattack near Rozdolivka, while a Russian source reported Russian forces advanced to positions 2.7 kilometers from Vyimka. Additionally, a Russian source claimed Ukrainian forces struck the “Knauf” gypsum plant in Soledar with HIMARS, targeting Russian forces resulting in four deaths and seven injuries. Social media footage showed the aftermath of the strike, suggesting more Russian casualties.
Chasiv Yar
Russian sources claimed marginal advances in and around northeastern Chasiv Yar, though no evidence confirms this. They reported advances to central Kalynivka, fields northeast of Kalynivka, south of Chasiv Yar, and in northeastern Chasiv Yar. Russian forces continued offensives in eastern Chasiv Yar and near Kalynivka, Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, and Niu York. Reports indicate that Russian forces used TOS-1A and TOS-2 thermobaric artillery to force Ukrainian troops to abandon positions in southeastern Chasiv Yar, with Ukrainian forces counterattacking.
Avdiivka
Russian forces made slight advances northwest of Avdiivka and continued offensive operations in the area. Geolocated footage shows marginal advances west of Solovyove. Russian sources gave differing reports on the extent of advances near Sokil, with some claiming a 1-1.5 km advance and others reporting fighting on the outskirts. Russian offensives continued near Novooleksandrivka, Sokil, Umanske, Yasnobrodivka, and Netaylove. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed the capture of Umanske and reported Ukrainian counterattacks near Novooleksandrivka, Solovyove, Sokil, and Novopokrovske.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces recently made limited advances southwest of Donetsk City during continued offensive operations. Geolocated footage showed Russian advances north of Volodymyrivka. Russian forces conducted assaults west of Donetsk City near Krasnohorivka and southwest near Vodyane, Kostyantynivka, and Paraskoviivka. A Kremlin-affiliated source claimed that Russian engineers are developing remote robotic platforms to deliver supplies to the Vuhledar frontline.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian sources claimed advances near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border, but there is no evidence to confirm this. Russian forces continued offensives near Staromayorske and Urozhaine. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported gaining advantageous positions. A Kremlin-affiliated blogger claimed that Russian forces advanced north in Staromayorske and on its eastern outskirts. They also mentioned Ukrainian drone operations slowing Russian forces. Another source described a “carousel” tactic, allowing Russian tanks to fire continuously while reloading.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces reportedly made recent advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast, but there were no confirmed frontline changes. A Russian source claimed an advance north of Myrne, though this is unconfirmed. Fighting continued near Robotyne, Verbove, and Mala Tokmachka. Russian forces are active near Mala Tokmachka. Russian troops near Robotyne have retrofitted motorcycles with metal cages to protect against drone strikes, though some sources criticize this measure as ineffective. Russian forces are increasingly using motorcycles and ATVs in ground assaults.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
On the evening of May 31, positional fighting continued in eastern Kherson Oblast near Krynky, but no fighting was reported on June 1. A Russian source claimed that Russian forces are active on Frolova and Nestryha islands in the Dnipro River Delta and near Kozachi Laheri and Korsunka.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russia fired an Iskander-K cruise missile from Crimea, an S-300 missile from Donetsk, and 25 Shahed-136/131 drones from Krasnodar Krai and Crimea. Ukrainian forces destroyed all 25 drones over multiple oblasts, including Mykolaiv and Kyiv. In Kharkiv, an Iskander-M missile struck a medical facility in Izyum, causing minor damage. In Mykolaiv, debris from downed drones caused a fire at an industrial site. An unspecified cruise missile was downed over Kryvyi Rih Raion in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration Head Ivan Fedorov reported that the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant in Zaporizhzhia was critically damaged by Russian strikes between May 31 and June 1. The bridge over the dam is completely closed to traffic, and it’s unclear when it will reopen. Fedorov also stated that officials are not discussing when the power plant will resume electricity generation.
Life In Russian-Occupied Ukraine
The New York Times published an investigation into the forced relocation and deportation of 46 Ukrainian children from a foster home in occupied Kherson Oblast in 2022. The investigation used photos, social media posts, and government documents, concluding that Russian officials were involved and are withholding the children from their families to strip them of their Ukrainian identities. The report found that 22 of these children were listed for adoption in Russia, with at least two placed with Russian families. Legal experts consulted by the NYT stated this may violate the Convention on the Rights of the Child and constitute a war crime.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces reportedly struck Russian military targets in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts. Russian sources claimed Ukrainian forces hit a column of Russian vehicles in Sudzha, Kursk Oblast, and the Russian Ministry of Defense said a Ukrainian drone was destroyed over Kursk. Critics noted Russian forces’ vulnerability from operating in long columns. Reports indicated the column had 18 vehicles. In Belgorod Oblast, an MLRS strike on Shebekino killed the Deputy Head of Korochansky Raion and injured several officials. Another report mentioned a strike on a Russian supply base in Shebekino. Ukrainian officials have not commented, and there’s no evidence of Western weapons used in these strikes.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia continues to indoctrinate minors into military-political thinking for future force generation. On June 1, the “Movement of the First” youth group called for those over 16 to join a military-patriotic education competition. About 50,000 participants are expected, with finalists gaining opportunities like university credits, museum trips, and training at the Russian Spetsnaz University. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger praised the initiative for teaching military skills and “patriotic education.”
Russian milbloggers criticized the Ministry of Defense for not removing incompetent commanders, citing the recent reappointment of Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov as head of the St. Petersburg Naval Academy. One milblogger indirectly criticized Yevmenov and the MoD through a fictional story about “Laos” (representing Russia), where the president (Putin) reassigned the “Grandfather” (Yevmenov) to another post, leading to concerns about poor leadership. Another milblogger made a similar connection between the story and Yevmenov’s new role.
Russian ultranationalists are urging the use of public-private partnerships to provide electronic warfare (EW) systems for the military in Ukraine. Dmitry Rogozin, a former Storm-Z instructor and ex-Rostec head, suggested that this approach would enable smaller manufacturers to innovate while state institutions mass-produce parts. He noted that state-produced EW systems are often outdated by the time they reach the front. Rogozin also proposed forming “IT Spetsnaz” units to operate and improve these products. A prominent milblogger supported this idea, questioning why the state produces ineffective drones while frontline forces and volunteers are already innovating.
Russia is recruiting youth to work at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Tatarstan, which produces Iranian-designed drones. Russian opposition outlet Sota reported that teenagers are being recruited through TikTok for jobs at the Alabuga SEZ Shahed drone production facility. Additionally, there are reports of job advertisements targeting young people in Africa and others seeking educational benefits.
Russia’s Allies
Belarusian House of Representatives Chairperson Igor Sergeenko and Russian State Duma Chairperson Vyacheslav Volodin discussed strengthening interparliamentary cooperation within the Union State of Russia and Belarus during their visits to Kazakhstan. Sergeenko informed Volodin that the Belarusian National Assembly formed a group with 23 House of Representatives deputies and 13 Republic Council members in the Union State Parliamentary Assembly. They also noted that trade between Belarus and Russia reached $53.3 billion in 2023.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Russian war commentator Alexander Artamonov faced backlash from Kremlin-affiliated propagandists for calling Ukrainians “second-class citizens,” contradicting the Kremlin’s narrative of unity between Russians and Ukrainians. On June 1, Artamonov made these remarks on Russian state television, prompting criticism from figures like State Duma Deputy Maria Butina and ultranationalist Zakhar Prilepin. They reiterated the false narrative that Russians and Ukrainians are the same people. This incident highlights the Kremlin’s attempt to erase Ukrainian identity to justify its invasion of Ukraine. In occupied territories, Russian forces have subjected Ukrainians to violence, theft, persecution, and forced conscription.
Russia is intensifying efforts to discredit Ukraine’s new mobilization law and undermine trust in the Ukrainian government. On June 2, the Ukrainian Ground Forces reported that Russian units are spreading fake videos of people in Ukrainian military and police uniforms committing violent acts. These videos are filmed in occupied Ukraine with obscured locations and poor-quality footage to mimic civilian phone recordings. Russian milbloggers have been widely sharing these videos recently.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated its usual rhetoric about cooperation with China, perceived Western aggression, and the war in Ukraine. The MFA portrayed most of the world as supporting Russia and opposing the West.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org