Summary of the day: Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined his uncompromising demands for Ukraine’s capitulation as a prerequisite for “peace” negotiations, including the recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of occupied and Ukrainian-controlled territory in eastern and southern Ukraine, to undermine the June 15-16 Global Peace Summit in Switzerland. Putin also proposed establishing an alternative Eurasian and world security system with support from Chinese President Xi Jinping, likely to undermine NATO. The Kremlin has frequently timed the intensification of its information operations, including negotiations, to coincide with major policy debates in the West to influence Western decision-making. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces conducted a large series of drone strikes against Russia, and Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
These updates will be shorter until the end of July and will only use the Institute for the Study of War as a source while we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.
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Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Putin proposed establishing an alternative Eurasian and global security system, likely aiming to undermine NATO. He claimed the Euro-Atlantic security system is collapsing and Western security schemes in Europe are ineffective. Putin outlined a five-step proposal for a new Eurasian collective security system, which he claimed complements China’s global security initiative, according to Xi Jinping. Putin invited European and NATO countries to join this system, implying they should abandon NATO and the North Atlantic Treaty principles. Despite these overtures, Russia continues to attack and undermine NATO members through increased sabotage, cyberattacks, and hostile actions.
Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev promoted Kremlin narratives aimed at exploiting Moldovan identity politics to disrupt Moldova’s EU accession and destabilize Moldovan society. He claimed that Moldovan President Sandu’s efforts towards EU accession would lead Moldova into “neocolonial slavery,” despite polls showing majority support for EU integration. Medvedev also targeted Moldovan-Romanian relations, suggesting that EU membership would turn Moldova into Romania’s “northeastern outskirts” and lead to the repression and forced Romanianization of Moldovans. He accused Romania of occupying Bessarabia in the past, omitting the Soviet Union’s role in claiming the region. These narratives differ from Kremlin claims about Ukraine’s lack of a unique identity separate from Russia and aim to appeal to Moldovans who fear that Western integration would lead to unification with Romania.
The Kremlin is spending at least $2 million monthly to fund Moldovan opposition affiliates linked to Ilan Shor, aiming to destabilize Moldova and prevent its EU accession. The money is used to pay off debts from previous elections and protests and is smuggled into Moldova by “carriers.” Shor and his associates have allegedly bribed voters and paid protesters to demonstrate against President Sandu. Moldovan authorities recently confiscated over $1 million from Kremlin-linked opposition politicians at the Chisinau airport.
Medvedev threatened Armenia as its Security Council Secretary, Armen Grigoryan, prepared to attend the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland. Grigoryan had previously faced Russian condemnation for participating in a similar Ukrainian-led forum. Medvedev accused the West of trying to damage Armenia’s friendship with Russia and warned that Armenian efforts to join the EU would fail, leading to a situation like Ukraine. This follows Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan’s announcement that Armenia will decide when to leave the Russia-led CSTO and his accusation that Russia and Belarus helped Azerbaijan prepare for the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. Leaked documents also revealed Belarus provided military equipment to Azerbaijan between 2018 and 2022, which was used in recent conflicts against Armenia.
Peace Talks
Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined his uncompromising demands for Ukraine’s capitulation as a prerequisite for “peace” negotiations, including Ukraine’s withdrawal from and recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of occupied and Ukrainian-controlled territory in eastern and southern Ukraine, to undermine the June 15-16 Global Peace Summit in Switzerland. Putin demanded that Ukraine cede 18% of its territory, including the strategic cities of Zaporizhia and Kherson, and abandon its NATO aspirations before Russia agrees to a ceasefire. He also called for international recognition of the annexed regions as part of Russia and the lifting of Western sanctions.
Putin reiterated his previous conditions for “peace,” demanding that Ukraine agree to full demilitarization, “denazification” (regime change), and abandoning its aspirations to join external security blocs. He claimed that Ukraine must make these decisions independently, not on orders from its “Western masters,” and insisted that any peace format without Russian participation would be “impossible” to resolve the war, labeling Western and Ukrainian policies against negotiating with Russia as “idiotic.”
Putin’s demands reflect his long-standing ultimatums that deny Ukraine’s independence and sovereignty, aiming to persuade the West to compromise on these principles. Ukrainian President Zelensky and NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg emphasized that Russia must withdraw from Ukrainian territory, and Putin’s demands signal his unchanged military objectives. Russian milbloggers called the demands unachievable and reminiscent of previous absurd ultimatums. The Kremlin denied framing the speech as an ultimatum but likely only feigns interest in negotiations to pressure the West into making concessions that violate Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Russian hackers have reportedly increased cyberattacks against Swiss government websites and organizations participating in the upcoming peace summit. The Swiss National Cyber Security Center noted the possibility of similar attacks during the summit itself. A Russian hacker group claimed responsibility for DDoS attacks on Swiss internet infrastructure and threatened further attacks, likely to sabotage the peace talks.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
The Biden Administration has no immediate plans to lift restrictions on Ukrainian forces striking military targets deep in Russian territory with U.S.-provided weapons, according to a senior U.S. Department of Defense official. While there is ongoing reassessment of the policy, no significant change is expected soon. The administration’s recent limited policy change, allowing Ukraine to strike some Russian military targets in a small area within Russia, has only reduced Russia’s ground sanctuary by a maximum of 16%. Experts assess that the West could significantly disrupt Russian operations by permitting Ukraine to use Western weapons to strike Russia’s operational and deep rear areas.
Satellite images from June 13 revealed Ukrainian strikes on June 11-12 destroyed a Russian S-400 air defense system, including a radar, tractor, and missile launcher, near Belbek Airfield in Crimea.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast but made no confirmed frontline changes. Fighting persisted near Lyptsi, Hlyboke, Vovchansk, and Tykhe. President Putin framed the offensive as an effort to create a “buffer zone” to protect Russian border areas, acknowledging that Ukrainian forces remain close enough to strike Russian territory. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces suffered around 4,000 casualties in Kharkiv Oblast between May 10 and June 10.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line but made no confirmed frontline changes. They attacked near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Pishchane, Stelmakhivka, Berestove, Hrekivka, and Nevske. A Russian milblogger claimed marginal advances near Synkivka, but this remains unconfirmed. Russian military units are reportedly operating in the Kupyansk direction and near Berestove.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued ground attacks near Siversk but made no confirmed frontline changes. They reportedly attacked near Rozdolivka, along the railway line towards Vyimka, and near Verkhnokamyanske. Some Russian sources claimed that Russian forces had seized the Bilohorivka chalk quarry, but this remains unverified. Russian airborne units are said to be operating south of Siversk.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar but made no confirmed frontline changes. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces gained a foothold in the western part of the Novyi Microraion in eastern Chasiv Yar, with Russian forces seizing several high-rise buildings. Ukrainian forces reported that Russian forces are attacking southeast of Chasiv Yar near Klishchiivka and Andriivka to bypass and attack Ukrainian rear positions, using small infantry groups with mechanized support and intensified drone usage. Fighting also continued northeast and east of Chasiv Yar near Kalynivka and Ivanivske.
Avdiivka
Russian forces recently made advances northwest of Avdiivka during a reinforced company-sized mechanized assault, as part of ongoing offensive operations in the area. Geolocated footage shows Russian gains southeast of Novoselivka Persha and northeast of Sokil. Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed eight Russian tanks and eight infantry fighting vehicles during the assault. Russian milbloggers claimed additional advances near Novooleksandrivka, Novopokrovske, Umanske, Karlivka, and Nevelske. The Ukrainian General Staff reported intense Russian assaults in the Pokrovsk (Avdiivka) direction.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces seized Heorhiivka and advanced in eastern Maksymilianivka, west of Donetsk City, during a reduced battalion-sized mechanized assault. Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces used 28 armored vehicles, of which 13 were destroyed. Geolocated footage showed Russian gains in central Krasnohorivka and northwest of Solodke. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian units are advancing in Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and on the outskirts of Maksymilianivka. Fighting continued southwest of Donetsk City near Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces launched ground attacks near Staromayorske and Urozhaine in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia region, with elements of the Russian 30th Artillery Brigade involved in operations around Urozhaine.
Zaporizhia Line
Clashes occurred near Robotyne, Verbove, and Mala Tokmachka in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Fighting persisted in eastern Kherson Oblast, including near Krynky and on islands in the Dnipro River Delta.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a barrage of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine overnight on June 13-14. This included cruise missiles from Russia, ballistic missiles from Crimea and Krasnodar, and Iranian-made drones from southern Russia. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted several of the incoming missiles and drones over multiple oblasts. Russian officials claimed strikes on air bases and an intelligence center, but these claims remain unverified.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces launched a major drone strike against Russia on the night of June 13-14, targeting the Morozovsk Airbase in Rostov Oblast. The strike damaged an electrical substation and an aircraft hangar at the base. Additional footage showed an explosion and smoke over the airbase and Rostov-on-Don. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that air defenses destroyed 70 drones over Rostov Oblast and several more over Voronezh and Kursk oblasts. In Voronezh Oblast, debris from downed Ukrainian drones reportedly damaged fuel tanks at an oil depot.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed there are currently around 700,000 Russian personnel involved in the “special military operation” in Ukraine and border areas within Russia. This figure is higher than his previous claim of 617,000 in December 2023. Ukrainian military officials have estimated between 510,000-515,000 Russian troops are deployed in occupied Ukraine, with plans to concentrate an additional 50,000-70,000 forces in Russia near the Kharkiv and Sumy regions. Putin’s stated number may be exaggerated or include various combat and non-combat Russian forces.
Putin stated Russia’s military needs younger commanders with a “modern approach,” while valuing experienced leaders. He noted the average ages of military district/force grouping commanders (56), army commanders (50), and division commanders (46). Putin claimed “a lot has changed” regarding Armed Forces organization and promoting promising personnel during the war. His comments likely refer to efforts to rapidly generate more commissioned officers, potentially at the expense of professionalism.
Russian officials continue offering large one-time payments to recruit contract military personnel (kontraktniki). The head of Karachay-Cherkessia Republic stated they will provide a record one-time payment of 1.305 million rubles (around $14,600) to new kontraktniki. St. Petersburg and Krasnodar Krai are offering over $12,000 and $11,000 respectively. The drastically increasing enlistment bonuses indicate Russia is heavily relying on expensive financial incentives for force generation efforts.
Russia’s Allies
According to a South Korean defense official, North Korea may have sent up to 4.8 million artillery shells to Russia. The defense minister stated they detected at least 10,000 shipping containers moving from North Korea to Russia, which could contain that many shells. He also claimed North Korea sent dozens of ballistic missiles to Russia in exchange for conventional weapons like tanks, aircraft, and satellite technology. The minister expects Russia’s Putin to try to acquire more North Korean munitions during an upcoming visit.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Putin’s June 14 speech, timed to coincide with the Ukrainian-led peace summit and key Western policy discussions, aims to mislead the international community and undermine foreign participation in the summit. This intensification of rhetoric is part of Russia’s campaign to push the West to adopt policies favoring Russian interests. Putin likely seeks to weaken Western unity in supporting Ukraine, influence ongoing policy debates on seizing Russian assets, deploying Western trainers, and allowing Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia, and prevent further sanctions following recent U.S. and British measures.
Putin and Medvedev denounced Western colonialism while ignoring Russia’s own imperial history and current aspirations to dominate its neighbors. Putin accused the U.S. of spreading its ideology and maintaining imperial status. Medvedev claimed Russia’s United Russia party founded an anti-neocolonial movement to counter Western influence, particularly in countries bordering Russia. The movement aims to unite a Russian-led “world majority” against neocolonialism and neo-Nazism, with plans to discuss implementation in Vladivostok. However, they disregarded Russia’s historical and ongoing efforts to assert dominance over neighboring nations.
Putin grossly misrepresented Russia’s original objective of seizing Kyiv and overthrowing Ukraine’s government in 2022. He falsely claimed the Kremlin did not plan an assault on Kyiv, stating the offensive there was merely to force peace talks over Donbas. This contradicts evidence of Russian plans for victory parades in Kyiv. Putin repeated the false justification that Russia invaded preemptively to stop a Ukrainian assault on occupied Donbas, a narrative western officials had debunked by exposing Russian false flag plans. Putin appears to be rewriting history to falsely portray Ukraine as the aggressor in Russia’s unprovoked war.
Putin repeated the false Russian narrative that Western officials pressured Ukraine to reject a favorable agreement during 2022 negotiations in Istanbul. He claimed Russia was open to Ukraine receiving NATO-like security guarantees without formally joining NATO, contradicting Russia’s stated demands of overthrowing Ukraine’s government and destroying its military. Putin also falsely portrayed Russia’s withdrawal from Kyiv as creating conditions for negotiations, failing to acknowledge Ukraine’s successful resistance which inflicted major Russian losses. Putin appears to be rewriting history to justify Russia’s invasion and cover up its military failures.
Putin pushed a false narrative claiming Russia did not initially intend to control parts of Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts but decided to after staging sham referendums. He alleged a foreign official (former Israeli PM Bennett) asked why Russia attacked those areas if only interested in Donbas. Putin claimed he responded that it was to bypass Ukrainian fortifications around Mariupol, not ruling out letting Ukraine maintain sovereignty over those regions if allowing Russia land access to Crimea. However, Putin said he later illegally annexed those areas based on the referendums Russia orchestrated, likely an attempt to legitimize the occupation. This contradicts evidence of Russia’s objectives to conquer Ukrainian territory from the start of its full-scale invasion.
Putin promoted several disinformation narratives aimed at destabilizing Ukraine and undermining Western support during his speech to the Russian Foreign Ministry. He claimed the “Ukrainian crisis” could lead to dire global consequences, attempting to pressure the international community to abandon Ukraine. Putin falsely stated the West is forcing Ukraine to mobilize more men to destroy Russia, exploiting grievances over mobilization. He portrayed Ukrainian President Zelenskyy as illegitimate for postponing elections during martial law, falsely claiming only the Rada remains legitimate, though the constitution allows this. These narratives are part of an ongoing Russian information operation seeking to trigger social unrest and destabilize Ukraine’s government.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org