Summary of the day: Putin’s June 14 information operation about Russia’s supposed willingness to negotiate on extreme terms is succeeding in confusing the purpose of the Ukrainian-initiated Global Peace Summit in Switzerland, with several Western officials recognizing Russia’s attempts to derail the summit’s focus. Meanwhile, Ukrainian First Deputy Defense Minister Havrylyuk reported that Western military assistance has begun to arrive but will likely not significantly impact the frontline for several weeks to months. Russian forces made marginal advances near Kupyansk and Avdiivka. In other developments, Dmitry Medvedev replaced Andrey Turchak as United Russia Party Secretary, Putin is preparing trusted “veterans” for government roles, and a Russian fighter-bomber briefly violated Swedish airspace. Additionally, an investigation found that Russian officials have put forcibly deported Ukrainian children up for adoption in Russia.
These updates will be shorter until the end of July and will only use the Institute for the Study of War as a source while we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.
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Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
A Russian Su-24 fighter-bomber briefly violated Swedish airspace near Gotland on June 14, the first such incident since 2022. Swedish aircraft forced the Russian plane out after it ignored verbal warnings. Russian aircraft also violated Finnish airspace multiple times on June 10. These incursions likely aim to discourage European states, particularly new NATO members Sweden and Finland, from supporting Ukraine and participating in NATO’s efforts to assist Ukraine, as both countries prepare for the upcoming NATO summit in Washington.
Peace Talks
Putin’s June 14 information operation about Russia’s willingness to negotiate on extreme terms is confusing the purpose of the Ukrainian-initiated Global Peace Summit in Switzerland. The summit aimed to facilitate multilateral dialogue for a fair peace based on international law. However, Putin’s operation partially succeeded in shifting the focus to Russia’s absence, rather than allowing participants to gather support for Ukraine and involve the international community in ending the war. Ukraine stated that it could present a joint peace plan to Russia at a second summit if a Russian representative attends.
Putin outlined his demands for “peace” negotiations in Ukraine just before the Global Peace Summit, aiming to undermine Western support for legitimate Ukrainian demands and divert attention from building international consensus against an unjust Russian victory. His prerequisites included recognizing Russia’s illegal annexations, Ukraine’s demilitarization and “denazification” (replacing the government with pro-Russian proxies), and abandoning efforts to join security blocs—the same demands he made before the 2022 invasion. Putin’s misleading overture about his willingness to negotiate reoriented discourse to highlight his absence from the summit, despite his lack of interest in upholding UN Charter principles in his war of conquest.
Several Western leaders acknowledged Russia’s attempts to derail the Global Peace Summit’s purpose and shift focus to Russia’s absence. U.S. Vice President Harris called Putin’s June 14 proposal a call for Ukraine’s surrender, not negotiations. Dutch PM Rutte said Russia should be involved eventually but noted Putin’s current disinterest and “ridiculous” proposal. German Chancellor Scholz stated peace cannot be achieved without Russia but recognized its refusal of calls for peace. A U.S. UN representative said Russia convened the UNSC to divert attention from the summit and its war in Ukraine.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov amplified Russian information operations to discredit and disrupt the Global Peace Summit. Peskov criticized the West’s “unconstructive” responses to President Vladimir Putin’s ultimatums and hoped for a more “constructive” summit later. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed discussing Putin’s demands is necessary for peace and “saving the world.” State Duma Chairperson Vyacheslav Volodin called the summit meaningless and pushed narratives to delegitimize Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Russia often feigns interest in negotiations to influence Western decisions and extract concessions on Ukraine’s sovereignty. Forcing Ukraine into talks before Russia abandons its ambitions would likely not bring lasting peace and only give Putin time to prepare for future invasions.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian First Deputy Defense Minister Lt. Gen. Ivan Havrylyuk reported that some Western military aid has arrived in Ukraine, reducing the artillery shortage, but most of the assistance announced in April 2024 is still pending. The aid’s impact on the frontline will likely take weeks to months. Havrylyuk hopes future arrivals of F-16s, and air defense assets will improve Ukraine’s ability to defend its airspace. Frontline commanders confirmed receiving limited Western shells but not at the scale needed. The Czech Foreign Minister announced the arrival of the first round of ammunition from their initiative, with plans to continue supplies throughout 2024.
Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov visited a Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) command post on June 14. He observed VKS personnel operating Iranian Mohajer-6 drones, which Russia has tried to downplay possessing. Belousov was briefed on VKS airstrikes in southern Donetsk and Russia’s aviation, air defense and drone capabilities. Some milbloggers hope this signals increased Su-34 aircraft production to support airstrikes against Ukrainian forces.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russian forces launch around 100-112 guided bombs per day targeting civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. He said Russia aims to trigger evacuations through these airstrikes on civilians to ease the seizure and occupation of villages and cities.
A pro-Kremlin military correspondent highlighted data claiming Russian forces have launched at least 1,900 “Lancet” loitering munition drones in Ukraine since the full-scale invasion began. The report stated Russia has used far more Lancets in Ukraine compared to previous deployment in Syria. It also reiterated claims Russia is developing an upgraded autonomous swarming version called “Izdeliye-53,” though its operational use remains unverified. The figures aim to showcase Russia’s intensive use of loitering munitions against Ukrainian targets.
Elements of the Russian Baltic and Pacific fleets are conducting separate naval drills. The Baltic Fleet is holding search and rescue exercises focused on aiding damaged ships. Meanwhile, Russian warships Varyag missile cruiser and Marshal Shaposhnikov frigate departed Egypt to participate in joint maneuvers with the Egyptian Navy, including communications training and inspection actions under the “PASSEX” format.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Reports circulated claiming that Ukrainian forces encircled up to 400 Russian soldiers and captured dozens as prisoners of war (POWs) near the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant in Kharkiv Oblast. However, these claims remain unverified. A Russian milblogger initially suggested that Ukrainian forces isolated Russian troops in the plant but later clarified that the post referred to temporary logistics issues, not encirclement. A Telegram channel representing the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces denied the claims, asserting that Russian forces control the plant’s outskirts, though this also lacks visual confirmation.
Russian forces continued attacks north and northeast of Kharkiv City, targeting areas near Lyptsi, Hlyboke, Vovchansk, and Tykhe. However, there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in these areas.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made advances northwest of Berestove while continuing attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. A Russian milblogger claimed gains east of Synkivka, but this lacks visual confirmation. Ukrainian forces reportedly captured several Russian positions in the Serebryanske forest area. Fighting persisted near Petropavlivka, Synkivka, Pishchane, Stelmakhivka, Berestove, Andriivka, Makiivka, Hrekivka, Nevske, and Torske.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Siversk but made no confirmed advances. Russian milbloggers claimed gains near Rozdolivka and west of Vesele, south of Siversk. The Ukrainian General Staff reported ongoing Russian ground attacks near Rozdolivka.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued ground attacks east of Chasiv Yar on June 15, with claims of limited advances in northern areas but no confirmed frontline shifts. Fighting remains intense around Chasiv Yar, Bohdanivka, and southeast toward Kurdyumivka, with both sides facing difficult terrain. The situation remains uncertain amidst the fog of war.
A Ukrainian drone battalion commander reported that Russian forces have increased the use of chemical agents, including mixing unspecified chemicals with the banned riot control agent chloropicrin, in the Chasiv Yar direction. Despite being a signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention prohibiting such use, Russia has consistently employed chloropicrin which can cause severe injuries and death.
Avdiivka
Russian forces made marginal advances northwest of Avdiivka amid continued offensive operations. Confirmed advances occurred near southern Sokil. Russian milbloggers claimed gains in nearby areas like Karlivka and towards Novoselivka Persha, but these remain unverified. Intense fighting continues around Novooleksandrivka, Kalynove, Novopokrovske, and Yevhenivka in the Avdiivka region.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued offensive operations west and southwest of Donetsk City, with ongoing fighting but no confirmed frontline changes. Claims were made of Russian forces pushing into Paraskoviivka and initiating combat near Maksymilianivka after seizing Heorhiivka, though the situation remains contested. Intense battles persist around Krasnohorivka, Pobieda, Solodke, and Vodyane as Russia tries to leverage gains from renewed attacks near Nevelske.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area, with claimed advances north of Zahirne toward Myrne remaining unconfirmed. Fighting persisted south of Velyka Novosilka around Staromayorske and Urozhaine. Russian air forces targeted Ukrainian positions near Hulyaipole, while ground elements of the 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade operated around Urozhaine, but no confirmed frontline shifts occurred.
Zaporizhia Line
Positional battles continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast on June 15 with no confirmed frontline shifts. Fighting was reported near Robotyne, Verbove, and Mala Tokmachka. Russian milbloggers cited challenges from Ukrainian drone strikes, remote mining, and Russian electronic warfare deficiencies hindering vehicle movement in the area. Unspecified Russian reserve personnel are allegedly operating around Kamianske.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Positional fighting persisted in east bank Kherson Oblast, with no confirmed frontline changes. Engagements occurred near Krynky, Kozachi Laheri, and the Dnipro River Delta islands. Notably, Russian milbloggers claimed many Russian troops in the Kherson area are intoxicated, leading to unnecessary casualties, and called for banning alcohol possession near the front lines.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
A Financial Times investigation found Russian officials have put Ukrainian children up for adoption after forcibly deporting them from occupied Ukraine. The report identified 4 children aged 8-15 on a Russian adoption website, with changed names and no mention of their Ukrainian origins. They were transported to Crimea, Tula and Orenburg oblasts. Experts stated this systematic forced deportation and attempted assimilation of children constitutes a war crime. Ukraine has verified nearly 20,000 children were deported to Russia.
Russian occupation authorities are intensifying efforts to militarize Ukrainian youth in occupied territories. Programs include a summer camp in Russia’s Volgograd region where teenagers from occupied Luhansk will learn drone piloting, weapons training, tactics and military medicine. Occupation officials in Kherson region announced plans to create specialized classes taught by Russian security forces at schools, starting September 1. Additionally, Russian military personnel provided weapons handling training to 60 minors as part of a youth militarization program in occupied Mariupol. These measures aim to prepare Ukrainian children for future service in Russian forces and instill pro-Russian ideology.
Russia News
Dmitry Medvedev, Chairperson of the United Russia Party, officially replaced party Secretary Andrey Turchak with Vladimir Yakushev, the acting Russian Presidential Plenipotentiary Envoy to the Ural Federal District. Turchak formally resigned on June 15 after being demoted to acting governor of the Altai Republic, likely due to his prior Wagner Group affiliation and failure to execute Putin’s vision for involving veterans in government. Yakushev, with a background in law, finance, and economics, will retain his envoy position while taking on the party secretary role, a contradictory arrangement that has led to speculation about the Kremlin’s administrative strategy.
President Putin is grooming trusted, Kremlin-affiliated “veterans” for government positions, likely to appease Russian servicemen and war supporters. In a seemingly staged interaction with former Krasnodar Mayor Yevgeny Pervyshov, now a State Duma Deputy and military volunteer, Putin expressed interest in Pervyshov’s political career and hinted at an unspecified “proposal” for him. Pervyshov reportedly fought in a UAV brigade linked to the Donetsk People’s Republic. Commentators noted Pervyshov’s past involvement in a fraud case, suggesting his decision to fight was not coincidental.
The “Time of Heroes” initiative, started in April 2024, trains Russian war veterans to take government roles, with Pervyshov’s appearance likely part of the Kremlin’s effort to appease the growing veteran population. This may incentivize Russians to fight in Ukraine by portraying military service as a path to a public service career. Former United Russia Party Secretary Andrey Turchak and State Duma Deputy Dmitry Sablin created the BARS “Kaskad” Battalion in 2017, recruiting officials and party members to fight in Luhansk. Putin entrusted Turchak with having veterans run in primaries and join the State Duma, but Turchak reportedly failed due to resistance from local businessmen. Putin is likely continuing this objective through “Time of Heroes” following Turchak’s demotion.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian President Vladimir Putin awarded honorific titles to several Russian military units on June 14. This included naming the 389th Reconnaissance Point after a Soviet war hero and bestowing the “Guards” title to the 1466th and 1472nd motorized rifle regiments currently operating in Ukraine. These honors recognize the units’ roles, while Russia and Egypt also previously conducted joint naval drills in 2015 and 2018.
Russian milbloggers continue developing unmanned vehicles through crowdfunding efforts. One milblogger claimed to have created a small-wheeled drone that can carry up to 100kg, intended for evacuating wounded troops or delivering supplies to the frontline. Another claimed former Wagner members developed an attack-transport drone named “Perun” that can land behind enemy lines to rescue personnel and deliver ammunition. These claims highlight Russian milbloggers’ roles in funding and promoting new unmanned systems for use in Ukraine.
Russian milbloggers complained that bureaucratic limitations on private developers and companies are hindering Russia’s efforts to rapidly develop new military equipment.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Russian bots on X (Twitter) are posting images with fake anti-Ukraine and anti-West quotes attributed to popular Western celebrities as part of an information operation. The fake quotes in multiple languages criticize Western support for Ukraine and European unity. Opposition outlets reported over 50 such images since January garnering hundreds of thousands of views, with a heavy surge after recent European Parliament elections attacking EU politicians. The coordinated campaigns aim to undermine Western backing for Ukraine through disinformation targeting public figures.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org