Summary of the day: NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg stated that NATO may enhance its nuclear deterrence, eliciting varying responses from Kremlin officials. Russian President Putin dismissed four deputy defense ministers and replaced them with relatives and advisors, supporting his efforts to introduce family members to the public and install economic advisors to improve the wartime economy. Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka, while Russia reportedly faces issues with artillery shell production and select artillery systems. The Kremlin confirmed Putin’s upcoming official state visit to North Korea on June 18-19.
These updates will be shorter until the end of July and will only use the Institute for the Study of War as a source while we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.
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Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that NATO may enhance its nuclear deterrence by removing missiles from storage and placing them on heightened readiness, citing growing threats from Russia and China. Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Director Sergei Naryshkin calmly characterized the statement as regular “exercises,” while Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed it was an escalation of tension. Naryshkin’s response notably differed from Peskov’s, and he has previously expressed opinions straying from Kremlin narratives.
The head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, contradicted ongoing false Russian claims that the U.S. is establishing a military base in Armenia. Naryshkin stated it is too early to discuss the possibility of a U.S. base in Armenia related to Armenia’s changing policies toward Russia. Russian state media has repeatedly spread disinformation alleging the U.S. has constructed or plans to build a military base and biological weapons facilities in Armenia. However, Naryshkin’s comments undermine these Russian disinformation narratives aimed at discrediting Armenia’s efforts to distance itself from Russia.
The Kremlin is likely working to destabilize the Dayton Accords governing Bosnia by cultivating propaganda assets in Republika Srpska, the Serb entity within Bosnia. A pro-Russian milblogger recently met with a Republika Srpska official and agreed on “strategic cooperation.” The milblogger stated he will conduct research, analytics, and train local journalists – efforts that could amplify Russian disinformation and sow instability in the region. This appears to be part of broader Russian attempts to undermine the Western-brokered peace agreement in Bosnia through aligned Serbian nationalist elements.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
The Ukrainian military reports that since around May 1st, their forces have struck 15 Russian S-300, S-350, and S-400 air defense systems located in Russian-occupied Crimea. These strikes are said to have destroyed dozens of missile launchers, over 15 radar stations, and more than 10 command posts belonging to the Russian air defense infrastructure on the Crimean peninsula.
According to a Ukrainian naval spokesperson, Ukraine’s strikes have significantly constrained Russia’s ability to operate and conduct amphibious operations in the Black Sea. The strikes have destroyed 28 Russian naval vessels and boats, while Russia is repairing 10 more damaged ships. Russia has pulled its missile carriers from Sevastopol and is instead loading cruise missiles onto submarines in Novorossiysk. However, Russia is still maintaining a submarine presence in the Black Sea and has reduced military use of the Kerch Strait Bridge for logistics.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian and Ukrainian forces continued fighting north and northeast of Kharkiv City. Geolocated footage showed Russian forces repelling a Ukrainian counterattack in Hlyboke. Russian milbloggers claimed Ukrainian mechanized counterattacks near Hlyboke, Tykhe, and the Aggregate Plant in Vovchansk. Russian forces also conducted offensive operations near Lyptsi, central Vovchansk, and Vovchanski Khutory, with a milblogger claiming a 300-meter advance in the Vovchansk direction.
A Ukrainian official confirmed the redeployment of Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade elements from the Donetsk area to the Lyptsi direction in Kharkiv Oblast, likely to replace combat-ineffective units. The 18th Motorized Rifle Division was also redeployed to Lyptsi. Since June 12-13, Russian forces have been reinforcing the Vovchansk direction with additional units, including elements of the 138th Motorized Rifle Brigade.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line but made no confirmed frontline changes. They attacked near Synkivka, Pishchane, Stepova Novoselivka, Berestove, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Druzhelyubivka, Torske, and Terny. A Russian milblogger claimed advances west of Ivanivka and Kotlyarivka, but this lacks confirmation.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces recently made advances west of Rozdolivka, south of Siversk, amid ongoing ground attacks in the area. A Russian milblogger claimed gains near Bilohorivka, northeast of Siversk, but this lacks visual confirmation. Fighting persisted near Verkhnokamyanske, Ivanodarivka, Vyimka, and Rozdolivka.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces recently made territorial gains southwest and west of the town of Chasiv Yar in eastern Ukraine amid continued offensive operations in that area. Geolocated footage shows Russians advanced near the villages of Klishchiivka and Kalynivka. Heavy fighting was reported in multiple areas around Chasiv Yar as Russian troops intensified assaults since June 10, particularly near Klishchiivka and Andriivka.
Avdiivka
Russian forces made incremental advances west of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine. Footage confirms they pushed south toward the village of Sokil and marginally advanced north near Umanske. Intense fighting continues in multiple areas northwest and west of Avdiivka, including near villages like Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, and Karlivka. Russian forces are likely trying to encircle Avdiivka from the north and west.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces claim to have made limited advances up to 150 meters in the town of Krasnohorivka west of Donetsk City, though these gains are unconfirmed. Heavy fighting continues in Krasnohorivka and nearby areas like Heorhiivka and Maksymilianivka to the southwest as Russian troops attempt to push westward from Donetsk.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian ground forces continued attacks near Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border region, though there were no confirmed territorial changes. Fighting was focused around the villages of Staromayorske and Urozhaine. The Russian Defense Minister credited military units like the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment with previously seizing Staromayorske, as claimed on June 10.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces continued ground assaults near the villages of Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka in western Zaporizhia Oblast, but made no confirmed territorial gains.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Limited fighting occurred near the village of Krynky in eastern Kherson Oblast, but there were no confirmed changes in territorial control.
Ukraine News
Russian forces struck recreation sites in Kharkiv City overnight. Russian missiles also hit civilian infrastructure in Poltava Oblast, with a Kh-59 cruise missile used in that strike. No further details were provided on casualties or damage from these attacks targeting non-military sites.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine’s Western partners continue to announce new military equipment production and repair efforts within and near Ukraine. Ukraine’s Ukroboronprom and Germany’s Rheinmetall have opened their first joint armored vehicle repair workshop in Ukraine. Rheinmetall and Ukrainian authorities also agreed to produce Lynx armored vehicles in Ukraine starting in 2024. Lockheed Martin is considering producing HIMARS ammunition in Poland with manufacturer Mesko after Poland’s rocket purchase. Additionally, Canadian firm Roshel plans to open a new armored vehicle production plant in Ukraine and potentially another in Poland. These initiatives aim to boost repair capabilities within Ukraine and establish new production lines for Western military equipment closer to the front lines.
Ukraine’s Allies
Ukraine’s Western allies continue training Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets. France committed to training 26 pilots from 2024 to 2026, with 10 currently undergoing accelerated training on Alpha Jet trainers. The US National Guard plans to train 12 pilots by the end of September 2024, while Denmark began training eight Ukrainian pilots in August 2023.
The U.S. has secured commitments from 5 countries to provide Ukraine with a total of 5 Patriot missile batteries, in addition to a newly announced German battery. Norway will contribute $257 million for air defense, including jointly funding 100 Patriot missiles with Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands. Latvia announced a second drone delivery to Ukraine and $21.4 million for the UK-led drone coalition which now has 14 member countries contributing $589 million total after France and Italy joined. These new Patriot, missile, funding and drone commitments from NATO allies aim to bolster Ukraine’s air defenses against Russian strikes.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
A Russian state media outlet, Izvestia, manipulated an interview with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi to blame Ukraine for strikes against the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Grossi discussed unattributed drone strikes on the ZNPP and the IAEA’s inability to identify perpetrators. However, Izvestia inserted an editorial note claiming Ukrainian forces conducted “unprecedented” strikes on April 7, despite Grossi not specifying the origin of the attacks. This manipulation is part of Russia’s efforts to use its control over the ZNPP to force the IAEA to legitimize Russia’s occupation of the plant and Ukrainian territory.
Russia News
President Putin dismissed four deputy defense ministers and replaced them with his niece Anna Tsivileva, former Prime Minister’s son Pavel Fradkov, and economist Leonid Gornin. Tsivileva will oversee social and housing support for the military. Fradkov, previously in the Presidential Administration and Foreign Affairs Ministry, will manage property, land resources, construction, and the national economy. Gornin, former Deputy Finance Minister, will handle the defense budget, financial transparency, and effective spending. Putin also increased the number of deputy defense minister positions from 11 to 12.
Tsivileva, Fradkov, and Gornin’s appointments align with Putin’s recent efforts to introduce his relatives and children of senior officials to the public and install economic advisors in the Ministry of Defense to improve the wartime economy. Tsivileva and Fradkov participated in the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum alongside Putin’s daughters and other officials’ children, likely setting the stage for them to assume high-profile government roles. Putin has been increasingly appointing economists to senior defense positions, suggesting a focus on appointing loyal officials and improving Russia’s defense industry. These moves may also be part of Putin’s plan to groom potential successors from his inner circle.
Russian milbloggers celebrated the dismissal of deputy defense ministers Pankov, Tsalikov, Shevtsova, and Popov, viewing it as a step towards resolving corruption and improving the defense industry. They focused on Tsalikov’s poor management of information policies and conflicts with milbloggers, and Shevtsova’s alleged involvement in corruption scandals. However, milbloggers largely overlooked the nepotism benefiting two new appointees. Some bloggers compared the appointments to those made by former Defense Minister Serdyukov, noting that current Defense Minister Belousov is appointing officials from finance and economic ministries, as well as Putin’s inner circle.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia is facing challenges producing enough artillery shells and certain artillery systems for its invasion of Ukraine. Analysts state Russia can currently produce around 150,000-170,000 shells per month but lacks sufficient explosives like nitrocellulose. Russia is shifting to more towed artillery due to tractor shortages for self-propelled systems. Producing newer self-propelled artillery models is very limited. Some reports indicate Russia may be refurbishing more shells than manufacturing new ones. The US claims China is supplying Russia with nitrocellulose to aid its defense industry. Overall, Russia appears to be struggling to sustain adequate artillery ammunition levels.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree placing the Federal Medical and Biological Agency, which manages state healthcare property and protects the health of employees at hazardous workplaces like Rosatom, under his direct control. The agency was previously overseen by the Russian government under the prime minister. This move centralizes Putin’s authority over the medical agency handling biological and chemical risks.
The Russian Tallamho Design Bureau says it has created a secure “Svyaz” field network for military personnel in Ukraine to transfer data like text and images. The network allegedly allows up to 255 connected users within 50 meters of nodes and 20km between servers. It is intended to prevent Russian troops from using personal phones or insecure messaging apps that require internet connectivity in combat zones with damaged infrastructure. Russia claims “Svyaz” provides secure military communications independent of cellular networks.
Russia says its military personnel have developed an unmanned “Perun” drone that can transport supplies, evacuate casualties, and conduct attacks behind enemy lines. The drone can reportedly carry up to 200kg, including anti-tank missiles to fire from the air or ground. Russia claims it plans to add machine guns and unguided missile launchers to the “Perun” in future tests. The drone utilizes Russian software and components. If true, this versatile drone could enhance Russian capabilities for transport, resupply and precision strikes.
Russia’s Allies
The Kremlin confirmed that President Vladimir Putin will make an official state visit to North Korea on June 18-19, his first since 2000. Putin will also visit Hanoi, Vietnam on June 19-20 to discuss prospects for developing strategic partnerships in various fields, including trade, economy, science, technology, and humanitarian relations.
Belarus is reportedly advancing plans to cooperate with the Russian aviation industry. Belarus is working with Russia to train specialists in drone and aircraft construction, according to Belarusian Education Minister Andrei Ivanets. During a recent visit to a Russian aviation plant, the General Director of the Russian United Aircraft Corporation stated that Belarusian enterprises may receive annual orders worth $33-56 million from Russia’s aircraft industry for parts and assembly of passenger and cargo aircraft. This points to increasing integration of the Belarusian defense sector into Russia’s aviation and drone production capabilities to support Moscow’s military operations.
The deputy head of the Russia-Belarus parliamentary body stated they should create new programs to ensure “technological sovereignty” – Moscow’s goal of eliminating dependence on Western technology through domestic production. He also called for “safe digital development” initiatives. Additionally, he proposed expanding the Union State’s relations with parliamentary bodies in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America. This points to efforts to insulate the Russia-Belarus alliance from Western sanctions through import substitution and cultivating ties with other regions to evade economic restrictions. Pursuing technological independence from the West is a key objective amid the strains caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org