Russia and North Korea Sign Strategic Partnership Agreement – Day 847 (June 19, 2024)

Summary of the day: Russian President Putin and North Korean dictator Kim signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement in Pyongyang, likely aiming to use military-technical cooperation as a threat against the West to discourage support for Ukraine. Russian government officials announced their intention to suspend Russia’s participation in the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly. Ukrainian forces recaptured positions near Starytsya, while Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, Donetsk City, and in east bank Kherson Oblast. Finnish outlet Yle reported that Russia has deployed roughly 80 percent of its equipment and personnel from near the Russian-Finnish border to support its invasion of Ukraine.

These updates will be shorter until the end of July and will only use the Institute for the Study of War as a source while we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.

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Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War

Russian President Putin and North Korean leader Kim signed a strategic partnership agreement, framing it as evidence of their mutual support in a common struggle against the West and their shared goal of challenging the current world order. They emphasized the historically friendly relations between their countries and invoked the Soviet Union’s past support for North Korea. North Korean state media highlighted their solidarity with Russia’s “sacred cause,” while the Kremlin published images showcasing the lavish reception and the two leaders’ determination to support each other. The agreement helps legitimize Kim’s regime, and Putin discussed increasing trade between Russia and North Korea, suggesting it also benefits their shared partner, China.

Putin is working to build a coalition of states with historically close ties to the Soviet Union as an alternative to the West and the current world order. In an article in Vietnam’s state newspaper, Putin invoked the Soviet Union’s support for Vietnam during the Vietnam War and praised the country for its independent foreign policy and support for a new Eurasian security system. This echoes his recent praise for North Korea and aligns with his June 14 speech claiming the collapse of the Euro-Atlantic security system. By leveraging historical memory and previous assistance, Putin aims to form a coalition that he can portray as an alternative to NATO and bolster the false narrative that the rest of the world supports Russia while only Western countries back Ukraine.

Russian government officials announced plans to suspend Russia’s participation in the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Parliamentary Assembly (OSCE PA) and stop paying membership fees. The Federation Council and State Duma are preparing draft resolutions to formalize the suspension, citing anti-Russian activities and the recent denial of visas to Russian delegates by Romanian authorities. Russian officials accused the OSCE PA of being controlled by the US. Russia has used OSCE PA meetings to spread disinformation or has abstained from attending since invading Ukraine in 2022.

Air traffic control (ATC) communications from the northeastern Atlantic Ocean appear to show the first confirmed instance of GPS jamming on commercial trans-Atlantic routes. An X account posted ATC communications stating that a flight between Madrid and Toronto could not ascend to a higher altitude due to GPS jamming affecting other aircraft. The ATC dispatcher noted this was the first known case of GPS jamming along Atlantic routes. The Resilient Navigation and Timing Foundation warned that regular GPS jamming over the Atlantic could impact thousands of flights daily. The cause of the disturbances remains unidentified, but high levels of GPS jamming have been observed over Poland and the Baltic region since late 2023, possibly attributed to Russian electronic warfare activity.

According to Finnish outlet Yle, citing satellite imagery and intelligence sources, Russia has deployed around 80% of its equipment and personnel from bases near the Finnish border to support its invasion of Ukraine. This includes removing significant numbers of armored vehicles, aircraft and constructing facilities to accommodate personnel transfers. Finnish experts assessed Russia is likely training recruits at some of these bases to reinforce units in Ukraine. The extent of the redeployments suggests Russia does not currently view Finland as a major military threat. However, replenishing these units will depend on the war’s outcome and Western sanctions.

Russian sources misrepresented Armenia’s efforts to procure Western military systems like French CAESAR howitzers as provocative and escalatory. The Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson claimed France is provoking tensions in the South Caucasus by selling howitzers to Armenia. A Russian milblogger questioned why Armenia remains part of the Russian-led security bloc CSTO if purchasing NATO weapons. This follows Armenia signing a contract to buy the French howitzers during the Armenian defense minister’s visit to France on June 17. Russia appears concerned by Armenia’s efforts to diversify its military cooperation away from Russian dominance.

Belarus continues managing relationships with various multinational groups. On June 19, the Belarusian Defense Ministry hosted delegations from CIS countries like Russia, Kazakhstan and others for a joint meeting of CIS engineering units in Minsk Oblast. Additionally, Belarusian Defense Minister Khrenin welcomed representatives of organizations including CIS, CSTO, SCO, BRICS, Arab League and ASEAN to the “National Security Belarus-2024” international exhibition in Belarus. This shows Belarus maintaining ties across regional blocs despite its alignment with Russia over Ukraine.

Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine

The Russian military command continues to permit war crimes by its forces in Ukraine. Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin reported that Russian battalion and company commanders ordered subordinates to behead Ukrainian soldiers instead of taking them prisoner, as required by international law. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) identified four Russian servicemen who executed Ukrainian POWs in Zaporizhia Oblast. Various Russian units under different operational commands have documented histories of abuses against Ukrainian POWs and civilians, suggesting that tactical-level commanders enable such atrocities and that the high command fails to maintain discipline among troops.

Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia

Ukrainian forces reportedly recaptured Tykhe and made advances in Starytsya amid ongoing Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast. A Ukrainian spokesperson stated that Ukrainian forces have “blocked” dozens of Russian soldiers in a fortified area in Vovchansk, possibly the Aggregate Plant. Russian forces heavily bombarded Vovchansk, potentially preparing for a limited offensive. The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian ground attacks near Vovchansk and Lyptsi. Russian milbloggers claimed Ukrainian forces have reduced counterattack intensity near Hlyboke but are bringing in reserves for further counterattacks.

Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without confirmed advances. A Ukrainian spokesperson expressed concerns about Russian forces pulling reserves to attack towards Borova, with elements of two Russian divisions operating in the area. Russian forces are rapidly replenishing frontline units with minimally trained mobilized personnel. Russian milbloggers shared footage of a missile strike on a bridge southwest of Borova, possibly to isolate Ukrainian forces in preparation for offensives. Fighting persisted in multiple locations near Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna.

Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia

Siversk

Russian forces intensified attacks around the town of Rozdolivka, south of Siversk. Russian milbloggers claimed Russian troops seized Ukrainian positions in a pincer movement, forcing Ukrainian retreat to Rozdolivka. This allegedly complicated Ukrainian supply lines. Geolocated footage showed Russian advances on Rozdolivka’s outskirts. Russian airborne units reportedly advanced north of Vesele. Ukraine confirmed continued Russian assaults around Siversk, with Russian infantry attacking in small squad-sized groups.

Chasiv Yar

Russian forces recently made marginal advances northeast of Chasiv Yar. Geolocated footage showed Russian troops advancing into the town of Kalynivka north of Chasiv Yar. Russia launched assaults in eastern Chasiv Yar and surrounding towns like Bohdanivka and Ivanivske.

Russian sources claimed their forces advanced in the Toretsk direction, reaching areas like eastern Pivnichne, the borders of Zalizne, and outskirts of Niu York. They reported attacks around several towns east, southeast, south and southwest of Toretsk. Russian milbloggers stated intense artillery, drone and air strikes preceded offensives west of Horlivka. Ukraine noted a surge in Russian assaults toward Toretsk on the evening of June 18. However, these Russian claims could not be independently verified.

Avdiivka

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka area, attacking several towns northwest, west, and southwest of Avdiivka. Russian milbloggers claimed advances to Yasnobrodivka’s outskirts, near Sokil and Umanske, and gaining a foothold near the Karlivske Reservoir. They also stated that Russian forces broke through Ukrainian defenses near Yevhenivka with artillery support. However, these Russian claims of advances could not be independently verified.

Southwest of Donetsk City

Russian forces made limited advances west of Donetsk City in recent days. Geolocated footage showed they marginally advanced into fields south of Heorhiivka on June 18. Russia continued assaults west of Donetsk near Krasnohorivka and southwest near towns like Paraskoviivka and in the Vuhledar direction. Russian sources reiterated claims of using motorcycle units in their Vuhledar offensive.

Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia

Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area

Russian forces launched ground attacks but made no confirmed advances in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area. They struck towns south and southwest of Velyka Novosilka like Urozhaine and Rivnopil. A Russian milblogger claimed Ukraine tried to counterattack near Staromayorske. Russian aviation units and the 5th Tank Brigade operated in this area. Meanwhile, Russia is reportedly constructing a new military base using the Ilyich Steel Plant in occupied Mariupol to support logistics in this border region.

Zaporizhia Line

Russian forces continued ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast but did not make any confirmed advances. Fighting was reported around the town of Robotyne and nearby areas like Verbove, Mala Tokmachka, Novopokrovka, and Novodanylivka. Russian milbloggers complained of poor communication and effective Ukrainian electronic warfare use in this region.

Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None

Geolocated footage showed Russian forces made a marginal advance north of the town of Korsunka in eastern Kherson Oblast, though likely not within the last 24 hours. Positional fighting continued in eastern Kherson Oblast areas like around Krynky.

Ukraine News

Russian forces conducted a mid-sized drone strike against Ukraine overnight, launching 21 Shahed drones from Russia and Crimea. Ukrainian air defenses destroyed 19 of the drones over multiple oblasts. Falling debris from the destroyed drones hit some industrial and residential areas in Lviv and Kirovohrad oblasts.

Russian forces launched ballistic missiles at coastal areas in Odesa Oblast damaging recreational infrastructure there.

Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base

Russian authorities in Tatarstan region began recruiting on June 15 for a new “Batyr” volunteer battalion to deploy to occupied Ukraine. The battalion will primarily consist of Tatarstan natives but is open to other Russian regions. Recruits are offered bonuses of up to $12,000 for signing contracts. As of June 19, the unit was 15% staffed, with the first recruits beginning training in Samara this week. The “Batyr” battalion may serve in a military police support role in occupied areas. This indicates Russia’s continued reliance on volunteer battalions to reinforce its invasion force.

Russia is reviving the Soviet “Zarnitsa” war games as part of long-term force generation efforts related to the Ukraine war and envisioned future conflicts. The updated “Zarnitsa 2.0” aims to indoctrinate 800,000 children ages 7-17 across Russia and occupied Ukraine with militaristic “traditional values.” Children learn skills like operating drones, virtual reality combat, emergency medicine, and “combating cyber threats.” Organizers claim the games prepare children to “lead the fight” and become a “worthy replacement” for current Russian forces, reflecting Kremlin’s efforts to mobilize the next generation for extended military campaigns.

The Russian government appears to be acknowledging growing issues with Russian servicemen, particularly pardoned convicts who were recruited to fight in Ukraine, committing violent crimes like murder and rape against civilians, including children, upon returning to Russia. A Russian lawmaker urged taking steps to protect society, such as requiring pardoned convict soldiers to regularly report to law enforcement after demobilization. She warned that without action, more such crimes will occur, reflecting the risks of Russia’s reliance on convict recruits and lack of accountability measures put in place. Reports of these types of crimes by returning Russian personnel have repeatedly surfaced.

Ukraine’s Army of Drones initiative confirmed that Russia has developed a new cargo drone called the “Perun” that can carry up to 440 pounds of weight. The “Perun” can deliver much more supplies like food in one trip compared to other drones, evacuate wounded personnel, and support operations behind enemy lines. A Russian milblogger claimed the drone was developed by former Wagner Group members.

Russia’s Allies

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement in Pyongyang, which broadly covers goals for deepening long-term relations in various fields. The agreement provides for mutual assistance in case of aggression against either country. Putin criticized Western discussions about allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range weapons and F-16 jets, signaling that Russia may develop military-technical cooperation with North Korea if such restrictions are lifted. Russia is likely to continue deepening ties with North Korea regardless of Western policies on military aid to Ukraine.

Russian Narrative and Propaganda

The Russian government is trying to deflect responsibility for its well-documented violations of international law regarding the treatment of Ukrainian children by accusing Ukrainian forces and security structures of committing crimes against children. Russian State Duma Deputy Chairperson Anna Kuznetsova presented a report making unfounded accusations against Ukrainian officials, including wounding and killing children, kidnapping children from Donbas, and engaging in medical experimentation, sexual abuse, and human trafficking. The report misrepresents Ukraine’s legitimate evacuation of citizens from frontline areas as illegal deportation, while ignoring Russia’s own illegal occupation and annexation of Ukrainian territories. The report recommends recognizing Ukrainian forces and security agencies as terrorist organizations.

The Russian State Duma’s report accusing Ukraine of crimes against children is likely an attempt to deflect attention from Russia’s own well-documented violations of international law, including the mass forced deportation of Ukrainian children from occupied territories to Russia. The State Duma unanimously supported the report, and the Federation Council tasked the government with translating and disseminating it internationally, even to unfriendly countries. The timing of the commission’s creation in June 2023, shortly after the ICC issued arrest warrants against Putin and a Kremlin-appointed official for illegally deporting Ukrainian children, suggests the report aims to confuse the international community about Russia’s actions.

The Russian Permanent Representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, accused Ukraine of persecuting the Moscow-linked Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC MP) by destroying churches and targeting priests. However, these claims falsely portray Ukraine’s efforts to counter Russian malign influence as religious persecution. The UOC MP is subordinate to the Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church and has been an instrument of Russian hybrid warfare in Ukraine, rather than an independent religious organization. The Russian accusations appear aimed at misrepresenting the situation.

A prominent pro-Kremlin Russian milblogger channel continued advertising that its company is teaching propaganda courses in Belgrade, Serbia. The channel had previously claimed it recently opened a “Rybar Media School” providing similar courses in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. This reflects Russian efforts to spread disinformation and malign influence operations across former Soviet states and allied countries like Serbia.

Source Material

Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org