Summary of the day: Putin’s recent visits to North Korea and Vietnam aimed to undermine international support for Ukraine. South Korea may reconsider its ban on lethal aid to Ukraine in response. Russia used a new FAB-3000 M-54 bomb in Kharkiv Oblast, prompting increased US Patriot air defense support for Ukraine. Ukrainian forces advanced near Vovchansk and struck Russian oil facilities, while Russian forces progressed near Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City. Russian military tactics are showing signs of reduced effectiveness on the frontlines.
These updates will be shorter until the end of July and will only use the Institute for the Study of War as a source while we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russian President Putin hinted at potential changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, implying a lower threshold for nuclear weapon use. This threat comes as NATO discusses increased nuclear readiness due to Russian and Chinese threats. Putin linked Russia’s potential defeat in Ukraine to a threat to Russian statehood, seemingly to deter Western support for Ukraine’s decisive victory. This rhetoric aims to frame the Ukraine invasion as an existential war for Russia, despite it being an illegal act of aggression.
Putin’s recent nuclear threats are part of an ongoing strategy to discourage Ukraine’s allies from fully supporting Ukraine’s defense. Despite Putin’s rhetoric, a Russian defeat in Ukraine doesn’t actually threaten Russia’s sovereignty. Russia didn’t use nuclear weapons after previous major defeats in Ukraine. Putin’s statements about nuclear doctrine have been inconsistent, suggesting these threats are more about manipulation than genuine intent. Experts believe Russia is unlikely to escalate to nuclear warfare and that with continued Western support, Ukraine can prevail against Russian aggression.
South Korea may lift its ban on sending lethal military aid to Ukraine in response to a new Russia-North Korea partnership agreement. South Korea’s National Security Director expressed grave concern over the deal, which violates UN resolutions. South Korea plans to sanction entities involved in Russia-North Korea weapons transfers. The agreement includes provisions for mutual military assistance and defense cooperation between Russia and North Korea, mirroring a 1961 Soviet-North Korean treaty.
Russian President Putin attempted to downplay the new Russia-North Korea agreement during a press conference in Vietnam. He claimed it merely reproduces a 1961 treaty and assured South Korea it has “nothing to worry about.” However, Putin warned South Korea against supplying weapons to Ukraine, calling it a “very big mistake.” He also denied seeking or receiving third-party assistance in Ukraine. This rhetoric may be an attempt to ease South Korean concerns and discourage them from reconsidering their policy on aiding Ukraine.
During his visit to Vietnam, Russian President Putin met with key Vietnamese leaders, including President Tô Lâm, Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính, and Communist Party General Secretary Nguyễn Phú Trọng. They discussed bilateral relations and historical Soviet and Russian support for Vietnam. This visit appears to be part of Putin’s strategy to build a coalition of states with historical ties to the Soviet Union, potentially as an alternative to the Western-led world order.
Belarusian defense officials met with their Saudi Arabian counterparts in Belarus to discuss military cooperation between the two countries. Major General Valery Revenko, who heads Belarus’ Department of International Military Cooperation and serves as Deputy Defense Minister for International Military Cooperation, led the Belarusian side in these talks.
Peace Talks
Russian President Putin visited North Korea and Vietnam on June 18-19, attempting to undermine international support for Ukraine. This follows recent efforts by Ukraine’s allies to solidify their support, including a Global Peace Summit, security agreements with the US and Japan, and reaffirmed G7 backing. Putin aims to discourage Ukraine’s partners from supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Meanwhile, the US has pledged continued support to help Ukraine achieve victory over Russia’s invasion.
During a press conference, Putin reiterated Russia’s stance on peace negotiations with Ukraine, demanding Ukraine’s capitulation as a prerequisite. He insisted Ukraine withdraw from regions Russia illegally annexed and abandon NATO aspirations. Putin claimed these terms are “realistic,” despite violating international law. He also asserted Russia’s openness to negotiations while signaling unwillingness to participate in good faith talks. Putin characterized Russian offensive operations in Kharkiv Oblast as purely defensive, denying intentions to approach Kharkiv City.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
US policy continues to restrict Ukraine’s use of US-provided weapons against Russian targets. Ukraine is permitted to strike Russian forces attacking across the border into Ukraine but is still prohibited from targeting most military assets within Russia’s territory. This policy protects Russia’s operational and deep rear areas from Ukrainian strikes using US-supplied weapons. While this is a step towards reducing Russian sanctuary, it falls short of allowing Ukraine to disrupt Russian operations at scale. Some Ukrainian and European officials are urging the US to further loosen these restrictions.
A leaked Russian military training manual reveals a shift in tactics for airborne troops. The manual, based on experiences in Ukraine, calls for creating dedicated assault groups at the company level. These groups are expected to seize Ukrainian strongpoints and fortified positions. Notably, Russian command anticipates these units will only last two days in combat before exhausting their capabilities. This approach highlights Russia’s increasing reliance on infantry-heavy frontal assaults, blurring distinctions between combat services and potentially reducing overall combat effectiveness.
Russian military tactics in Ukraine have shifted towards relying heavily on infantry-led frontal assaults across all service branches, including elite units like the VDV (airborne troops). This approach, now codified in a new VDV training manual, involves creating dedicated assault groups expected to last only two days in combat. This tactic has blurred distinctions between different Russian combat services, effectively reducing most frontline troops to understrength, low-quality units. While maintaining pressure on Ukrainian defenders, this strategy has been criticized for not achieving significant operational results. However, it aligns with Putin’s stated theory of gradual advances to win a war of attrition against Ukraine.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces have made recent advances northeast of Vovchansk, near Kharkiv City. They retook several positions and advanced along Soborna Street in northern Vovchansk. Ukrainian forces also appear to maintain positions in central Vovchansk, despite previous Russian claims. Russian sources reported their own advances near Tykhe, east of Vovchansk, but Ukrainian officials stated they repelled these attacks. Fighting continues in the area, though Russian attacks near Vovchansk have reportedly decreased in intensity since the morning. Russian sources also claim to have repelled Ukrainian counterattacks north of Kharkiv City.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on June 19-20 but made no confirmed advances. Ukrainian reports indicate ongoing fighting in various locations near Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna. Russian sources claimed some advances west of Ploshchanka and near Torske, but these remain unverified.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces conducted a small-scale mechanized attack near Siversk, involving one tank and two infantry fighting vehicles. Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled this attack southeast of Vyimka. Russian sources claim advances southwest of Rozdolivka and in Bilohorivka, but these remain unconfirmed. Ukrainian officials report repelling Russian attacks near Verkhnokamyanske and Rozdolivka. Overall, Russian forces appear to be making limited, localized efforts in the Siversk area with no significant confirmed advances.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces have advanced to the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal in central Kalynivka, north of Chasiv Yar. This position could allow them to attack Chasiv Yar from the north without crossing the canal. Russian forces have resumed infantry-heavy assaults in the area after recent losses in mechanized attacks. Fighting continues in various locations around Chasiv Yar, including the Kanal and Novyi microraions, and near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
Toretsk
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Toretsk, southwest of Chasiv Yar and west of Horlivka. Russian sources claim advances on the eastern outskirts of Pivnichne and near Niu-York, but these are not confirmed. Ukrainian officials acknowledge ongoing Russian offensive actions in these areas, as well as near Shumy. No confirmed Russian advances have been reported in this direction.
Avdiivka
Russian forces have made small advances near Avdiivka. They gained ground northeast of Sokil and on the northern bank of the Karlivske Reservoir. Russian sources claim additional advances near Karlivka, Netaylove, and Yasnobrodivka, but these are unconfirmed. Russian tactics have shifted to using small light infantry groups with ATVs or motorcycles instead of armored vehicles. Fighting continues in various locations north, northwest, and southwest of Avdiivka.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces have made a small advance southwest of Donetsk City, near Solodke. Russian attacks continue west and southwest of Donetsk City, including near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Maksymilianivka, Pobieda, Kostyantynivka, Paraskoviivka, and Vodyane. Russian forces are reportedly operating near Kostyantynivka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces continued ground attacks in the border area between Donetsk and Zaporizhia Oblasts. The attacks were focused near the settlements of Urozhaine and Vremivka, both located south of Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhia Line
Fighting continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast near Mala Tokmachka, northwest of Robotyne. However, there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Fighting continued on the east bank of the Kherson Oblast, including near Krynky, on June 19-20. A Russian source reported that their forces are facing challenges due to effective Ukrainian electronic warfare in the area. Russian forces are reportedly operating near Oleshky.
Ukraine News
Russian forces used the new FAB-3000 M-54 guided glide bomb for the first time in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine. This 3,000-kilogram bomb caused significant destruction despite missing its target by 10 meters. The use of this weapon represents a new, highly destructive capability for Russian forces. If Russia can deploy these bombs at scale and uncontested, it could significantly increase damage to Ukrainian positions and infrastructure. This development follows Russia’s increased use of guided and unguided glide bombs in recent attacks.
On the night of June 19-20, Russian forces launched a large-scale missile and drone attack against Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The strike involved various types of missiles and 27 Shahed drones. Ukrainian forces reportedly intercepted most of the incoming weapons, but some strikes hit critical infrastructure in several oblasts, including Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia, Donetsk, and Kyiv. The attacks damaged power plants and high-voltage grids, leading to increased energy consumption restrictions. This is the seventh major Russian strike on DTEK thermal power plants in three months.
Russia’s Ministry of Internal Affairs has placed former Ukrainian Deputy Commander-in-Chief Lt. Gen. Mykhailo Zabrodskyi on its wanted list for unspecified crimes. This action is part of Russia’s ongoing effort to enforce its laws outside its borders and suggests that Russia doesn’t recognize Ukraine’s sovereignty. The practice of charging Ukrainian military commanders with crimes in absentia reflects Russia’s persistent view that Ukraine should not exist as an independent state.
Ukraine’s Allies
The US has announced a policy change to prioritize delivering Patriot air defense interceptors to Ukraine. National Security Spokesperson John Kirby stated that new Patriot missiles will go directly to Ukraine for the next 16 months, with other countries’ orders delayed. This decision aims to bolster Ukraine’s air defense against increasing Russian guided glide bomb attacks. Romania has also pledged to donate one Patriot system to Ukraine. These moves come as Ukrainian leaders emphasize the urgent need for more air defense capabilities to protect against Russian strikes on infrastructure and frontline positions.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes against at least two oil facilities in Russia overnight. The attacks targeted a fuel warehouse in Tambov Oblast and an oil depot in the Adygea Republic, causing fires at both locations. Russian officials confirmed these strikes. There were also reports of possible attacks on other oil facilities in Krasnodar Krai, though some of these remain unverified. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have destroyed several drones over the affected regions but did not mention any activity over Tambov Oblast.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov visited military facilities in Vladivostok, emphasizing timely completion of construction projects and threatening contractors with criminal liability for delays. He stressed the importance of rehabilitating servicemembers and providing housing for their families. Belousov also mentioned the possible return of soldiers from Ukraine, though the specifics and timeline remain unclear due to current mobilization laws. This visit, particularly to the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade which has suffered heavy losses, may be an attempt to appease soldiers and families while projecting an image of a strict, engaged defense minister tackling corruption.
Russian military bloggers are criticizing their command’s failure to motivate troops and explain the war’s purpose. They report that soldiers lack clear incentives to fight and face inconsistent discipline. Many troops are unclear about Russia’s objectives in Ukraine, with varying interpretations ranging from “denazification” to fighting NATO. Some soldiers are reportedly fighting without understanding the broader reasons. The bloggers argue that the military needs to develop better frontline commanders and change a culture that values obedience over effectiveness.
The Russian nuclear-powered missile cruiser “Admiral Nakhimov” will begin sea trials in November 2024 after modernization. The ship is being updated with modern weapons and equipment to meet fourth-generation standards. Additionally, Russia is planning to construct fifth-generation submarines, including both strategic and multi-purpose nuclear submarines.
The International Naval Show in St. Petersburg showcased three new Russian unmanned naval drones for the first time: the compact “Orkan,” the fast and long-range “Vizier,” and the heavy-payload “BEK-1000.” The “Vizier” can reportedly reach speeds of 45 knots with a range of 270 miles, while the “BEK-1000” can carry up to one ton of payload.
Russia’s Allies
Russia and Belarus jointly published a report accusing the West of using a “rules-based order” to commit human rights violations. They claim this order opposes international law and is used to pressure sovereign states. However, Russia’s recent decision to suspend participation in the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly suggests this narrative is likely an attempt to discredit international law and deflect from Russia’s own human rights violations, rather than a genuine concern for human rights.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Russian Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova claimed that the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant against her is hindering the reunification of children with their families. She accused Western and Ukrainian “fake information” of interfering with this process. Lvova-Belova was implicated by the ICC in March 2023 for her role in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. This statement appears to be an attempt by the Russian government to deflect responsibility for its documented violations of international law regarding the treatment of Ukrainian children.
The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) revived claims of a power struggle between Ukrainian President Zelensky and former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi. The SVR alleged that the US sees Zaluzhnyi as a suitable replacement for Zelensky and that the West is preparing to “write off” Zelensky. These claims are likely part of an ongoing Russian disinformation campaign, known as “Maidan-3,” aimed at portraying the Ukrainian government as illegitimate. This narrative ignores that Ukraine legally suspended elections due to martial law during the ongoing war.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org