Summary of the day: Russian President Putin continues to invoke nuclear threats as part of his information campaign to discourage Western support for Ukraine and undermine international efforts to defeat Russia’s war of conquest. Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov emphasized Russia’s initiative to create an alternative “Eurasian security architecture,” likely to establish a coalition of friendly states as an alternative to the West and NATO. Ukrainian forces conducted strikes on oil refineries and military targets in multiple Russian regions and occupied Crimea. Moscow State University opened enrollment for a master’s program on “strategic communications, information, and hybrid wars” under the guidance of Russian ultranationalist Zakhar Prilepin. Russian forces made advances southeast of Kupyansk, southwest of Svatove, and west and southwest of Donetsk City. The Russian Ministry of Defense is addressing bureaucratic issues to formalize irregular formations, while an investigation reveals Russia’s importation of judges to serve in occupied Ukraine’s courts.
These updates will be shorter until the end of July and will only use the Institute for the Study of War as a source while we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.
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Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
President Putin continues to invoke nuclear threats to discourage Western support for Ukraine and undermine international efforts to defeat Russia’s invasion. In a speech to graduating officers, Putin emphasized developing Russia’s nuclear triad as a “guarantee of strategic deterrence” while also increasing conventional capabilities. He suggested lowering the threshold for nuclear use in Russia’s doctrine and claimed that a Russian defeat in Ukraine would threaten Russia’s statehood. These statements appear to be part of an ongoing information campaign to manipulate foreign decision-makers, although the actual risk of nuclear escalation remains low due to existing deterrence measures.
Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov continue to promote Russia’s initiative for an alternative “Eurasian security architecture,” aiming to create a coalition of friendly states as an alternative to the West and NATO. Putin expressed readiness to discuss Eurasian security with various international organizations and European countries “when they are ready.” Lavrov emphasized replacing the Euro-Atlantic security system with this new architecture. The initiative includes countries not typically considered part of Eurasia, such as Vietnam, leveraging their historical ties with the Soviet Union. This effort appears to be part of Russia’s ongoing strategy to portray Western countries as Ukraine’s only supporters and position itself as a leader of an alternative global order.
The Russian Foreign Ministry criticized South Korean and Japanese objections to the Russia-North Korea strategic partnership agreement. South Korea is considering sending artillery shells and air defense systems to Ukraine in response, while Japan introduced new sanctions against Russia. The Russian Foreign Ministry defended its cooperation with North Korea, claiming it strengthens stability in the Korean peninsula. In response to Japanese protests, Russia tied the agreement to Putin’s “Eurasian security architecture” initiative, threatening “tough and painful countermeasures” against Japan’s sanctions.
The Belarusian Ministry of Defense has announced a surprise readiness check of its military forces in Brest and Gomel oblasts. This check will assess various branches of the military, including regular forces, special operations, missile and artillery units, and air force and air defense. The last such readiness check occurred on May 7. These checks are part of Belarus’s routine military preparedness activities.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast on June 20-21 without confirmed advances. They attacked near Lyptsi, Vovchansk, and Tykhe on June 20, but switched to heavy guided glide bomb strikes from Belgorod Oblast on June 21. Ukrainian forces reportedly continued counterattacks near Hlyboke. Russian sources claimed intense fighting in Vovchansk, with conflicting reports about control of the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant and Tykhe. However, ISW assesses that Ukrainian forces likely still control Tykhe based on available information.
Ukrainian military sources have not confirmed Russia’s use of an FAB-3000 glide bomb in Lyptsi on June 20, despite widespread Russian reports. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Ilya Yevlash stated that the investigation is ongoing. An aviation expert noted the blast radius was smaller than expected for an FAB-3000. Russian milbloggers questioned the effectiveness of FAB-3000s, suggesting that multiple smaller bombs might be more accurate and damaging. Claims of a second FAB-3000 strike on June 21 remain unverified by Ukrainian sources.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made advances east of Pishchane (southeast of Kupyansk) and west of Novovodyane (southwest of Svatove) along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Fighting continued in multiple locations along this line, including near Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Berestove, Stelmakhivka, Novosadove, Hrekivka, Nevske, and in the Serebryanske forest area. Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian forces are attempting to transfer reserves to the Borova direction but are not forming significant new assault groups that could pose a serious threat to Ukrainian defenses in the area.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Siversk direction, targeting areas near Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Vyimka, and Rozdolivka. While Russian milbloggers claimed gains on the outskirts of Rozdolivka, there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, targeting the Kanal Microraion, Kalynivka, and Klishchiivka. However, there were no confirmed frontline changes. A Ukrainian brigade commander noted that Russian forces have a significant advantage in artillery ammunition quantity in this area.
Toretsk
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Toretsk direction, targeting areas near Toretsk, Pivnichne, Shumy, and Niu York. While Russian milbloggers claimed advances near Niu York, Toretsk, and Pivnichne, there were no confirmed frontline changes. A Ukrainian military spokesperson stated that Russian forces are attacking in this direction to potentially develop an offensive on Chasiv Yar from the south.
Avdiivka
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Avdiivka, targeting multiple areas northwest, west, and southwest of the city. These included attacks near Vozdvyzhenka, Arkhanhelske, Novooleksandrivka, Sokil, Novopokrovske, Novoselivka Persha, Yasnobrodivka, and Karlivka. Russian milbloggers claimed advances near the Karlivske Reservoir and west of Netaylove, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in the Avdiivka area.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces made advances west of Novomykhailivka and within Krasnohorivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City. Intense fighting was detected in central Krasnohorivka. Russian forces continued offensive operations in multiple areas west and southwest of Donetsk City, including near Maksymilianivka, Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, Pobieda, Paraskoviivka, and Vodyane.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Positional engagements continued near Staromayorske and Urozhaine in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area. Russian forces conducted guided glide bomb strikes on Novoukrainka and have increased such strikes on Staromayorske, possibly preparing for future ground attacks.
Zaporizhia Line
Positional engagements continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast, particularly near Robotyne, Verbove, and Mala Tokmachka. However, there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Positional engagements continued in east bank Kherson Oblast near Krynky and Kozachi Laheri, as well as on the islands in the Dnipro River Delta
Ukraine News
Russian forces conducted missile strikes against Ukraine. They launched four cruise missiles against Kirovohrad and Kherson oblasts, which Ukrainian forces intercepted. Russian forces also struck a food warehouse in Kryvyi Rih and recreational infrastructure on the coast of Odesa Oblast with missiles.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russian officials in Chuvashia have admitted to bringing Ukrainian children from occupied Zaporizhia Oblast to a summer camp over 1,200 km away in Russia. The Chuvashian Minister of Education claimed 43 children are “resting” at the camp, while denying accusations of re-education. However, Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets asserts that Russia is using such camps to erase the children’s Ukrainian identities and promote pro-Russian sentiments. This incident highlights ongoing concerns about Russia’s deportation and potential re-education of Ukrainian children from occupied territories.
Russian opposition outlet Verstka has investigated the importation of Russian judges to occupied Ukrainian territories. Most judges in occupied Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts are now Russian, while Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts have more local judges due to longer-standing collaborator networks. Many imported judges come from smaller Russian regions, and some have questionable backgrounds. This practice strengthens Russian control over the legal system in occupied areas and supports efforts to alter Ukraine’s demographics by resettling Russian citizens there. The investigation aligns with previous findings that many occupation administration officials are also imported from Russia.
Russian authorities in occupied Mariupol are forcing residents to obtain Russian passports and re-register their properties with the occupation administration. Those who don’t comply risk having their properties seized and nationalized. This policy is part of Russia’s efforts to coerce Ukrainian citizens into accepting Russian citizenship and documentation. It also allows Russia to take control of Ukrainian properties, which they may use to encourage Russian citizens to resettle in occupied areas. This strategy aligns with Russia’s broader goals of Russification and demographic change in occupied Ukrainian territories.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against oil refineries and military targets in Bryansk and Astrakhan oblasts, Krasnodar Krai, and occupied Crimea on June 20-21. The strikes targeted multiple oil refineries, radar and electronic warfare stations, a Shahed drone storage facility, military training facilities, and drone communication posts. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have destroyed numerous Ukrainian drones over the Black Sea, Crimea, and Krasnodar Krai. Ukrainian forces also confirmed successful strikes on fuel and oil depots in Tambov Oblast and Adygea Republic the previous night.
Russian milbloggers reported that Ukrainian forces used both naval and aerial drones in a coordinated strike on Krasnodar Krai, overwhelming Russian defenses. In the confusion, a Russian Pantsir air defense system reportedly shot down a Russian Ka-29 helicopter in a friendly fire incident. The milbloggers claimed this was due to a malfunction in the system’s Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) capability. They criticized the Russian military for not improving these systems to prevent such incidents, noting that Ukrainian forces have previously used similar tactics to overload Russian air defenses.
Moscow State University has reopened enrollment for a master’s program on “strategic communications, information, and hybrid wars,” guided by Russian ultranationalist Zakhar Prilepin and other Duma deputies. The two-year program, leading to a degree in “Conflictology,” focuses on national information sovereignty and countering hybrid, cognitive, and intellectual wars. Initially started in 2022 but suspended due to financial issues, the program has been revived under prominent ultranationalist supervision. This initiative likely aims to promote Russian objectives for the war in Ukraine and strengthen the ideological foundation supporting Russia’s invasion.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian Ministry of Defense is addressing bureaucratic issues to formalize irregular formations, including the Wagner Group. Deputy Defense Minister Anna Tsivileva announced that combat veteran certificates were presented to Khabarovsk Krai veterans who fought with Wagner in Ukraine. The MoD is collaborating with the Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation to help these veterans access state benefits. The goal is to ensure Wagner veterans receive the same social benefits as other Ukraine war veterans. Tsivileva stated this is fair, as all soldiers fight together in Ukraine.
Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anna Tsivileva has presented combat veteran certificates to former Wagner Group fighters, a move seen as significant given past tensions between the Ministry of Defense and Wagner. The timing is notable, coming near the anniversary of Wagner’s 2023 rebellion. This gesture is viewed as part of the MoD’s effort to reintegrate Wagner personnel and may signal a broader push to formalize irregular formations fighting in Ukraine. It addresses longstanding complaints about lack of benefits for non-regular forces and could indicate a shift in the MoD’s approach to these groups.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov met with Digital Development Minister Maksut Shadayev to improve the benefits process for veterans. They agreed to automate and digitize the application process for military benefits and social services. The goal is to implement digital issuance and approval of documents by the third quarter of 2024. Belousov also created a working group to address any issues in digitizing combat veteran certificates and benefit applications. This move aims to simplify the process for military personnel and their families who currently struggle with paperwork.
Russia is enhancing its drone training capabilities as part of its long-term military strategy. The Ussuriysk Suvorov Military School is developing a drone course for students, while drone manufacturer Zala Aero is partnering with universities to offer master’s programs in robotic systems. These programs will teach drone control system design, optical navigation, and autopilot prototyping. These efforts aim to improve Russia’s military technology expertise and prepare a new generation of specialists in unmanned systems.
Russian defense company Rostec has announced plans to test its new unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) called “Impulse-M”. This tracked vehicle is just over two meters long and can carry up to one ton of cargo. Rostec designed the UGV to be reliable and easy to maintain in combat conditions. The company aims to enhance Russia’s military capabilities with this new robotic system, potentially for use in frontline operations.
A Ukrainian commander has reported that Russian forces are equipping drones with lights. These illuminated drones are being used to highlight potential targets for Krasnopol guided artillery systems. This tactic potentially enhances the accuracy of Russian artillery strikes, especially in low-light conditions.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Russian officials are continuing efforts to discredit Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev claimed Zelensky has committed crimes and that his term expired in May 2024. State Duma Chairperson Vyacheslav Volodin suggested the West will replace Zelensky soon. These statements are part of Russia’s “Maidan-3” information operation, which aims to portray Zelensky’s government as illegitimate after Ukraine lawfully suspended its planned presidential elections due to martial law. This campaign is designed to undermine Zelensky’s authority and sow doubt about Ukraine’s leadership.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org