Summary of the day: Russian forces are intensifying their offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast while reducing attacks in northern Kharkiv Oblast, potentially to distract Ukrainian forces and focus efforts elsewhere. The US policy prohibiting Ukrainian forces from striking military targets in Russian territory with HIMARS is providing a sanctuary for Russian forces, which they are exploiting to support their operations. This policy may also limit the effectiveness of Ukrainian F-16s against Russian air defenses. The Netherlands and another country have announced plans to supply Ukraine with a Patriot air defense system. Recent leadership changes in the Russian Federal Security Service’s Fifth Service have been reported, while satellite imagery confirmed Ukrainian strikes on a Russian air defense training center in Krasnodar Krai. Russian forces have made recent advances near Svatove, Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka, and continue to recruit individuals accused of criminal offenses into their military as part of ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts.
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Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian forces are intensifying attacks in Donetsk Oblast while reducing operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast. This shift aligns with assessments that Russian actions in Kharkiv were meant to distract Ukrainian forces, allowing Russia to focus elsewhere. Recent Russian advances have been reported near Svatove, Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka. These movements may indicate preparation for a potential Russian summer offensive in eastern Ukraine.
US policy restricts Ukraine from using HIMARS to strike Russian territory unless Russian forces are actively attacking or preparing to attack Ukraine from those locations. This policy limits Ukraine’s ability to target Russian military assets, particularly airbases, which are out of range of current HIMARS systems but within range of ATACMS missiles. The restrictions require Ukraine to carefully assess targets before authorizing strikes.
Russian forces are taking advantage of this restriction by positioning command posts and other assets in Russian territory, just beyond the range of Ukraine’s current HIMARS systems. This allows Russia to safely support its operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast and other areas of Ukraine.
This limitation could reduce the effectiveness of Ukraine’s future F-16 fleet. If Russia deploys S-400 systems within its borders, it could potentially cover up to 64% of Ukraine’s airspace, making it difficult for Ukrainian aircraft to operate safely near the front lines or against Russian air threats.
The US recently relaxed some restrictions on Ukraine striking Russian territory. This change has allowed Ukraine to hit Russian equipment concentrations and missile launch sites near the border. As a result, S-300 missile strikes against Kharkiv have reportedly stopped, and the situation in Kharkiv City has improved. However, Russian glide bomb attacks continue, highlighting the need for further policy changes to allow Ukraine to target Russian airbases and improve its air defenses.
Ukrainian forces reportedly struck Russian targets in occupied southern Ukraine. Attacks were claimed on a Russian base and air defense assets at Mariupol airport, a training ground near Staryi Krym, and a base near Nikolske. Damage to Russian equipment was reported, but the full extent of the impact is still being assessed. These claims have not been independently verified.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces reportedly launched counterattacks north and northeast of Kharkiv City, while Russian forces continued their offensive in the area. Russian sources claim to have captured the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant and pushed Ukrainian forces south. Russian attacks in this region reportedly involve small infantry groups supported by drones, artillery, and air power, with limited use of armored vehicles.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces have made recent advances southwest of Svatove, particularly near Novovodyane. Fighting continues along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, with clashes reported in multiple locations including Synkivka, Pishchane, Andriivka, and the Serebryanske forest area. Ukrainian forces are engaged in defensive operations in these regions.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Siversk, with attacks reported east, southeast, and south of the city. Russian sources claim advances in Rozdolivka and near Vyimka, but these claims remain unconfirmed. No significant changes to the frontline in this area have been verified.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces have made a small advance in eastern Chasiv Yar, specifically in the Kanal Microraion area. Russian sources claim further gains, including the capture of a concrete plant and advances near Kalynivka, but these remain unconfirmed. Fighting continues north, east, and southeast of Chasiv Yar, with Russian attacks reported near several settlements. Russian volunteer units are reportedly active in the area.
Toretsk
Russian forces reportedly captured Shumy, southeast of Toretsk, on June 21. Russian sources claim further advances towards Druzhba and Pivnichne, potentially setting conditions for a future push towards Toretsk. This could allow Russian forces to support operations near Chasiv Yar or west of Avdiivka. However, these claims of Russian advances have not been independently confirmed.
Avdiivka
Russian forces have made a small advance northwest of Avdiivka, capturing a windbreak near Novooleksandrivka. There are unconfirmed reports of further Russian advances near Vozdvyzhenka, Karlivka, and Yasnobrodivka. Russian attacks continue in several locations northwest of Avdiivka, including Kalynove and Ocheretyne. The situation remains fluid, with many claims yet to be independently verified.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued attacks west and southwest of Donetsk City. Clashes were reported near several settlements, including Heorhiivka, Krasnohorivka, and Vodyane. Some Russian sources claim advances in Krasnohorivka, but this remains unconfirmed.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces attacked near Staromayorske and Urozhaine, south of Velyka Novosilka. No confirmed changes to the frontline were reported. Russian naval infantry units are reportedly active in the area near Prechystivka.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces increased airstrikes and ground attacks near Kamyanske, west of Orikhiv in Zaporizhia Oblast. This includes 36 glide bomb strikes and renewed ground assaults, possibly signaling preparations for a new offensive in this area. Russian attacks also continued near Robotyne and surrounding settlements. Some reports suggest increased Ukrainian counterattacks in the region. Russian motorized rifle units are reportedly active in the Zaporizhia direction.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Fighting continues in east bank Kherson Oblast, including near Krynky and on Dnipro River islands. Russian sources describe these areas as contested “gray” zones. Russian naval infantry units are reportedly active in both the Kherson direction and near Vovchansk, indicating their deployment across multiple fronts.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine using various missiles and drones. Ukrainian forces intercepted many of these, including all 13 Shahed drones. The strikes damaged energy infrastructure in Zaporizhia and Lviv oblasts and hit civilian targets in Ivano-Frankivsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. This was reportedly the eighth major strike in three months, with Ukrainian officials noting improved capability in downing Russian missiles.
Russian forces launched a severe attack on Kharkiv City using four modified glide bombs. Three bombs hit a production facility, while one struck a residential building. The attack resulted in three deaths and at least 42 injuries, causing significant damage to both industrial and civilian areas.
A Russian source claims that Russian forces used an Iranian-made “Arash” loitering munition in a strike on Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast. This claim is unverified. Ukrainian intelligence had previously reported in November 2022 that Russia purchased these drones from Iran, but there has been no official confirmation of their use until now.
Ukraine’s Allies
The Netherlands and an unnamed country will provide Ukraine with a Patriot air defense system. This is part of a broader effort, announced by President Biden, involving five countries committing to supply Ukraine with Patriots and other air defense systems. Romania has also confirmed its participation in this initiative.
Western countries have reportedly supplied Ukraine with about 800 million euros worth of Serbian-made ammunition since February 2022. Serbia’s President Vučić confirmed this estimate but emphasized that Serbia doesn’t directly export ammunition to Ukraine or Russia. Instead, Serbia sells to countries like the US, Spain, and Czechia, which can then distribute the ammunition as they choose.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russian sources claim Ukraine struck electrical infrastructure in occupied western Zaporizhia Oblast. They allege these strikes are an attempt to threaten the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, though this claim is unverified.
Russia News
Satellite imagery confirms that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian air defense training center in Krasnodar Krai on June 20-21. The attack damaged buildings and caused fires at a facility west of Yeysk. Reports suggest that another strike on a training center near Rostov-on-Don injured nine personnel.
Some Russian military bloggers claimed that Ukraine used ATACMS missiles to strike Rostov Oblast, but this is unconfirmed. Current US policy still prohibits Ukraine from using ATACMS to hit targets in Russia. However, some analysts argue that the US should allow Ukraine to strike all military targets in Russia’s rear areas using US-provided weapons.
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) has reportedly undergone leadership changes in its Fifth Service, which focuses on intelligence within Russia and former Soviet states. Alexei Komkov has allegedly replaced Sergei Beseda as head of this service. Beseda, who provided intelligence to Putin before the Ukraine invasion, has reportedly become an advisor to the FSB head. Komkov is said to have ties to the FSB First Deputy Director.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian law enforcement and security agencies are collaborating with the Ministry of Defense to recruit individuals accused of crimes into military service. This process offers defendants aged 18-65 the opportunity to suspend or terminate their criminal cases in exchange for military service. The charges are suspended upon signing a contract and can be fully dropped if the individual receives an award, is injured or killed in Ukraine, or upon the completion of the “Special Military Operation.” This effort appears to be part of ongoing crypto-mobilization and may involve coercing people into service through potentially dubious accusations.
Kalashnikov Concern, a Russian state-owned defense company, is reportedly forcing employees in Izhevsk to work extended hours without overtime pay. Workers are now required to work six days a week in 12-hour shifts, up from 8-hour shifts. This appears to be part of efforts to increase production in Russia’s defense industry.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Russian officials used the 83rd anniversary of Operation Barbarossa to promote several key narratives. They sought to delegitimize the Ukrainian government, deny Ukraine’s sovereignty, and accuse the West of endorsing Nazism. Officials criticized the removal of Soviet monuments in Europe as “Russophobia” and framed the war in Ukraine as an effort to restore “historical justice.” They claimed the West is waging a long-term war against Russian identity and portrayed Western support for Ukraine as an attempt to defeat Russia strategically. These narratives aim to justify Russia’s war in Ukraine as an existential struggle against the West, invoking Soviet World War II mythology. This rhetoric is part of the Kremlin’s broader ideological effort to legitimize its illegal invasion of Ukraine in the eyes of the Russian public and international observers.
A Russian military blogger shared comments from a Ukrainian parliament member criticizing Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi. This aligns with ongoing Russian efforts to undermine confidence in Ukraine’s military and political leadership.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org