Summary of the day: Russian officials are visibly divided on handling the rise in religious extremism amidst escalating ethnic and religious tensions, especially following the recent terrorist attacks in Dagestan. Meanwhile, in a significant humanitarian development, ten Ukrainian civilians, detained by Russian and Belarusian authorities before and during the ongoing conflict, have been released and returned to Ukraine. On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces have recaptured positions near Kreminna, though Russian troops have made advances in areas near Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Donetsk City. Additionally, concerns are growing over the adequacy of training for new Russian military recruits being rapidly deployed to Ukraine.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
On June 28, the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation reported that Belarusian and Russian propagandists are falsely portraying Ukraine as a threat to Belarus. Russian milbloggers asserted on June 29 that Russia must defend Belarus from Ukrainian aggression and suggested preemptively striking Kyiv with glide bombs. Such an attack would require Russian aircraft to operate near or within Ukrainian airspace. Belarusian military officials, however, reported no recent provocations along the Ukraine-Belarus border since a claimed drone strike on June 26. They also stated that Belarusian forces are prepared to address any potential threats. Additionally, the Belarusian State Border Committee claimed on June 28 that they had shot down a drone from the pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps near the border in Gomel Oblast.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Kharkiv Front – Initiative None
Ongoing conflicts in the areas north and northeast of Kharkiv City, specifically around Vovchansk and Hlyboke, saw no significant changes to the frontline. Russian forces are reported to have employed TOS-1A thermobaric artillery north of Kharkiv and destroyed a crossing over the Vovcha River in Vovchansk. Additionally, there are reports of reluctance to fight among soldiers of the Russian 153rd Tank Regiment in the Vovchansk sector. Meanwhile, the Russian 83rd Airborne Brigade has been active within the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant. Ukrainian officials have also noted recent attempts to withdraw the 83rd Brigade following severe losses in the area.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Amidst ongoing clashes along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, Russian forces made slight advances southeast of Kupyansk and near other strategic locations. Geolocated footage showed Russian progression along a railway south of Ivanivka and territorial gains near Synkivka and Petropavlivka. Ukrainian forces also advanced east of Terny and in forest areas near Kreminna. Meanwhile, further claims suggest Russian advances near Nevske and administrative borders near Myasozharivka. Amidst these movements, Ukrainian reports indicate Russian use of drones for deploying harmful substances on Ukrainian positions in the Lyman area. Russian assaults continued in various sectors including near Stepova Novoselivka, Stelmakhivka, Kruhlyakivka, Makiivka, Hrekivka, Torske, and the Serebryanske forest.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued their ground attacks in the Siversk direction without any confirmed changes to the frontline. Russia claims that the 51st Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division captured Rozdolivka, south of Siversk, and is advancing towards Pereizne. However, there is no visual evidence to support these claims. Additionally, Russian attacks persisted south of Siversk near Spirne and Vyimka.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces made slight advances near Chasiv Yar as part of ongoing offensive operations. Geolocated footage shows a marginal progression within the Kanal Microraion of easternmost Chasiv Yar. Additionally, Russian milbloggers reported advancements in the forest area south of Kalynivka, north of Chasiv Yar. Continued fighting was reported in the vicinity of Chasiv Yar, Kalynivka, and Klishchiivka.
Toretsk
Russian forces made slight advancements in the Toretsk direction amid ongoing ground attacks. Geolocated footage from June 28 shows Russian progress up to the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal east of Druzhba. Although claims of capturing Shumy southeast of Toretsk began on June 22, the Russian Ministry of Defense officially declared the seizure. Further, Russian milbloggers reported advances east of Pivnichne and Zalizne, with significant gains on the outskirts of Pivdenne. Russian military activities continued near and around Toretsk, affecting areas east and southeast of the town.
Avdiivka
Russian forces continued their offensive operations west of Avdiivka, with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian milbloggers reported the seizure of Sokil and advancement to Yevhenivka’s western outskirts, though Ukrainian forces are said to still hold positions near Sokil. Further north of Umanske, Russian advances were also claimed. Ukrainian defense tactics include the use of high-speed motorcycles in the Pokrovsk direction, aimed at circumventing Russian forces, albeit unsuccessfully. Clashes persisted in the areas northwest of Avdiivka, including Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Prohres, Novoselivka Persha, and Sokil, as well as west near Yasnobrodivka and Karlivka.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces made advancements west and southwest of Donetsk City as part of their ongoing offensive operations. Geolocated footage from June 28 showed progress within southwestern Krasnohorivka, while additional footage from June 29 depicted Ukrainian forces repelling a Russian mechanized assault southeast of Kostyantynivka. Ukrainian defense efforts successfully repelled a significant Russian mechanized assault in the Kurakhove direction, destroying one tank and damaging four others, including T-90 models. Russian claims also noted advancements in eastern Maksymilianivka. The conflict continued in the areas around Krasnohorivka, Pobieda, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Ongoing positional engagements occurred near Staromayorske and Urozhaine in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces continued their offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast, specifically near Robotyne and its neighboring areas, including Verbove, Mala Tokmachka, and Novodanylivka. A Russian milblogger reported that Russian forces have established strongholds near Robotyne. Additionally, Russian sources indicated challenges in detecting and countering Ukrainian drones, which have shifted frequencies to evade Russian defenses.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Positional engagements persisted on the east bank of Kherson Oblast, particularly near Krynky. A Russian milblogger reported ongoing small arms battles in the island zone near the Antonivsky railway and road bridges. Despite official claims of Russian control over the entire island zone, frontline soldiers have contradicted these statements.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a series of drone attacks against Ukraine, deploying 10 Shahed-136/131 drones from Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Krasnodar Krai. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk confirmed that all drones were intercepted and shot down over several regions including Mykolaiv, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, and Vinnytsia. Additionally, the Russian Ministry of Defense released footage claiming a strike on a Ukrainian S-300 air defense system near Velykodolynske, Odesa Oblast using an Iskander missile.
Ukrainian energy companies report severe impacts from previous Russian strikes, with 90% of DTEK’s energy generation capacity knocked offline. DTEK CEO Ildar Saleev indicated that repairing the damaged thermal power plants will take years. Additionally, YASNO CEO Serhii Kovalenko warned that Ukraine could face a 30% electricity shortfall in the winter of 2024-2025, potentially leading to emergency power outages lasting weeks.
Ten Ukrainian civilians, detained by Russian and Belarusian authorities before and during the ongoing conflict, have returned to Ukraine. This return was part of the 53rd prisoner-of-war exchange, initially announced on June 25. Those released include the First Deputy Head of the Crimean Tatar Majlis, Nariman Dzhelyal, arrested in 2021, two Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church priests detained in 2022, five Ukrainian citizens held in Belarus, and two detained in occupied Donetsk Oblast since 2017. President Volodymyr Zelensky credited the Vatican for mediating their return. Details on any reciprocal release of civilians or POWs by Ukraine were not disclosed.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces using FPV drones to strike a Russian diesel train near Tokmak.
Russian officials and milbloggers reported that Ukrainian forces launched a missile strike on occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, resulting in missile fragments landing on private homes.
Russia News
Two high-ranking officials are publicly clashing over the approach to addressing religious extremism, heightening ethnic and religious tensions. Alexander Bastrykin, head of the Russian Investigative Committee, attributed the recent terrorist attacks in Dagestan to Islamic terrorists, urging legislative action against this threat. This stance sparked criticism from Ramzan Kadyrov, Chechen Republic Head, who cautioned against generalizing all Muslims as terrorists, warning that such rhetoric could destabilize Russia’s socio-political harmony. This dispute between Bastrykin, known for his ultranationalist views, and Kadyrov, a representative of Russia’s Muslim minority, could prompt President Putin to intervene to mitigate rising internal tensions and potential conflicts.
Following the June 23 terrorist attacks in Dagestan, Russian ultranationalists are increasingly skeptical of the government’s ability to prevent future attacks and manage ethnic and religious tensions. They have circulated stories, including one where a doctor in Dagestan was harassed for requesting a patient to remove her niqab, using these narratives to claim that extremists are fueling discord. Ultranationalists argue that Dagestani officials are aware of extremist leaders yet allow their influence to grow, which has sparked calls, supported by Alexander Bastrykin, to ban niqabs. This focus on the niqab is notable, given its rare use in Russia, and seems to be used by ultranationalists to highlight perceived threats from Muslim communities and criticize the government’s counterterrorism efforts. Such rhetoric risks further alienating minority groups and could aid extremist recruitment.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Recent reports suggest that new Russian military recruits are receiving inadequate training before being deployed to the frontlines in Ukraine. According to a Russian milblogger, these recruits average about 14 days of training, which actually includes only four to five days of substantive training from the time they sign their military contracts to their deployment. A former military instructor corroborated these concerns, highlighting general issues with the training regimen. The milblogger also pointed out that Ukrainian soldiers typically undergo far more extensive training compared to their Russian counterparts. Despite these shortcomings, the Russian military continues to deploy these minimally trained units to support their operations, which rely heavily on mass infantry and mechanized assaults rather than specialized tactics. Efforts to provide additional training post-deployment are noted, with some improvements targeted at specific units.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
On June 28, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) rejected the US State Department’s 2023 International Religious Freedom report on Russia. The MFA’s denial is part of efforts to portray Russia as a harmonious multireligious and multiethnic nation. The US report highlights the repression of religious minorities in Russia and occupied Ukraine, aligning with previous findings on the issue.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org