Summary of the day: President Putin’s strategy of indefinite creeping advances in Ukraine is likely to prolong the war and reinforce his commitment to destroying Ukrainian statehood. The West is urged to provide Ukraine with necessary support for counteroffensive operations to invalidate this strategy. In troop movements, Ukrainian forces regained lost positions near Kreminna, while Russian forces advanced near Lyptsi, Vovchansk, Kupyansk, and Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces reportedly struck the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant in Lipetsk Oblast. The Russian military command appears to be deploying smaller elements of airborne units across different sectors of the front, potentially still viewing them as relatively elite forces. Ongoing GPS interference over Europe and the Middle East highlights the role of long-term jamming in current and future conflicts. Reports suggest some Russian commanders are sending wounded soldiers back to the front against medical advice, raising concerns about troop management and care.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Military and civilian flights continue to experience GPS interference over Europe and the Middle East, highlighting the growing importance of GPS jamming in conflicts. UK Royal Air Force flights have faced significant GPS interference, with 28% of flights over Eastern Europe, 16% over northwestern Europe, and 45% over the Middle East affected in early 2024. The jamming is largely attributed to Russian actors, though some in the Middle East may originate from Israel. High levels of GPS jamming have been observed over Poland and the Baltic region since late 2023. Experts warn that aircraft GPS receivers may continue to operate in “degraded mode” after experiencing jamming, potentially affecting future flights. This trend suggests GPS-guided systems may become increasingly unreliable in war zones as long-range jamming becomes more common.
Peace Talks
President Putin’s strategy of gradual advances in Ukraine is likely to prolong the war and reinforce his goal of destroying Ukrainian statehood. Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed concern that Western fears about Russian stability are allowing Putin to seize more territory, strengthening Russia’s bargaining power. Zelensky warned that Putin might use this advantage to pursue a ceasefire that would allow Russia to prepare for future aggression. To counter this, the West is urged to provide Ukraine with support for counteroffensive operations, aiming to invalidate Putin’s strategy and secure a peace acceptable to Ukraine and its partners.
Putin’s strategy in Ukraine relies on gradual advances, preventing significant Ukrainian counteroffensives, and winning a war of attrition. The Russian military is prioritizing consistent small-scale operations over large offensives, viewing this as a more guaranteed approach to making gains. Putin demands Ukraine cede all occupied territories in Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts, plus areas Ukraine still controls. A prolonged war favors Putin’s strategy, as he believes Russia can hold any captured ground and achieve more territorial gains over time. The Kremlin has not set limits on its objectives in Ukraine, suggesting that areas beyond the mentioned oblasts could also be targeted.
Putin’s ultimate goal remains the destruction of Ukrainian statehood and identity, with territorial conquest as a means to this end. He likely hopes that gradual Russian advances will convince the West that Ukrainian victory is impossible, leading to concessions on Ukraine’s sovereignty. Putin currently seeks full Ukrainian capitulation and views any ceasefire as an opportunity to prepare for future offensives. A negotiated ceasefire would allow Russia to reconstitute its forces and industrial base for future aggression. Putin is not yet interested in a ceasefire as he believes he can achieve his aims by force but might consider one if this assessment changes. However, a ceasefire on Putin’s terms would essentially mean Ukrainian and Western capitulation, threatening Ukraine’s independence and NATO’s security interests.
Ukraine’s partners can help counter Putin’s strategy by supporting significant Ukrainian counteroffensive operations. This would challenge Putin’s assumption that Russia can achieve its goals in Ukraine by force. Putin’s current strategy relies on outlasting Western support for Ukraine and preventing Ukraine from building up resources for counteroffensives. To change Putin’s calculus, Ukraine needs to demonstrate its ability to liberate significant territory. This requires Western security assistance providing Ukraine with necessary equipment and weapons at the right scale, timing, and regularity. Such support is crucial for reducing Putin’s commitment to destroying Ukrainian statehood and identity, as significant Russian defeats are likely needed to alter his assessment of the situation.
Ukraine is pursuing diplomatic efforts to support a war end-state that would prevent Russia from setting conditions for future aggression. Switzerland hosted a Ukrainian-initiated Global Peace Summit on June 15, aiming to create international consensus on negotiations. The goal is to present a joint peace plan to Russia at a future summit when Putin is willing to negotiate on terms other than Ukraine’s total surrender. Ukraine seeks to establish a negotiation basis that will prevent Russia from gaining international support for concessions that could enable future attacks on Ukraine.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
The Russian military command is reportedly dividing some airborne (VDV) units into smaller components and deploying them across different front sectors. For example, elements of the 106th Airborne Division’s 137th Regiment are reportedly operating in both the Kherson and Siversk directions. Similarly, parts of the 98th VDV Division’s 217th Regiment have been observed in Kursk Oblast and near Chasiv Yar. The 83rd VDV Brigade has been active in Vovchansk and Chasiv Yar, while elements of the 76th VDV Division have been reported in Kherson Oblast and Kursk Oblast. This deployment pattern suggests the Russian military may still view VDV units as relatively elite compared to other formations.
The Russian military is deploying small elements of airborne (VDV) units across different front sectors, which is unusual for standard military practice. This decision likely comes from high-level commanders like General Gerasimov or Colonel General Teplinsky. Although VDV units have been degraded and often used as regular infantry, Russian command may still view them as higher quality. By spreading VDV elements across the front, they might hope to improve the effectiveness of nearby lower-quality units. However, this approach means VDV units can’t conduct their own coherent operations in specific sectors. The reasons for this strategy remain unclear, and its effectiveness is yet to be determined.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative None
Vovchansk
Russian forces advanced in central Vovchansk along Soborna Street. Ukrainian journalist Lieutenant Yevhen Nazarenko reported that Ukrainian forces have encircled elements of the Russian 83rd Airborne Brigade within the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant. While unconfirmed, ISW’s assessment suggests Ukrainian forces would need to advance only 200 meters to completely encircle the plant. The situation remains dynamic, and it’s unclear if Ukrainian forces can consistently prevent Russian movement to and from the plant. The encirclement, if confirmed, would have limited tactical significance. Fighting continues in and around Vovchansk, with Russian Spetsnaz forces reportedly operating in northern Vovchansk.
Lyptsi
Russian forces advanced in southwestern Hlyboke, north of Lyptsi and Kharkiv City. Ukrainian journalist Yevhen Nazarenko reported that Ukrainian forces have entered Hlyboke, with ongoing fighting in the settlement. President Zelensky claimed in a recent interview that Russian forces are suffering a six-to-one casualty ratio against Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv direction.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced east of Stelmakhivka, southeast of Kupyansk, while Ukrainian forces advanced north of Hryhorivka, south of Kreminna. Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacked in forested areas south and west of Kreminna near Terny. Fighting continued along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, including near Stelmakhivka, Pishchane, Makiivka, Nevske, and Torske.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces reportedly made gains in the Siversk area, capturing Spirne and advancing in several nearby locations including Rozdolivka and Vyimka. Attacks also occurred near Verkhnokamyanske and Bilohorivka.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar without changing the frontline. They reportedly advanced in the Kanal Microraion and around areas like Hryhorivka, Novyi Microraion, and Ivanivske. Ukrainian forces are said to have repositioned west of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal. Russian tactics shifted to smaller, squad-sized infantry assaults.
Toretsk
Russian forces reportedly made advances in the Toretsk area, using an underground tunnel for a surprise attack on a Ukrainian stronghold in Pivnichne, resulting in Ukrainian forces surrendering and retreating. Despite claims from the Russian Ministry of Defense, there is no visual confirmation of these events. Ukrainian and Russian military units are also engaged in conflicts around Mayorske, Zalizne, and Pivdenne, with Russian forces advancing significantly in these areas. Additionally, Russian forces conducted a glide bomb strike near Niu York, south of Toretsk.
Avdiivka
Russian forces have made marginal advances southwest of Avdiivka, notably along the southern shore of the Karlivske Reservoir. Although the Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Novooleksandrivka, recent footage shows Ukrainian forces actively contesting the area. Additional Russian advancements are reported near Sokil, Yasnobrodivka, and west of Avdiivka, with claims of seizing Yasnobrodivka. Assaults continued in nearby areas like Vozdvyzhenka, Novoselivka Persha, Prohres, and Umanske.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued their offensive operations south and southwest of Donetsk City without any confirmed changes to the frontline. Clashes persisted near Krasnohorivka, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Positional battles persisted near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border, specifically around Urozhaine, Staromayorske, and Makarivka. Russian aerospace forces were reported active near Prechystivka.
Zaporizhia Line
In western Zaporizhia Oblast, positional fighting persisted with no changes to the frontline. Russian forces launched ground assaults near Robotyne and surrounding areas including Novodanylivka, Verbove, Mala Tokmachka, and Charivne.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Fighting persisted on the east bank of Kherson Oblast, particularly near Krynky. The head of the Kherson Oblast occupation administration, Vladimir Saldo, claimed that Russian forces have pushed Ukrainian forces from the area and are expanding their control over islands in the Dnipro River Delta.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched multiple missile strikes against Ukraine. They targeted Vilyansk in Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly hit a train unloading site with military equipment near Ukrainka, also in Zaporizhia Oblast. Additionally, near Odesa City, a likely Iskander-M ballistic missile was used in the attacks.
President Zelensky reported that Russian forces have launched over 800 glide bombs against Ukraine in the past week.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces reportedly struck the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant (NLMK) in Lipetsk Oblast. Seven Ukrainian drones reportedly hit the plant, damaging an oxygen separation unit and causing a fire in a garage. Lipetsk’s governor stated that Russian air defenses shot down nine drones over the industrial zone, with debris hitting a residential building. This is the fifth reported strike on NLMK since February 2024. NLMK, which claims to be Russia’s largest steel producer, downplayed the impact of the strike, calling it “meaningless.”
Dagestan Republic Head Sergei Melikov publicly supported Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov in a debate with Russian Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin about religious extremism in Russia. Bastrykin linked recent terrorist attacks in Dagestan to Islamic extremism, while Kadyrov warned against characterizing all Muslims as terrorists. Melikov expressed “absolute solidarity” with Kadyrov, calling such generalizations dangerous. This debate highlights growing tensions between officials trying to maintain Russia’s image of multi-ethnic unity and those supporting ultranationalist views. The disagreement underscores increasing ethnic and religious tensions in Russia, potentially requiring intervention from President Putin to prevent further escalation among senior officials.
Russian authorities reportedly detained Gadzhimurad Atayev, accused of harassing a Russian doctor who refused to see a patient wearing a niqab. Atayev, previously arrested in Germany in 2015 for suspected IS recruitment, is known for promoting pro-jihadi content online. He reportedly works as an assistant to a Buynaksk City official. His detention appears to be in response to recent ultranationalist outrage rather than his alleged IS affiliations, suggesting Russian authorities may have been aware of his extremist tendencies but only acted after public pressure.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
On June 29, a Russian milblogger reported that approximately 50 wounded soldiers from the 26th Tank Regiment were sent back to the front against medical advice. This reflects a systemic issue where wounded soldiers are reportedly kept in service and sent back to active units due to a policy against dismissals and hospital overcrowding. In response to these reports, Russian State Duma Deputy Yaroslav Nilov announced plans to address the issue with the Ministry of Defense and the Chief Military Prosecutor’s Office.
The “Irkutsk Blog,” a Russian independent journalist project, reported on June 26 that satellite imagery indicates a four-to-six-fold increase in the number of graves at military cemeteries in Irkutsk Oblast over the past year.
Russia’s Allies
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Belarusian Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhenkov in Minsk. They discussed bilateral cooperation and the integration of the Union State.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org