Summary of the day: President Putin explicitly rejected meaningful ceasefire negotiations, demanding Ukraine’s “irreversible demilitarization” as a precondition, effectively calling for Ukraine’s surrender. The Russian FSB reportedly detained Colonel Artyom Gorodilov, commander of the 83rd Guards Airborne Assault Brigade, on fraud charges following heavy losses in the Kharkiv direction. Russian forces made advances near Kreminna, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City. The US Department of Defense announced $2.35 billion in aid for Ukraine, including air defense interceptors. Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed that about 190,000 Russians signed military service contracts in the first half of 2024.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
President Putin endorsed the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s (SCO) expansion in Central Asia, supporting its Anti-Terrorist Structure and new Anti-Drug Center in Dushanbe. The SCO General Secretary emphasized Central Asia’s importance to the organization’s stability. Putin also supported reviving the SCO-Afghanistan contact group, noting potential Taliban cooperation in combating terrorism. These moves suggest Putin intends to use the SCO to increase Russian influence in Central Asia.
Belarus officially became a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a group led by China. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Belarus’s inclusion is part of a coordinated strategy for Russia and Belarus to engage in international affairs as a “united front.”
Peace Talks
President Vladimir Putin explicitly rejected meaningful ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine, demanding Ukraine’s “irreversible demilitarization” as a precondition. This effectively calls for Ukraine’s surrender before any ceasefire talks. Putin dismissed all potential mediators and Ukrainian governing institutions as negotiation partners, including the Verkhovna Rada, which he previously considered legitimate. By rejecting all realistic negotiation processes, Putin has effectively closed the door on any meaningful ceasefire talks, contradicting his previous stance of feigned interest in negotiations. He argued that Russia cannot allow Ukraine to use a ceasefire to rebuild its forces, ignoring that Russia would likely do the same. Putin’s stance suggests he’s confident in Russia’s ability to achieve victory through gradual advances, outlasting Western support for Ukraine, and winning a war of attrition. This rejection of meaningful ceasefire talks indicates Putin’s belief in Russia’s current strategy and his unwillingness to engage in genuine negotiations.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed a Russian long-range radar system, located 70 kilometers from the frontline in southern Ukraine.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative None
Russian forces conducted a cross-border raid into Sotnytskyi Kozachok, a small village on the Kharkiv-Belgorod Oblast border, about 45 kilometers northwest of Kharkiv City. Ukrainian forces are working to identify and repel the Russian group. This action is part of Russia’s strategy to create tension points along the international border and divert Ukrainian troops from other critical areas. While Russian sources claim significant advances in the area, there’s no visual confirmation of an enduring Russian presence in the village. This follows a similar raid reported on June 26.
Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces repelling a Russian reinforced platoon-sized mechanized assault north of Kharkiv City. This is the first visual confirmation of such a large Russian mechanized assault in this area since mid-May 2024. The footage shows five Russian armored combat vehicles attacking towards Hlyboke from west of Krasne. Ukrainian forces destroyed three of the five vehicles, and Russian forces made no confirmed advances during this assault.
Geolocated footage confirms that Russian forces have seized the entire Vovchansk Aggregate Plant in Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City. This visual confirmation supports ISW’s earlier assessment that this change likely occurred in mid-June. Previous footage and reports suggested Russian forces had held positions in the plant for several weeks. Both Russian and Ukrainian sources report ongoing heavy fighting within Vovchansk.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made small advances near Kreminna amid ongoing attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna. They advanced slightly northeast of Makiivka and reportedly entered its eastern outskirts. Fighting continued in multiple locations along this line. Russian forces have reportedly transferred elements of the 25th Combined Arms Army to the Ploshchanka-Makiivka area after failing to advance near Terny and Yampolivka. Various Russian units from different divisions and brigades are operating in the Lyman direction.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Siversk direction on July 4, with no confirmed frontline changes. They attacked near Verkhnokamyanske (east of Siversk) and Vyimka (southeast of Siversk). Russian forces are reportedly operating near Rozdolivka and Pereizne, both south of Siversk.
Chasiv Yar
Ukrainian officials confirmed that Russian forces have captured the Kanal Microraion in easternmost Chasiv Yar, with Ukrainian forces withdrawing to prepared positions. Various Russian units, including elements of the 98th VDV Division and 150th Motorized Rifle Division, were involved in this operation. Russian forces now hold positions west of Kanal Microraion near a destroyed bridge across the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal. Russian forces are expected to intensify efforts to advance further into Chasiv Yar, with reserve units potentially being committed. Offensive operations continue in several areas around Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk
Russian forces reportedly continued advancing near Toretsk. They claimed to have broken through Ukrainian defenses, reaching the southwestern outskirts of Niu York and nearly capturing Yurivka. Russian offensive operations continued near Toretsk, Dyliivka, Pivnichne, and Niu York, with increased activity noted by Ukrainian officials.
Avdiivka
Russian forces have reportedly made significant advances around Avdiivka, notably northwest and southwest of the area. Despite Russian military bloggers asserting control over several key positions and reporting advancements up to two kilometers, these claims remain unconfirmed by independent sources. Russian troops also continued offensive operations in multiple directions around Avdiivka.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced in areas southwest and west of Donetsk City. Geolocated footage shows movement westward near Pobieda. Despite claims of further advancements in northwestern Krasnohorivka, these remain unverified. Offensive operations continued near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian military operations continued in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area without any confirmed changes to the frontline. Claims of advancements by Russian forces north of Staromayorske remain unverified. Additional operations took place south of Velyka Novosilka near Urozhaine and Makarivka.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces carried out assaults in western Zaporizhia Oblast near Robotyne, Verbove, and Shcherbaky from July 3 to 4, with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Claims of a 500-meter advancement near Shcherbaky and Nesteryanka, including the seizure of three Ukrainian positions, are unverified.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces continued assaults near Krynky in Kherson Oblast and on nearby Dnipro River islands, with no confirmed frontline changes. Clashes are reportedly occurring near the Antonivsky Railway Bridge north of Oleshky, according to a Russian military blogger.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched drone and missile attacks on Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force intercepted 21 out of 22 drones launched from Kursk Oblast, targeting areas including Kyiv and Chernihiv. In Chernihiv, a drone strike disrupted power for nearly 6,000 residents. Additionally, a missile strike in Odesa Oblast targeted civilian port infrastructure, resulting in one death, seven injuries, and significant damage to the facilities.
Ukrainian officials have noted that Russian forces are updating their glide bombs for increased effectiveness in the Kharkiv area. These modernized bombs have already been used to intensify strikes and achieve some tactical successes at the frontline. Specifically, the strikes in Kharkiv City and surrounding regions involve FAB-500 glide bombs, now with ranges extending up to 80 kilometers.
Ukraine’s Allies
The US Department of Defense announced two measures to support Ukraine: a $2.2 billion purchase of US-produced air defense interceptors (PATRIOT and NASAMS missiles) for future delivery to Ukraine, and a $150 million aid package. The aid package includes various weapons and equipment such as HAWK missiles, HIMARS ammunition, artillery shells, anti-armor systems, and tactical vehicles. This marks the Biden Administration’s 60th equipment package for Ukraine since August 2021. These measures aim to enhance Ukraine’s air defense capabilities and provide continued military support.
Russia News
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) reportedly detained Colonel Artyom Gorodilov, commander of the 83rd Guards Airborne Assault Brigade, on July 3 on fraud charges. This follows reports of the brigade suffering heavy losses in the Kharkiv direction in June 2024. Gorodilov, who previously led the 234th Guards VDV Regiment implicated in the Bucha massacres, denies the charges. His detention comes after Ukrainian officials reported that Russian command attempted to withdraw elements of the 83rd VDV Brigade from Kharkiv due to significant losses. This situation highlights potential internal issues within Russian military leadership following battlefield setbacks. President Putin and Russian military command may be punishing Colonel Gorodilov for perceived incompetence in the Kharkiv direction, where his brigade suffered significant losses. This follows a pattern of Russian authorities arresting high-ranking military officers on seemingly unrelated criminal charges, such as the recent charges against former 58th Combined Arms Army Commander Major General Ivan Popov. Putin appears to tolerate low levels of incompetence for loyalty but uses criminal charges against officials who exceed acceptable levels of incompetence or insubordination.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairperson of the Russian Security Council, reported that approximately 190,000 Russians enlisted as contract soldiers in the first half of 2024. This statement was made during a Ministry of Defense meeting focused on military staffing. Medvedev highlighted a recruitment rate of 1,000 people per day and commended the Ministry for achieving its recruitment goals. Earlier in April, the Ministry had announced that over 100,000 individuals had signed up since the start of the year.
The Russian Ministry of Defense is working to integrate Russia’s irregular forces more formally. The Kremlin news agency TASS reported that the Russian State Duma is reviewing changes to military service laws. These amendments would allow servicemembers from the occupied regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson to count their previous service with Russian and proxy forces in Ukraine towards their combat veteran status. This move, which excludes those who served in the Ukrainian Armed Forces or committed crimes against Russia, marks a significant step in formalizing the role of pro-Russian irregular forces in Eastern Ukraine since 2014.
Russian media outlet Izvestia reported on July 1 that the Russian Ministry of Defense has upgraded the missile launchers on the Gremyashchiy-class corvettes to accommodate Zircon hypersonic missiles. Previously, these ships, including the Gremyashchiy currently with Russia’s Pacific Fleet, were only capable of firing Kalibr cruise missiles and Onyx supersonic missiles. The Provornyy, another corvette of the same class, has also received this upgrade and will join the Russian Navy after testing. Additionally, Russia plans to build four more Gremyashchiy-class corvettes within an unspecified timeframe.
Alexander Zakharov, General Director of Remdizel, announced to TASS that Russian forces are currently testing a new unmanned ground vehicle named “Zubilo.” This technology is of particular interest to Russian engineering troops for its potential to reduce personnel losses at the frontline.
The Russian Ministry of Defense released footage of a makeshift counter-drone vehicle, equipped with two machine guns, being used by the Russian Dnepr Grouping of Forces at an unspecified frontline location to combat drone threats.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairperson of the Russian Security Council, compared Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the American Civil War, likely aiming to engage American audiences on their national holiday. He inaccurately likened Russia to the Union and depicted Ukraine as analogous to the Confederacy. This statement coincides with the US Department of Defense’s announcement on July 3 of its sixtieth aid package to Ukraine, which Medvedev’s comments may be addressing.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org