Summary of the day: Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone strike against a Russian ammunition depot in Voronezh Oblast and a regimental command post in Belgorod Oblast, demonstrating their ability to disrupt Russian operations with Western-provided weapons. Ukrainian drone operators are improving their capabilities to intercept longer-range Russian drones mid-air. Russian forces made confirmed advances near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, while Ukrainian forces advanced north of Kharkiv City. Satellite imagery analysis suggests Russia has removed about 42 percent of its tanks from pre-war open-air storage since the invasion began.
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Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian forces are improving their ability to intercept Russian drones mid-air using first-person view (FPV) drones. This includes successful interceptions of Russian reconnaissance drones and loitering munitions. If deployed at scale, this capability could help Ukraine conserve its air defense resources for more significant targets while degrading Russia’s reconnaissance abilities. This development is part of an ongoing technological race between Ukrainian and Russian forces, with Ukraine’s ability to innovate and scale new technologies being crucial to offset Russia’s current material advantages.
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian electronic warfare system near Novoluhansk and a logistics center near Debaltseve on July 6. The logistics center reportedly stored tanks and ammunition. Both targets are in the Horlivka area.
Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed that Ukrainian forces launched five HIMARS rockets at occupied Melitopol on July 7. Rogov stated that Russian forces intercepted all rockets, but debris caused a fire in the northern part of the city. He shared footage allegedly showing smoke over Melitopol.
On July 6, Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk reported that recent Russian missile strikes on July 3 and July 6 targeted decoys at Dovhyntseve Airfield and Yuzhnye, not real Ukrainian military equipment.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative None
Ukrainian forces advanced northwest of Hlyboke, north of Kharkiv City, during recent counterattacks. They are reportedly conducting raids near Lyptsi and Tykhe to probe Russian defenses. Russian forces continued attacks near Lyptsi, Hlyboke, Vovchansk, and Starytsya. Russian sources claimed to have recaptured positions in central Vovchansk. Ukrainian special forces struck a Russian command post and ammunition depot near Hlyboke. Various Russian units, including elements of the Akhmat Spetsnaz, 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, and 83rd Airborne Brigade, are reportedly operating in different areas of the Kharkiv direction.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces reportedly advanced along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, with claims of progress near Makiivka, Pishchane, and south of Tabaivka. However, these claims remain unconfirmed. Russian operations continued in multiple locations along this line, including near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Stelmakhivka, Andriivka, Nevske, Terny, and Torske. Russian sources claimed to have destroyed a Ukrainian crossing over the Oskil River near Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Siversk direction, with no confirmed frontline changes. They attacked near Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, and Vyimka.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar on July 7, likely advancing to the eastern bank of the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal within the city. A Ukrainian brigade reported that the canal has become the de facto line of contact following their withdrawal from Kanal Microraion. Russian sources claimed advances between Kalynivka and Kanal Microraion, though unconfirmed. Attacks continued in multiple areas around Chasiv Yar. Ukrainian officials reported heavy Russian artillery and air strikes on southern Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk
Russian forces advanced in the Toretsk direction, making confirmed progress within southern Pivnichne. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have seized the Chyhari neighborhood in southern Pivdenne. Russian sources reported advances near Druzhba and within Niu York, with claims of almost completely capturing Yurivka, though unconfirmed.
Avdiivka
Russian forces reportedly advanced northwest of Avdiivka, claiming to have captured Yevhenivka and advanced towards Novoselivka Persha, though these claims remain unconfirmed. Russian offensive operations continued in multiple locations north, northwest, and west of Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down a Russian Su-25 aircraft in the Avdiivka direction.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued attacks west and southwest of Donetsk City, with fighting near Krasnohorivka, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane. No confirmed frontline changes were reported.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
In the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area, Russian forces attacked near Makarivka.
Zaporizhia Line
Positional engagements continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast, with no confirmed frontline changes. Fighting occurred near Robotyne, Novoandriivka, Verbove, and Mala Tokmachka.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Combat persisted in eastern Kherson Oblast without any shifts in the frontline positions.
Ukraine News
Russian forces attacked Ukraine with two Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 13 Shahed-136/131 drones, all launched from Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian defenses successfully shot down all drones over several regions. Additionally, Russian missiles targeted Pavlohrad. Russia also claimed to have destroyed two Patriot air defense systems and a radar station near Yuzhnye, Odesa Oblast, and released footage supporting this claim.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on a Russian ammunition depot in Sergeevka, Voronezh Oblast. The depot reportedly contained various missiles, ammunition for tanks and artillery, and small arms rounds. Geolocated footage showed explosions and secondary detonations near Morozovka. The Voronezh Oblast Governor claimed Russian air defenses destroyed several Ukrainian drones, with debris causing a fire and explosions at a warehouse. NASA data detected unusual heat signatures near Sergeevka.
Ukrainian forces successfully struck a Russian regimental command post in Nekhoteevka, Belgorod Oblast, in late June 2024. Satellite imagery confirms significant damage to the building. The strike, likely conducted with a French-made precision-guided bomb, demonstrates Ukraine’s ability to disrupt Russian operations using Western-provided weapons. The command post’s location suggests its involvement in Russian offensives north of Kharkiv City. This attack highlights the potential impact of allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons against military targets within Russia.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Open-source researchers have found that since the start of the invasion in February 2022, Russia has removed about 42% of its tanks, totaling approximately 2,500, from pre-war open-air storage. The removal rate was about 115 tanks per month initially but dropped to around 60 tanks per month from July 2023 to July 2024. The decrease in the removal rate is attributed to the declining quality of the remaining tanks in storage. It is assessed that Russia’s recent tank “production” figures largely represent refurbished tanks from storage, not newly manufactured ones.
Russian regions are boosting financial incentives to attract contract soldiers. On July 6, the Head of Dagestan, Sergei Melikov, announced a fivefold increase in the region’s payment to contract soldiers, raising it to 500,000 rubles (approximately $5,700). With additional contributions from the federal government and local authorities, a contract soldier now receives a one-time total of about 800,000 rubles (around $9,100).
The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video showing their Northern Grouping of Forces using new Irbis radar stations in northern Kharkiv Oblast. These radars, with a range of up to 150 kilometers, are being used to detect Ukrainian missiles, drones, mortars, and artillery, enhancing Russia’s artillery accuracy and counterattack capabilities.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
A Russian milblogger criticized Chechen “Akhmat” Spetsnaz forces, calling them “TikTokers” and suggesting they weren’t contributing to operations in the Kharkiv direction. The milblogger later released an apology video, likely under coercion from “Akhmat” forces. This incident highlights the unprofessionalism within the Russian military and the extreme measures taken to suppress criticism. It also demonstrates the Kremlin’s recent efforts to limit criticism of the military in the Russian information space, with “Akhmat” forces taking direct action to protect their reputation.
A Russian military blogger with Kremlin ties minimized the growing threat of the Islamic State’s Wilayat Khorasan branch in Russia, despite a notable rise in major terrorist attacks by the group since March 2024. Additionally, this blogger echoed criticisms from a Ukrainian official regarding the Ukrainian Air Force command.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org