Summary of the day: In a significant development, Western and US officials have assessed that Ukrainian forces will likely remain on the defensive for the next six months, potentially delaying a large-scale counteroffensive until 2025. Despite this, Ukrainian troops are still attempting limited counterattacks in specific areas. The Kremlin continues to show reluctance towards peace negotiations that don’t align with its demands, while Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov reiterated threats to the US in a recent phone call with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. In terms of military aid, the UK has reportedly restricted Ukraine’s use of Storm Shadow missiles for strikes within Russia, while the US announced a new $225 million aid package. On the ground, Russian forces have made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border. Interestingly, reports suggest Russian infantry units are assaulting Ukrainian trenches in single-file columns due to extensive minefields and inadequate training. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with the head of the occupied Zaporizhia Oblast to discuss infrastructure projects, signaling ongoing efforts to consolidate control in occupied territories.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
The Kremlin is trying to frame Turkey’s interest in joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a sign of discord within NATO. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov highlighted “contradictions” in Turkey’s efforts to join the SCO while being a NATO member. This narrative appears to be an attempt by Russia to exploit potential divisions among NATO allies, particularly regarding Turkey’s geopolitical positioning between Western and Eastern alliances.
A Chinese military logistics delegation has arrived in Minsk, Belarus, for a three-day visit from July 11 to 13. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense reported that the delegation will discuss logistics cooperation with Belarusian forces. This visit indicates ongoing military collaboration between China and Belarus, potentially strengthening their defense ties.
Peace Talks
Russia has rejected participation in the upcoming Global Peace Summit, with Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin dismissing Ukraine’s peace formula as an “ultimatum” and “absolute dead-end.” The Kremlin insists it won’t accept any peace negotiations unless Ukraine and the West fully capitulate to its demands. This stance comes despite ongoing Ukrainian efforts to build international support for future talks.
Ukrainian President Zelensky met with Turkish President Erdogan at the NATO summit, announcing plans for a food security and navigation conference in Turkey as part of the June 2024 Peace Summit. Zelensky thanked Erdogan for supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty, while Erdogan mentioned efforts to restart the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Despite Turkey’s attempts to position itself as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine, the Kremlin has consistently rejected this possibility.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian forces are expected to remain defensive for the next six months, with a large-scale counteroffensive unlikely until 2025, according to Western and US officials. Limited Ukrainian counterattacks continue in select areas. Russia is unlikely to make significant gains during this period. The situation depends on Western aid and Ukraine’s ability to deploy more forces to the frontline. Putin’s strategy focuses on gradual advances rather than rapid operational gains.
Ukraine is forming new brigades to contest Russian advances. Western aid is crucial for equipping these forces and determining when Ukraine can launch counteroffensives. Recent aid has helped stabilize key frontline areas, allowing for successful local counterattacks. As more assistance arrives, Ukraine may increase its counteroffensive capabilities. Meanwhile, Russia continues offensive pressure to deplete Ukrainian resources and prevent them from accumulating for larger operations.
Ukraine has successfully conducted large-scale counteroffensives but may also benefit from smaller, targeted operations. These could help degrade Russia’s initiative and reduce pressure on Ukrainian forces sooner. Consistent Western aid remains crucial for Ukraine to liberate occupied territories and counter Putin’s goals. Future Ukrainian operations may involve a series of smaller counteroffensives rather than single large-scale efforts, potentially spanning late 2024 and 2025.
Reports suggest the UK has not authorized Ukraine to use British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles against targets within Russia, contrary to previous statements. UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy indicated the government is considering lifting restrictions on Western-provided weapons used against Russian territory. The exact policy remains unclear, with conflicting reports from various UK officials and media sources. Ukraine’s President Zelensky claimed he received permission to use Storm Shadows in Russia, but UK sources deny this. The situation highlights the complex and evolving nature of Western military aid to Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a strike near Mariupol on July 12, targeting a Russian military airfield. Smoke was visible in the area, and both Russian and Ukrainian sources confirmed the attack. Some speculate that a Russian S-300 air defense system near the airport may have been the target. However, the extent of damage and specific results of the strike remain unconfirmed. This attack represents a significant Ukrainian effort to strike Russian military assets in occupied territory.
A Russian source claims that Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, commander of the VDV and “Dnepr” Grouping of Forces, was injured in a Ukrainian strike on a headquarters in late June 2024. The attack reportedly occurred near Henichesk in occupied Kherson Oblast, possibly using HIMARS. While this information has been circulated by Russian sources, it remains unverified independently. If true, it would represent a significant strike against high-level Russian military leadership.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative None
Fighting continues near Kharkiv City without significant frontline changes. Russian forces reportedly maintain positions south of the Vovcha River in Vovchansk. Ukrainian forces are said to conduct regular small-scale assaults near Hlyboke, which Russian units repel. The Ukrainian General Staff reports ongoing Russian offensive operations near Hlyboke, Vovchansk, and Starytsya. A Ukrainian spokesperson noted that Russian assault groups in the area include volunteers from African countries and former Soviet states. The situation remains fluid with both sides engaged in localized offensive and defensive actions.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, with no confirmed frontline changes. Attacks were reported in several areas northeast and southeast of Kupyansk, as well as northwest and west of Kreminna. A Ukrainian servicemember noted that Russian forces are attacking in small squads of three to seven people. Despite ongoing offensive actions, the situation appears to be relatively stable with no significant territorial gains reported for either side.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Siversk, targeting areas to the northeast, east, southeast, and south of the city. Despite these efforts, there were no confirmed advances. A Russian source claimed a 1.55-kilometer advance northwest of Rozdolivka, but this remains unverified. The situation around Siversk remains contested, with Russian forces maintaining pressure on multiple fronts but without significant confirmed territorial gains.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, with attacks reported in and around the city. Despite these efforts, no confirmed advances were made. A Ukrainian military spokesperson noted that Russian forces have shifted their focus from Chasiv Yar to the Toretsk direction. Russian sources claimed to have struck a Ukrainian ammunition depot near Kostyantynivka. The situation remains fluid, with Russian forces maintaining pressure in the area but without significant territorial gains.
Toretsk
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Toretsk direction, with no confirmed frontline changes. Russian sources claim advances within Niu York and progress towards Toretsk from the east and south. Attacks were also reported near Toretsk and in the surrounding areas of Zalizne and Pivnichne. Despite these ongoing operations, the overall frontline situation remains relatively stable in this sector.
Avdiivka
Russian forces have made a significant advance northwest of Avdiivka, reaching the northeastern outskirts of Novoselivka Persha. This area is strategically important as it’s the last major Ukrainian defensive position east of the Vovcha River. Russian units from various brigades are attacking Novoselivka Persha from multiple directions. Ongoing Russian attacks are also reported in several other locations northwest and west of Avdiivka. The situation remains dynamic, with Russian forces applying pressure on multiple fronts in this sector.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued attacks west and southwest of Donetsk City, targeting several settlements including Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane. Despite these ongoing operations, no confirmed advances were reported. Russian units are engaged in the fighting, particularly in Krasnohorivka. The situation remains fluid, with Russian forces maintaining pressure in this area without significant territorial gains.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces have advanced in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area, reaching central Urozhaine south of Velyka Novosilka. While they haven’t fully captured the settlement, Russian forces were seen raising a flag there. Russian units, including tank and special forces, are reportedly involved in the fighting. Russian forces also conducted limited attacks south of Hulyaipole. This advance represents a notable shift in the frontline in this sector, though the situation remains fluid.
Zaporizhia Line
Ongoing battles continued near Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka in western Zaporizhia Oblast, with no significant changes to the frontline reported. Russian airborne units are said to be active in the Robotyne area. The situation remains stable in this sector, with both sides engaged in positional warfare without major territorial shifts.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Ongoing military engagements continued on the eastern bank of the Kherson Oblast, particularly near Krynky. The situation remains largely unchanged, with both sides maintaining their positions in this area.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a significant air attack against Ukraine, using both missiles and drones. The main target was reportedly an airfield in Starokostiantyniv, Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Ukrainian forces claim to have intercepted all five Kh-101 cruise missiles and 11 out of 19 Shahed drones. The remaining eight drones were “locationally lost,” possibly serving as decoys to strain Ukrainian air defenses. The attacks covered multiple regions, demonstrating Russia’s continued capability to conduct widespread aerial operations against Ukraine.
Russian forces attacked Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast with five D-30SN glide bombs. These strikes hit private and commercial buildings, according to local official Yuriy Tretyak. This incident highlights Russia’s use of precision-guided munitions in its ongoing campaign against Ukrainian civilian and economic targets.
Ukraine’s Allies
The US Department of Defense has announced a new $225 million military aid package for Ukraine. This package includes a variety of defensive and offensive equipment, such as a Patriot air defense battery, anti-aircraft missiles, artillery rounds, and rocket system ammunition. The aid aims to bolster Ukraine’s military capabilities in its ongoing conflict with Russia, providing both air defense systems and ground-based weaponry.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
The UN General Assembly has passed a resolution demanding Russia’s immediate withdrawal from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and its return to full Ukrainian control. Russia dismissed the resolution as “politicized” and an “ultimatum,” with only eight of its allies voting against it. This broad international support contradicts Russian claims that the resolution lacks widespread backing. Russian officials continue to frame Ukrainian positions as ultimatums, likely to justify their refusal to engage in peace negotiations and to support their ongoing war in Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with the head of the occupied Zaporizhia Oblast administration. They discussed social and infrastructure projects in the region, including the construction of camps for Ukrainian children and medical facilities. Putin emphasized security as his main concern but also claimed to support agricultural and industrial development in the occupied area. This meeting highlights Russia’s ongoing efforts to consolidate control over occupied Ukrainian territories.
Russian occupation authorities are ramping up efforts to militarize and indoctrinate Ukrainian youth in occupied territories. These initiatives include cadet classes in Skadovsk and Berdyansk, Wagner Group-led patriotic events in Crimea, and Chechen-run courses on military and cultural issues in Luhansk. The launch of the “Luhansk Character” project, reminiscent of Soviet-era youth organizations, and plans for a “patriotic education” bill in occupied Kherson Oblast further illustrate this trend. These activities aim to instill Russian nationalism and culture in Ukrainian children, potentially eroding Ukrainian identity in occupied regions. The scale of these efforts is substantial, with reports suggesting thousands of children are already involved. This comprehensive approach underscores Russia’s long-term strategy to integrate occupied Ukrainian territories into its cultural and political sphere.
Russian occupation authorities in Kherson Oblast have sent 59 Ukrainian children to Volgograd Oblast, Russia, with support from the ruling United Russia party. Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials successfully returned seven children and their families from occupied Kherson to Ukrainian-controlled territory. Ukraine’s Human Rights Ombudsman is working with the International Criminal Court to issue arrest warrants for Russian officials involved in these child deportations. This situation highlights the ongoing issue of child displacement in the conflict, with both sides taking actions related to the movement of children across occupied territories.
Russia News
Russian Defense Minister Belousov and US Secretary of Defense Austin had their second phone call in three weeks on July 12. Belousov repeated vague threats about escalation and security risks, likely aimed at discouraging US support for Ukraine. This is part of Russia’s ongoing strategy to influence Western decision-makers. Austin emphasized the importance of maintaining communication channels during the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. These calls reflect Russia’s consistent use of ambiguous threats to try to reduce Western aid to Ukraine.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian infantry units are reportedly attacking Ukrainian trenches in single-file columns, contrary to standard military tactics. This approach is attributed to extensive Ukrainian minefields and inadequate assault training for Russian troops. A Russian military journal suggested this tactic might be surprisingly effective in wooded areas. However, a Russian military blogger argues that it’s a result of poor training, low soldier confidence, and the presence of minefields. The blogger emphasized the need for better training to improve Russian assault tactics. This situation highlights ongoing challenges in Russian military operations and training.
Ukraine’s military intelligence reported that a modernized Russian deep-sea vehicle, AS-36, was damaged in the Norwegian Sea on July 1. The incident occurred when the vehicle collided with a rescue ship during its launch. This accident has forced Russian authorities to postpone further testing of the vehicle while they assess the damage and plan repairs. The event highlights potential issues in Russian naval operations and equipment testing procedures.
A Russian source claims that Russian forces used an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian naval drone in the Black Sea. This represents a potential new application of FPV drone technology, which both sides have been using increasingly to target other aerial drones. Meanwhile, Ukrainian operators are reportedly improving their ability to intercept long-range Russian drones mid-air using FPV drones. These developments highlight the evolving drone warfare tactics in the conflict, with both sides adapting their strategies in response to new technologies and capabilities.
Russia’s Allies
India’s state-run oil refineries are in talks with Russia for a long-term oil import deal, following recent meetings between Prime Minister Modi and President Putin. This move reflects strengthening energy ties between the two countries. While negotiation details like payment currency are still being worked out, private Indian refineries may join later. This development comes after a brief period where Indian companies had refused Russian oil due to US sanctions, but some have since resumed purchases. The potential deal underscores India’s efforts to secure energy supplies amid shifting global dynamics.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
The Kremlin is intensifying its control over Russia’s online information space through several new measures. These include requiring phone numbers for social media registration, cracking down on anonymous accounts and gray market SIM cards, and designating small, anonymous Telegram channels as foreign agents. The government is also considering rules for channels with over 1,000 daily viewers to provide identifying information. These actions are aimed at encouraging self-censorship, consolidating control over internet infrastructure, and demonstrating that anonymous criticism of the government will not be tolerated. Overall, these moves reflect the Kremlin’s growing efforts to tighten its grip on online discourse in Russia, limiting the spread of dissenting voices and information that may challenge official narratives.
Russian authorities are reportedly slowing down access to certain Western social media platforms, including WhatsApp and YouTube. This throttling appears to be a deliberate strategy to discourage Russians from using these sites, possibly in preparation for future bans. While officials claim technical issues are causing slow speeds, sources suggest it’s intentional government action. The move is part of a broader effort to control internet access in Russia, with the government using specialized systems to limit access to foreign platforms. Although there are rumors of a potential YouTube ban in September 2024, the Kremlin has denied these reports. This situation highlights Russia’s ongoing efforts to restrict and control its citizens’ access to foreign information sources.
The Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War has warned that Russian intelligence services are creating fake public organizations to spread misinformation about Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs). These groups are also reportedly attempting to manipulate and extract personal information from the families of Ukrainian POWs. This tactic appears to be part of a broader information warfare strategy, potentially aimed at undermining Ukrainian morale and gathering intelligence.
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova has made unsubstantiated claims that Ukraine plans to destroy the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant and the Kaniv Reservoir. The Ukrainian Center for Combatting Disinformation dismissed these allegations, stating they are part of a Russian information campaign aimed at causing panic among Ukrainians. This incident highlights ongoing information warfare tactics in the conflict, with Russia attempting to spread fear and uncertainty through baseless accusations.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org